The All-Everything Teams

Welcome to the 2011 Fantasy Football Season. Please take a moment to thank whatever deity inspires you that the NFL owners and players figured things out. I shudder to think where we fantasy football fans would end up without our fix. I actually conceptualized a Canadian Football fantasy league out of premature desperation.

Thankfully, enacting such an extreme measure proved unnecessary. The Peyton Manning injury alone, and its subsequent fantasy football ramifications, are enough to keep me going nonstop for about a week.

As usual, I'll be posting on Saturday mornings throughout the season, giving the junkies a little last thing to absorb in the down time between Friday's injury reports and the actual games. In general, I'll aim to share periphery observations, sneaky plays and longer-term fliers instead of just regurgitating the key fantasy news that is available on hundreds of other sites.

And for my first entry of 2011, I'll skip all the hard news as usual and just give you some hard (and heartily rationalized) predictions. At the end of the season, I can look back and laugh, cry, or gloat.

The All Mid-Round Team
These are the guys that will not drafted among the tops at their position, but represent the best chance to produce as such in 2011 without carrying the hefty price tag. Feel great about getting them in Rounds 4-6.
QB: Matt Ryan
RBs: Felix Jones and Beanie Wells
WRs: Julio Jones, Mario Manningham and Kenny Britt
TE: Jimmy Graham
Best mid-round value: Graham. The guy is a baller. He's huge, and Brees loves him. Even with the ball spread around, he's the most likely to get critical looks, and the most likely to have a giant game. Runner-up: Felix Jones.

The All Reserve Team
These are guys likely to be drafted as reserves that could probably be played safely in any week this season. In my mind, the best just-outside-the-starters to own in terms of insurance and plug-and-play vs. most opponents. Superior depth guys.
QB: Eli Manning
RBs: Mike Tolbert and Brandon Jacobs
WRs: Emmanuel Sanders, Lance Moore and Lee Evans
TE: Brandon Pettigrew
Best reserve value: Tolbert. Passing downs AND goalline carries on that team? No doubt he ends up with more fantasy points than Mathews this year. Decent chance to be a kind of lite version of Peyton Hillis this year. Runner-up: Jacobs.

The All Under-the-Radar Team
I can't believe I'm not hearing more buzz about these guys as viable fantasy plays. Not necessarily as starters from Day One, but depth guys with pretty good potential to fill a gap if needed. Don't forget about them.
QB: Kerry Collins
RBs: Willis McGahee and Dexter McCluster
WRs: Nate Burleson, Harry Douglas and Antonio Brown
TE: Lance Kendricks
Best forgotten value: Burleson. The prime beneficiary if Stafford and Megatron remain healthy. He's going to be open enough for Stafford to find him. A lot.

Runner-up: Collins, who had four real strong fantasy games to close out last season despite being on a team with basically one legitimate receiving threat. He now has at least five. Call me crazy, but I like his chances. Granted, he's more likely to look like Eli than Peyton, but I'd much rather play him than a guy like Cutler. And if Manning is indeed out for a while, his chemistry with the receivers and familiarity with the offense only grows. He knows what he's doing and represents a perfect stopgap solution for the Colts and for fantasy owners.

The All Watch List Team
These guys will probably go undrafted in most leagues, but mark my words, they'll be in someone's active lineup at some point in every league before the season is through.
QB: Blaine Gabbert
RBs: Delone Carter and Montario Hardesty
WRs: Arrelious Benn, Titus Young and Denarius Moore
TE: Jared Cook
Best watch list value: Cook. Mostly due to a lack of options, Cook has been and will again be lined up as a wideout. He's big and fast and has good hands and will probably lead the Titans in receptions. Runner-up: Benn.

The All Dynasty Team
These guys are probably not viable options for this year, but if you have available dynasty stashes for 2012 and beyond, go for it.
QB: Cam Newton
RBs: Taiwan Jones and Jacquizz Rodgers
WRs: Demariyus Thomas, Randall Cobb and Vincent Brown
TE: Evan Moore.
Best dynasty value: Vincent Brown. Last year was a great example of what virtually anyone can do in a pass-heavy offense. Possibly Rivers' No. 2 target in 2012. Runner-up: Newton.

The All Overdraft Team
These guys are my predictions for biggest fantasy busts in 2011 based on their average draft position. Let someone else take their chances.
QB: Matt Schaub
RBs: Jahvid Best and Knowshon Moreno
WRs: Brandon Marshall, Brandon Lloyd and Chad Ochocinco
TE: Tony Gonzalez.
Worst average draft position value: Ochocinco. Too many offensive options in New England, so he'll have to get used to being just another cog, and perhaps even primarily a decoy. I think it smells a lot like Randy Moss in 2010.

Runner-up: Best, the rare beast whose fate could be anywhere from finishing as the No. 1 fantasy RB to suffering a season-ending injury in Week One. The 3.2 yards per carry last year and the chances of him getting pulled at the goalline in order to protect him make him absolutely not worth the risk. Difficult to determine if his upside or his downside is greater, so he's just as likely to lose a week for you as to win it. Why bother?

My predictions for the top 5 fantasy producers at each position at season's end (in order):
QB: Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Vick, Ryan (longshot sneak-in: Stafford)
RB: AP, Charles, Rice, McFadden, Foster (longshot sneak-in: Steven Jackson)
WR: Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, Mike Wallace (longshot sneak-in: Dez Bryant)
TE: Gates, Graham, Finley, Witten, Daniels (longshot sneak-in: Kendricks)
Don't laugh at the Ryan and Stafford mentions. These two have Aaron-Rodgers-breakout written all over them.


Early Tips and Observations, a small sampling of the kinds of blog entries to expect:

1. Did you happen to notice Pittsburgh's fantasy playoff schedule? In weeks 13-17, they get Cincinnati and St. Louis at home, at San Francisco, and Cleveland twice. Sure, you'll start the usual offensive guys with a little extra confidence, but the Steelers DST alone might win you the title there. I don't care if James Harrison is only 70-80 percent right now, he should be fine in December. And St. Louis as an upstart threat? Sure, but no dome team is going to excel in Pittsburgh at that time of year. The highest rated DST in most weeks gets a massive boost at the season's most critical spot. Easily worth an early eighth round pick and I'd even reach for them late in the seventh if there wasn't another clear buy there. If you've already drafted and missed 'em, buy relatively low while you still can. This is set up to be the greatest stretch of defensive TDs in history.

2. Todd Haley strikes again. The mastermind behind giving Thomas Jones more touches than Jamaal Charles last year plays his starters deep into meaningless preseason game No. 4, and subsequently loses his tight end (and almost his quarterback.) I have no idea what he'll do with the backfield this year, but I'm on board with everyone else that Charles is due for a monster season. I'm actually so down on Jones (probably losing at least some goalline touches to McClain) that I'm going rapidly up on Dexter McCluster. I think the loss of Moeaki only helps McCluster as another random receiving threat to plug in on the kinds of passing plays that would have suited Moeaki before. He's a wildcard, and despite suggestions to the contrary, I think he takes plenty of snaps as a wideout this year. He just got RB eligibility to go with his WR eligibility in ESPN leagues, making him a perfect possibility to be this year's Danny Woodhead, easily as good as most WR3s and a fine bye week play at RB, taking up only one roster spot instead of two. Love it! And if Charles happens to go down......

3. Apparently I wasn't the only one that connected the dots when Detroit picked up Keiland Williams off waivers from Washington. Latest report has the hulking fullback picking up a lot of the plays originally designed for Mike Leshoure, including the goalline plunges. Can't complain about that role in that offense. Worth a flier at the start of the season, although he may or may not excel quickly in that opportunity.

Good luck to everyone this season, and I hope to see you guys here every Saturday!