Saturday, December 11, 2010

It's About Time!

It only took 13 weeks, but James Starks is finally relevant. And even a reasonable upside play this week at Detroit if you're short on options. He burst onto the scene with a shocking 18 touches last week, garnering nearly 80 yards as the primary early down option. I wouldn't count on him for a touchdown, but it's certainly possible.

This is the time of year when complete unknowns come out of the woodwork to win fantasy championships. (Last year, it was Jerome Harrison, Jamaal Charles and Arian Foster.) Unfortunately, most of the managers in position to win championships simply have stronger options, so a lot of these guys never see active duty.

If you are one of those owners who made the playoffs not on the strength of two stud RBs, or lost one late (like Gore,) it's time to do some Christmas shopping.

Starks is one of the better ones, but don't get too excited too quickly. His upside is limited by the focus on the passing game, a few quality alternatives in the backfield, and Aaron Rodgers' penchant for sneaking it in himself when at the goalline.

Tashard Choice is really the guy to roll with here. Despite a few hiccups that seemed to be illogically held against him, he has excelled each time he has been given a real role. This week is only moderately attractive, but when championships are decided in Weeks 15 and 16, Choice draws Washington and Arizona. It doesn't get much better than that. I suspect he retains his new complementary gig even after Barber is back at full strength, and quite possibly becomes the best of the three Dallas RBs in those games. I predict he's good for at least 10 fantasy points in each of the remaining games, although his upside is capped by limited touches.

The cat is out of the bag on Chris Ivory, but it remains to be see how his role develops now that PT is back on board. He certainly not a bad option if he's available, but I believe his touches will steadily decrease and he thus becomes a progressively riskier play.

Starks and Ivory were my big recommended grabs earlier this season, but Ivory was running hot and cold while Starks didn't get his feet under him until last week. Some of my other prognostications proved equally accurate: Danny Woodhead, Fred Jackson and LeGarrette Blount. I also seem to be right on some of my recent playoff DST recomendations: Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Dallas, though we'll have to wait and see how they really do over the next few weeks. (Seriously, Dallas is a great grab for Weeks 15 and 16 if they're still out there.) Others, particularly those where I advised skepticism, proved faulty: Jacob Tamme, Mike Goodson and Ryan Torain.

There is nothing more fun than gambling and winning on a longshot, and little more frustrating than gambling and losing when you benched a more reliable, albeit lower upside, option. But that's what fantasy football is about. It's as much about your gut feeling and chance/luck as it is about the hard statistics. Otherwise, it wouldn't be as much fun.

This will likely be my last column of the year as there is not much I can do to help you from here on out, and not much that hasn't been said repeatedly by someone else already. Make the most of what's left of the fantasy season, and then get ready to get back to enjoying "real" football, in the NFL playoffs, when you can safely go back to rooting for the guys you like regardless of whose fantasy team they were on!

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