Last week, I pointed out that Ryan Fitzpatrick had had three strong weeks in a row. I also said he shouldn't be added or played in spite of that.
Well, I was wrong.
Coming off an absolutely MONSTER week (4TDs and nearly 400 yards passing at Baltimore), it's hard not to rocket him to the top of the waiver list for not just owners of injured and bye QBs, but for EVERYONE. He's got a very good fantasy playoff schedule including home games against Cleveland and New England. Even if you aren't going to use him, you can certainly trade him. Especially to a panicking Romo or Favre owner. He's got the numbers to sell high.
Jon Kitna initially didn't look very sharp in relief of Romo on Monday Night, but he got better. And who would have thought it would take Kitna to turn Dez Bryant into a superstar? Miles Austin may see a drop, but Bryant, as he has been all season, is ready to explode regardless of who's under center. Kitna may be more likely to go to an underneath outlet, meaning Jason Witten and Felix Jones could increase their targets. Even Roy Williams, recently morphed into a short-route endzone guy, still has plenty of potential. Kitna had plenty of fantasy relevance a few seasons ago in Detroit. He's an oldie, but a goodie. He has Jacksonville in Week 8, so he's fine as a bye week replacement and a temporary plug for Romo owners.
Tavaris Jackson is a different story. If Favre sits at any point, Jackson becomes a possible play, but is a major risk. He's got plenty of good targets, but has never shown an ability to do good things with them. From a fantasy perspective, Sage Rosenfels would have been a much more desireable alternative but Jackson was obviously the better fit for the program. I wouldn't expect much.
The guy to grab if he's out there is Matt Stafford. He's back, and back to what many still expect to be his breakout season. He's got five solid receiving options on almost every play, and he's got a dynamic running back to discourage the linebackers from focusing on coverage. His upside is nearly limitless - he could easily be a top 10 guy the rest of the way. I have almost as many complimentary words about Josh Freeman.
The question on a lot of people's minds this week is what the heck is going to happen in Indianapolis, where fantasy afterthoughts become studs. In rapid succession, the Colts lost Dallas Clark, Austin Collie and Joseph Addai. No expert is willing to clearly pick Blair White or Anthony Gonzalez or Jacob Tamme over the other as the new Clark/Collie slot machine, but whoever it is will be a big asset in the bye weeks and usable beyond. I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see all three find the end zone at least once each over the next three weeks, but it's impossible to guess which one when. If I had to bet my life savings, I'd go with Gonzo over the others (as articulated last week) but I wouldn't exactly be comfortable waiting to see where the ball lands. As for the running game, it looks like a combination of Donald Brown and Mike Hart can be expected, crippling any real value of either in what is designed as a passing offense. Life savings - I go with Hart. Brown is a Gonzo-esque injury risk while Hart has proven in limited trials that he can carry the load and will likely be the first choice at the goalline. If Brown sits out, Hart becomes a top 20 play.
The other unexpected possible bonanza play this week is Jonathan Stewart. Some are even talking Top 10, but I'm not buying. With DeAngelo Williams likely out, JStew is in line to start and dominate carries. People know his elite talent, and what he did with it in short-term full-time duties last year, but he's done zilch in 2010, and the Panthers' entire running game has been stagnant. It doesn't add up to worth the risk if you have a more reliable (albeit boring) option. Obviously, he's worth playing over the usual bye week guys, but don't go benching your normal starters for him unless there's a clear separation.
I had my bonehead move of the year (there's always at least one) when I dropped Kenny Britt just before last week. I looked it as:
1) inconsistency/drops
2) no Vince Young at QB
3) possible discipline due to the bar fight
4) facing top defense San Diego in Week 8, followed by a bye.
Figured he'd still be out there after, when I'd be more likely to play a risk/reward WR. But why roster him until then? Because he's a beast, that's why! You just never know when one of these guys is going to show up, which makes it especially difficult to wait around for them. When they do.... oh baby! Tough to decide if it's more frustrating to have kept a guy forever that never pans out, or to have briefly speculated on and then dropped a guy that pans out immediately thereafter.
As a sidenote here, I'll place part of the blame on Rotoworld, which is bipolar on some guys like Britt (he's great, he sucks, he's great, he sucks) and ridiculously loyal to their original assessment on others. I actually blame myself for listening to them 90 percent of the time, but I must also say they are the best service I've seen so far. I'm planning a later column to offer my opinion on several fantasy web sites, but in brief, Rotoworld is my favorite. My apologies to the CBS guys, but that one's a disaster in terms of insight/reliability. And ESPN's projections seem to be more designed to generate confusion and debate more than to deliver fair expectations, sometimes not even matching up with their own textual "What they're saying..." And yet, I'm still a sucker for being disappointed when my projected win fails to materialize. Admittedly, it's a heck of a lot easier than writing my own projections!
Man Crush Update:
Chris Ivory: The more pessimistic the outlook on Pierre Thomas, the better it is for Chris Ivory. PT is now back in a walking boot and on crutches, and is tentatively expected to return in Week 11. I'll believe it when I see it. Ivory hasn't been great outside of one week, but as he gets more comfortable, he'll get better. The bigger problem is actually the New Orleans offense as a whole, which hasn't been the machine it has been in the past. There are definitely fewer scoring opportunities.
Danny Woodhead: Quiet week at San Diego, but the Chargers have the stingiest yardage defense in the league. I still love him as the ultimate fantasy dream: a dual threat with dual positional eligibility. Unfortunately, his remaining matches in the bye weeks including two more tough opponents in Minnesota and Pittsburgh. After that, his matchups improve, but his possible fantasy usage will be somewhat diminished.
James Starks: Looks like I'll have to eat my words on this one, but there's still a chance, albeit significantly slimmer. He may not be ready to contribute this year after all.
Saturday, October 30, 2010
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Gonzo for Gonzo
The middle of the bye weeks are tough enough to deal with without injuries. Ironically though, the injuries actually make more viable plays available on the waiver wire.
A gold mine of high upside wide receivers flooded the market this week, making it relatively easy to roll the dice on one if you're short. The question is, which one?
In San Diego, for example. If Floyd sits out as expected, Patrick Crayton seems like the logical acquisition, but Craig "Buster" Davis could easily be the guy. With a poor pass defense in town, you could plug in Lance Moore, Robert Meachem or Devery Henderson and hope for five or more targets or the jackpot long TD. Jason Avant is startable while Desean Jackson recovers, but how startable?
If you're looking for something that may last a little longer, New England showed Deion Branch still has life left. It did take until the fourth quarter, but against a terrific pass defense. Anyone left behind in Seattle has potential, and at least for the moment it looks as though Mike Williams is back on top, though it would be difficult to truly count on him. And the surprise of the week, Danario Alexander, makes his case as the new Mark Clayton (though not quite Miles Austin.) Frankly, the way Sam Bradford seems to be handling his first year, anyone with any potential there immediately gets a little extra bump up. (Bradford himself is an incredible hold in Dynasty leagues.) But I'm a little hesitant on Alexander anyway. Four catches on five looks doesn't exactly translate to a new favorite target. (Granted, the flow of the game took Alexander out of the equation in the second half so he could have been good for much more.) He's a huge injury risk with major past knee problems. But his size, speed and monster final collegiate season can't be ignored. Neither can Friday's news that Mardy Gilyard may not play Sunday, increasing Alexander's opportunities. He simultaneously represents the second biggest upside and second biggest downside of this week's waiver wire WRs going forward.
The boom or bust category is led by Anthony Gonzalez, sure to be very high on waiver claims next week. Only the fact that the Colts are on a bye is preventing everyone in the world from adding him now, and in many leagues he has already been grabbed. He has the pedigree and the hype as a first round pick in 2007, so management will do everything to give him as many chances as possible. In his fourth year with the program, he obviously knows the system and has played extensively in it. Injuries and inconsistent play have plagued him as multiple guys have lined up and passed him on the depth chart. But just as he's returning to health this year, the Colts lose three prime targets in Austin Collie, Dallas Clark and Joseph Addai. Those three have combined for 99 or the Colts' 171 receptions through six games. Someone has to catch those, and Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon (a superior trade target right now) can't do it all. The stars could not have aligned better for Gonzalez, the most natural slot receiver left to see the underneath targets that were going toward Clark and Collie. We'll see what he does with it (let's hope he stays healthy), but no waiver wire wideout is entering anywhere close to as favorable a situation.
Running back is significantly thinner, and will only get worse with six teams on byes in Weeks 8 and 9. Plan ahead, as you should with your WRs as well. (Plug-and-play is OK for QB, TE, DST, and especially K.) If Danny Woodhead is still out there for any reason, grab him and play him as needed. Double-digit fantasy points may be a fluke, but not when it's three weeks in a row. (He had 115 yards from scrimmage last week. Against Baltimore!) As mentioned in the last column, he has RB AND WR eligibility in most leagues. Chris Ivory had his coming out party in Week 6, and now is on everyone's want list. Probably too late to get him once this column is published, but it looks as though he will have life even after PT and Bush return, as suggested. The jury will likely be out until later this season on Green Bay's James Starks, and it could be tough to gamble on him before then, but he certainly has upside. (Seems like I'm referring back to these guys a lot, so I'll include a separate section in my next column: Man Crush Update.) Emergency options include LeGarrette Blount, Javon Ringer, and surprisingly, Derrick Ward, who's been ticketed for a bigger share in Houston. Look for one series every few, and even perhaps a goalline carry or two in each game. That ain't bad given the alternatives. And if for any reason Donald Brown was dropped in your league, pick him up immediately, bye or no. Addai is out, so Brown is now the present as well as the future (and apparently healthy). Mike Hart is the lesser option, but he's a proven gamer and may still may get the goalline, a potential bonanza in Indy. I'd play him over Barber against the same opponent.
And despite the bizarre rash of tight end injuries, it's still a deep spot. Jacob Tamme inherits Dallas Clark's gig, but I don't like his chances nearly as much as Gonzalez'. He's just one of a gaggle of guys that may or may not do it for you in a given week. None are Dallas Clark or Jermichael Finley, of course, but five short receptions and a glance or two in the end zone should be good enough to get you by indefinitely. Even Antonio Gates owners have a potential late-game-time-decision replacement in John Carlson. He's only 20 percent owned in ESPN leagues, averages near five points per game, and is home against Arizona, as favorable a match as you can get. Just beware of your opponent grabbing him before you do! (My advice: Grab Carlson now, and drop him for a better stash from the late games or byes if Gates is active. Better safe than sorry.)
And one of my favorite play-and-hold guys for this week: Josh Freeman. He's had three strong weeks, one average (last week against the Saints' stingy pass defense) and one poor (I grant him a Mulligan against Pittsburgh.) This week, he's home against St. Louis. Schaub and Manning owners could do plenty worse. And if you think you can handle it, hold him for the fantasy playoffs. Are you ready for this?: Week 14 at Washington, Weeks 15-16 at home against Detroit and Seattle. I give him at least top 8 status each of those weeks, and a top 8 draft spot next year. Tampa Bay has virtually no running game (Freeman may be their best runner), Mike Williams is for real, and Arrelious Benn is in the wings. This season is Freeman's coming-out party. He'll still have his share of stinkers because he's still young, but his upside is higher than any other unestablished QB.
Don't go crazy, but I just wanted to point this out: Ryan Fitzpatrick (yes, Ryan Fitzpatrick) has a 7-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio in three games since taking over as starter in Buffalo. Three straight strong fantasy starts. His passing yardage ain't anything special, but he had seven rushes for 74 yards (against the Jets, no less) in Week 5. Again, don't go crazy. Don't add him, don't play him. (Particularly this week AT Baltimore.) But don't say I didn't mention it.
A gold mine of high upside wide receivers flooded the market this week, making it relatively easy to roll the dice on one if you're short. The question is, which one?
In San Diego, for example. If Floyd sits out as expected, Patrick Crayton seems like the logical acquisition, but Craig "Buster" Davis could easily be the guy. With a poor pass defense in town, you could plug in Lance Moore, Robert Meachem or Devery Henderson and hope for five or more targets or the jackpot long TD. Jason Avant is startable while Desean Jackson recovers, but how startable?
If you're looking for something that may last a little longer, New England showed Deion Branch still has life left. It did take until the fourth quarter, but against a terrific pass defense. Anyone left behind in Seattle has potential, and at least for the moment it looks as though Mike Williams is back on top, though it would be difficult to truly count on him. And the surprise of the week, Danario Alexander, makes his case as the new Mark Clayton (though not quite Miles Austin.) Frankly, the way Sam Bradford seems to be handling his first year, anyone with any potential there immediately gets a little extra bump up. (Bradford himself is an incredible hold in Dynasty leagues.) But I'm a little hesitant on Alexander anyway. Four catches on five looks doesn't exactly translate to a new favorite target. (Granted, the flow of the game took Alexander out of the equation in the second half so he could have been good for much more.) He's a huge injury risk with major past knee problems. But his size, speed and monster final collegiate season can't be ignored. Neither can Friday's news that Mardy Gilyard may not play Sunday, increasing Alexander's opportunities. He simultaneously represents the second biggest upside and second biggest downside of this week's waiver wire WRs going forward.
The boom or bust category is led by Anthony Gonzalez, sure to be very high on waiver claims next week. Only the fact that the Colts are on a bye is preventing everyone in the world from adding him now, and in many leagues he has already been grabbed. He has the pedigree and the hype as a first round pick in 2007, so management will do everything to give him as many chances as possible. In his fourth year with the program, he obviously knows the system and has played extensively in it. Injuries and inconsistent play have plagued him as multiple guys have lined up and passed him on the depth chart. But just as he's returning to health this year, the Colts lose three prime targets in Austin Collie, Dallas Clark and Joseph Addai. Those three have combined for 99 or the Colts' 171 receptions through six games. Someone has to catch those, and Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon (a superior trade target right now) can't do it all. The stars could not have aligned better for Gonzalez, the most natural slot receiver left to see the underneath targets that were going toward Clark and Collie. We'll see what he does with it (let's hope he stays healthy), but no waiver wire wideout is entering anywhere close to as favorable a situation.
Running back is significantly thinner, and will only get worse with six teams on byes in Weeks 8 and 9. Plan ahead, as you should with your WRs as well. (Plug-and-play is OK for QB, TE, DST, and especially K.) If Danny Woodhead is still out there for any reason, grab him and play him as needed. Double-digit fantasy points may be a fluke, but not when it's three weeks in a row. (He had 115 yards from scrimmage last week. Against Baltimore!) As mentioned in the last column, he has RB AND WR eligibility in most leagues. Chris Ivory had his coming out party in Week 6, and now is on everyone's want list. Probably too late to get him once this column is published, but it looks as though he will have life even after PT and Bush return, as suggested. The jury will likely be out until later this season on Green Bay's James Starks, and it could be tough to gamble on him before then, but he certainly has upside. (Seems like I'm referring back to these guys a lot, so I'll include a separate section in my next column: Man Crush Update.) Emergency options include LeGarrette Blount, Javon Ringer, and surprisingly, Derrick Ward, who's been ticketed for a bigger share in Houston. Look for one series every few, and even perhaps a goalline carry or two in each game. That ain't bad given the alternatives. And if for any reason Donald Brown was dropped in your league, pick him up immediately, bye or no. Addai is out, so Brown is now the present as well as the future (and apparently healthy). Mike Hart is the lesser option, but he's a proven gamer and may still may get the goalline, a potential bonanza in Indy. I'd play him over Barber against the same opponent.
And despite the bizarre rash of tight end injuries, it's still a deep spot. Jacob Tamme inherits Dallas Clark's gig, but I don't like his chances nearly as much as Gonzalez'. He's just one of a gaggle of guys that may or may not do it for you in a given week. None are Dallas Clark or Jermichael Finley, of course, but five short receptions and a glance or two in the end zone should be good enough to get you by indefinitely. Even Antonio Gates owners have a potential late-game-time-decision replacement in John Carlson. He's only 20 percent owned in ESPN leagues, averages near five points per game, and is home against Arizona, as favorable a match as you can get. Just beware of your opponent grabbing him before you do! (My advice: Grab Carlson now, and drop him for a better stash from the late games or byes if Gates is active. Better safe than sorry.)
And one of my favorite play-and-hold guys for this week: Josh Freeman. He's had three strong weeks, one average (last week against the Saints' stingy pass defense) and one poor (I grant him a Mulligan against Pittsburgh.) This week, he's home against St. Louis. Schaub and Manning owners could do plenty worse. And if you think you can handle it, hold him for the fantasy playoffs. Are you ready for this?: Week 14 at Washington, Weeks 15-16 at home against Detroit and Seattle. I give him at least top 8 status each of those weeks, and a top 8 draft spot next year. Tampa Bay has virtually no running game (Freeman may be their best runner), Mike Williams is for real, and Arrelious Benn is in the wings. This season is Freeman's coming-out party. He'll still have his share of stinkers because he's still young, but his upside is higher than any other unestablished QB.
Don't go crazy, but I just wanted to point this out: Ryan Fitzpatrick (yes, Ryan Fitzpatrick) has a 7-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio in three games since taking over as starter in Buffalo. Three straight strong fantasy starts. His passing yardage ain't anything special, but he had seven rushes for 74 yards (against the Jets, no less) in Week 5. Again, don't go crazy. Don't add him, don't play him. (Particularly this week AT Baltimore.) But don't say I didn't mention it.
Saturday, October 16, 2010
Don't Sleep on Danny
Scouting the waiver wire earlier this week, I noticed that Danny Woodhead, one of the Hard Knocks darlings, had been granted unique dual positional eligibility (WR and RB) on multiple fantasy sports servers. Based on his Kevin Faulkesque usage and results so far with the Patriots, that’s fantasy gold for any owner looking for a plug or two during the bye weeks. And given the spread offense likely to emerge in the Patriots’ gameplans following the Moss trade, and the dominoes falling in the Patriots’ backfield, there’s little reason not to pick him up as a high-upside wildcard if you’ve got the space. Granted, if you’ve already got your byes mapped out, it may not be worth the bother. But if you think you might need a RB in Weeks 6 and 9, and a WR in Weeks 7 and 10, Danny Woodhead is your one-stop shop. Too bad he doesn’t play tight end as well, but I wouldn’t put it past Belichick to line him up there on occasion.
The James Starks Watch is reaching its crescendo, somewhat more quietly than I expected. The Packers just lost a huge weapon in Jermichael Finley, so their running game is going to have to be better than it’s been to make up some of the difference. They missed out on Marshawn Lynch and there’s precious little left out there with the trade deadline days away. (I’d be surprised if they never received a call about the availability of Jerome Harrison, and if they did, I’d be disappointed if they did not put in an least a cursory bid.) Brandon Jackson is not the answer, and neither is John Kuhn. We’re not talking Correll Buckhalter and Laurence Maroney here, but the two are, at best, only serviceable - barely keeping the linebackers honest. And Dimitri Nance, originally one of only a small handful of hopeful heirs to Grant, has been phased out of the running game entirely. This is a job for the taking, and I say Starks takes it. The management and coaching staff like him, and he’s been fully healthy for a few weeks now, giving him plenty of time to get used to running the offense. Granted, he’s a longshot, and his first games back are RB killers. But I still like him enough to grab him in a league where my best waiver week options are Mike Tolbert, Chris Ivory, and yes, Marion Barber.
Marion Barber is officially unplayable, but don’t cut bait yet. Not with Glass Felix Jones starting to get more carries. It’s only a matter of time before Barber and Tashard Choice are relevant again. And who knows? Maybe with Jones doing the running between the 20s, the Cowboys will be more likely to get Barber those critical touches inside the 5. But it’s impossible to start him right now. Just remember the Felix injury factor and the fact that the schedule gets steadily easier from here into the fantasy playoffs before you decide to walk away.
Chris Ivory, on the other hand, is actually almost startable despite being quite the fantasy enigma. He was supposed to be the new Mike Bell, for short yardage and protect-the-lead use only. But I guess when Ladell Betts is your backfield partner, you can’t help but get half the touches. He’s not getting enough key action to be a real option outside the bye weeks yet, and his touches will only go down when PT and/or Bush return, but it’ll be hard to ignore him if he IS the goalline back after that.
Another season, another reason. (To NOT draft PT, that is.)
Anyone who lost Jermichael Finley this week is on the hunt for a serviceable TE, and an earlier column indicated an abundance. Unless you’re in a two-TE or 16-team league, someone is out there. It may be a choice between Brandon Pettigrew or Tony Scheffler, but that’s not a bad choice at all, although both still face their bye next week. If you’re lucky, Heath Miller or Tony Moeaki is still out there, and you might even catch a Jermaine Gresham owner trying to sneak him out for the Bengals’ bye week. Pounce.
The James Starks Watch is reaching its crescendo, somewhat more quietly than I expected. The Packers just lost a huge weapon in Jermichael Finley, so their running game is going to have to be better than it’s been to make up some of the difference. They missed out on Marshawn Lynch and there’s precious little left out there with the trade deadline days away. (I’d be surprised if they never received a call about the availability of Jerome Harrison, and if they did, I’d be disappointed if they did not put in an least a cursory bid.) Brandon Jackson is not the answer, and neither is John Kuhn. We’re not talking Correll Buckhalter and Laurence Maroney here, but the two are, at best, only serviceable - barely keeping the linebackers honest. And Dimitri Nance, originally one of only a small handful of hopeful heirs to Grant, has been phased out of the running game entirely. This is a job for the taking, and I say Starks takes it. The management and coaching staff like him, and he’s been fully healthy for a few weeks now, giving him plenty of time to get used to running the offense. Granted, he’s a longshot, and his first games back are RB killers. But I still like him enough to grab him in a league where my best waiver week options are Mike Tolbert, Chris Ivory, and yes, Marion Barber.
Marion Barber is officially unplayable, but don’t cut bait yet. Not with Glass Felix Jones starting to get more carries. It’s only a matter of time before Barber and Tashard Choice are relevant again. And who knows? Maybe with Jones doing the running between the 20s, the Cowboys will be more likely to get Barber those critical touches inside the 5. But it’s impossible to start him right now. Just remember the Felix injury factor and the fact that the schedule gets steadily easier from here into the fantasy playoffs before you decide to walk away.
Chris Ivory, on the other hand, is actually almost startable despite being quite the fantasy enigma. He was supposed to be the new Mike Bell, for short yardage and protect-the-lead use only. But I guess when Ladell Betts is your backfield partner, you can’t help but get half the touches. He’s not getting enough key action to be a real option outside the bye weeks yet, and his touches will only go down when PT and/or Bush return, but it’ll be hard to ignore him if he IS the goalline back after that.
Another season, another reason. (To NOT draft PT, that is.)
Anyone who lost Jermichael Finley this week is on the hunt for a serviceable TE, and an earlier column indicated an abundance. Unless you’re in a two-TE or 16-team league, someone is out there. It may be a choice between Brandon Pettigrew or Tony Scheffler, but that’s not a bad choice at all, although both still face their bye next week. If you’re lucky, Heath Miller or Tony Moeaki is still out there, and you might even catch a Jermaine Gresham owner trying to sneak him out for the Bengals’ bye week. Pounce.
Friday, October 8, 2010
The Resurrection of Ryan Torain
He was the wunderkind of 2008. The can't-miss stash that folks started rostering in Week 3, even though he wasn't due until Week 9. He was the savior they were counting on to take their 3-5 teams to the fantasy playoffs. And he lasted all of one half.
A game and a half actually, but his debut in Week 9 was only a three-carry teaser. In week 10, coach Shanahan anointed him the feature back, and he responded with 12 carries for 68 yards (a CJ-esque 5.7 YPC average) and a short touchdown in just over one half of play. And then, he was crucified, felled by the infamous ACL tear.
Well folks, he's back. The bell hath tolled for Clinton Portis - he's out at least six weeks, a 30-year-old with the groin of a 50-year-old (no Brett Favre jokes please.) And that stubborn Shanahan, in order to prove his prophecy right, is giving the ball back to Torain.
Call me a doubting Thomas, but I just don't believe the 2010 Torain is as good a model as the 2008. And behind an unproven O-line, he's not in nearly as good a situation. And don't forget that Shanahan, the madman who turns Toms, Dicks and Harries into Ladainians, could easily turn away from the Torain page as quickly as he has turned to it. I still don't say this is a recipe for fantasy success, but while he's in there, he's worth a play during the bye weeks. Just don't be surprised if he gets four carries in Week 6.
Shanahan is the poster child for the scheme, not the back, generating the yardage. Joe Gibbs probably gave him the idea by using unknown before or since Timmy Smith to run for 200+ yards in Superbowl XXII. Unfortunately, this means RBs are becoming interchangeable on some teams, making it much more difficult to get THE guy. Dallas is a perfect example, although Tashard Choice isn't getting as many carries as I expected. Interestingly enough, Dallas has the fewest rushing attempts (69) so far this year, although the bye has something to do with that. They're in the middle of the pack in terms of passing attempts - they just haven't run as many offensive plays as most other teams. And they're only averaging 3.5 yards per rush. It's a fantasy mess if you've got Barber or Felix Jones (or are still holding onto Choice, which isn't that bad an idea, especially in a dynasty league) but have no fear, the Cowboys have one of the most favorable running back schedules remaining. If you have the space, and can get Jones or Barber on the cheap, it's probably worth it. Rumor mill out of Dallas has Jones being more featured going forward, so target him first, but he's always an injury risk. An injury to either would make Choice (very likely available in your pool) immediately worth using.
There are countless example of the NFL's move to multiple and special-duty running backs. What this means is there are less "good" running backs available to needy teams, like the Green Bay Packers. The Packers were in on the Marshawn Lynch talks, but didn't want to pay the price. The trend suggests they're going to have to make do internally (either with James Starks when he comes back, or a combo-back-system like they've done so far.) I still stand by Starks as a great stash, but he's a tough play considering the schedule when he comes back: Minnesota twice, the Jets, Dallas, and a bye. If you can be patient for Week 14 (Detroit), go for it. But it might be a long wait.
The Lynch trade was largely upstaged by the Moss trade less than 24 hours later, but I think the Lynch trade is more fascinating for fantasy owners. I don't believe the Moss trade dramatically changes fantasy values. Moss and Favre will go up, but will simply be what owners expected them to be when they drafted them. Harvin and AP may see a bump, but not a big one, and Brady and Welker's values will only go slightly either way. I originally felt Brandon Tate would benefit the most as the "replacement" for Randy Moss, but I now think it's more likely the Patriots will go to a mutliple-target spread offense a la New Orleans, making all the receivers useful, but very unpredictable, and thus unreliable for fantasy purposes. Another trend in the NFL, if you've got the personnel. The Patriots had it right when they were winning Superbowls - adding Randy Moss changed the formula for success that they had written out of necessity.
The Lynch trade, on the other hand, immediately inflates the values of Lynch, Spiller and especially Fred Jackson, who is a pass-catching featureback in an otherwise lifeless offense. Spiller will get his looks and touches, no doubt, but he still won't be a reliable fantasy play except maybe at the end of the season when the Bills are out of it and just want to see what he can do going forward as a possible featureback. That's the biggest risk in moving forward with Fred Jackson as a good fantasy play - that he'll be lifted during the fantasy playoffs. His schedule isn't terrific either, but when he was featured at least half the time on the same lifeless team last year (a 10-game span in which he totalled nearly 1000 yards from scrimmage), he was an every-week play. And that's NOT including his monster final game in which he carried 33 times for 212 yards. He is the Bills' best option, and they're not afraid to overuse him as they give Spiller development time for the future.
Lynch is much more of a wildcard in terms of value. He's definitely worth more now than he was in Buffalo, but it remains to be seen how he is used and what he does with his usage in Seattle. His first and second years in Buffalo were solid, though not truly spectacular, and similar production going forward would be just fine for owners. The run-blocking in Seattle is apparently better than in Buffalo, he's got a more accomplished QB to throw him the ball out of the backfield, and the schedule is much more favorable for running back production. Justin Forsett is there, yes, but I think Lynch wins the battle for snaps against his former Cal teammate, and thus Forsett's value takes a nosedive. But you never know, Lynch could have been brought in as a motivational tactic - the competition will drive one or the other to be spectacular, and it wouldn't be a shocker if it's Forsett, or if they split time equally. Lost in all this is Leon Washington, who has looked great on returns as usual, but hasn't seen much action in the backfield. I believe that is a mistake because I love his exceptional athleticism and ability, but it will be even harder to get him touches there going forward.
A game and a half actually, but his debut in Week 9 was only a three-carry teaser. In week 10, coach Shanahan anointed him the feature back, and he responded with 12 carries for 68 yards (a CJ-esque 5.7 YPC average) and a short touchdown in just over one half of play. And then, he was crucified, felled by the infamous ACL tear.
Well folks, he's back. The bell hath tolled for Clinton Portis - he's out at least six weeks, a 30-year-old with the groin of a 50-year-old (no Brett Favre jokes please.) And that stubborn Shanahan, in order to prove his prophecy right, is giving the ball back to Torain.
Call me a doubting Thomas, but I just don't believe the 2010 Torain is as good a model as the 2008. And behind an unproven O-line, he's not in nearly as good a situation. And don't forget that Shanahan, the madman who turns Toms, Dicks and Harries into Ladainians, could easily turn away from the Torain page as quickly as he has turned to it. I still don't say this is a recipe for fantasy success, but while he's in there, he's worth a play during the bye weeks. Just don't be surprised if he gets four carries in Week 6.
Shanahan is the poster child for the scheme, not the back, generating the yardage. Joe Gibbs probably gave him the idea by using unknown before or since Timmy Smith to run for 200+ yards in Superbowl XXII. Unfortunately, this means RBs are becoming interchangeable on some teams, making it much more difficult to get THE guy. Dallas is a perfect example, although Tashard Choice isn't getting as many carries as I expected. Interestingly enough, Dallas has the fewest rushing attempts (69) so far this year, although the bye has something to do with that. They're in the middle of the pack in terms of passing attempts - they just haven't run as many offensive plays as most other teams. And they're only averaging 3.5 yards per rush. It's a fantasy mess if you've got Barber or Felix Jones (or are still holding onto Choice, which isn't that bad an idea, especially in a dynasty league) but have no fear, the Cowboys have one of the most favorable running back schedules remaining. If you have the space, and can get Jones or Barber on the cheap, it's probably worth it. Rumor mill out of Dallas has Jones being more featured going forward, so target him first, but he's always an injury risk. An injury to either would make Choice (very likely available in your pool) immediately worth using.
There are countless example of the NFL's move to multiple and special-duty running backs. What this means is there are less "good" running backs available to needy teams, like the Green Bay Packers. The Packers were in on the Marshawn Lynch talks, but didn't want to pay the price. The trend suggests they're going to have to make do internally (either with James Starks when he comes back, or a combo-back-system like they've done so far.) I still stand by Starks as a great stash, but he's a tough play considering the schedule when he comes back: Minnesota twice, the Jets, Dallas, and a bye. If you can be patient for Week 14 (Detroit), go for it. But it might be a long wait.
The Lynch trade was largely upstaged by the Moss trade less than 24 hours later, but I think the Lynch trade is more fascinating for fantasy owners. I don't believe the Moss trade dramatically changes fantasy values. Moss and Favre will go up, but will simply be what owners expected them to be when they drafted them. Harvin and AP may see a bump, but not a big one, and Brady and Welker's values will only go slightly either way. I originally felt Brandon Tate would benefit the most as the "replacement" for Randy Moss, but I now think it's more likely the Patriots will go to a mutliple-target spread offense a la New Orleans, making all the receivers useful, but very unpredictable, and thus unreliable for fantasy purposes. Another trend in the NFL, if you've got the personnel. The Patriots had it right when they were winning Superbowls - adding Randy Moss changed the formula for success that they had written out of necessity.
The Lynch trade, on the other hand, immediately inflates the values of Lynch, Spiller and especially Fred Jackson, who is a pass-catching featureback in an otherwise lifeless offense. Spiller will get his looks and touches, no doubt, but he still won't be a reliable fantasy play except maybe at the end of the season when the Bills are out of it and just want to see what he can do going forward as a possible featureback. That's the biggest risk in moving forward with Fred Jackson as a good fantasy play - that he'll be lifted during the fantasy playoffs. His schedule isn't terrific either, but when he was featured at least half the time on the same lifeless team last year (a 10-game span in which he totalled nearly 1000 yards from scrimmage), he was an every-week play. And that's NOT including his monster final game in which he carried 33 times for 212 yards. He is the Bills' best option, and they're not afraid to overuse him as they give Spiller development time for the future.
Lynch is much more of a wildcard in terms of value. He's definitely worth more now than he was in Buffalo, but it remains to be seen how he is used and what he does with his usage in Seattle. His first and second years in Buffalo were solid, though not truly spectacular, and similar production going forward would be just fine for owners. The run-blocking in Seattle is apparently better than in Buffalo, he's got a more accomplished QB to throw him the ball out of the backfield, and the schedule is much more favorable for running back production. Justin Forsett is there, yes, but I think Lynch wins the battle for snaps against his former Cal teammate, and thus Forsett's value takes a nosedive. But you never know, Lynch could have been brought in as a motivational tactic - the competition will drive one or the other to be spectacular, and it wouldn't be a shocker if it's Forsett, or if they split time equally. Lost in all this is Leon Washington, who has looked great on returns as usual, but hasn't seen much action in the backfield. I believe that is a mistake because I love his exceptional athleticism and ability, but it will be even harder to get him touches there going forward.
Saturday, October 2, 2010
The Year of the Tight End
There was a lot of hype in the offseason about the tight end position being deeper than it has ever been, but I don't think even the experts expected a bonanza such as this.
With upwards of 20 tight ends being at least serviceable options over the first three weeks, there exists an embarrassment of riches, both on active rosters and on the waiver wire. Only the rare two tight end leagues are experiencing the usual shortages headed into the bye weeks.
Everyone knew Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark were going to be elite options, and they were drafted as such. So were Davis and Finley, and Cooley to a lesser extent. And big names like Witten, Celek and Daniels haven't even really shown up yet.
The good news is if you're pressed for a tight end in any given week, it shouldn't be difficult to find one. The bad news is if you spent a high draft pick on the position, it was most likely unnecessary. I did in all my leagues, mostly because I didn't buy the hype about depth. But it's still hard to argue with buying the peace of mind that Gates or Clark brings to your lineup. Not all the tight ends are every week plays. Those guys are, freeing up a bench spot for something other than a reserve TE.
But that brings me directly to the related counterpoint. There is likely no reason to carry a reserve tight end, regardless who your "starter" is. Whether you have a mid-level or elite guy, why bother with a reserve? Even in case of injury or to play on your bye week, there WILL be someone else there when you need him.
It's almost to the point where you can effectively stream mid-level guys. The problem is streaming often relies on matchup ratings. It's easy to predict good matchups for runnings backs and quarterbacks. Wide receiver matchups are less predictable, but you can create relatively decent odds. Predicting tight end matchups, however, is often very unreliable. Game planning, game situation, and variances in usage from team-to-team dramatically alter the matchup defense numbers for tight ends, much more so than the other positions. So I tend to take those with a grain of salt, and rely more on actual production by an individual to determine any tight end's value in a given week. That's where a guy like Gates or Clark holds a significant advantage. Finley too, as essentially matchup-proof.
The abundance of tight ends has also meant you're not going to get nearly as much in trade for a high-end guy. For those of you stocking two big talents, good luck trying to get good return on either. There are just too many legitimate options on the wire for anyone to bother coming after yours. And if you're in the opposite situation, looking for a workable guy, you're obviously not looking hard enough. He's out there.
Running Back Update:
More wildcard options surfacing just in time for the bye weeks. Laurence Maroney gets another shot this week with Moreno still out, but he didn't look very good last week so he's a pretty risky play but with some upside. Ryan Torain got picked up in many leagues, but I'm a little confused as to why. Even if he does get a lot of early-down work, it's still an unimpressive O-line and he's not exactly a burner. He had one run of 36 yards last week, but only generated 10 yards on six other runs. Not a recipe for success. Kenneth Darby will get the rock if SJax is sidelined, as expected, but it would be hard to play him as well. And in New Orleans, my boy Chris Ivory was looking like a very sneaky plug-in for Week 4 with PT possibly out, but now it looks like Ladell Betts (Ladell Betts!) will be the featureback if PT sits due to Ivory's pass protection issues. Still a decent stash in my opinion, but probably right on the bubble, especially during bye weeks. Betts could end up being the sneaky play this week, but he's certainly no better than Maroney, Torain or Darby in terms of risk/reward. The same is true of either Brandon Jackson or John Kuhn. Both could be serviceable plays against Detroit's horrid rush defense, but I wouldn't count on either, nor one over the other, although Jackson has the upside edge. Jackson could get the yardage, and would be a boom pick if he breaks off a long TD run or reception. Kuhn would probably get the call inside the five, but don't forget about the team's rushing TDs leader: Aaron Rodgers. His ability to scramble in almost makes Kuhn obsolete, or at least cuts his goalline value in half.
With upwards of 20 tight ends being at least serviceable options over the first three weeks, there exists an embarrassment of riches, both on active rosters and on the waiver wire. Only the rare two tight end leagues are experiencing the usual shortages headed into the bye weeks.
Everyone knew Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark were going to be elite options, and they were drafted as such. So were Davis and Finley, and Cooley to a lesser extent. And big names like Witten, Celek and Daniels haven't even really shown up yet.
The good news is if you're pressed for a tight end in any given week, it shouldn't be difficult to find one. The bad news is if you spent a high draft pick on the position, it was most likely unnecessary. I did in all my leagues, mostly because I didn't buy the hype about depth. But it's still hard to argue with buying the peace of mind that Gates or Clark brings to your lineup. Not all the tight ends are every week plays. Those guys are, freeing up a bench spot for something other than a reserve TE.
But that brings me directly to the related counterpoint. There is likely no reason to carry a reserve tight end, regardless who your "starter" is. Whether you have a mid-level or elite guy, why bother with a reserve? Even in case of injury or to play on your bye week, there WILL be someone else there when you need him.
It's almost to the point where you can effectively stream mid-level guys. The problem is streaming often relies on matchup ratings. It's easy to predict good matchups for runnings backs and quarterbacks. Wide receiver matchups are less predictable, but you can create relatively decent odds. Predicting tight end matchups, however, is often very unreliable. Game planning, game situation, and variances in usage from team-to-team dramatically alter the matchup defense numbers for tight ends, much more so than the other positions. So I tend to take those with a grain of salt, and rely more on actual production by an individual to determine any tight end's value in a given week. That's where a guy like Gates or Clark holds a significant advantage. Finley too, as essentially matchup-proof.
The abundance of tight ends has also meant you're not going to get nearly as much in trade for a high-end guy. For those of you stocking two big talents, good luck trying to get good return on either. There are just too many legitimate options on the wire for anyone to bother coming after yours. And if you're in the opposite situation, looking for a workable guy, you're obviously not looking hard enough. He's out there.
Running Back Update:
More wildcard options surfacing just in time for the bye weeks. Laurence Maroney gets another shot this week with Moreno still out, but he didn't look very good last week so he's a pretty risky play but with some upside. Ryan Torain got picked up in many leagues, but I'm a little confused as to why. Even if he does get a lot of early-down work, it's still an unimpressive O-line and he's not exactly a burner. He had one run of 36 yards last week, but only generated 10 yards on six other runs. Not a recipe for success. Kenneth Darby will get the rock if SJax is sidelined, as expected, but it would be hard to play him as well. And in New Orleans, my boy Chris Ivory was looking like a very sneaky plug-in for Week 4 with PT possibly out, but now it looks like Ladell Betts (Ladell Betts!) will be the featureback if PT sits due to Ivory's pass protection issues. Still a decent stash in my opinion, but probably right on the bubble, especially during bye weeks. Betts could end up being the sneaky play this week, but he's certainly no better than Maroney, Torain or Darby in terms of risk/reward. The same is true of either Brandon Jackson or John Kuhn. Both could be serviceable plays against Detroit's horrid rush defense, but I wouldn't count on either, nor one over the other, although Jackson has the upside edge. Jackson could get the yardage, and would be a boom pick if he breaks off a long TD run or reception. Kuhn would probably get the call inside the five, but don't forget about the team's rushing TDs leader: Aaron Rodgers. His ability to scramble in almost makes Kuhn obsolete, or at least cuts his goalline value in half.
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