Wideouts to the Rescue

Last week, I talked about some RBs that might emerge to become playoff heroes, and this week I'll take a stab at the wideouts who might do just the same.

This list begins and ends with Santana Moss. With three straight top five matchups on tap, and no Fred Davis around to steal targets, Moss easily has a chance to be a top 15 WR in the fantasy playoffs. It's not necessarily going to happen, but he'd be very difficult to leave out of my lineup as my third wideout. In a similar situation scheduling-wise is Jerome Simpson, at least for Weeks 15 (at St. Louis) and 16 (vs. Arizona). He's be more of a risk than Moss, but probably carries equal upside. His recent struggles have come against very tough opponents. As Jordy Nelson, Julio Jones and now Antonio Brown have shown, playing second fiddle to an elite No. 1 option isn't necessarily a bad thing as it actually decreases your coverages.

Now if you want a real Hail Mary, try Demariyus Thomas. Last week could be the beginning of a beautiful friendship between he and Tebow, and the two get New England's wildly unpredictable secondary at home in Week 15. I think if Eddie Royal is still out for that game, Thomas is a slam dunk.

This is likely my last column of the season, so I wanted to grade myself on my preseason predictions. How did I do?

The All Mid-Round Team
These are the guys that will not drafted among the tops at their position, but represent the best chance to produce as such in 2011 without carrying the hefty price tag. Feel great about getting them in Rounds 4-6.
QB: Matt Ryan
RBs: Felix Jones and Beanie Wells
WRs: Julio Jones, Mario Manningham and Kenny Britt
TE: Jimmy Graham
Grade: C+. Unfortunately, a bunch of these guys got injured, otherwise it may have been a different story. I was dead on about Graham, but Ryan proved to still be nothing better than a mid-level QB.

The All Reserve Team
These are guys likely to be drafted as reserves that could probably be played safely in any week this season. In my mind, the best just-outside-the-starters to own in terms of insurance and plug-and-play vs. most opponents. Superior depth guys.
QB: Eli Manning
RBs: Mike Tolbert and Brandon Jacobs
WRs: Emmanuel Sanders, Lance Moore and Lee Evans
TE: Brandon Pettigrew
Grade: B+. I whiffed on the wideouts, but the rest were fine, especially Manning, possibly the steal of most drafts.

The All Under-the-Radar Team
I can't believe I'm not hearing more buzz about these guys as viable fantasy plays. Not necessarily as starters from Day One, but depth guys with pretty good potential to fill a gap if needed. Don't forget about them.
QB: Kerry Collins
RBs: Willis McGahee and Dexter McCluster
WRs: Nate Burleson, Harry Douglas and Antonio Brown
TE: Lance Kendricks
Grade: C. The disparity between guys like Collins and Kendricks (useless) and McGahee and Brown (weekly starters) is pretty amazing. Burleson had his moments, but McCluster has been at best a desperation play.

The All Watch List Team
These guys will probably go undrafted in most leagues, but mark my words, they'll be in someone's active lineup at some point in every league before the season is through.
QB: Blaine Gabbert
RBs: Delone Carter and Montario Hardesty
WRs: Arrelious Benn, Titus Young and Denarius Moore
TE: Jared Cook
Grade: C. Apart from Moore's hot streak, these guys should have spent far more time in the free agent pool than on anyone's bench. But I didn't say they were going to be regulars!

The All Dynasty Team
These guys are probably not viable options for this year, but if you have available dynasty stashes for 2012 and beyond, go for it.
QB: Cam Newton
RBs: Taiwan Jones and Jacquizz Rodgers
WRs: Demariyus Thomas, Randall Cobb and Vincent Brown
TE: Evan Moore.
Grade: A-. Newton was a first-year wonder, Brown and Thomas are legitimately playable now, and I still like the looks of the other guys.

The All Overdraft Team
These guys are my predictions for biggest fantasy busts in 2011 based on their average draft position. Let someone else take their chances.
QB: Matt Schaub
RBs: Jahvid Best and Knowshon Moreno
WRs: Brandon Marshall, Brandon Lloyd and Chad Ochocinco
TE: Tony Gonzalez.
Grade: B. Jackpot on the RBs and Ochocinco, but missed badly on a resurgent Gonzalez. Marshall was about right for his ADP while Lloyd and Schaub were only minor disappointments.

My predictions for the top 5 fantasy producers at each position at season's end, in order (standing entering Week 14):
QB: Rodgers (1), Brady (4), Brees (3), Vick (injured), Ryan (8)
RB: AP (5-injured), Charles (IR), Rice (2), McFadden (injured), Foster (3)
WR: Calvin Johnson (1), Andre Johnson (inj), Larry Fitzgerald (9), Vincent Jackson (8), Mike Wallace (5)
TE: Gates (9-injured), Graham (2), Finley (6), Witten (4), Daniels (11)
Grade: B. Injuries were the only thing that got in my way, but that's fantasy football, right? Ryan and Daniels were clear failures, while my biggest omissions were McCoy and Gronkowski.

Grade Point Average: 2.76. Call it a sophomore slump.

Good luck in the playoffs everyone!

Blood Pressure Rising

I would like to have the personal pride to say my absence last week was inexcusable, but it was Thanksgiving, I was out of town, and my mother-in-law does not have wifi. I'm giving myself a break this time.

Anyway, it's Week 13, often one of the most exciting weeks of the fantasy season as the dividing line for many teams between in and out of the playoffs. One of the weird quirky things about fantasy football vs. real football. (Honestly, since I started playing fantasy football, I usually forget there is a Week 17 in the NFL season.)

I've found few things more thrilling than sneaking into the fantasy playoffs after being on the bubble all season long, and that usually comes courtesy of at least one unlikely wildcard. In Week 13, that will be Kevin Smith, Donald Brown and Marcel Reese. (And the 49ers DST, although as one of the top DST plays this year, that's hardly a wildcard. But against a St. Louis team with A.J. Feeley, the 49ers DST could win the week for an underdog.) Any of those three RBs could emerge as that guy that comes out of nowhere to be a hero in the fantasy playoffs. I love those guys. (Freakin' Tashard Choice won me the 2008 championship, scoring 20 fantasy points in Week 15 and 17 in Week 16.) Everyone loves those guys, except the owners that are beaten by them. (Sorry Jarod!)

Smith is particularly intriguing, provided he stays healthy. The very limited sample size nevertheless suggests he has the potential to put up numbers better than Jahvid Best in that offense. Brown's ceiling isn't quite as towering, but he's a godsend for someone who has been scrambling for anything resembling a featureback. And Reese, well, you could definitely do worse so long as McFadden and half of the Raiders' receiving corps is out. That is unlikely to last through the playoff weeks, but time will tell.

By the way, whoever scheduled Week 16 for Christmas weekend was an idiot. As if Christmas wasn't already stressful and chaotic enough. At least they put Arian Foster's dream Week 16 matchup against Indianapolis well ahead of time on Thursday, Dec. 22 (so Foster owners have time to enjoy and opponents have time to recover) and most of the rest of the action on Christmas Eve Saturday (none at night, thank you) rather than Christmas Day Sunday. But Saturday certainly won't be the end of the madness, unless your title game miraculously does not feature any of the studs on the Packers or Bears (playing Christmas Night) nor any of those on the Saints or Falcons (playing Monday night.) Part or me actually hopes I'm eliminated before then. A small part of me.

Playoff Matchups, Part II

I addressed "being prepared" in my last column, but over the course of additional research I noticed a few more things about the playoff matchups. These observations are unlikely to help you, but they are interesting nonetheless.

Arian Foster is going to dominate. While he's always the prohibitive favorite to be the top-ranked RB in any given week, take a look at who he draws in Weeks 15 and 16: Carolina and Indianapolis, two of the most generous rush defenses. That makes Ben Tate an even more intriguing play, especially with the Texans sure to go even more run-heavy under Leinart and the possibility of Foster's workload being strategically limited. I would have no problem playing Tate as a reliable RB2 in both of those games, ahead of guys like Shonn Greene and Cedric Benson. You could conceivably play Foster and Tate in the same lineup in both games and do quite well for yourself.

DeMarco Murray is another guy who has the chance to explode, as he also has two of the top five most attractive opponents for RBs: Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. At this point, it's inconceivable that Felix Jones will return to the starting role but even he may be usable against those two if you don't have a better option.

Tom Brady draws the long straw among the quarterbacks, getting Denver and Miami, but the most intriguing play by far is Tim Tebow. Tebow against the Patriots deservedly maligned defense in Week 15 has the makings of a fantasy gold mine, and the floor is probably very high for both QBs there. You obviously play Brady if you've got him, and Tebow is at least a Top 10 play. Tebow gets another good matchup in Week 16 at Buffalo, and given his M.O., adverse weather is unlikely to diminish his value.

As the quarterbacks go, so too the wideouts, making Wes Welker one of the best playoff option, but we know now not to trust any of Tebow's receivers. Also looking extremely good for the final two weeks (15/16) are A.J. Green and Brandon Marshall. I wouldn't jump on any other Miami receiver ahead of my normal guys, but I would consider Jerome Simpson and possibly Deion Branch for my third WR spot.

The negative side may be an even greater consideration for you, as savvy juggling may be required to avoid guys that will end up as liabilities. For the passing game, Arizona, Philadelphia, St. Louis, San Diego and the Giants all have tough sledding ahead in Weeks 15 and 16. Now I'm not saying bench your studs, I'm just saying don't expect them to BE studs. You MAY consider benching former studs that haven't been so this season, with Philip Rivers and Desean Jackson being the most glaring examples. Among the running backs, I mentioned Steven Jackson last week, but Ryan Mathews has an even tougher draw, including Baltimore in Week 15. And if you were thinking of playing a resurrected Marshawn Lynch, you might want to think again, as he has Chicago in Week 15 and the RB-killing 49ers in championship week.

The Boy Scout Motto

Be prepared.

That's great advice for those of you lucky enough to be in contention for the fantasy football playoffs, and now is the perfect time to get the jump on your competitors.

No byes this week, meaning everyone is back to playing their studs. But some may easily forget that there ARE byes next week, involving some major major players. Don't make that mistake. As you are shifting into potential playoff mode, remember you still need to fill any holes for next week before looking beyond.

Conspiracy theorists might have a field day with the Week 11 byes: Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh and Houston. That's a mad collection of fantasy talent, and would have been far greater if not for the Peyton Manning injury. The bye teams will certainly have an effect on a supremely critical late-season fantasy week.

By now, you know what you need to do to navigate pitfalls like that, and hopefully you are set for them. And if you are one of the fortunate ones that doesn't rely on those teams, get your postseason roster ready.

For example, drop Dallas Clark for sure. Even if he's back, the guy will not have the right answers for you in Weeks 14-16 and a matchup play is the safer option. You can safely cut the cord on studs-turned-duds like Clark, Knowshon Moreno, DeAngelo Williams, Joe Flacco and Austin Collie. They're not turning the corner anytime soon, so why hold on? A little more caution is urged for guys like Matt Ryan, Chris Johnson and Mike Williams. They MIGHT turn the corner. And if you own Jahvid Best, well, your call, but I think it's more than safe to jump ship on Manning at this point for those of you who have been desperately clinging to his non-IR status.

If Best ends up gone for the season, there is fertile ground for a running back to excel in his stead. Maurice Morris appears to be No. 1 for now, but familiar face Kevin Smith has been brought back with good reviews. And Keiland Williams is built as a goalline vulture. Tough to decide, but Morris is your first play, with Smith and Williams available for the truly desperate or dart-throwing owners. Another dart? How about Tashard Choice? It's only a matter of time for any RB when Mike Shanahan gets a hold of him. Both Detroit and Washington have reasonably favorable playoff schedules for fantasy RBs.

Which brings me to the most critical point of this entry: look at the playoff matchups now. If you are rotating 2-3 guys through one position based on matchups, plan well ahead. You may not have a good option at third wideout for Week 15, so grab a free agent who is. Steven Jackson owners probably know already they'll be hurting against Seattle, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in Weeks 14-16, but perhaps still have time to construct a crafty trade.

And I've said it before, and I'll say it again - get those DSTs lined up. My preseason prediction for the stud Steelers having the perfect storm of a playoff schedule hasn't exactly lined up in either regard, but they're not the only trick in the bag. Buffalo and Tennessee might very well be available now or in the near future in your pool, and present a wealth of opportunity in the win-or-go-home weeks. The Bills, an unexpectedly strong and consistent DST, visit turnover machine San Diego in Week 14 (although that would be a bold play) followed by home games vs. Miami and Denver in what will likely be defense-favoring weather. The Titans, a former stud DST that hasn't lived up to it this year, may draw big-time redemption in Week 15 at Indianapolis and Week 16 at home vs. Jacksonville, representing two of the most favorable opponents.

Thirsty for Thursday

Thursday Night Football is back! Yes!

Now we fantasy junkies have a little fix to tide us over between Sundays. And this week's game is going to be a pretty good one for fantasy followers.

We know Darren McFadden is out, so Michael Bush is an easy play. And ignoring Taiwan Jones also seems logical given his rather surprising (to me) lack of action last week. But where do we go with Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert? I think the ceiling is limited on both because they'll split carries, but it's still a very porous run defense and a charged divisional game. I honestly like either as a starting RB2 this week, projecting at 10-15 points apiece. Slight edge to Tolbert given likely goalline carries and that Mathews is just off an injury, but Mathews could easily rip off a long TD.

For the receivers, Vincent Jackson is the only automatic, but at least five others merit consideration. Denarius Moore was a target hog in Carson Palmer's first start in a Raider uni, suggesting there may be some instant chemistry between the two. Major major upside if true as Moore has shown Kenny Britt-type flashes and Palmer is certainly capable of throwing the ball. Jacoby Ford looked pretty darn good as well, leading the Raider wideouts in receptions, yardage and fantasy points. Vanishing was Darrius Heyward-Bey, but he had put together three straight strong fantasy showings prior to that. If Malcom Floyd is active, he's worth a play as your third WR, and if he doesn't play, you could do worse than rookie Vincent Brown. Brown is best viewed as an under-the-radar dynasty hold, but would be on the radar extremely quickly if he puts up another 79 yards like last week. Today might be the last day to get him for nothing.

Palmer had a strong fantasy day last week, but I'm not buying yet. Backup maybe, but nothing more than a dart as a starter. Philip Rivers finally put up an elite fantasy number last week, but he's been maddeningly mediocre for most of the season. But you have to put him in there again if you don't have a clearly better option and Antonio Gates is the reason.

Either DST would be a desperation play given much safer alternatives like available, but there is at least some upside.

Status and Strategy

You're halfway to fantasy heaven - the football championship.

If you're actually reading this blog then, like me, you have an addiction. And nothing feeds that addiction like success. So if you're 6-2 or better, I applaud you, and I feel bad for your family. If you're 2-6 or worse, I encourage you to continue to make a good fight, and I feel bad for your family.

If you're part of the latter crew, you'll probably have to run the table over the next five weeks in order to make the playoffs. That ain't happening unless you're ridiculously lucky. But that doesn't mean you shouldn't bother anymore. As a courtesy to other owners in contention and to maintain the integrity of competition, continue to make your claims and set your optimal lineup. Winning can still be fun. An added bonus is being able to play some players you like more than others even if they aren't the "best" choices each week. You don't have to throw a game, but you can make alternative choices based on preserving an element of fun for yourself. For me, that might mean playing all the Green Bay Packers in one week. Seriously! That would not be a terrible starting lineup, particularly in a favorable matchup.

(As an aside for those in keeper leagues, stock up now! If you're 2-6 like me, forget about matchups coming up and go directly to next year. As promised, I added Mikel Leshoure as a high-probability lottery ticket.)

If you're in the elite 6-2 or better (and it is elite - in a competitive league, you have to be lucky AND good) take a moment to pat yourself on the back and then get back to business. Your focus has certainly been part of your solid run. Don't make the mistake of switching to cruise control. In your advantaged position, you can trade from a position of power, acquiring a more fitting starter or backup from a more desperate owner without compromising what you've got. You can also consider rostering less-than-obvious handcuffs (Matt Flynn for Aaron Rodgers, for example) for outstanding peace of mind. And if you're streaming through one or more positions, definitely start looking at least one full week ahead so you're not in a waiver fight each week.

For no position is this more effective than for Defense / Special Teams. Streaming there is a very popular strategy, so chances are owners are lining up to make their claims and you're just lucky if you get who you want. Reduce the luck factor. Look ahead to Weeks 10 and 11 now and notice that the Browns are hosting the Rams and the Jaguars back-to-back. The Browns DST hasn't been anything special, but they've done fine against the favorable opponents, and few are more favorable than those.

That also makes Chris Ogbonnaya an even better flyer. His longest run last week was only seven yards, but that was against a stout 49ers defense. Houston isn't much more favorable this week, but next week he should be far more effective against the St. Louis front seven if Hillis and Hardesty are still out. And lost in the mix is that he catches the ball as well as any RB having started his college career as a wideout. (He had eight targets last week!) He's not as physically intimidating as Hillis, but 6'0, 225 ain't small.

Taiwan Jones has to qualify for the short-term replacement list as well with McFadden on the shelf for who knows how long. This is a team built to run, and Jones is actually the fastest RB they've got. I think a lot of people will be surprised at how many carries he gets and how much he does with them. Michael Bush CAN carry the load (he's done it in limited fashion before) but I don't think the Raiders feel that doing that is their best option. I'm predicting no better than a 2-to-1 ratio of carries favoring Bush, and with this team's penchant for the ground game, that means at least 10-12 carries for Jones. I'm also predicting Jones to be the far more effective per-carry guy, but probably because he is able to break off one or two monsters against an unsuspecting Denver defense. Bush is still your goalline back and should have no trouble punching at least one in.

But if you're 6-2, you're unlikely to need either Ogbonnaya or Jones. Those guys are perfect for the 3-5 teams that drafted Hillis or Moreno or a host of other RBs that simply haven't been there.

The 3-5 to 5-3 teams probably have the most fun remaining through the rest of the fantasy regular season. Nothing like a playoff race to ramp up the intensity of each week, particularly when your opponent that week is in the very same race! If you're in that mix, keep doing what you've been doing: optimal combinations, sound reserves and measured risk. You're well past the draft and diamond-in-the-rough stage. You obviously increase your risk if you're on the 3-5 side, but don't go crazy - yet. Like I said, Ogbonnaya and Jones are perfect for you.

Vanishing Act

Another one of my man crushes bites the dust.

First, it was Dexter McCluster. Now, it's Titus Young.

The rookie wideout, who has drawn comparisons to Desean Jackson, appears to be in a fantasy freefall since breaking out with five catches for 89 yards in Week 2. In Week 3, that dropped to four catches for 51 yards. In the past four weeks, you guessed it, 3 for 41, 2 for 14, 1 for 14, and finally 0 for 0 last week. It's a very disappointing downward trend for a guy who was supposed to be a kind of Julio Jones lite, a solid second fiddle to an elite receiver in a strong all-around offense.

Seven weeks in, we have enough information to label guys busts or breakouts. Being a rookie, it's tough to label Young a bust, but he's not a guy you can trust anytime soon. Ditto Robert Meachem. Coinciding directly with the return to prominence of Marques Colston and the surprising emergence of Darren Sproles as a truly dominant factor in the receiving game, Meachem's disappearance has left him alongside fellow Saints afterthoughts Lance Moore and Devery Henderson.

It may be just my impression, but it seems as though WRs in general are the least reliable fantasy commodities, which is why I rarely prioritize them in drafts, although there is an at least equally compelling argument against that strategy. The rationale argument accurately suggests there are frequently less than 10 wideouts you can count on to be every week fantasy starts, so why not grab them as early as possible to lock up the more elusive spots on your roster? The Fred Jacksons and DeMarco Murrays occur with regularity every year, so you can always find an RB2 with upside, but a Miles Austin type breakout is much rarer.

I stick with my strategy though, securing my RB spots plus an elite QB before even considering a wideout. By that time, the top 10 are gone and I'm left with a big pile of hopefully more hit than miss. Desean Jackson is the poster boy for this.

But it's not the failed wideout that will sink you, it's the failed RB1. (Failed QB1s are even rarer than Miles Austin type breakouts. You almost always get what you pay for there.) That honor this season belongs to Chris Johnson, although Rashard Mendenhall is making a good case. Throw in injuries to Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Steven Jackson and Peyton Hillis, and you're looking at six of the top 12 RBs not delivering any value close to draft expectations. And RB2s like Knowshon Moreno and DeAngelo Williams are even larger albatrosses if you were counting on one to be a weekly play for you. That's where the Fred Jacksons and DeMarco Murrays can save you if you're savvy enough to draft an insurance policy (Jackson) or lucky enough to hit the lottery (Murray).

Jackson might be the least likely fantasy MVP in history. Arian Foster was at least speculated to be a sleeper prior to 2010, and was usually drafted in the fifth round or better. Jackson was a lost cause, with his great starting stats from 2010 buried behind his advancing age (30) and the still-never-found-promise of C.J. Spiller.

Jackson may still have a ways to catch Aaron Rodgers this year. Another part of my draft strategy is to forego a backup QB when I draft an elite guy early. That gives me an extra roster spot to fool around with, but leaves me very exposed to a potential injury and of course the bye week. I was hoping my sneaky acquisition of Sam Bradford last week was going to pay off in a potential shootout vs. New Orleans, but alas, I'm stuck with Christian Ponder.

Blaine Gabbert was my first choice on the All Watch List team at the start of the season, and he's advanced to the starting position quicker than Ponder, but Ponder was universally tabbed as the most pro-ready of the 2011 draft class and now he'll get the chance to show it. Given the way Donovan McNabb has been fading it terms of effectiveness, this change can only be good news for the Vikings skill players. Perhaps Percy Harvin will finally emerge as the dominant wildcard wideout he's always been projected to be.

Sneaky Plays
I'm going to dip my toe in a little bit once more. No specifics, but I do expect these guys to be very playable with good upside this week, significantly exceeding their weekly season average:

Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown: I actually think both will have decent fantasy days even if Hines Ward plays. This has the makings of the highest scoring contest of the weekend.

Evan Moore and Greg Little: The switch is very close to being flipped in their favor and the lack of alternatives this week could force that switch now.

Jabar Gaffney: Like Moore and Little, the lack of options bumps him up. And he's got a better matchup than those guys.

Pierre Thomas: On name alone, he's not a sneaky play. But he didn't get his first double digit total of the season until just last week. This will be his second, with his highest ceiling of the year.

Sneaking up on Sam Bradford

Entering the season as a QB2 with high upside, St. Louis' Sam Bradford was consistently drafted as one of the most attractive No. 2 fantasy quarterbacks. Through five games, it hasn't exactly worked out that way as he has only three TD passes. He's only throw two picks, but he's fumbled seven times and been sacked 21 times. Clearly, his greatest asset as a fantasy player is as an attractive opponent for any DST. And while that trend may continue, I also think he'll turn things around for himself now that he has a true No. 1 receiver in Brandon Lloyd as well as former favorite Mark Clayton re-entering the fold soon after starting the season on the PUP list.

Now I'm not recommending plugging him in there this week, especially with his highly questionable status due to a high ankle sprain, but how about next week in what is sure to be a pass-happy shootout at home against New Orleans? I consider him to be one of the best buy-low candidates in the biz, and possibly even available on your waiver wire. His ownership numbers are steadily dwindling, certainly below his potential. Unfortunately, the bye weeks are a tough time to be speculating, but if you've got the spot, he's still a potential homerun, especially in a deep keeper league. If you're going in circles at QB (with a guy like Matt Ryan, for example) and you missed on Tebow, Bradford may be the perfect complementary guy. Don't look to him for this year's playoffs though, as he draws a stingy Bengals pass defense in Week 15 and then has a nightmare trip to what is sure to be a bitterly cold Pittsburgh in Week 16.

You want a favorable fantasy playoff schedule? Try Aaron Rodgers - home dates against Oakland and Chicago (both struggling against the pass) and a trip to Kansas City in weeks 14 through 16. As if he wasn't a difference maker enough already. That's almost unfair to the rest of your pool. No chance you're going to trade for him now - just hope you don't have to face him when it really counts.


The Best Strategy

As mentioned at the start of the season, the Peyton Manning injury ranks among the highest ever in terms of overall fantasy impact (basically sinking all the boats in the Indy offense) but the Jahvid Best concussion is up there. He is quietly the third-most targeted RB, behind only Darren Sproles and Matt Forte, and actually ahead of Ray Rice. Perhaps more importantly, he's also the third-most targeted player in the Detroit offense, behind Megatron and Brandon Pettigrew (a very good buy right now) and adds a dimension that requires a great deal of defensive attention. The Detroit offense will have to be simplified without him, but it remains to be seen how that will be played out. It could lead to even more passing attempts in an offense that is already heavily skewed towards the air game. Some of Best's targets could head the way of Nate Burleson or Titus Young, thus far forgotten fantasy commodities. But it could also mean less success for Matt Stafford if he has no running game to distract the defense and no consistent outlet pass available.

One thing is for sure - Maurice Morris is very fantasy relevant for the time being, and possibly well through the rest of the season if Best's concussion proves lingering. He's experienced in the Lions' system and trusted by the coaching staff, and has virtually no competition for carries with Jerome Harrison knocked out as well. Keiland Williams is basically a Hail Mary that could vulture some touchdowns, but we said that about Peyton Hillis a few years ago and look what happened there. Word out of Detroit practice is that Williams is getting first-team reps alongside Morris. Desperate owners can add Williams if they missed on Morris and just see what happens this week. Williams was exceptional in a two-game stint as Washington's featureback last year. My money is on Best being out awhile and both backs having a good deal of risk-reward value. My money is also on Mikel Leshoure getting at least as many snaps next year as Best with elite value if Best goes down again. Dynasty owners, take note!


Irrational Kicker Crush

I hate kickers. They're totally unpredictable, thus capable of winning or losing you any given week. That said, I am an irrational fan of Sebastian Janikowski. There are actually a lot of good consistent options this year, which is unusual, but I'm married to the guy. So much so that I'm actually considering stashing him even if he's injured. That would be a major fantasy faux-pas. But his ability to put up a monster-long field goal (or two, or three) makes him an every week play with big upside in my mind. Keeping him also prevents me from having to do the too often fruitless weekly research required to stream kickers. If for some reason you feel the same way, and for some reason have an extra spot sitting there during these trying weeks, this could be your cue to snatch him off the waiver wire as his current owner may not. Just something to keep in mind.

This brings me to another point. Along with all the other "nevers" associated with fantasy kickers, never waste a priority waiver claim on a kicker.


A Word on Waivers

Having a general strategy for how to use your waivers will go a long way towards consistent success, and make it easier for you to decide each week. Some people use waivers like they use the bathroom - when you need to go, you go. Nothing sophisticated about that, making it simple to use a top waiver priority on a kicker if you're streaming, or your guy is on a bye. Certainly not my strategy, but a very easy one to use.

Obviously, it depends on your settings, but generally a high waiver priority is something to be cherished for a special occasion. Either for an obvious high-end add, or a one-week asset that you can play ahead of that week's opponent, who likely would have grabbed him had you not. And by high waiver priority, I mean top third of the total pool. If you have such a pick, and there is nothing obvious out there, save it, and hope someone gets careless and drops something better. Then you have a better opportunity to pounce.

The inverse is true if you have a low waiver priority (bottom third of total pool). If you do, you aren't going to advance high enough to make a claim for someone else's bad drop, so don't bother waiting. Put in all your claims ahead of time and enjoy the results. The only exception to this might be late in the season when you're battling one particular other owner, and you want to make sure you stay ahead of him in the claim order. Then you really have to pick your spots.

If you're in the middle third of the waiver priority order, there are any number of ways you can go. Certainly critical needs can dictate using up mid-level claims. but pay attention to the fantasy skills of the other owners in your pool. If they're all savvy, you're not going to have too many opportunities for bad drops, so trying to advance in the order is very unlikely to help you. If you're playing with a bunch of idiots though, not only will there be repeated bad drops, but some of the guys ahead of you in the order at any time may not even notice them. I find playing with idiots kills the sport of it though, and rarely do I last in leagues such as those.

Abandon Ship!

OK, I admit it. I dropped Dexter McCluster.

After he was overshadowed by Jackie Battle(!?) in last week's golden opportunity against Indianapolis, I'm convinced he's not worth a roster spot during the bye weeks, despite having dual position eligibility. He's just not anything more than a lottery ticket and/or desperation play, similar to several available on the waiver wire in any given week. I would not be at all surprised if he re-emerged later this season (remember Jamaal Charles a few years ago?) especially if a coaching change occurs, but for the time being, he's not going to help you much. Keep him on your watch list, but don't bother rostering him.

Unfortunately, this is the time of year when you have to make critical decisions like these, going against your own early-season gut feelings or even against what seems like better judgement. The Colts are loaded with these. Austin Collie has already been dropped in a ton of leagues, and Dallas Clark is next. Possibly even Joseph Addai given last season's example of a lingering injury. And for those of you who drafted and are still clinging to Peyton Manning? Very tough call, very dependent on your record and alternatives.

Just in time for the bye weeks, we've got another deep waiver week sprinkled with RBs and WRs, but headlined by a quarterback of course in Tim Tebow. In general, I'm not a fan of his as a either a real-life NFL QB or as a reliable fantasy asset, but it's impossible to deny the unique value his rushing skills bring to table. I'm just worried about those days when he gets mauled by a smart defense and commits four turnovers. That happens to even the best, but I just think it's much more likely to happen to Tebow. And without giant passing numbers to make up for his errors, he will certainly have negative days, a scary proposition for the most important position on your team. I really think that unless you're in a cloudy QB situation or in a relatively deep keeper league, Tebow is not worth much to you and isn't the smartest use of a high waiver spot. But he is an extremely intriguing lottery ticket.

His effect on RBs McGahee and Moreno will be fascinating. Like Cam Newton in Carolina, he's his own goal-line back, which seems a much greater punch to the gut of McGahee than Moreno, who hasn't sniffed that duty anyway. Moreno, possibly the biggest bust of the season so far, amazingly did not receive a single carry last week, but salvaged his day with a long catch-and-run TD for anyone who was desperate and played him. Going forward, he may actually see a few more dumpoffs from Tebow, but it looks like he's almost useless barring a McGahee injury, which is not an unlikely scenario. Still tough to sit on him through the bye weeks though.

More news out of Denver was the apparent trade availability of No. 1 wideout Brandon Lloyd, who was going to take a fantasy hit with Tebow under center anyway. Lloyd owners should be happy if he leaves, and vultures may elect to pounce on a choice of Eddie Royal or Demariyus Thomas as new options there. Royal is actually probably a solid option as a slot/possession receiver for Tebow, whereas Thomas, despite loaded with talent, is probably not ready for a weekly fantasy role just yet, fresh back from injury and with still a lot of work to do to develop chemistry with Tebow. Upside, sure, and there is very little that would surprise me about Tebow at this point. But I wouldn't bet on it.

Ahead of Royal and Thomas on the WR waiver wire this week were James Jones, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Greg Little. In Jones, you're getting the equivalent of somewhere between Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson, a guy who will have his targets and big days, but is far from a guaranteed producer. Decent bye week play with good upside, but not a guy you want to have to rely on every week. Heyward-Bey is a total hit or miss, and with two hits in a row, the former Top 10 pick is quickly becoming a darling in fantasy circles after two seasons of near total irrelevance. Little is still a mystery, but is expected to see a bump in snaps and targets and has the skill set to do something special with more opportunities. All three are solid substitutions for your regulars and any could emerge down the stretch as fantasy playoff assets.

At RB, take your pick. It's deep, yes, but far from dynamic, as most of them carry big question marks about actual workload. Addai's injury makes Delone Carter AND Donald Brown technically viable in the short-term, although it's hard to expect much even if you are able to decide which is the better play. If BenJarvus Green-Ellis sits, Stevan Ridley will be an intriguing sneaky play, but Danny Woodhead might be back as well, capping the ceiling for either. Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer are only absolute desperation plays with Rashard Mendenhall back, but he's not going to get all the carries. Ryan Torain and Jackie Battle could continue to produce like RB2s, or disappear in favor of a hotter hand.

The only sure workhorse out of these in Week 6 is Earnest Graham, so he's the smartest choice for someone with no viable option at RB. He'll probably get the gig for at least a couple of weeks, and was actually fantasy-serviceable as the third-down back before Blount went down, so he should remain that after Blount's return. I like him quite a bit for the bye weeks, and as a 4th or 5th RB after if you still want the insurance depth.


Sneaky Plays Scorecard

Dexter McCluster
Prediction: 70+ all-purpose yards and a touchdown.
Actual: 5 touches, 18 all-purpose yards
Ouch. I really didn't see that coming. Head coach Todd Haley hinted at working Jackie Battle in more and he wasn't kidding.

Stevan Ridley
Prediction: 70+ yards, 1 TD.
Actual: 7 carries, 13 yards
Double ouch. My radar was way off on both McCluster and Ridley.

Shonn Greene
Prediction: 20+ carries, 100+ yards, 1 TD.
Actual: 21 carries, 83 yards, 1 TD. A little short on yardage, but otherwise fine. This one was easier to predict because of Rex Ryan's proclamation of the ground-and-pound, but it was nevertheless pleasant to see Greene return to fantasy relevance.

My sneaky plays have gotten progressively worse over the course of the season, so I think I'll have to tone it down until my luck changes!

Bye Week Madness

The bye weeks are upon us, and that should compel you to do two things: defend your interests and keep an eye out for bargains.

By defending your interests, I mean retaining as much full-season value as possible when planning for the holes that are going to come across your lineup over the next few weeks. It's not an easy field to navigate, but it IS easy to get caught up in filling a one-week need that actually makes your overall lineup weaker in the long run. The good news is that everyone else is going through the same critical decision-making process, and inevitably some will falter, leaving you the opportunity to swoop in and pick up a player that may have been unattainable previously. Retaining a high waiver position comes in especially handy here, so consider passing up average or positionally deep options during the standard process in favor of using the saved pick for the potential home run that some other owner drops out of desperation.

Where you are in the standings should be a significant factor in how you approach the bye weeks. If you are 0-4, you probably don't have the luxury of sitting on your lineup, but chances are it's not worth sitting on anyway. Go ahead and be aggressive on a week-to-week basis until you get back to .500. That means dropping guys that you may have been counting on for depth, an asset you'll just have to ignore if you're struggling. But remember to think ahead - don't drop a depth guy that's going to play for you in two or three critical weeks.

If you're 4-0 (or even 3-1) you can do some very creative things. Above all, if you are confident in your depth and ability to navigate through the bye weeks, start working the trade wires. You are already dealing from a position of strength, and if you find an owner that has a glaring positional hole coming up, you may be able to lift something a little extra off of him. (As with any trade, consider the head-to-head week against that owner before you make a deal. Don't trade an RB2 with a dream matchup coming up against you!)

Another creative option you may consider is just surrendering a week if that strategy could greatly benefit you down the road. If your lineup is stacked, but you have a number of byes in the same week, it's borderline advisable to proceed without filling those holes in that week just so your lineup looks just as strong after the byes. This is risky, because every win is vital in a short season, but it can have enormous benefits. Especially if it enables you to craft an even stronger lineup going forward instead of using a valuable roster spot for what is nothing more than a one-week flier.


Quarter Pole Evaluation

By far, the best guys to have are the ones that are the most consistent assets week in and week out. These are fairly rare. Four weeks in, there are only two WRs that have reached double digit fantasy totals in each: Megatron obviously, and Greg Jennings. (So much for Finley stealing his targets.) Not a single tight end has done that, but the surprising consistency leader here is Tony Gonzalez, with a low of seven points in Week 1, the only week he has failed to find the end zone. Pretty darn good for a guy who has supposedly lost a step. I bought into the logic as well and named him to my preseason All Overdraft Team. I was right on with Ochocinco and Moreno, but I missed badly on Gonzo.

The QBs and RBs have naturally fared a bit better in terms of consistency. High picks LeSean McCoy and Darren McFadden have done exactly what they were drafted for, and Ray Rice has actually topped the 15-point mark in each of the first four weeks, making him my quarter pole RB MVP. The more shocking four-week double-digit RBs are Ryan Mathews, Fred Jackson and Darren Sproles. I had none of those on my preseason All Reserve or All Under the Radar teams, but who did? Granted, there were a few pundits still pumping Jackson as a great RB3 after last season, and one or two even liked Sproles a lot in his new scheme, but none predicted fantasy gold this brilliant. I liked Mike Tolbert, Brandon Jacobs and Willis McGahee as the superior depth guys, and I think all of those have panned out as expected as great backups, but certainly nowhere near Jackson.

The steady QBs (15 or more fantasy points each week) include three of the usual suspects: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and the absolutely incomparable Aaron Rodgers, who has put up four straight 20+ weeks culminating in last week's explosion. Get used to it. Rodgers will win more than one week on his own this season. Not only does he have as many great targets as any other QB in the league, his offensive line is now patched up and he remains as big a rushing TD threat as any RB on the team. The other two QBs excelling in the consistency category are Matthew Stafford and Matt Hasselbeck. Stafford's breakout was widely predicted, but I foolishly submitted to peer pressure and tabbed Matt Ryan just ahead of him in that regard. When in doubt, go with your gut, and my gut said Stafford, so shame on me. Silly as it may sound, Hasselbeck was also on my preseason radar but I did not hype him at all, going instead with Eli Manning as my All Reserve choice and Kerry Collins as my Under the Radar choice. (Good call, genius.) The savvy veteran Hasselbeck, who boasted a history of reasonable and reliable fantasy success, was clearly entering a better situation in Tennessee than he was leaving in Seattle and you had to figure both he and Britt would benefit from the new partnership. I would never have predicted he would succeed much without Britt, but he's already proven me wrong. A round of applause is needed for him and Gonzo, two veterans thrown away in most circles, but I remain as yet unconvinced that Hasselbeck is truly an every-week play. That silvery coach is turning back into a pumpkin any day now.

I'm not sure Cinderella's ride will come to an end this week though, as Hasselbeck draws a Pittsburgh defense that has been average at best through the first four weeks. My golden child DST still has a wonderful playoff schedule to look forward to down the road, but has been pretty disappointing thus far and is becoming a progressively riskier play each week. This week is especially problematic, as Tennessee has been a tough nut to crack for opposing DSTs, including Baltimore, the overwhelmingly most powerful DST so far with a league-leading 14 turnovers, four resulting in TDs. In most leagues, the Ravens have rewarded their owners with 20 fantasy points in every week except Week 2 at Tennessee, when they actually flat lined or even cost their owners a point or two. That's an extremely scary proposition for Pittsburgh DST owners this week. Play with extreme caution and low expectations. For the second straight week, I prefer the opposing DST more than Pittsburgh's own. Houston proved me right last week, so play the Titans with confidence if you have the opportunity. There are a ton of dark horse DST plays this week, so you should have plenty of options even if the best ones aren't available.

The Patriots are not one of them, however, and I'm afraid to even play the stud Jets DST on the other side against the cash register New England offense. Good things may happen, no doubt, but there's just as much chance that the Jets defense will get summarily picked apart. And playing the Patriots DST, even against a Mark Sanchez that looked like a deer in the headlights last week, is a huge mistake. They are just not getting it done in any way shape or form and cannot be wisely played until they show some semblance of life.


Top Running Back for Week 5?

This is shaping up to be a wonderful week for some running backs, and one game will have huge fantasy fireworks on both sides. Tune in to the Raiders at the Texans for the Foster-DMC show starting at 1pm ET. The 2010 version of Arian Foster will be having his first true return engagement and anything short of 120 slashing all-purpose yards and two TDs will have to be considered a major disappointment. Four TDs would not be a shock because there is nothing close to him as an offensive option with Andre Johnson out. On the other side, expect Darren McFadden to grab the spotlight back at every chance and put up similar numbers. The two most thrilling RBs are going head-to-head. It just doesn't get any better.

I'm leaning heavily towards Foster as the top RB for Week 5, but DMC certainly has a shot. So does Ryan Mathews given the diminishing number of healthy options in that offense and Norv Turner's suggestion this week that a lot more touches for him would be highly beneficial. And now that Brandon Jacobs is doubtful for Sunday at home against Seattle, you can count on Ahmad Bradshaw for 25 or so touches in a very favorable matchup. Speaking of which, you've got upstart Fred Jackson at home against the exceptionally generous Philadelphia rush defense. Obviously Adrian Peterson is always a threat to top the charts in a given week, and this week he's home vs. Arizona.

Your guess is as good as mine.


Sneaky Plays
If you're not lucky enough to have one of the RBs listed above, you may need some help. Here are some options for bye week or injury substitutions:

Dexter McCluster: 70+ all-purpose yards and a touchdown.
If there is any week for him to step into the void left by Jamaal Charles, this is it. His last chance before his bye week to show he is something special, and a good opponent to do it against. He's a great risk play for an empty WR spot if you play in a league where he has that eligibility, but also would be fine in the RB spot if he holds true to this prediction.

Stevan Ridley: 70+ yards, 1 TD.
No Danny Woodhead means a lot more carries for the up-and-comer against a surprisingly unintimidating Jets rush defense. Rex Ryan's recent frustration will likely mean a greater emphasis on stopping the run this week, but I think it will be pounder BenJarvus Green-Ellis that takes the bigger hit in that regard, and how can you focus on defending the run when the Pats are way more dangerous through the air? Considered in conjunction with Ridley's strong showing last week, these factors seem to make him an excellent choice as a bye fill this Sunday.

Shonn Greene: 20+ carries, 100+ yards, 1 TD.
He qualifies as a sneaky play this week because he's basically a forgotten man among the high-drafted RBs. He’s gonna get the rock this week, and get it a lot. The ground-and-pound is back, and Greene is the primary beneficiary, especially against a reeling Patriots defense. Expect LT and McKnight to be serviceable as well, with at least five fantasy points each.

Sneaky Plays Scorecard

Another subpar week - back to the drawing board.....

Jason Campbell
Prediction: 300+ yards, 3 TDs.
Play instead of: Schaub, Flacco, Romo, Ryan
Actual: 344 yards, 1 garbage-time TD.
The closing score made his line at least respectable. He wasn't far off of Romo and Ryan, and was indeed better than Schaub and Flacco.

Alex Green
Prediction: 70+ all-purpose yards, 1 TD.
Play instead of: McGahee, Moreno, Tate, Green-Ellis.
Actual: 3 carries for 12 yards.
Major miss. Even with the game in hand, the Packers stuck with Starks, probably to see if he can do the job full-time. Starks' performance was more than serviceable in this offense, but hardly explosive or intimidating like I believe Green might be. We'll just have to wait, probably until next year if Starks and Grant stay healthy the whole year. Moreno and Tate were equally valueless, but McGahee and Green-Ellis had very strong games.

Jacoby Ford
Prediction: 75+ yards, 1 TD.
Play instead of: any Saints WR.
Actual: 0 receptions on only 2 targets, but avoided a zero with a nice 30-yard run. That put him in the same neighborhood as the Saints' leading WRs, Lance Moore and Robert Meachem, who had 5 fantasy points each, while Henderson and Colston finished below Ford. Disappointing given the hype and the opponent, but he probably still has a little rust.

Tampa Bay DST
Prediction: 3 turnovers, 1 TD. Low-scoring affair.
Play instead of: Pittsburgh DST.
Actual: 1 turnover, 4 sacks
Well at least I was right on not playing Pittsburgh. The Colts played conservatively, but managed two big scoring plays to Pierre Garcon, making the Bucs a middling at best DST this week.

Will the real Ryan Mathews please stand up?

If you, like me, drafted Ryan Mathews high in a keeper league headed into his rookie year, and accepted the risk of keeping him into this year, the last two weeks have been like manna from heaven. I drafted him with visions of LT dancing in my head. What I got was a lump of coal. Not a Donald Brown lump of coal, but a lump of coal nevertheless. But that has all finally changed. Or so I thought.

A nagging foot injury kept Mathews out of practice Thursday, and with another reliable guy in the wings (Mike Tolbert), why would the Chargers risk Mathews come Sunday? Will he be active? Probably. But not prominently featured like he was last week, when he looked like he owned the field. I think that at least for this week, we're back to close to an even split, with Tolbert getting the call down low.

The value of each for Week 4 is dependent on the state of the rest of the offense. Gates is almost certainly out, and Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd are not 100 percent. If they struggle in the passing game, scoring chances won't be as plentiful, killing Tolbert. If the offense does click, Tolbert should be considered above most average options because he'll probably take at least one in. Mathews should be reasonably productive either way, but not like last week.

Going forward, it's a quandary. Does Norv Turner trust the high-talent hot hand and let Mathews go nuts? Or does he go back to the committee approach he preached in the preseason? I personally love the committee system from a real-life perspective (two different and fresh backs, defense has to constantly adjust) but there's no doubt Mathews is far more likely to put a defense on its heels. The lead-with-your-head Tolbert adds a completely different dimension that doesn't seem to be in line with Chargers football, but certainly represents a unique option on their offensive palette. There is very little doubt that Turner will do whatever creates the best chance for the Chargers to win consistently. We just don't know what that is yet.

A commitment to Mathews would kill my man crush Tolbert, but I'm OK with that. One of the most enjoyable things about fantasy football is the emergence of studs, and Mathews has the potential to be just that. The guy we didn't think had that potential that is proving us all wrong is Fred Jackson.

Currently the No. 3 RB in standard settings fantasy leagues, Jackson has posted triple-digit totals in each of his first three games, and monster 20-pointers in the last two. Now that's a fantasy. I personally believe he will come back down to Earth at some point, but maybe not if Ryan Fitzpatrick maintains his success and the team continues to win. Against New England last week, Jackson looked like Arian Foster, and if 3-0 Buffalo finishes 12-4, Jackson will probably finish with stats like Foster. This is hard to believe coming from a 30-year-old, but the guy keeps himself in notoriously good shape and was exceptional when featured last year, so why not? At this point, C.J. Spiller is absolutely no threat. And if you believe in the potential, there still may be an opportunity to buy low from those who do not.

Jackson's last two games have been in shootouts against Oakland and New England, and those two foes will face off this week in what should turn into another laser show. Expect more great things from Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker. The running back usage will be fascinating, as Stevan Ridley showed some flash last week, but is likely still behind BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead in what could eventually morph back into the least fantasy relevant rushing committee in the NFL. On the other side, it's scary to think what Darren McFadden will be able to do to the Patriots considering what Jackson just did. And given New England's inexplicable ability to defend the big pass, Denarius Moore and even a now-healthy Jacoby Ford should be projected to perform well.


Open Auditions for the RB Draft Class of 2011

Before the start of the season, fantasy owners had to abandon ship on Ryan Williams and Mike Leshoure, at least for one season, much like we did for Ben Tate and Montario Hardesty in 2010. By now, we also know where we stand on Mark Ingram (big timeshare but big upside) and Daniel Thomas (a lot of potential if he can stay healthy.) This may be the week where we get a good look at the rest of the class of 2011.

With Jason Snelling out and Michael Turner struggling a bit, we'll definitely see more carries and perhaps some real explosiveness out of Jacquizz Rodgers. And with Frank Gore hurting, Kendall Hunter will look to build on a solid Week 3 with at least few more looks and many more if he starts to prove more effective than Gore. Ditto Stevan Ridley, although New England will forever be a passing offense with too many options in the backfield.

The guy to really watch this week is Alex Green. A big back (6'0, 225) with good speed (4.45/40), Green has long-term featureback potential although his ceiling this year was supposedly limited to a change-of-pace role at best. I'm not so sure. Grant is out for Week 4, so Green will definitely get a good look behind Starks, the guy everyone else is hyping for a big breakout. Green's situation is somewhat comparable to Starks' last year, so we may have to wait as much as a year for this one to truly pan out from behind Starks and Grant, but this week should be a nice preview. And if it's good enough, he at least enters the conversation going forward for this year in one of the league's top offenses.

The DeMarco Murray machine will have to wait with Felix Jones putting up a good showing last week, but at least he looked better than Tashard Choice. Speaking of guys who used to be assets for the Cowboys, Marion Barber will make his season debut for Chicago this week. The preseason chatter was about him being the goal line back, but I'm not going to believe it until I see it.


DST Paranoia

I love Pittsburgh as a DST play late in the season due to cupcake stretch schedule, but it will be a bumpy ride this weekend. After posting a negative total in the opener at Baltimore, I'm scared to play the Steelers in a similar situation at Houston, especially with Arian Foster returning to the fold. Amazingly, I like the Houston DST more. It was exposed by New Orleans last week, but the Steelers are not the Saints. Contrary to seeming logic, recent season trends have the Steelers as not a bad opponent for a DST, and the Texans DST is on the way up.

Looking for options to plug in for the Steelers, Houston isn't a poor alternative. Washington (at St. Louis) was a popular choice on the waiver wire, but I don't trust them 100 percent, and Steven Jackson is probably back for the Rams. Tampa Bay (hosting Indianapolis) looks like a great choice with Curtis Painter slated to make his first career start. He's got the support of his teammates, but will be suspect under the bright lights on Monday Night on a hostile field.


Sneaky Plays

Jason Campbell: 300+ yards, 3 TDs. This matchup is a textbook shootout and should be played accordingly.
Play instead of Schaub, Flacco, Romo, Ryan.

Alex Green: 70+ all-purpose yards, 1 TD. I think this one's over at halftime, and the Packers see what he's got for them in the future. Obviously far less likely if it turns into a close game.
Play instead of McGahee, Moreno, Tate, Green-Ellis.

Jacoby Ford: 75+ yards, 1 TD. He'll be highly motivated in his first game of the season, and draws the perfect opponent for showing off.
Play instead of any Saints WR. Colston's potential return further muddies the already murkiest receiving situation in the league. Some of them will undoubtedly succeed, but which ones? I give that at least another week.

Tampa Bay DST: 3 turnovers, 1 TD. The Colts' defense has actually stepped up, and the Tampa offense has not, so this will be a grinding, low-scoring affair.
Play instead of Pittsburgh DST.

Adding the "play instead of" increases my risk significantly, and the guys I chose this week are especially bold. I'm tempting fate here, so take these with a grain of salt. This could be the week that my predictions implode, in which case I may cower back to a more conservative ideal.

C+ on my Sneaky Plays

You win some, you lose some.

I was admittedly a little erratic on this week's Sneaky Plays, but I did successfuly pick a couple of gems:

Victor Cruz
Prediction: Close to 100 yards as the default possession receiver. Conceivably giant day.
Actual: 110 yards and two TDs. Giant day. Three receptions hardly counts as a possession receiver, but I'll take it. This breakout should establish him as the kind of consistent sneaky WR3 play that Manningham was last year.

Lance Moore
Prediction: Over 100 yards on 8+ receptions.
Actual: 9 receptions, although only 88 yards. And a TD. Again, I'll take it. Like I said, he was cheap before this game - not anymore.

As well as a couple of duds:

Patrick Crayton
Prediction: 100+ yards and a touchdown.
Actual: 47 yards, no TD. Malcom Floyd's unexpected presence put a little crimp on things, but he probably wasn't 100 percent and Gates was out, so Crayton shouldn't have come up this short. But I'm seriously stumped by the whole team on this one. Anyone not named Mathews had a disappointing fantasy day, particularly given the advance expectations.

Chad Ochocinco
Prediction: 75+ yards and a TD.
Actual: 28 yards. In my defense, he dropped a sure TD that would have put him right into my projected range, but that's my fault for trusting him! I knew I'd get burned.

David Nelson was the only one of my big four WR waiver picks that met the receiving yardage expectation of 70+, but failed to find the end zone. Denarius Moore did, but it came on a crazy 23-yard gadget run that saved an otherwise quiet fantasy day. Titus Young and Eric Decker were closer to 50 yards. OK, but nothing you couldn't find on the waiver wire any week.

Motoring in Motor City

In case you haven't noticed, the Detroit Lions are pretty good. And for once in a long time, I'm not just talking about Megatron.

The cat is out of the bag on these cats. If you were smart enough to draft Matt Stafford as your backup quarterback in the mid-to-late rounds, you've hit the jackpot on fantasy's newest every-week QB1. Jahvid Best has still not broken off a trademark big run, but it hasn't mattered. (And he hasn't suffered any injuries.... yet.) It's not Calvin Johnson with the most receptions or receiving yards - that would be Nate Burleson. In Week 2, rookie Titus Young emerged as a threat to put up similar numbers in this multi-pronged attack, which is a lock to go three-wide on a regular basis. Brandon Pettigrew has gotten off to a quiet start, but his time will come, and Tony Scheffler has two TD receptions in the meantime. Keiland Williams even got into the act with a short TD run, and not all of them in the future will come in garbage time. Even Jerome Harrison would possibly be a viable fantasy play if he were to start garnering a few more snaps.

There is no shortage of options here, much like Green Bay and New Orleans, so I'm going all-in for the duration. Get whatever Lions you can while they're still affordable, because they're only going to get better. Megatron was a bonafide first-rounder, and you may have missed any window on Stafford and Best. But Burleson can probably still be had relatively cheaply, and Pettigrew and Young may even be on your waiver wire.

Granted, they put up a horde of great stats against Kansas City, a team that looks like it's handing out touchdowns like promotional T-shirts. So technically the jury is still out. But with a healthy Stafford at the helm, it's hard not to get excited about the possibilities. Last Sunday was just a sampling.

Stafford is emblematic of what so far is clearly a quarterback's year, with a handful of elite WRs as the prime beneficiaries (or benefactors, depending on how you view it.) The season is very young, obviously, but through two weeks you have seven quarterbacks averaging better than 20 fantasy points per game in a standard settings league, and two others just short of that. And that's not including Michael Vick, Philip Rivers or Peyton Manning. Last year, Vick was the only one, with a dominating average near 25. (Aaron Rodgers just missed it, and probably would have gotten there if not for missing a game and a half due to injury.) Last year, the average of the top 12 was 17.11. This year, it's five points better at 22.00. There's no way that holds up for the season, but there sure are a lot of points being provided from that money position so far. The problem is, everyone's got one of those guys now, so your high pick on Rodgers or Vick hasn't exactly made much of a difference yet. Sure, perennial gunslinger Tom Brady is not surprisingly leading the way with a robust 31, but Stafford, Cam Newton and Ryan Fitzpatrick are new names among the top five.

Rivers will have a pretty good shot to try to crack that after this week, as the Chargers are hosting a reeling Kansas City Chiefs team that allowed four passing TDs each to Stafford and Fitzpatrick. (Only two other teams have allowed more than four passing TDs over the first two games combined.) This will be perhaps the most intriguing game for fantasy owners this week for a variety of reasons. Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert are both legitimate starts, especially as receivers out of the backfield and as clock-killers with a big lead. Mathews has a very real chance to have a huge game and grab the lion's share of the carries going forward as he has been the far more effective rusher of the two. One more game like that and the true timeshare may be done and my vision of Mike Tolbert as the dream RB3 / upstart RB2 will be done. For the receivers, Malcom Floyd is out, and Patrick Crayton is in. Antonio Gates is a giant question mark after not practicing all week, leaving Crayton's arrow pointing even higher. On the other side, we'll get the answer to what's going to happen in the backfield post-Jamaal-Charles. As you know, I like Dexter McCluster. A lot. But the more I think about it, the more I respect Thomas Jones, although probably still not as a fantasy asset. This is a guy that has always been a champion among his peers, a motivated hard-worker that stays in great shape and leads by word and by example. His offensive line may give that little extra push for him now that he needs their support more than ever as the default lead back. I still say this is tough sledding for anyone on that team, and I still think McCluster has the bigger upside, but a motivated Jones is not someone to underestimate. He may surprise us all and end up with a season akin to Fred Jackson's 2010 (over 1000 yards-from-scrimmage to go with seven TDs.)

Waiver Claim Carousel

I mentioned in my column earlier this week that it was a deep one for waiver claims, and it got a lot deeper with some late-breaking news. Roy Helu was the big RB pickup alongside McCluster and Jones, and there was definitely widespread speculation on both Demarco Murray (the wiser investment) and Tashard Choice. Thursday evening, there was a mad rush for free agent Bernard Scott on the news that Cedric Benson would be likely to miss Weeks 4-6 via suspension, and it's an excellent speculative pickup given his talent and the schedule. We might actually see a changing of the guard in real time with advance warning. But Scott will have to prove something significant during his audition, or else it will be quickly back to CedBen. With Peyton Hillis missing practice Friday with illness, Montario Hardesty popped back up on the radar, and he's another guy that may just need one full-game look to be relevant. He's not vanishing Hillis, mind you, but a more consistent change-of-pace role going forward could be in the works regardless of whether or not Hillis suits up Sunday. Ditto Javon Ringer. Jerious Norwood? Not so much. Steven Jackson and Cadillac Williams may both miss Sunday's home game, but Norwood is not an option against the Ravens. I'm lukewarm on Chester Taylor if Beanie Wells sits. It's hard not to like anyone against the Seahawks, but it is Chester Taylor after all. That ship sailed a while ago. Nevertheless, that brings the overall total to nine options for this week at RB. And here I thought it was the WR waiver that was deep.

Titus Young is my personal favorite of the Class of Week 2, but I believe Buffalo's David Nelson has the best chance to shine on this particular weekend against a New England secondary that was performing poorly even WITH starting safety Patrick Chung, who's potentially out for this game with a broken finger. Denarius Moore and Eric Decker were the other high-end claims, and I like their respective chances going forward, certainly more so than most of the RBs listed above. None of these guys can be considered sneaky plays just a week after coming out, but for the record, I like each of them for 70+ yards and at least two scores among the foursome. Count on Nelson for one of those, as well as triple-digit yardage.

Sneaky Plays

Patrick Crayton: 100+ yards and a touchdown. Even more if Gates sits. Great opportunity for the Chargers to get his feet really wet with a win almost assured. They'll throw it to him the whole game, even with a good lead, while Gates and Jackson take the second half off. A dark dark darkhorse for the same kind of opportunity is rookie wideout Vincent Brown, if he's active. Actually, pretty much any active Charger is a good play this week.

Victor Cruz: Close to 100 yards as the default possession receiver. Unfortunately, Brandon Stokley is also a good candidate for this kind of line, and if so, saps Cruz' value. Cruz does bring a unique playmaking and deep threat ability that Stokley lacks, so he could conceivably have a giant day. (Pun intended.) I'd excitedly start him if I was in a real pinch.

Lance Moore: Over 100 yards on 8+ receptions. He's close to 100 percent, Colston is still out, this will likely be a shootout, and Drew Brees loves him. If he's available in your pool, this is the last chance to get him for nothing.

Chad Ochocinco: 75+ yards and a TD. This one may come back to bite me, but he's due, and the Patriots are motivated to get him involved. Like everyone else, he gets a bump with Hernandez out

Outside of my prediction for the big four WR waiver wire pickups, that's all I've got for you this week, guys. All wideouts. I've got a good feeling about Demarco Murray for some reason, but I'm not going to bet on it.

P.S. A couple of conflicting indicators on my Nate Solder TD-reception watch. After releasing Dan, the lesser of the two Gronkowskis, the Patriots are now down to one tight end on the roster, and eyeing Solder for at least spot duty there seems to make sense. But they also declared starting tackle Sebastian Vollmer out for this week, so they'll probably need Solder much more at his natural position on a full-time basis. My gut says he’ll still see a handful of eligible snaps this week, but won’t have more than one target. Probably not in the end zone, but you just never know.

Go Go Gadget

Okay, the big news of the week is obviously Jamaal Charles. And every pundit in the world is saying it will be a Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster split going forward, and that both are worth adding.

I agree. To some extent.

I think it's correct to assume Thomas Jones probably gets more carries, and probably plugs along with a sub-4.0 per carry average, possibly sub-3.0. He's probably also the first choice at the goalline, although I firmly believe LeRon McClain will get a look there as well. McClain has done it before, and Todd Haley has little left to lose.

The problem is, there probably are not going to be that many goalline chances. The same thing that's killing Addai this year (Delone Carter notwithstanding) is what will prevent Thomas Jones from being anything close to a weekly play, or even a high upside bye week play. There is simply nothing to see here, even if he does get 15-20 carries a week. Think Jamal Lewis with Cleveland at the end of 2008. For the season, Lewis had 279 carries but never reached 100 yards in a game. He had 4 TDs, none after Week 9.

No, the guy to gamble on is McCluster, who at least has a chance to be a regular worthwhile play, especially with WR eligibility. He'll likely get as many touches as Jones (though not as many carries) and he'll definitely do more with them. He also has a good chance at the occasional return TD. I hate to say I told you so, but.....

Strangely, I'm not sure if McCluster's value is higher with Charles or without him. (Probably without.) Charles could easily put defenses on their heels, creating windows of opportunity for McCluster, especially whenever they lined up in the backfield together. Now McCluster will have fewer holes to find, but he does have the talent to burst through and rip off big gains when he does find them. Now if he could just stop fumbling. I'm convinced that one fumble is the inverse equivalent of roughly 2-3 TDs to a head coach or offensive coordinator. You're allowed to have the odd fumble as long as you're racking up the TDs. But if you're fumbling more than once every two times you hit paydirt, you won't have your dream job for long, Steve Slaton. McCluster is rapidly approaching the red zone on this one, and I'm not talking about that area of the field down near the goalline.

Another big news item, though merely a continuation of a story that began in Week One, is that Cam Newton is for real. He threw three INTs, yes, but Cutler could do that in his sleep. With no defenders on the field. And this was against Green Bay, not Arizona. He had 400+ passing yards again thanks mostly to 46 passing attempts. That just naturally adds up, and those attempts will continue to stay high if Carolina finds itself behind frequently, which is likely. And perhaps most startling of all, he led the team in both rushing attempts (10) and yards (53) on a team that still fields both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart on its active gameday roster! He has a short rushing TD in each of his two games so far. If you were lucky enough to be the guy that waiver wired him last week, congratulations on winning the 2011 fantasy football lottery. Awfully early, I must say. Now granted, we're only two weeks in, and defenses will gradually find more and more effective ways to slow the guy down a bit, but man, what a start!

What a start for Rob Gronkowski as well. He has 86 yards in each of his first two games, and has seven TD catches in his last six regular season games, failing to find the end zone just once in that span, with or without Aaron Hernandez there to steal targets. Well, Hernandez is definitely out, for 1-8 weeks depending on who you ask. I cannot imagine Gronkowski can possibly be much better than he has been, but it's good to know you can at least count on that kind of production in the interim. I'll confidently gamble on him as the best fantasy tight end play until Hernandez returns. The Hernandez targets are likely to be spread out though, so everyone gets a little bump, including Ochocinco and Woodhead. And you want a sneaky play? How about rookie offensive guard Nate Solder, who was declared as an eligible tight end on roughly 10 plays Sunday after Hernandez went down. He didn't see a target, but trust me, those are coming. So is a touchdown reception. (Too bad he doesn't have TE eligibility in any fantasy football systems.... yet.) Solder actually started his college career at Colorado as a tight end, so he knows how to catch and run, and he's taller than anyone else on the field (6'9, and 315 to boot) so a jump ball in the end zone seems like a logical option. The Patriots already have the old eligible-tight-end-trick in their playbook (remember Mike Vrabel?) so why not bust it out now when you've got an extra offensive lineman to use as a wildcard on the end, either as the best blocking tight end in history or as a sneaky outlet for the ultra-accurate Brady? If it works, defenses will be absolutely dizzy once Hernandez actually returns. I would never have imagined this scenario actually created more incentive for the Patriots to draft him, but Belichick is a mad genius and the two tight end sets worked great last year, so I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to hear that that factored into it somewhere.

Solder is not addable yet, but he would probably be well down the waiver list anyway given the alternatives right now. This is a great week to have a bad waiver position because there are a ridiculous amount of solid options, especially at wide receiver. In addition to McCluster as a wildcard wideout, you've got Eric Decker (who?) at the top of the list, but there are probably 2-3 others that could also morph into WR3s and a handful of others that at least qualify as much better than the last WR at the end of your bench. If Deion Branch is for any reason still out there in your league, he's a must add with Hernandez out. Ryan Fitzpatrick is another auto-add in the few leagues he's still around. At tight end, you can forget about Chris Cooley knocking down Fred Davis' value, and Dustin Keller is steadily trending up. It looks like Davis can be played every week with confidence, and Keller is almost back to that status as well. Roy Helu should be the top RB add over McCluster and Jones, but they're close, and you could definitely make a case for Delone Carter although dearth of critical opportunity will limit him. Javon Ringer may start to see some more carries, but I still don't like him behind Chris Johnson, and I'm not about to be fooled again by Tashard Choice (or Demarco Murray) but they will be hot adds as well. Choice, my once wonderboy, has fallen far off the lofty perch that won me my semifinal when he ran it in from 40 yards out in the closing minutes of Week 15 in 2009. You're looking at close to 10 top waiver picks in many leagues, so it will be like Christmas morning for everyone.

Sneaky Plays Scorecard
Brandon Jacobs
Predicted: 75+ yards plus one touchdown.
Actual: 67 all-purpose yards and a TD. More stifling Bradshaw's value than really making a fantasy niche for himself, but decent enough.

Ladainian Tomlinson:
Prediction: Close to 100 all-purpose yards, 50/50 shot at a TD.
Actual: 15 all-purpose yards. Really, LT?

Devery Henderson:
Prediction: 100+ yards plus 1 TD.
Actual: 103 yards and a TD. Okay, it was only three receptions, one going for a 79-yard TD, but still!

Nate Burleson:
Prediction: Just short of 100 yards, but good enough.
Actual: 93 yards. This is getting scary.

Dustin Keller:
Prediction: 50+ yards and a touchdown.
Actual: 101 yards and a TD. Better than I expected. I hope you bought low when I told you to.

I went 4-for-5, folks, a week after going 4-for-6 with a couple of sac flies. I'm not sure from where I'm receiving this divine insight, but I'm going to enjoy my hot streak while it lasts. 0-for-5 is coming soon enough.

Sunday Morning Quarterback

This blog was intended to address unique topics at otherwise slow times in the fantasy football news cycle. I am realizing more and more that early Sunday is one of those times. I'm absolutely itching for the games to begin and yet I know I'll be a mental vegetable by the end of the day again because of them. Why do I subject myself to this torture?

As a million ideas float through my head (was dropping Deji Karim for Brandon Jacobs a good idea?), one that keeps recurring is who will be the next fantasy superstar in the passing offenses of Green Bay and New Orleans?

Opening Night, New Orleans at Green Bay, was an absolute delight for football fans and fantasy fans alike, and the concept was on full display. Randall Cobb and Darren Sproles, total afterthoughts on Draft Day, were as fantasy-useful as they were real-life exciting. Robert Meachem AND Devery Henderson both had touchdown receptions - usually, it's one or the other, and you never know which. Donald Driver, for once, didn't put a huge crimp on the values of the other Green Bay receivers.

Colston going down lifts every Saints receiver up a peg, but Lance Moore's return probably has the opposite effect once it comes to fruition. Adrian Arrington (!?) is the Hail Mary play today if Moore sits again, but it's hard not to get at least a little excited about Sproles and Meachem regardless, and so too Jimmy Graham. It's sooner rather than later that this guy breaks out in a monster way. I'd also be OK playing Henderson with more confidence than usual, at least until Moore is indeed back.

In Green Bay, I'm itching for the dominant Jermichael Finley to emerge, but it's going to be tough will all the options up there. Jordy Nelson is now firmly in the mix, as well as two legit RBs. I think Finley will ultimately be fine if not Gates-esque dominant, and Greg Jennings, though probably not as featured as he was last year, will still be No. 1. Nelson seems to be separating as much on the depth chart as on the field, but we said the same thing last year about James Jones, who you can't help but think still lurks in the background. And Cobb, how can you keep him off the field for much longer? I guess when you've got the guys you do ahead of him, you can take your time, but dynasty leaguers want action now! Don't even get me started on reception-vulture Driver, the Derrick Mason of the Midwest. Whenever this team is playing critical or grinding midseason games, the savvy veteran will be a big part of the gameplan, thwarting the hopes of fantasy owners everywhere.

The reality is that both of these teams have enough depth to field two full corps of receivers each, a big part of why Rodgers and Brees are two of the most reliable fantasy QBs in the biz. Even without Colston, his top wideout, Brees is unlikely to take a hit. Rodgers was nearly unaffected by the loss of Finley last year and my guess is he'll be that much better with him healthy this year.

The RB2/3 Debate and Handcuff Dilemma

One of the terms it takes some getting used to in fantasy football is RB1, WR2, etc. Frankly, I can't find anything anywhere that describes exactly what the terms mean to everyone, but one thing is certain - the lower the number, the more valuable they are on a relative scale.

It's safe to say any player with a "1" designation is an every-week fantasy starter, a reliable play with pretty big upside. No one can say that they will never stink it up, but certainly less frequently than players with a higher number designation. The more 1s you have in your lineup, the stronger it is.

We'll get to the 2s and 3s in a minute, but once you get past that range, you're basically shooting craps. A WR4/5 (Devery Henderson?) may or may not pan out in any given week. An RB4/5 is usually no better than the lesser half of a committee, someone you'd play only out of desperation and hope for a lucky TD. Because you will never field a lineup with all 1s, and you don't want to have to play any 4/5s, a big part of optimizing your lineup, for the season and for each week, is choosing the correct RBs and WRs in the 2/3 range.

RB2s are often supposed to be every-week starters, and yet it's not unusual for them to get stuffed (Week 1 exhibits: Moreno, Greene, Blount, DeAngelo Williams.) You can combine two of them to cover one roster spot and then mix-and-match based on opponent, but they're still far less reliable than RB1s even in good situations against favorable opponents. And it still hurts almost as much if you used a high draft pick on one and he gets injured. My opinion is that it's better to have a higher volume of more speculative RB3s (Jacobs, Tolbert, etc.) that you were able to snag in the later rounds than to rely on two expensive RB2s to cover that spot. It gives you even more options to play matchups or hot hands, as well as extra lottery tickets. At the very least, you should always prioritize a deeper insurance plan consisting of RB3s, for covering injury or bye weeks, instead of expecting a few big guns to carry you successfully all the way through the season. They're also extremely useful as trade enhancers if needed.

Unfortunately, carrying these guys burns valuable roster spots, but I'm not talking about rostering seven RBs (or even six, although that is what I personally prefer.) I just think not carrying a few extra bodies (particularly at that injury-prone position) is playing with fire. However, one common related strategy I frequently disagree with is rostering handcuffs. Granted, if you have a bonafide guaranteed handcuff who previously has shown the ability to step successfully into a full workload (McGahee?), or to be worthwhile occasionally despite being in a clear supporting role (Michael Bush), it's probably worth it. But if there are 2-3 relatively unproven guys right behind your starter, don't bother. Too likely to be a hot hand or committee situation if your guy goes down. An RB3 from another team is much stronger insurance and thus a much better use of a roster spot.

Our object lesson this week is Cadillac Williams. The reasons he was available on so many waiver wires was 1) few knew for sure if he was the primary handcuff, as Jerious Norwood is also on the Rams' roster, and 2) he was pretty lousy as the feature back to start 2010 in Tampa Bay. His 140 all-purpose yards after Steven Jackson went down last week were as eye-opening as they come, but I'm not hopping on this train yet. Chances are none of the Eagles were psychologically prepared for him to be the same kind of force that Steven Jackson is, and you can bet the Giants will gameplan with him in mind, particularly with Amendola on the shelf as well. Two contrasting wrinkles though: the Giants' defense is not operating at full capacity, and Steven Jackson might actually play! Despite a beat-up opponent, I wouldn't want to pencil Cadillac in as my starter only to find out way too late that Jackson was going to be active. Even if you used a high waiver pick on him, I'd leave him on the bench unless you really have no other viable plug-in options. And even if Jackson is inactive, I don't see Williams marking a double-digit fantasy total.

Sneaky Plays
A little note on sneaky plays. I'm not recommending these guys over top options. Play your studs. Period. If you lose with your studs, you can still hold your head high. But if you lose cuz you gambled, that's on you. Sneaky plays are merely recommendations for guys you could consider playing over any 2/3 option that you're not so confident in coming into the week, and great alternatives for starter-level players you are having serious doubts about. (Read: Austin Collie)

Brandon Jacobs: 75+ yards plus one touchdown. A lot of buzz this week about the Giants getting away from the power game. I think they go back to that in front of the home crowd and Jacobs gets a good share of carries including at least one successful goalline carry.

Ladainian Tomlinson: Close to 100 all-purpose yards, 50/50 shot at a TD. In case you missed it, he led the Jets in receiving last week with 73 yards on six receptions. The guy can still bring it. With Holmes a question mark coming in, he may get even more looks, and the Jets are also planning to get more running plays in. If Greene is ineffective like he was last week, expect to see a little more LT.

Devery Henderson: 100+ yards plus 1 TD, just like last week. This one's not exactly sneaky considering the lack of healthy bodies in one of the league's best passing attacks, but it will still take a glaring doubt for you to consider playing him over one of your normal starters.

Nate Burleson: Just short of 100 yards, but good enough. I'm a little shy on predicting a TD, but one (or more) is definitely possible. The Chiefs made Ryan Fitzpatrick look like Joe Montana after losing Eric Berry last week and Matt Stafford is making his home debut. Burleson is just going to hang out and rack up stats.

Dustin Keller: 50+ yards and a touchdown. I see him garnering a lot of short receptions and continuing to be redeployed as a red zone target, especially if Holmes is not 100 percent. A good buy-low candidate as a strong backup tight end.

Revisiting a former man crush:
One of the hottest names this week is James Starks, as he seemed to grab hold of the starting gig in the second half of last week's Green Bay game. I think the jury's still out here and I wouldn't rush to christen him an RB2 yet as some pundits have. Ryan Grant may be less explosive, but he's definitely more proven. Subtract Grant's longest run (10 yards) and Starks' excellent 17-yard TD scamper, and we end up almost dead even on yards-per-carry. We don't know exactly what is going to happen when they get down to the goalline, but those darn Aaron Rodgers sneaks and John Kuhn vultures will put a cap on enhancing either back's value. My prediction is that Grant continues to start games, gets more of the precious goalline carries, and alternates with Kuhn in clock-killing mode. Starks will get just as many carries and snaps as he probably fits better into the design of this offense, and will definitely have more highlight plays. All-in-all, I think Starks is the better guy to own here, but I think it's very similar to the Tolbert-Mathews split in San Diego. All are somewhat risky plays but with significant upside in potent offenses.