Fantasy ManCrush, Episode I

Last year, I was all about James Starks, Chris Ivory, Danny Woodhead and basically all the Bucs not named Earnest Graham. I'll be updating my mancrush list on a weekly basis, but we need a starting point for 2011. These are the guys that for whatever reason I'm absolutely fixated on to start the season (not counting the studs we know will be studs):

Matt Stafford. Again, Aaron Rodgers-esque breakout coming. It's going to be fun to watch. Nate Burleson and Titus Young also qualify for this list. The Lions are actually my Buccaneers for this season, even though Jahvid Best scares the bejesus out of me for a variety of good and bad reasons.

Mike Tolbert. Barring injury, I just can't fathom a scenario whereby Tolbert fails to score 10 fantasy points in any given game. Probably never gonna get to 20, but I can live with 10 every week. That's Steven Jackson territory.

Brandon Jacobs. Tolbert Junior (errrr, Senior.) Enough touches to do consistent damage every week, and for a much lower price than his tandem partner Bradshaw.

Julio Jones. Yes, it is possible that he outproduces Roddy White in his rookie year. Unlikely, yes, but possible. I think it will at least be close when all is said and done, and I think both will finish in the top 15. Think Miles Austin and Dez Bryant.

Jimmy Graham. After Gates and Finley, there's no one I think will be more explosive at the position this year. I'm even starting to look at him ahead of Finley.

Dexter McCluster. The chuckles I've heard on this one suggest I could just have easily have said "Donald Brown" I don't know why, I just think the guy's gonna be a gamer this year, and I love his dual position eligibility a la Woodhead. I basically envision him as exactly what Woodhead was last year, producing as a WR3 with the added benefit of being used as an RB in an emergency. This is the one guy on my list that has any chance of being available on your waiver wire, and it's actually very likely that he is. Go get him, and send me a Thank You card later. (On second thought, it may take him til midseason to make a difference, just like Woodhead, so perhaps you can wait on that......)


On Manning

I can't recall an injury that has more dramatically affected more player values than this one. It's like the Pearl Harbor, the JFK assassination or the 9/11 of fantasy football.* (Where were you when you heard that Manning could be out for the year?) Wayne, Collie and Garcon have all been postulated to be demoted at least 1-2 full tiers in the fantasy ranks. They're talking about going run-heavy, which would be suicide for the way this team is built. Might as well start talking to Andrew Luck now about his rookie contract. No, I think they stay the course for the most part. Collins is no Manning, for sure, but he can get the job done. Wayne is an elite receiver, Collie is a gamer as evidenced by last season, and Garcon is steady if not spectacular. And any schmo QB would love an inside weapon like Clark. If not for the pressure of filling a massive void, Collins would be entering a QB's dream scenario.

And what about that run game that they may turn to? Though no big play threat, Joseph Addai is about as good as they come in terms of patience, humility, pass blocking and outlet availability, so total number of goalline touches is about the only thing he takes a hit on, simply because they won't be down there as much. He actually may benefit in terms of number of touches but does have a TD vulture looking over his shoulder in Delone Carter, who probably isn't rostered in most leagues anyway and would need to show quite an immediate and explosive breakout ability to have fantasy relevance this year. He's the guy that would have to do it if they're going to go run, and I just don't see it, though there have been occasional comparisons to MJD. Donald Brown is still there, but he's still lousy. Ditto Anthony Gonzalez in the passing game, but you just never know. A whole lot of wildcards sometimes equals a royal flush.

* I'm torn about having NFL Opening Day coincide with the 10th anniversary of 9/11. A big part of me thinks it is truly fitting, stick it to the terrorists by continuing to do what we love in spite of their actions. We will not be terrorized. We will not sacrifice our way of life out of fear. At the same time, I think the date should be solemnized, particularly the 10th anniversary of the tragedy. I honestly believe September 11 should be made an annual national holiday of remembrance. And you could put a positive spin on it by calling it Patriots Day or National Heroes Day or the like, while still making a clear acknowledgement of the victims. I think playing football is among the most American things you could possibly do, so I think it's a great idea to go on with the games. It's just a little tougher to get into the spirit of it this year on the benchmark anniversary. I will be passionately monitoring my fantasy teams on Sunday, but not without a much heavier heart than usual. And it has nothing to do with having Peyton Manning on one of my teams.

Sneaky plays of the week
You're in trouble if you're already looking for a plug-and-play, but here's this week's top options for guys that were not likely drafted as starters, and my crazy projections for each:
Kerry Collins: 250 passing yards, 3 TD, 2 INT. Seriously. This will be a high-scoring game and his receiving crew is among the best in the league.Ben Tate and Derrick Ward: 50+ all-purpose yards each, whether or not Foster plays (but not sure which will score)
Michael Bush: 75 yards and one TD plunge. Double that if DMC goes down before halftime as expected.
Julio Jones: 8+ receptions, 100+ yards, 1 long TD. Welcome to the NFL!
Nate Burleson: 75+ yards and one touchdown, mostly because four guys were covering Megatron on the play.
Aaron Hernandez: 60+ yards and 1 TD. I think Gronkowski has a good chance to get one as well, but fewer receptions and yardage.
San Francisco DST: 3 turnovers and one defensive touchdown while shutting down what Seattle euphemistically calls its "offense"
There's eight options listed here. If I get two right, I'm doing OK. Anything over three and I'm a flippin' genius!

Suicide/Survivor
Like every year, week 1 is going to be tough, but this year it seems even tougher. And that should ensure you lose half the pool after the first week, my favorite aspect of these types of pools. I've been doing the same one for about five years, and actually won the whole thing once. Four out of five times, I've gone deep into the season, following a few simple guidelines for as long as I possibly can:

1) Always pick a home team. Home teams in the NFL win 70 percent of the time. Huge statistical advantage.
2) Avoid underdogs (for obvious reasons) and close spreads (3 points or less). The oddsmakers have a pretty good idea what one team's chances are of beating another, so it's prudent to avoid those matches in which they don't waver far from even.
3) Avoid national telecasts and upper-end division rivalries. Generally, the intensity gets ramped up in these games and weird things happen to both teams. Unfortunately, that's true of every game in Week One, but obviously you have to pick someone.
4) Avoid betting on a weak team, especially early in the season, simply because you think their opponent is weaker and you want to save the better teams for later. It's not going to help you to have New England left in Week 10 if you get eliminated in Week 2. Go with the surer things and worry about your more critical choices later. In Week 2, you have no idea what any team is really going to be worth come Week 10.
5) Avoid betting for or against Oakland. Probably the least predictable team in the NFL.

Following those rules, I'm left ONLY with Kansas City (hosting Buffalo) and San Diego (hosting Minnesota) for Week One. Special mention goes to Houston (hosting Indy) which the oddsmakers have heavily favored because Manning is out. I'm not so sure the Texans take this one. It IS an intense rivalry, and you can bet the entire Indy squad will be motivated to prove they can succeed without their star. Furthermore, Foster may sit, or at least be limited. I'm not saying the Colts WILL win, I'm just saying there's a good enough chance they MIGHT win that I don't want to bet against it.

Either KC or San Diego works this week, but I'm slightly more confident that San Diego will win, so I'm going with them. And by the way, the worst bet this week, violating all of my rules, would be Oakland. But I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Raiders won.