It only took 13 weeks, but James Starks is finally relevant. And even a reasonable upside play this week at Detroit if you're short on options. He burst onto the scene with a shocking 18 touches last week, garnering nearly 80 yards as the primary early down option. I wouldn't count on him for a touchdown, but it's certainly possible.
This is the time of year when complete unknowns come out of the woodwork to win fantasy championships. (Last year, it was Jerome Harrison, Jamaal Charles and Arian Foster.) Unfortunately, most of the managers in position to win championships simply have stronger options, so a lot of these guys never see active duty.
If you are one of those owners who made the playoffs not on the strength of two stud RBs, or lost one late (like Gore,) it's time to do some Christmas shopping.
Starks is one of the better ones, but don't get too excited too quickly. His upside is limited by the focus on the passing game, a few quality alternatives in the backfield, and Aaron Rodgers' penchant for sneaking it in himself when at the goalline.
Tashard Choice is really the guy to roll with here. Despite a few hiccups that seemed to be illogically held against him, he has excelled each time he has been given a real role. This week is only moderately attractive, but when championships are decided in Weeks 15 and 16, Choice draws Washington and Arizona. It doesn't get much better than that. I suspect he retains his new complementary gig even after Barber is back at full strength, and quite possibly becomes the best of the three Dallas RBs in those games. I predict he's good for at least 10 fantasy points in each of the remaining games, although his upside is capped by limited touches.
The cat is out of the bag on Chris Ivory, but it remains to be see how his role develops now that PT is back on board. He certainly not a bad option if he's available, but I believe his touches will steadily decrease and he thus becomes a progressively riskier play.
Starks and Ivory were my big recommended grabs earlier this season, but Ivory was running hot and cold while Starks didn't get his feet under him until last week. Some of my other prognostications proved equally accurate: Danny Woodhead, Fred Jackson and LeGarrette Blount. I also seem to be right on some of my recent playoff DST recomendations: Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Dallas, though we'll have to wait and see how they really do over the next few weeks. (Seriously, Dallas is a great grab for Weeks 15 and 16 if they're still out there.) Others, particularly those where I advised skepticism, proved faulty: Jacob Tamme, Mike Goodson and Ryan Torain.
There is nothing more fun than gambling and winning on a longshot, and little more frustrating than gambling and losing when you benched a more reliable, albeit lower upside, option. But that's what fantasy football is about. It's as much about your gut feeling and chance/luck as it is about the hard statistics. Otherwise, it wouldn't be as much fun.
This will likely be my last column of the year as there is not much I can do to help you from here on out, and not much that hasn't been said repeatedly by someone else already. Make the most of what's left of the fantasy season, and then get ready to get back to enjoying "real" football, in the NFL playoffs, when you can safely go back to rooting for the guys you like regardless of whose fantasy team they were on!
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Saturday, December 4, 2010
Calling an Audible
It's Week 13. This week or next is the final week of the regular season for pretty much everyone. And that puts you into one of three camps: In already, fighting for a playoff spot, or looking forward to next year.
If you're in already, congratulations. Take a bow. Now get back to work. Just because you've qualified doesn't mean you can relax. This means more intensely scouting your upcoming matchups, just as you would for the bye weeks, to see if there is a spot here or there you can tinker with. Take a look to see if your playoff seeding is already set in stone. If it is, forget about your spot positional plays that have good matchups this week, especially that ideal Week 13 DST if you happen to be streaming. You may be able to drop one or more of them for a high upside play in Week 15 instead, and you can certainly modify which depth guys you choose to carry.
Don't bench your studs, but if you're a Gore owner in need of a bandaid, these would be among your better insurance options out there:
Mike Hart: Solid play even in a timeshare earlier this season, consistently outperforming Donald Brown. With an attractive remaining schedule, he's about the best emergency plug as long as Addai remains out.
Cadillac Williams: Certainly more of a desperation play than Hart, but high upside nevertheless. He's made the most of his limited touches recently and like Hart, he's got an excellent remaining schedule. Chances are he will be a solid contributor for the Bucs' playoff run.
Anthony Dixon: Equal to Cadillac in terms of desperation. He played second fiddle to Westbrook after Gore went down, but you can expect a heavier workload given Westbrook's fragile frame (including at least some goalline carries) and he certainly inherits the starting job in the very possible event that Westbrook gets injured. I wouldn't play him this week at Green Bay, but I certainly would consider him next week at home against Seattle.
Tashard Choice: Lightning in a bottle as evidenced by his brief tenures last year as a half timeshare back. If he succeeds in limited work this week (pretty good chance against Indy) expect to see more of him even after Barber is back. And that means a possible golden opportunity in Week 16 at Arizona.
If you're not in it yet, you get to sweat it out with the rest of us this week. Perhaps more than any other week, that means fielding your optimal lineup. Sounds obvious, but there's a lot more to it than usual.
For example, if you're favored by a lot, or have a stronger top-to-bottom roster than your opponent and think your lineup can beat his, you can play it relatively conservatively and simply rely on your regular guys to get the job done.
You can also strategize to mitigate your opponent's potential value players by finding affiliated value of your own. The most obvious play here is to play a receiver that your opponent's QB is commonly throwing to. You can also avoid creating an opportunity for your opponent to double dip anywhere in terms of value, so stash that WR even if you don't play him, and don't play a DST going against your opponent's top skill players. You want to avoid trying to double dip yourself, as one player struggling player would likely adversely affect the other.
Conversely, if you're a significant underdog, risk is your friend. Playing a goalline back or common long bomb target in a likely high-scoring contest, instead of a featureback or possession receiver in a more defensive battle, is one way to make up for potential shortcomings. So is loading up on one team, avoiding those players complementary to your opponent's starters, and/or playing the DST going against your opponent's best players.
This also means calling more fantasy audibles, specifically changing your lineup for the later games after gauging where you stand in the early ones. If you played it conservative and find yourself in a deeper hole than expected towards the end of Sunday's early games, you can swap in a higher-upside but riskier option for the later games to try to make up the deficit. The inverse is true as well - if you put in some risky options to try to beat a favored opponent, and find yourself in good shape Sunday afternoon, you can pull out one or two of those lottery tickets for more consisent performers that may be better options for maintaining your lead to secure the win. This strategy will become even more relevant to everyone once the playoffs begin, so it's great practice.
This is also the time where you'll be able to add to your usual weekly frenzy by keeping an eye on the other matches that affect your chances of a playoff berth. Obviously, you want to root for your competition to lose even if it means a stronger team (already in) increases its lead in the standings. You'll find yourself rooting for players that you long forgot about, although it definitely increases your chances of having conflicting rooting interests based on all the different things that you want to happen.
And even if you're part of the unfortunate 30 percent that's already eliminated, don't stop now. Remember, there are only a little over three months out of the year available to play fantasy football. Don't waste any of them. You're stuck in limbo until next September, pal, might as well get your final licks in.
From a competitive integrity/fairness standpoint, you want to play to the whistle, meaning fielding your best lineup and trying to beat every opponent all the way to the end. But perhaps you can take a less rigid approach to give yourself a more enjoyable sendoff. Don't be afraid to play your emotional favorites (one of mine is Danny Woodhead) if they're within reasonable range of the "better" choices. Use that as an easy tiebreak.
And if your opponent this week is out too, you can have even more fun with it. Set each other's lineups (no drops allowed). Place a separate wager, with him and with other guys who don't qualify, to extend the losers' bracket through Week 16 or 17. And start planning for next year. The draft is only nine months away!
Whether you're in, out or on the bubble, don't forget about shooting for the overall points title. There may or may not be money involved, but there is always pride. You may be 4-8, but that doesn't neccessarily mean you had a bad team.
If you're in already, congratulations. Take a bow. Now get back to work. Just because you've qualified doesn't mean you can relax. This means more intensely scouting your upcoming matchups, just as you would for the bye weeks, to see if there is a spot here or there you can tinker with. Take a look to see if your playoff seeding is already set in stone. If it is, forget about your spot positional plays that have good matchups this week, especially that ideal Week 13 DST if you happen to be streaming. You may be able to drop one or more of them for a high upside play in Week 15 instead, and you can certainly modify which depth guys you choose to carry.
Don't bench your studs, but if you're a Gore owner in need of a bandaid, these would be among your better insurance options out there:
Mike Hart: Solid play even in a timeshare earlier this season, consistently outperforming Donald Brown. With an attractive remaining schedule, he's about the best emergency plug as long as Addai remains out.
Cadillac Williams: Certainly more of a desperation play than Hart, but high upside nevertheless. He's made the most of his limited touches recently and like Hart, he's got an excellent remaining schedule. Chances are he will be a solid contributor for the Bucs' playoff run.
Anthony Dixon: Equal to Cadillac in terms of desperation. He played second fiddle to Westbrook after Gore went down, but you can expect a heavier workload given Westbrook's fragile frame (including at least some goalline carries) and he certainly inherits the starting job in the very possible event that Westbrook gets injured. I wouldn't play him this week at Green Bay, but I certainly would consider him next week at home against Seattle.
Tashard Choice: Lightning in a bottle as evidenced by his brief tenures last year as a half timeshare back. If he succeeds in limited work this week (pretty good chance against Indy) expect to see more of him even after Barber is back. And that means a possible golden opportunity in Week 16 at Arizona.
If you're not in it yet, you get to sweat it out with the rest of us this week. Perhaps more than any other week, that means fielding your optimal lineup. Sounds obvious, but there's a lot more to it than usual.
For example, if you're favored by a lot, or have a stronger top-to-bottom roster than your opponent and think your lineup can beat his, you can play it relatively conservatively and simply rely on your regular guys to get the job done.
You can also strategize to mitigate your opponent's potential value players by finding affiliated value of your own. The most obvious play here is to play a receiver that your opponent's QB is commonly throwing to. You can also avoid creating an opportunity for your opponent to double dip anywhere in terms of value, so stash that WR even if you don't play him, and don't play a DST going against your opponent's top skill players. You want to avoid trying to double dip yourself, as one player struggling player would likely adversely affect the other.
Conversely, if you're a significant underdog, risk is your friend. Playing a goalline back or common long bomb target in a likely high-scoring contest, instead of a featureback or possession receiver in a more defensive battle, is one way to make up for potential shortcomings. So is loading up on one team, avoiding those players complementary to your opponent's starters, and/or playing the DST going against your opponent's best players.
This also means calling more fantasy audibles, specifically changing your lineup for the later games after gauging where you stand in the early ones. If you played it conservative and find yourself in a deeper hole than expected towards the end of Sunday's early games, you can swap in a higher-upside but riskier option for the later games to try to make up the deficit. The inverse is true as well - if you put in some risky options to try to beat a favored opponent, and find yourself in good shape Sunday afternoon, you can pull out one or two of those lottery tickets for more consisent performers that may be better options for maintaining your lead to secure the win. This strategy will become even more relevant to everyone once the playoffs begin, so it's great practice.
This is also the time where you'll be able to add to your usual weekly frenzy by keeping an eye on the other matches that affect your chances of a playoff berth. Obviously, you want to root for your competition to lose even if it means a stronger team (already in) increases its lead in the standings. You'll find yourself rooting for players that you long forgot about, although it definitely increases your chances of having conflicting rooting interests based on all the different things that you want to happen.
And even if you're part of the unfortunate 30 percent that's already eliminated, don't stop now. Remember, there are only a little over three months out of the year available to play fantasy football. Don't waste any of them. You're stuck in limbo until next September, pal, might as well get your final licks in.
From a competitive integrity/fairness standpoint, you want to play to the whistle, meaning fielding your best lineup and trying to beat every opponent all the way to the end. But perhaps you can take a less rigid approach to give yourself a more enjoyable sendoff. Don't be afraid to play your emotional favorites (one of mine is Danny Woodhead) if they're within reasonable range of the "better" choices. Use that as an easy tiebreak.
And if your opponent this week is out too, you can have even more fun with it. Set each other's lineups (no drops allowed). Place a separate wager, with him and with other guys who don't qualify, to extend the losers' bracket through Week 16 or 17. And start planning for next year. The draft is only nine months away!
Whether you're in, out or on the bubble, don't forget about shooting for the overall points title. There may or may not be money involved, but there is always pride. You may be 4-8, but that doesn't neccessarily mean you had a bad team.
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