Who ya gonna play at RB next week?
That's what this year is quickly turning into. The RBBC reality gets even more interesting after this past week, as Jahvid Best, Ray Rice and Steven Jackson all suffered injuries that forced them from the field. Willis McGahee is an obvious pickup if he's available, if even only for a week. The situations in St. Louis and Detroit are far more blurry.
Tonight's Green Bay game is demonstrating why James Starks is a terrific IR stash and even a decent roster burn if you have the space. The Packers' running game is hardly impressive WITH Ryan Grant, but it's non-existent without him. I applaud the respective willingness and effort put in by both Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn, but neither is suited for a featureback role. The latest reports have Starks running at full speed, so he should be 100 percent by Week 7, and I'm willing to hazard a guess he's given an immediate crack at the job.
My hot tip item from last week, Chris Ivory looked pretty amateur yesterday against Atlanta. BUT they did give him the ball in several short yardage situations, AND went back to him even after he fumbled. Now they're talking about getting him the ball 10 times a game, and you can bet some of those will be at the goalline. He definitely has a shot to be this year's Mike Bell, with more explosive upside. And as the No. 2 until Reggie Bush is out, he gets even more of a bump up. One near-miss Pierre Thomas knee-injury yesterday almost defaulted Ivory into THE featureback of the New Orleans Saints.
I was right on picking up a New England RB for yesterday's Buffalo cakewalk, but I picked the wrong guy. BenJarvus Green-Ellis turned into much better than an emergency play after Taylor aggravated a toe injury. Back to my earlier point, however, and that is neither guy is much use beyond last week due to a difficult schedule and impossible-to-predict usage.
I was also right on not rushing to pick up Keiland Williams, but not for all the right reasons. Shanahan's RB woodwork is working again, as Ryan Torain is now the No. 2 in Washington, and may get a shot at a split or better with Portis. Williams is totally off the radar.
I didn't mention LeGarrette Blount Thursday because I didn't believe he would become relevant so quickly. I was still thinking about Kareem Huggins, who is still part of the equation. Blount is a prototypical power back - a great early-down, short-yardage or ice-the-game crusher. Originally touted as a possible early-round draft pick, he was pretty much forgotten after getting suspended for his senior season at Oregon for taking a cheap shot at an opposing player during an on-field altercation. Tennessee took a look at him in training camp, but he has a much better shot to be worthwhile in Tampa Bay. Huggins is more of a dancer, so probably better as a change-of-pace guy. One, if not both, will be more valuable than Cadillac by midseason. Blount looked solid in limited action on Sunday, averaging 4.5 yards per rush against a tough Pittsburgh defense. You add him before Huggins if you want to roll the dice there. The downside is Tampa Bay has its bye next week, so you have to wait longer to see if your claim pays any return.
Monday, September 27, 2010
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Welcome to my World
ad·dic·tion: a physiological or psychological dependency on a specific substance or behavior
It's not crack, people. It's fantasy football.
And there are those times, frustrating as they may be, when there is NO NEW INFORMATION.
That's where I come in. My signature entry every Saturday around noon ET, and occasionally a briefing on Monday night. Filled primarily with my own observations and speculations that haven't yet congested the information superhighway. I don't claim to have inside information, I just claim to bring forth what I have culled and collected like any other addict.
I will be right sometimes, and wrong sometimes. Just like the "experts".
Entry I - Further descent into the RBBC
When early-round breakout favorites Shonn Greene and Jamaal Charles are no more worthwhile than their committee partners, when three-headed monster is becoming the norm rather than the exception, and when decent moving parts are dropping like passes to Ted Ginn, you've got a total watering down of value at the RB position in 2010. The feature back is a true bonanza, and it doesn't get better. Draft early and often, until all supplies are gone.
But what if you don't get one of those guys? Recent history has shown that because the feature back is an endangered species, viable alternatives are more plentiful. Doesn't replace high-end production, but I'll take an 8 over a 0 any day.
Hitting the wire after an injury is the most common tactic - Brandon Jackson after Week 1, Mike Tolbert after Week 2 - but there's another, more rewarding way. Prospecting for hidden gems. Reading the tea leaves of opportunity behind a cloud of unsureity. You hit a hail mary there, you become immortalized in your pool for life.
With that as the backdrop, I present: The Case for Chris Ivory
After an eyebrow-raising preseason, Chris Ivory was a surprise survivor after the final cuts, especially since he sustained an MCL injury in the final preseason game. Buried on the depth chart, he was at best a Project RB. And yet some were terming him one possible answer as goalline back after Lynell Hamilton's season-ending injury, and Mike Bell proved how valuable that can be if you play for the New Orleans Saints. The MCL injury, combined with the ease with which Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush seemed to be balancing the load early, made Ivory a quickly forgotten commodity.
Fast forward. Bush is out for awhile, at least four weeks and probably more like six. And Ivory is now healthy, having earlier this week participated in his first full practices of the regular season. Pierre Thomas isn't going to do it all - this offense is tailor-made for multiple running backs. The alternatives, Ladell Betts and DeShawn Wynn, aren't the answers the Saints are seeking. Enter Ivory.
He doesn't have the pedigree - he was a free agent signed out of Division II Tiffin University. But he does have the promise. And now, he has the opportunity.
And it probably couldn't come at a better time. The Saints have seven weeks until their bye, and if firing on all cylinders, may keep Bush out until after that. In that span, they play a very RB-friendly schedule including games against Carolina, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Arizona and Cleveland. At the very least, they should be comfortably ahead at the end of the most of those, meaning a steady fourth-quarter diet of the Mike Bell ground-and-pound formula to close out the game. Ivory will get the call there, in addition to any regular carries he gets to spell Thomas, including at the goalline, where the Saints have traditionally been hesitant to risk their "feature" back. And guess what? Ivory can catch too. His signature play of the preseason was a 76-yard TD reception right out of the Pierre Thomas / Reggie Bush playbook. He broke and/or evaded no fewer than five tackles after catching the ball behind the line of scrimmage at his own 20-yard-line, wowing the home crowd in the process.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33iGu_ZYbBY
He may not pan out after all, but if he does, you will have one piece in place to help cruise through the bye weeks or weather any injuries. I think that's worth the roster spot.
And although he's one of my personal favorites, he's hardly the only still-under-the-radar option worth considering at RB. Fullback John Kuhn and PUP lister James Starks (both of Green Bay) definitely qualify. Kuhn because he's a straight-ahead bruiser (a great option at the goalline) and garnered just two fewer carries in Week 2 than waiver wire darling Brandon Jackson. He also did much better with his carries, though Jackson got the short TD. Expect that opportunity to switch to Kuhn soon as Jackson is actually prized by the organization for his critical third-down blocking and pass-catching skills. Don't fix it if it's not broken. Kuhn will be a great bye week option so long as he's getting around 10 carries and gets the looks at the goalline for the juggernaut offense of the Packers, just like Ivory in New Orleans. Once Starks comes off the PUP list though, Kuhn may be relegated to strictly fullback duty in his favor. Starks is a high-upside prospect that is envisioned as a possible future featureback. That future may just be sooner than expected, and if you have an IR spot to stash him in, why not? You will have to wait until at least midseason to cash in that lottery ticket though as he is ineligible to play until Week 8.
Among other popular names that seem to be making the pundit's rounds in these parts include Keiland Williams, the default No. 2 to clearly aging back Clinton Portis in Washington. Any Mike Shanahan RB could come out of the woodwork and produce at any time, so he's got inexplicable history demonstrating his upside. But it would probably take a full workload (i.e. Portis injury) to give him enough opportunity to be a viable fantasy play behind Washington's shaky O-line. No way he's worthwhile without 20 touches a game, but I think I said that about Peyton Hillis last year and was wrong. I just would sooner go with others than Williams and tend to disagree with the guys hyping him as the best long odds / short owned option.
With Laurence Maroney off to Denver and Kevin Faulk gone for the season, New England's BenJarvus Green-Ellis makes for a decent emergency play this week against hapless Buffalo if neither Fred Taylor nor Maroney (getting the surprise start against Indy) is still available in your pool. Unfortunately, you never really know how that crazy Belichick is going to use his RBs, and after this week, the opponents get much tougher through at least midseason. Both Green-Ellis and Taylor thus revert to relatively unwise plays beyond this Sunday. Taylor makes for a brilliant sell-high if he's productive with a high number of carries vs. Buffalo, a fairly likely possibility, so you probably want to hold onto him if you can just for that purpose. Anticipating such a trade may be difficult to engineer, and not needing him in my lineup this week, I am leaning heavily towards dropping him for Ivory BEFORE Sunday, BEFORE Ivory is given any chance to break out. (See: Thomas, Demariyus.)
And branching off from the school of Belichick, how about the situation in Brownsville? Jerome Harrison rocketed up draft lists once Hardesty was knocked out, and now he's splitting carries with Hillis, who is the choice at the goalline. He also was held out of some practices this week. Enter forgotten darling James Davis. Not a recommended grab..... yet. But definitely worth watching as Harrison has repeatedly shown he lacks the trust of the coaching staff and the Cleveland O-line is not a bad one to work through.
Ivory first, Davis last. Lots of moving parts to consider for your machine going forward.
It's not crack, people. It's fantasy football.
And there are those times, frustrating as they may be, when there is NO NEW INFORMATION.
That's where I come in. My signature entry every Saturday around noon ET, and occasionally a briefing on Monday night. Filled primarily with my own observations and speculations that haven't yet congested the information superhighway. I don't claim to have inside information, I just claim to bring forth what I have culled and collected like any other addict.
I will be right sometimes, and wrong sometimes. Just like the "experts".
Entry I - Further descent into the RBBC
When early-round breakout favorites Shonn Greene and Jamaal Charles are no more worthwhile than their committee partners, when three-headed monster is becoming the norm rather than the exception, and when decent moving parts are dropping like passes to Ted Ginn, you've got a total watering down of value at the RB position in 2010. The feature back is a true bonanza, and it doesn't get better. Draft early and often, until all supplies are gone.
But what if you don't get one of those guys? Recent history has shown that because the feature back is an endangered species, viable alternatives are more plentiful. Doesn't replace high-end production, but I'll take an 8 over a 0 any day.
Hitting the wire after an injury is the most common tactic - Brandon Jackson after Week 1, Mike Tolbert after Week 2 - but there's another, more rewarding way. Prospecting for hidden gems. Reading the tea leaves of opportunity behind a cloud of unsureity. You hit a hail mary there, you become immortalized in your pool for life.
With that as the backdrop, I present: The Case for Chris Ivory
After an eyebrow-raising preseason, Chris Ivory was a surprise survivor after the final cuts, especially since he sustained an MCL injury in the final preseason game. Buried on the depth chart, he was at best a Project RB. And yet some were terming him one possible answer as goalline back after Lynell Hamilton's season-ending injury, and Mike Bell proved how valuable that can be if you play for the New Orleans Saints. The MCL injury, combined with the ease with which Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush seemed to be balancing the load early, made Ivory a quickly forgotten commodity.
Fast forward. Bush is out for awhile, at least four weeks and probably more like six. And Ivory is now healthy, having earlier this week participated in his first full practices of the regular season. Pierre Thomas isn't going to do it all - this offense is tailor-made for multiple running backs. The alternatives, Ladell Betts and DeShawn Wynn, aren't the answers the Saints are seeking. Enter Ivory.
He doesn't have the pedigree - he was a free agent signed out of Division II Tiffin University. But he does have the promise. And now, he has the opportunity.
And it probably couldn't come at a better time. The Saints have seven weeks until their bye, and if firing on all cylinders, may keep Bush out until after that. In that span, they play a very RB-friendly schedule including games against Carolina, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Arizona and Cleveland. At the very least, they should be comfortably ahead at the end of the most of those, meaning a steady fourth-quarter diet of the Mike Bell ground-and-pound formula to close out the game. Ivory will get the call there, in addition to any regular carries he gets to spell Thomas, including at the goalline, where the Saints have traditionally been hesitant to risk their "feature" back. And guess what? Ivory can catch too. His signature play of the preseason was a 76-yard TD reception right out of the Pierre Thomas / Reggie Bush playbook. He broke and/or evaded no fewer than five tackles after catching the ball behind the line of scrimmage at his own 20-yard-line, wowing the home crowd in the process.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33iGu_ZYbBY
He may not pan out after all, but if he does, you will have one piece in place to help cruise through the bye weeks or weather any injuries. I think that's worth the roster spot.
And although he's one of my personal favorites, he's hardly the only still-under-the-radar option worth considering at RB. Fullback John Kuhn and PUP lister James Starks (both of Green Bay) definitely qualify. Kuhn because he's a straight-ahead bruiser (a great option at the goalline) and garnered just two fewer carries in Week 2 than waiver wire darling Brandon Jackson. He also did much better with his carries, though Jackson got the short TD. Expect that opportunity to switch to Kuhn soon as Jackson is actually prized by the organization for his critical third-down blocking and pass-catching skills. Don't fix it if it's not broken. Kuhn will be a great bye week option so long as he's getting around 10 carries and gets the looks at the goalline for the juggernaut offense of the Packers, just like Ivory in New Orleans. Once Starks comes off the PUP list though, Kuhn may be relegated to strictly fullback duty in his favor. Starks is a high-upside prospect that is envisioned as a possible future featureback. That future may just be sooner than expected, and if you have an IR spot to stash him in, why not? You will have to wait until at least midseason to cash in that lottery ticket though as he is ineligible to play until Week 8.
Among other popular names that seem to be making the pundit's rounds in these parts include Keiland Williams, the default No. 2 to clearly aging back Clinton Portis in Washington. Any Mike Shanahan RB could come out of the woodwork and produce at any time, so he's got inexplicable history demonstrating his upside. But it would probably take a full workload (i.e. Portis injury) to give him enough opportunity to be a viable fantasy play behind Washington's shaky O-line. No way he's worthwhile without 20 touches a game, but I think I said that about Peyton Hillis last year and was wrong. I just would sooner go with others than Williams and tend to disagree with the guys hyping him as the best long odds / short owned option.
With Laurence Maroney off to Denver and Kevin Faulk gone for the season, New England's BenJarvus Green-Ellis makes for a decent emergency play this week against hapless Buffalo if neither Fred Taylor nor Maroney (getting the surprise start against Indy) is still available in your pool. Unfortunately, you never really know how that crazy Belichick is going to use his RBs, and after this week, the opponents get much tougher through at least midseason. Both Green-Ellis and Taylor thus revert to relatively unwise plays beyond this Sunday. Taylor makes for a brilliant sell-high if he's productive with a high number of carries vs. Buffalo, a fairly likely possibility, so you probably want to hold onto him if you can just for that purpose. Anticipating such a trade may be difficult to engineer, and not needing him in my lineup this week, I am leaning heavily towards dropping him for Ivory BEFORE Sunday, BEFORE Ivory is given any chance to break out. (See: Thomas, Demariyus.)
And branching off from the school of Belichick, how about the situation in Brownsville? Jerome Harrison rocketed up draft lists once Hardesty was knocked out, and now he's splitting carries with Hillis, who is the choice at the goalline. He also was held out of some practices this week. Enter forgotten darling James Davis. Not a recommended grab..... yet. But definitely worth watching as Harrison has repeatedly shown he lacks the trust of the coaching staff and the Cleveland O-line is not a bad one to work through.
Ivory first, Davis last. Lots of moving parts to consider for your machine going forward.
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