Saturday, December 11, 2010

It's About Time!

It only took 13 weeks, but James Starks is finally relevant. And even a reasonable upside play this week at Detroit if you're short on options. He burst onto the scene with a shocking 18 touches last week, garnering nearly 80 yards as the primary early down option. I wouldn't count on him for a touchdown, but it's certainly possible.

This is the time of year when complete unknowns come out of the woodwork to win fantasy championships. (Last year, it was Jerome Harrison, Jamaal Charles and Arian Foster.) Unfortunately, most of the managers in position to win championships simply have stronger options, so a lot of these guys never see active duty.

If you are one of those owners who made the playoffs not on the strength of two stud RBs, or lost one late (like Gore,) it's time to do some Christmas shopping.

Starks is one of the better ones, but don't get too excited too quickly. His upside is limited by the focus on the passing game, a few quality alternatives in the backfield, and Aaron Rodgers' penchant for sneaking it in himself when at the goalline.

Tashard Choice is really the guy to roll with here. Despite a few hiccups that seemed to be illogically held against him, he has excelled each time he has been given a real role. This week is only moderately attractive, but when championships are decided in Weeks 15 and 16, Choice draws Washington and Arizona. It doesn't get much better than that. I suspect he retains his new complementary gig even after Barber is back at full strength, and quite possibly becomes the best of the three Dallas RBs in those games. I predict he's good for at least 10 fantasy points in each of the remaining games, although his upside is capped by limited touches.

The cat is out of the bag on Chris Ivory, but it remains to be see how his role develops now that PT is back on board. He certainly not a bad option if he's available, but I believe his touches will steadily decrease and he thus becomes a progressively riskier play.

Starks and Ivory were my big recommended grabs earlier this season, but Ivory was running hot and cold while Starks didn't get his feet under him until last week. Some of my other prognostications proved equally accurate: Danny Woodhead, Fred Jackson and LeGarrette Blount. I also seem to be right on some of my recent playoff DST recomendations: Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Dallas, though we'll have to wait and see how they really do over the next few weeks. (Seriously, Dallas is a great grab for Weeks 15 and 16 if they're still out there.) Others, particularly those where I advised skepticism, proved faulty: Jacob Tamme, Mike Goodson and Ryan Torain.

There is nothing more fun than gambling and winning on a longshot, and little more frustrating than gambling and losing when you benched a more reliable, albeit lower upside, option. But that's what fantasy football is about. It's as much about your gut feeling and chance/luck as it is about the hard statistics. Otherwise, it wouldn't be as much fun.

This will likely be my last column of the year as there is not much I can do to help you from here on out, and not much that hasn't been said repeatedly by someone else already. Make the most of what's left of the fantasy season, and then get ready to get back to enjoying "real" football, in the NFL playoffs, when you can safely go back to rooting for the guys you like regardless of whose fantasy team they were on!

Saturday, December 4, 2010

Calling an Audible

It's Week 13. This week or next is the final week of the regular season for pretty much everyone. And that puts you into one of three camps: In already, fighting for a playoff spot, or looking forward to next year.

If you're in already, congratulations. Take a bow. Now get back to work. Just because you've qualified doesn't mean you can relax. This means more intensely scouting your upcoming matchups, just as you would for the bye weeks, to see if there is a spot here or there you can tinker with. Take a look to see if your playoff seeding is already set in stone. If it is, forget about your spot positional plays that have good matchups this week, especially that ideal Week 13 DST if you happen to be streaming. You may be able to drop one or more of them for a high upside play in Week 15 instead, and you can certainly modify which depth guys you choose to carry.

Don't bench your studs, but if you're a Gore owner in need of a bandaid, these would be among your better insurance options out there:

Mike Hart: Solid play even in a timeshare earlier this season, consistently outperforming Donald Brown. With an attractive remaining schedule, he's about the best emergency plug as long as Addai remains out.

Cadillac Williams: Certainly more of a desperation play than Hart, but high upside nevertheless. He's made the most of his limited touches recently and like Hart, he's got an excellent remaining schedule. Chances are he will be a solid contributor for the Bucs' playoff run.

Anthony Dixon: Equal to Cadillac in terms of desperation. He played second fiddle to Westbrook after Gore went down, but you can expect a heavier workload given Westbrook's fragile frame (including at least some goalline carries) and he certainly inherits the starting job in the very possible event that Westbrook gets injured. I wouldn't play him this week at Green Bay, but I certainly would consider him next week at home against Seattle.

Tashard Choice: Lightning in a bottle as evidenced by his brief tenures last year as a half timeshare back. If he succeeds in limited work this week (pretty good chance against Indy) expect to see more of him even after Barber is back. And that means a possible golden opportunity in Week 16 at Arizona.

If you're not in it yet, you get to sweat it out with the rest of us this week. Perhaps more than any other week, that means fielding your optimal lineup. Sounds obvious, but there's a lot more to it than usual.

For example, if you're favored by a lot, or have a stronger top-to-bottom roster than your opponent and think your lineup can beat his, you can play it relatively conservatively and simply rely on your regular guys to get the job done.

You can also strategize to mitigate your opponent's potential value players by finding affiliated value of your own. The most obvious play here is to play a receiver that your opponent's QB is commonly throwing to. You can also avoid creating an opportunity for your opponent to double dip anywhere in terms of value, so stash that WR even if you don't play him, and don't play a DST going against your opponent's top skill players. You want to avoid trying to double dip yourself, as one player struggling player would likely adversely affect the other.

Conversely, if you're a significant underdog, risk is your friend. Playing a goalline back or common long bomb target in a likely high-scoring contest, instead of a featureback or possession receiver in a more defensive battle, is one way to make up for potential shortcomings. So is loading up on one team, avoiding those players complementary to your opponent's starters, and/or playing the DST going against your opponent's best players.

This also means calling more fantasy audibles, specifically changing your lineup for the later games after gauging where you stand in the early ones. If you played it conservative and find yourself in a deeper hole than expected towards the end of Sunday's early games, you can swap in a higher-upside but riskier option for the later games to try to make up the deficit. The inverse is true as well - if you put in some risky options to try to beat a favored opponent, and find yourself in good shape Sunday afternoon, you can pull out one or two of those lottery tickets for more consisent performers that may be better options for maintaining your lead to secure the win. This strategy will become even more relevant to everyone once the playoffs begin, so it's great practice.

This is also the time where you'll be able to add to your usual weekly frenzy by keeping an eye on the other matches that affect your chances of a playoff berth. Obviously, you want to root for your competition to lose even if it means a stronger team (already in) increases its lead in the standings. You'll find yourself rooting for players that you long forgot about, although it definitely increases your chances of having conflicting rooting interests based on all the different things that you want to happen.

And even if you're part of the unfortunate 30 percent that's already eliminated, don't stop now. Remember, there are only a little over three months out of the year available to play fantasy football. Don't waste any of them. You're stuck in limbo until next September, pal, might as well get your final licks in.

From a competitive integrity/fairness standpoint, you want to play to the whistle, meaning fielding your best lineup and trying to beat every opponent all the way to the end. But perhaps you can take a less rigid approach to give yourself a more enjoyable sendoff. Don't be afraid to play your emotional favorites (one of mine is Danny Woodhead) if they're within reasonable range of the "better" choices. Use that as an easy tiebreak.

And if your opponent this week is out too, you can have even more fun with it. Set each other's lineups (no drops allowed). Place a separate wager, with him and with other guys who don't qualify, to extend the losers' bracket through Week 16 or 17. And start planning for next year. The draft is only nine months away!

Whether you're in, out or on the bubble, don't forget about shooting for the overall points title. There may or may not be money involved, but there is always pride. You may be 4-8, but that doesn't neccessarily mean you had a bad team.

Saturday, November 27, 2010

Illegal Block?

Whether or not you have qualified for your fantasy playoffs, now is the time to make your preparations for that possibility.

Dump that mediocre fourth RB and fifth WR that were keeping you afloat during the bye weeks. If you still have a third QB, you're insane. He's not helping you. The only justification for holding onto these guys is a great potential matchup in the semifinal or championship week (usually Weeks 15 and 16) or simply to prevent a potential opponent from using him against you.

This brings up an interesting dilemma. Is it OK to "block" other owners, specifically an upcoming head-to-head opponent, by rostering an inactive player that they might actually use against you? ESPN's default rules say that impeding other owners is not allowed, but it identifies more the practice of cycling guys through waivers, not specifically single-player acquisitions and certainly not simply retaining a player you no longer intend to use.

If allowed, roster moves like these create unique advantages and should be used accordingly. If not allowed, etiquette and integrity prevent using them. It all depends on your individual league, but it's most important that every owner knows what the boundaries are and operates within them. It is your responsibility to know what they are, and it's in your best interest to operate within them to your maximum advantage while simultaneously trying to prevent a similar advantage an opponent can use over you.

Keeping a player that you won't use just to prevent a potential opponent from using him against you is almost universally acceptable. So if one of your potential opponents in the coming weeks is desperate for a quarterback, you may want to keep that third guy after all. Although if he's comparable to multiple guys on the waiver wire already, there's no point because your opponent can just as easily pick up one of those guys. But take a look at potential favorable matchups just in case. Good examples here are Jon Kitna and David Garrard, who host Washington in Weeks 15 and 16, respectively. You'd feel pretty silly if you dropped Garrard and then lost because of him in Week 16. Obviously, if your potential opponents have Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers, they're not going to play Garrard. But if they have Eli Manning or Matt Schaub, they might sneak him in.

Cycling players through waivers is almost universally frowned upon, but some leagues actually allow it, either expressly or via a gentlemen's agreement. There are infinite combinations of using this to your advantage if allowed, but it's usually safe to assume it's not.

The gray area falls in single-player acquisitions, specifically acquiring a player that you are unlikely to use with full knowledge that your opponent that week would likely use against you. This commonly occurs with injured RBs, whereby you acquire your opponent's backup when the starter gets injured, even though you still have four viable RBs ahead of him. Your opponent basically gets "unfairly" screwed.

But there is rational justification for such a transaction, the most logical of which is acquiring the player with the intent of trading him to another player that needs an RB. No owner should be denied of a tradeable asset, even if such a trade never comes to fruition. (It's a tougher sell after your trade deadline though!)

The more borderline transaction would be acquiring the best available QB (or two) during your opponent's QB's bye week when there is no real current or future benefit to you. I'm actually in favor of allowing transactions like these because it requires the offending owner to burn a legitimately valuable roster spot. It's thus a critical decision, like any other. Conversely, I'm not in favor of allowing cycling guys through waivers because it does not require using any more roster spots than the single-player acquisition method (thus the sacrifice is much smaller for the individual benefit) and it unnecessarily compromises the pool of available players for the entire field or participants.

Regardless, your individual league's settings and all the participants' knowledge of them are, as stated, the most critical factor in deciding what transactions you can/cannot or should/should not make. Know them and use them, and make sure your opponents know them and use them too. There's nothing better than participating in a league with owners just as savvy and as motivated as you.

If you find yourself in a league debating what is OK and not in terms of blocking, try proposing a rule whereby owners must roster any acquired player through a full week of games. This forces owners to burn that roster spot for the duration and make much more critical choices in terms of its timely use, while still allowing the potential for strategic blocks. And if you want to get really crazy, try requiring owners to activate any player acquired in the week in which they were acquired. That makes all acquisitions even more critical/strategic, but stifles a lot of the vital ability to acquire players specifically for future use. Probably not worth instituting such a rule, but interesting nonetheless.

The subject of future use becomes especially important to keeper and dynasty leaguers at this time of year. Whether or not you've made the playoffs, you can start planning for next year, at least minimally with an available roster spot or two. And the number of keepers you have is the determining factor for your strategy. If you have a small number (four or less) it is highly unlikely any acquisition right now will make your cut for next year, so don't even bother. If you have more though (6-10) you might be able to draw a lucky lottery ticket like Arian Foster. I grabbed him on a whim in a six-keeper league during his late surge last season, thinking he was one conceivable answer in the backfield for an otherwise juggernaut offense, and thus fantasy gold. The drafting of Ben Tate didn't help, but Tate's injury and Foster's solid preseason did. Nevertheless, he was still my final cut, just behind Dallas Clark. Whoops. I also kept Shonn Greene. Double whoops. But these kinds of opportunities are out there all the time, and it's the prudent owner that takes advantage via small calculated risks at this time of year.

If you're in a full keeper dynasty league, the strategies shift considerably. You can build a strong top-to-bottom squad, with a roster full of presently usable assets that will keep you competitive for multiple seasons, or you can use some of your spots for higher upside futures, which is generally the better strategy. There is a long list of guys that qualify as future-but-not-present values, but some of the best bets include Tashard Choice, Bernard Scott, Arrelious Benn, Demariyus Thomas, Sam Bradford and Josh Freeman. Matt Stafford, and more recently James Jones, have extremely high potential dynasty value and should definitely be grabbed if they are still available in your pool. Among the tight ends, I like the Saints' Jimmy Graham, but he may be a tough weekly play regardless given the ridiculously high number of options that Drew Brees has.

This started as the year of the tight end, and stayed true as much, but for different reasons. What was once an extremely deep pool became shallow in a matter of a few weeks, but it still adds up to the same thing: most owners have the same access as any other owner to about the same value at the position. There were a ton of high end guys to start (10+ points per game), and now a ton of mediocre guys (4-5 points per game). Antonio Gates, the only option that was ever truly elite, is now creating fits for his owners. Midseason darling Aaron Hernandez is now being regularly dropped for Rob Gronkowski, as if it makes a difference. You might make a case for Jason Witten, Vernon Davis or Jacob Tamme, but in reality, there are no more truly reliable options available.

Saturday, November 20, 2010

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

When you're fighting for a fantasy playoff spot, there's nothing worse than picking the wrong guy to play in a given week, and losing the match because of it.

Week 10 was arguably the signature week for this reality in 2010. Jacoby Jones and Joel Dreessen, two of my favorite plug-and-plays against a highly favorable opponent, both put up zeroes. On the other side, Mike Thomas was putting up a much more serviceable line even before his Hail Mary catch made him a top 10 guy.

In a week where former backup Michael Vick broke the all-time fantasy football record for QBs, and at least 10 quarterbacks had monster weeks, Peyton Manning was nearly invisible. He wasn't even in the top 20. But I highly doubt any of his owners DIDN'T play him. It just seems like not having Clark, Collie and Addai is hurting him a lot more in fantasy than in reality. This would be an extremely difficult guy to bench, but if he doesn't start doing more, owners are going to have to at least consider it if they have other high-end options.

I'm going against the grain here, but I'm recommending Kevin Boss as a legit TE plug-in option this week and next. Risky, but good upside. Philadelphia and Jacksonville are both generous to tight ends and Boss got his most looks of the season last week with Steve Smith out, finishing with 81 yards and a touchdown. The problem with taking a stab at Boss is that there are probably now plenty of alternatives, even with all the injuries to elite TEs. With the bye weeks over, owners are dropping their reserves, putting Boss way down the list. The more popular pick is Jermaine Gresham, and I can't exactly argue with that. He's fresh off a big game at Indianapolis and now has a home game against the Bills, who basically hand five points to every tight end as soon as the opening kickoff occurs.

I've written before about tight end matchup ratings being less reliable than others, and I'm not wavering from that. But when you come into weeks where there are a hodgepodge of options after the top four of five, like this week, it's yet another tool at your disposal. Boss is basically a Hail Mary here, but he could easily outproduce Chris Cooley, a much more conventional choice. Gresham is probably mathematically the better play, and it's easy to get excited about his fantasy playoff schedule.

Several sites offer matchup ratings, and ESPN's built-in one on the team pages (OPRK) is about the best lazy man's option ever invented. I give them credit for putting a lot of useful defaults right there for you to make an informed decision every week. (Reminder: Ignore the projections.) Unfortunately, it is reflective of the entire season, which does not necessarily reflect recent performances, either in the positive or negative.

Fantasy football is a lot about What-Have-You-Done-For-Me-Lately. Both in the subjective (the player himself) and the objective (the opponent). The best site I have found so far to give you an idea of what a guy is up against, for the upcoming weeks and for the playoffs, is fftoday.com. The specific section is

http://fftoday.com/stats/fantasystats.php?o=3&PosID=10&Side=Allowed&LeagueID=1

These graphs quickly map out the most favorable schedules by position, reflecting how opponents have fared against each position over the past five weeks. And what you want to be looking at right now are your playoff weeks. Granted, you have to get there first. But now that the bye weeks are over, you should have at least a roster spot or two to prep for the playoffs. Start getting your claims in now, because the attractive plays aren't going to last. You can always switch them later, but you might as well take a few gambles with whatever spots you've got now.

There aren't going to be many position players on the wire that are necessarily going to be better than the guys you've got for those weeks. You definitely want to stick with your studs over speculative picks, even in tough matchups, when the prize is on the line. But if you've got a marginal guy in your starting lineup, it's worth stashing another guy that might be a better option later. The guy that comes to mind for me is Robert Meachem, with plus matchups in Weeks 15 and 16 and a couple of others even before that. (Don't be fooled - Baltimore is a plus matchup this season.) With PT and Bush back soon, this attack will take off once again. I really believe the defending Superbowl champs will be gold in the fantasy playoffs. Great news for owners of Drew Brees. I also like Arrelious Benn (and especially Josh Freeman for you Matt Schaub owners. Totally worth it even if you have to trade for him.)

The wisest use of those extra spots though is to pick out your DST path. I mentioned this before, but it bears repeating now. Based on plus matchups, you can plan right now for which DSTs you want to use in each of the remaining weeks. Ideally, you will find two that you can rely on to compliment each other for the rest of the season, one one week, the other the next, and so on. Carolina is easily the most attractive potential opponent right now - almost any DST against them has an immediate fantasy advantage. They have Atlanta in Weeks 14 and 17, Arizona in Week 15, and have a match-made-in-fantasy-heaven for Steelers owners in Week 16. The Steelers are arguably the best DST play at any time, especially in common playoff weeks 14-16 (THREE home games vs. Cincy, the Jets and Carolina), but they are not going to be available in your pool.

Your focus should be on Atlanta. Arizona is actually one of the stronger DSTs this year, but mostly due to the inordinate frequency of TDs. The Cardinals' DST has scored at least one TD in five of its nine games, and twice has scored two. But hosting a seemingly attractive opponent (Seattle) last week, the Arizona DST did not score and finished in the negative. Very risky play. And their Week 16 opponent is Dallas - who knows which Cowboy offense will show up, the one that was totally deficient for the final four games of the Wade Philips era, or the new Jason Garrett model that humbled a strong DST (Giants) on the road in Week 10? I think Arizona is OK in Week 15, but that may be it.

Atlanta, on the other hand, has just one DST TD this year, but has been much more consistent as a unit even though their average is only middle-of-the-road. The Falcons follow up their Week 14 at Carolina with Week 15 at Seattle, representing arguably the best combination in those critical weeks. I think that's the team to start owning now in preparation for that.

You could also make a great case for Tampa Bay, who draws a suddenly hopeless Washington in Week 14, followed by Detroit and Seattle in Weeks 15 and 16. The Buccaneers have a good team that's in contention - they're going to play hard to the wire and each of those squads can be exploited for one reason or another.

And if you really want to reach, try Dallas. Ordinary at best on the defensive side of things this year, the originally high-ranked DST may be coming back to life under Garrett. If this unit is successfully resurrected, it's looking at Washington and Arizona in Weeks 15 and 16. Arizona might be behind only Carolina in terms of a good opponent to have.

Man Crush Update:
This section is definitely swinging heavily in favor of Tampa Bay. I like all of them, and with cause. It's a wonderful fantasy playoff schedule, so stock up while you can. This goes for redraft leagues and keeper/dynasty leagues. It's time to invest before they turn into the Colts.

Danny Woodhead had a predictably light day against the Steelers, but I still think he's a terrific depth guy to have as needed. Unfortunately, Fred Taylor is due back and the bye weeks are over. Might be worth trying to trade if you don't really need him and someone else does. But if he's back with the Pats next year, especially in the unlikely event that he retains dual positional eligibility, he's an absolutely fantastic draft pick as your #4 RB or #5 WR.

As for Chris Ivory and James Starks, the luster has significantly diminished. I'm not ready to count out either, but they both should be on waiver wires for now.

Saturday, November 13, 2010

Week 10 Potpourri

"Potpourri" should never be used in a fantasy football column. Ever. Just like Darrius Heyward-Bey should never be used in a fantasy football lineup. Ever.

But unlike DHB, potpourri seems fitting here given the lack of a consistent theme this week. Let's call it a stew. A beef stew.

The first ingredient is quarterbacks, as in three elite ones on a bye this week. I have no idea how Jason Campbell owners will truly cope without him this week, but there are plenty of sneaky options.

David Garrard is far and away Option #1 if he's available, and he's easily a Top 10 play this week for anyone, threatening for Top 5. His last appearance was a five-touchdown gem at Dallas and he had the bye week to prepare for this week's home game against an even more generous Houston secondary. Three TDs and 250+ yards seems doable.

After him, it's at least a step or two down to the next guys, but they're all viable for a serviceable stat line. I like Josh Freeman the best, despite an unfavorable matchup, and I still say it's only going to get better going forward. Vince Young is worthwhile (albeit risky) if active as Randy Moss adds a whole new dimension to the Titans' vertical attack. Kerry Collins.... not so much.

A follower of the column recently suggested I comment on how late inactives among defensive players affect opposing offensive player matchups. It's a good concept, and one that is too often overlooked and underreported. Unfortunately, I haven't delved enough into that area of gameday research to adequately address it. But it is great food for thought if you want to spend the time to monitor it.

Questionable/doubtful/out tags on Friday's injury reports can clearly improve the outlook for individual offensive players, just as similar reports for offensive linemen have the opposite effect. If you take a little extra time to note who's in and out on Sunday, you may end up with an unheralded gem or at least scrape up an excellent tiebreaker between two otherwise even players.

Branching off of that though, I can comment generally on how some defensive players significantly affect the fantasy potential of their offensive opponents. Darrelle Revis is the best example of an individual player altering an offensive player's matchup, and he was back to his old Revis Island self last week, limiting elite talent Calvin Johnson to just one catch on only four targets. Revis' first dedicated coverage of the season was a resounding success, and every No. 1 WR playing against him for the rest of season must be started with dramatically lowered expectations.

There is a flip side to this, though. For whatever reason, the Jets have not defended against the pass well in general. With Revis dedicated to the No. 1 guy, that means the No. 2 guy is going to get a lot more looks than usual, and should be a fantasy success. Last week, it was Nate Burleson. And after watching what TO did against the Steelers on Monday night when they rolled blanket coverage onto Ochocinco, you can bet he's in for another big game in Week 12 vs. the Jets.

Burleson was the top WR waiver wire add this week, but I'm not totally sure why. Buffalo does give up points in general, but is more suceptible to the running game. And as the best fantasy matchup for opposing tight ends, you can bet that will a big part of the focus for the Lions in this week's gameplan. (Hello Brandon Pettigrew! And even perhaps Tony Scheffler....) Even when the Lions air it out, Megatron will dominate the looks and endzone targets. Burleson is a low ceiling possession receiver who has just happened to score a TD in three of the last four games. He's got a less-than-100-percent backup QB throwing to him Sunday. I just don't see him as a clear cut choice here over four or five other guys floating around the wires, although I understand he's a viable bye week play. I like Mike Thomas and Jacoby Jones (who has the better matchup against the others' inept pass defense?) but my plug-in pick this week at WR, even BEFORE Steve Smith went down, was Mario Manningham. It's a risky move because players usually ramp it up in Game One of a new regime, so Dallas may not roll over again as they have in recent weeks. I still think it was an attractive play WITH Smith ahead of him, and it's absolutely irresistible with him starting. It will be much more fascinating though to see how the new sherriff affects the numerous former fantasy darlings on OFFENSE given he now has full control.

Tashard Choice is one total wildcard here, but it would be tough to guess on him this week at the Giants. I actually like him better as a higher waiver selection than Mike Goodson though even though Goodson may be a better play this week. 20 touches? Perhaps. But if neither DeAngelo Williams nor Jonathan Stewart can do anything with those, why should you expect the lesser-talented Goodson to do so, even in a supposed cake matchup? The line can't open up holes, the QB position is a mess, and they're going up against a solid if unspectacular defense that is motivated by a run to the playoffs. No no no. I'll be shocked if anyone on Carolina scores a TD, and even 60-70 all-purpose yards for Goodson seems an excessive estimate. The Bucs' DST is the better sneaky play here. Unfortunately, there really isn't much to be had on most RB waiver wires, so Goodson isn't actually far from the top of that. But why bother? He's a one-week desperation play at best, and plenty of depth guys have a better overall likelihood of production this week. In many cases, I'd go with that guy sitting at the end of your bench over Goodson, and I'd definitely go with most RB2/3s over him.

Man Crush Update:
Danny Woodhead: At Pittsburgh this week, the ultimate test. He already did it against Baltimore, but those weren't your father's Reed-in Ravens, remember? Offensive patterns have shown though that the Patriots will lean on him when the normal running game is shut down, as it should be this week. I'll say another 75 all-purpose yards. TD would be a bonus, but not shocking. Also seems he is the only Patriot with value intact post-Moss - no one would have guessed that. Fred Taylor is expected back soon, and that could put a crimp on his touches, but it would be hard to not rely on the guy at least a little (no pun intended), in both fantasy and reality.

James Starks: Unexpectedly activated from the PUP list instead of sent to IR. That makes things really interesting because it means the Packers think he has more value to them for the rest of this season than does another guy. Don't count him out yet - he could be one of the greatest dark horses of all time, but his top value is still in dynasty leagues.

Chris Ivory: Tough to truly stick with this guy, all things considered. But I'd still wait until PT plays a full game before considering bailing out on him as your #4/5 guy. He could still end up being the Mike Bell of 2010.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Buy order still in effect for Freeman, Blount and especially Mike Williams, a junior Megatron. Trade perceived equal or even slightly better assets if necessary. I'd trade Orton for Freeman, Welker or Ward for Mike Williams, and Ricky Williams for Blount. Keep an eye on Arrelious Benn as well and possibly a late season re-emergence by Kellen Winslow.

Saturday, November 6, 2010

Dissecting DSTs

Halfway into the 2010 season, we have a pretty good idea of which teams are the closest to locks as DST plays and which teams represent the best and worst matchup plays for opposing DSTs. The trick is getting the right one in at the right time, as matchups matter more there than any other roster position. Even a stud DST like Pittsburgh may not be a smart play against an opponent that generally doesn't make many errors. Whereas a poor DST like Buffalo may actually be a good play this week, going up against Jay Cutler. He's usually good for about 10 points for any opposing DST.

If you have a stud DST, you have the luxury of using them relatively safely in most matchups and thus preserving the additional roster spot for vital depth at other positions. But if you don't, it's perfectly acceptable to stream DSTs (substituting one for another every week, including the possibility of grabbing one a full week in advance of a great matchup) or carry two that you can alternate through good matchups for a lengthy portion of the season. The latter is an especially smart play at the conclusion of the bye weeks, when you know roughly what to expect from matchups through the fantasy playoffs, and you don't need that extra roster spot to cover bye week holes. You can start mapping that out now as there may be several decent combinations still available. Peace of mind for you, and extra time to research your other needs.

A league's individual scoring setting is obviously the most critical factor in determining which DST to play when. In general though, aggressive playmaking defenses (that generate turnovers and sacks) are just as if not more valuable than conservative defenses that merely limit their opponents' scoring and yardage without making highlight defensive plays. But there is a flip side to that coin. Specifically, a team that is reliant on the big play (defensive TD) for its average value (Arizona this year) represents a major risk for any owner that elects to use them. Short of that defensive TD, teams like this are destined for failure. It's very similar to the role of the goalline RB, who will likely end up with a zero if he does not get a touchdown. Those TDs are great equalizers, but unreliable, so those players/DSTs probably should only be used when there are no other viable options available.

The same is true for playing a DST whose opponent has allowed some big plays. San Diego and New Orleans are terrific examples of statistically attractive matchups this year that you would never expect to be so. These are two of the least defensible teams, so they'll rack up yardage and points, but for some reason both have been extremely generous in allowing big plays on defense and special teams. Very risky play to go against either of these, as a negative number is well within reason. But if you're desperate for a big game, why not?

A common trap to fall into for owners prospecting for a plug-in DST is choosing one simply based on average point production. Settings, followed by opponent, have been articulated as the most critical factors, but average value is right up there. Two things dramatically affect that average: the opponents they have faced (opportunity) and the occasional huge game (25+ fantasy points). Past opponents is a given - you don't want to carelessly disregard a team that has been below average against great offenses, nor undeservedly elevate a team's potential value if they have played a string of weak opponents. As for huge games, there is at least one team per year that has one monster defensive game that skews their average value for the rest of the season. Beware of that anomaly vaulting a team into ranks it shouldn't be placed. The best example this year may be New England, who had a huge game against Miami in Week 4. The Patriots' DST has a respectable average in most leagues because of that, but has had abyssmal production in four of its seven games. Plugging them in is dangerous.

One of my biggest pet peeves in fantasy football is the fact that DSTs start at a specific value (based on not having allowed any yards or points at the start of the game) and then deteriorate from there unless enough defensive plays are made to offset the natural progression of the game. The starting total is usually a pretty good number, but the final number is usually below that. This of course affects your "live" bottom line total and those crazy projections. There has to be a better way, but it probably involves a much more complicated algorithm that isn't user-friendly or simply logical. Still would be my preference.

Perhaps my only bigger pet peeve is the requirement of using a kicker in most leagues. I accept the element of luck in fantasy football, but at the kicker position, it is just too great a factor. No amount of research can predict a ridiculously poor start by preseason favorite Garrett Hartley, a -2 by Nick Folk last week or three straight monsters by Dan Carpenter.

The problem is that matchups are hardly indicative of opportunity, because opportunity for kickers tends to be much more random. Granted, if you expect an offense to score five TDs in a game, you can count on five extra points. But that may mean no field goals, which are worth much more.

I've yet to see a formula for effectively streaming kickers, but I'm sure there are "sure-fire" theories out there, like how to win at roulette. The basic argument involves getting a kicker whose team can move the ball, but struggles in the red zone for one reason or another. And vice-versa, an opponent that allows yardage, but tightens up near the goalline. Carpenter is the flavor-of-the-month in that regard but could easily be off the radar two weeks from now. Accuracy and range are obviously good things, but opportunity is way more important, and that is too often totally unpredictable from game to game.

The credo of never drafting a kicker until the last round of your draft has never been more prevalent than this year. There are none that are ever worth a waiver selection and it would be extremely difficult to justify keeping one on your roster during his bye week. I'm certain that I'm not the only one crying out for an elimination of kickers in fantasy leagues, but I certainly would expect more of a common outcry for this, and I just don't hear much about it.

Man Crush Update:
Chris Ivory: Stinker against Pittsburgh, and now splitting touches with two other guys: Ladell Betts AND Julius Jones. Talk about writing on the wall, but I still like the guy. Sean Payton seems to love him, and is not too enamored of the seemingly malingering Pierre Thomas (although I give PT the benefit of the doubt here given he's certainly motivated to play for a contract.) Now there's a rumor that PT may be put on IR. At this point, Ivory is still just a high potential upside play that hasn't yet panned out. A 50/50 shot going forward, but probably worth a roster spot if you've got one handy.

Danny Woodhead: He sure doesn't seem like a good play, but he is. He's a better version of Kevin Faulk, the ultimate bye week replacement, and as mentioned before, has the extremely rare dual positional eligibility. He's not going away folks, even after Fred Taylor comes back. He's just about the best bet in a reliable five points every week, although he has very little high side. No better band-aid for an ailing lineup.

James Starks: Two possibilities here. He's inserted into the lineup in Week 11 and puts on a good late season run, or he disappears completely until next season. Too tough to call at this point.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Buy now if you can, specifically Blount, Freeman and Mike Williams. The Buccaneers are 5-2, plenty motivated for a run to the playoffs, and now with the pieces to do it. Freeman's probably the least of the three, but only because you usually only play one QB and he's just on the cusp of the Top 10 right now, but I like him a lot better than Cutler, for example. Hail Mary Blount appears to be panning out with authority, and has only better things ahead. And Williams is a stud-in-the-making. Watch the tape. Every week. Given the team's record and motivation, I'd even consider placing heavier expectations on the Bucs DST, but don't go too crazy. Just a possibility going forward.

P.S. Anthony Gonzalez sure lasted, didn't he? So much for that idea.

Saturday, October 30, 2010

Fitz Fits

Last week, I pointed out that Ryan Fitzpatrick had had three strong weeks in a row. I also said he shouldn't be added or played in spite of that.

Well, I was wrong.

Coming off an absolutely MONSTER week (4TDs and nearly 400 yards passing at Baltimore), it's hard not to rocket him to the top of the waiver list for not just owners of injured and bye QBs, but for EVERYONE. He's got a very good fantasy playoff schedule including home games against Cleveland and New England. Even if you aren't going to use him, you can certainly trade him. Especially to a panicking Romo or Favre owner. He's got the numbers to sell high.

Jon Kitna initially didn't look very sharp in relief of Romo on Monday Night, but he got better. And who would have thought it would take Kitna to turn Dez Bryant into a superstar? Miles Austin may see a drop, but Bryant, as he has been all season, is ready to explode regardless of who's under center. Kitna may be more likely to go to an underneath outlet, meaning Jason Witten and Felix Jones could increase their targets. Even Roy Williams, recently morphed into a short-route endzone guy, still has plenty of potential. Kitna had plenty of fantasy relevance a few seasons ago in Detroit. He's an oldie, but a goodie. He has Jacksonville in Week 8, so he's fine as a bye week replacement and a temporary plug for Romo owners.

Tavaris Jackson is a different story. If Favre sits at any point, Jackson becomes a possible play, but is a major risk. He's got plenty of good targets, but has never shown an ability to do good things with them. From a fantasy perspective, Sage Rosenfels would have been a much more desireable alternative but Jackson was obviously the better fit for the program. I wouldn't expect much.

The guy to grab if he's out there is Matt Stafford. He's back, and back to what many still expect to be his breakout season. He's got five solid receiving options on almost every play, and he's got a dynamic running back to discourage the linebackers from focusing on coverage. His upside is nearly limitless - he could easily be a top 10 guy the rest of the way. I have almost as many complimentary words about Josh Freeman.

The question on a lot of people's minds this week is what the heck is going to happen in Indianapolis, where fantasy afterthoughts become studs. In rapid succession, the Colts lost Dallas Clark, Austin Collie and Joseph Addai. No expert is willing to clearly pick Blair White or Anthony Gonzalez or Jacob Tamme over the other as the new Clark/Collie slot machine, but whoever it is will be a big asset in the bye weeks and usable beyond. I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see all three find the end zone at least once each over the next three weeks, but it's impossible to guess which one when. If I had to bet my life savings, I'd go with Gonzo over the others (as articulated last week) but I wouldn't exactly be comfortable waiting to see where the ball lands. As for the running game, it looks like a combination of Donald Brown and Mike Hart can be expected, crippling any real value of either in what is designed as a passing offense. Life savings - I go with Hart. Brown is a Gonzo-esque injury risk while Hart has proven in limited trials that he can carry the load and will likely be the first choice at the goalline. If Brown sits out, Hart becomes a top 20 play.

The other unexpected possible bonanza play this week is Jonathan Stewart. Some are even talking Top 10, but I'm not buying. With DeAngelo Williams likely out, JStew is in line to start and dominate carries. People know his elite talent, and what he did with it in short-term full-time duties last year, but he's done zilch in 2010, and the Panthers' entire running game has been stagnant. It doesn't add up to worth the risk if you have a more reliable (albeit boring) option. Obviously, he's worth playing over the usual bye week guys, but don't go benching your normal starters for him unless there's a clear separation.

I had my bonehead move of the year (there's always at least one) when I dropped Kenny Britt just before last week. I looked it as:

1) inconsistency/drops
2) no Vince Young at QB
3) possible discipline due to the bar fight
4) facing top defense San Diego in Week 8, followed by a bye.

Figured he'd still be out there after, when I'd be more likely to play a risk/reward WR. But why roster him until then? Because he's a beast, that's why! You just never know when one of these guys is going to show up, which makes it especially difficult to wait around for them. When they do.... oh baby! Tough to decide if it's more frustrating to have kept a guy forever that never pans out, or to have briefly speculated on and then dropped a guy that pans out immediately thereafter.

As a sidenote here, I'll place part of the blame on Rotoworld, which is bipolar on some guys like Britt (he's great, he sucks, he's great, he sucks) and ridiculously loyal to their original assessment on others. I actually blame myself for listening to them 90 percent of the time, but I must also say they are the best service I've seen so far. I'm planning a later column to offer my opinion on several fantasy web sites, but in brief, Rotoworld is my favorite. My apologies to the CBS guys, but that one's a disaster in terms of insight/reliability. And ESPN's projections seem to be more designed to generate confusion and debate more than to deliver fair expectations, sometimes not even matching up with their own textual "What they're saying..." And yet, I'm still a sucker for being disappointed when my projected win fails to materialize. Admittedly, it's a heck of a lot easier than writing my own projections!

Man Crush Update:
Chris Ivory: The more pessimistic the outlook on Pierre Thomas, the better it is for Chris Ivory. PT is now back in a walking boot and on crutches, and is tentatively expected to return in Week 11. I'll believe it when I see it. Ivory hasn't been great outside of one week, but as he gets more comfortable, he'll get better. The bigger problem is actually the New Orleans offense as a whole, which hasn't been the machine it has been in the past. There are definitely fewer scoring opportunities.

Danny Woodhead: Quiet week at San Diego, but the Chargers have the stingiest yardage defense in the league. I still love him as the ultimate fantasy dream: a dual threat with dual positional eligibility. Unfortunately, his remaining matches in the bye weeks including two more tough opponents in Minnesota and Pittsburgh. After that, his matchups improve, but his possible fantasy usage will be somewhat diminished.

James Starks: Looks like I'll have to eat my words on this one, but there's still a chance, albeit significantly slimmer. He may not be ready to contribute this year after all.

Saturday, October 23, 2010

Gonzo for Gonzo

The middle of the bye weeks are tough enough to deal with without injuries. Ironically though, the injuries actually make more viable plays available on the waiver wire.

A gold mine of high upside wide receivers flooded the market this week, making it relatively easy to roll the dice on one if you're short. The question is, which one?

In San Diego, for example. If Floyd sits out as expected, Patrick Crayton seems like the logical acquisition, but Craig "Buster" Davis could easily be the guy. With a poor pass defense in town, you could plug in Lance Moore, Robert Meachem or Devery Henderson and hope for five or more targets or the jackpot long TD. Jason Avant is startable while Desean Jackson recovers, but how startable?

If you're looking for something that may last a little longer, New England showed Deion Branch still has life left. It did take until the fourth quarter, but against a terrific pass defense. Anyone left behind in Seattle has potential, and at least for the moment it looks as though Mike Williams is back on top, though it would be difficult to truly count on him. And the surprise of the week, Danario Alexander, makes his case as the new Mark Clayton (though not quite Miles Austin.) Frankly, the way Sam Bradford seems to be handling his first year, anyone with any potential there immediately gets a little extra bump up. (Bradford himself is an incredible hold in Dynasty leagues.) But I'm a little hesitant on Alexander anyway. Four catches on five looks doesn't exactly translate to a new favorite target. (Granted, the flow of the game took Alexander out of the equation in the second half so he could have been good for much more.) He's a huge injury risk with major past knee problems. But his size, speed and monster final collegiate season can't be ignored. Neither can Friday's news that Mardy Gilyard may not play Sunday, increasing Alexander's opportunities. He simultaneously represents the second biggest upside and second biggest downside of this week's waiver wire WRs going forward.

The boom or bust category is led by Anthony Gonzalez, sure to be very high on waiver claims next week. Only the fact that the Colts are on a bye is preventing everyone in the world from adding him now, and in many leagues he has already been grabbed. He has the pedigree and the hype as a first round pick in 2007, so management will do everything to give him as many chances as possible. In his fourth year with the program, he obviously knows the system and has played extensively in it. Injuries and inconsistent play have plagued him as multiple guys have lined up and passed him on the depth chart. But just as he's returning to health this year, the Colts lose three prime targets in Austin Collie, Dallas Clark and Joseph Addai. Those three have combined for 99 or the Colts' 171 receptions through six games. Someone has to catch those, and Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon (a superior trade target right now) can't do it all. The stars could not have aligned better for Gonzalez, the most natural slot receiver left to see the underneath targets that were going toward Clark and Collie. We'll see what he does with it (let's hope he stays healthy), but no waiver wire wideout is entering anywhere close to as favorable a situation.

Running back is significantly thinner, and will only get worse with six teams on byes in Weeks 8 and 9. Plan ahead, as you should with your WRs as well. (Plug-and-play is OK for QB, TE, DST, and especially K.) If Danny Woodhead is still out there for any reason, grab him and play him as needed. Double-digit fantasy points may be a fluke, but not when it's three weeks in a row. (He had 115 yards from scrimmage last week. Against Baltimore!) As mentioned in the last column, he has RB AND WR eligibility in most leagues. Chris Ivory had his coming out party in Week 6, and now is on everyone's want list. Probably too late to get him once this column is published, but it looks as though he will have life even after PT and Bush return, as suggested. The jury will likely be out until later this season on Green Bay's James Starks, and it could be tough to gamble on him before then, but he certainly has upside. (Seems like I'm referring back to these guys a lot, so I'll include a separate section in my next column: Man Crush Update.) Emergency options include LeGarrette Blount, Javon Ringer, and surprisingly, Derrick Ward, who's been ticketed for a bigger share in Houston. Look for one series every few, and even perhaps a goalline carry or two in each game. That ain't bad given the alternatives. And if for any reason Donald Brown was dropped in your league, pick him up immediately, bye or no. Addai is out, so Brown is now the present as well as the future (and apparently healthy). Mike Hart is the lesser option, but he's a proven gamer and may still may get the goalline, a potential bonanza in Indy. I'd play him over Barber against the same opponent.

And despite the bizarre rash of tight end injuries, it's still a deep spot. Jacob Tamme inherits Dallas Clark's gig, but I don't like his chances nearly as much as Gonzalez'. He's just one of a gaggle of guys that may or may not do it for you in a given week. None are Dallas Clark or Jermichael Finley, of course, but five short receptions and a glance or two in the end zone should be good enough to get you by indefinitely. Even Antonio Gates owners have a potential late-game-time-decision replacement in John Carlson. He's only 20 percent owned in ESPN leagues, averages near five points per game, and is home against Arizona, as favorable a match as you can get. Just beware of your opponent grabbing him before you do! (My advice: Grab Carlson now, and drop him for a better stash from the late games or byes if Gates is active. Better safe than sorry.)

And one of my favorite play-and-hold guys for this week: Josh Freeman. He's had three strong weeks, one average (last week against the Saints' stingy pass defense) and one poor (I grant him a Mulligan against Pittsburgh.) This week, he's home against St. Louis. Schaub and Manning owners could do plenty worse. And if you think you can handle it, hold him for the fantasy playoffs. Are you ready for this?: Week 14 at Washington, Weeks 15-16 at home against Detroit and Seattle. I give him at least top 8 status each of those weeks, and a top 8 draft spot next year. Tampa Bay has virtually no running game (Freeman may be their best runner), Mike Williams is for real, and Arrelious Benn is in the wings. This season is Freeman's coming-out party. He'll still have his share of stinkers because he's still young, but his upside is higher than any other unestablished QB.

Don't go crazy, but I just wanted to point this out: Ryan Fitzpatrick (yes, Ryan Fitzpatrick) has a 7-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio in three games since taking over as starter in Buffalo. Three straight strong fantasy starts. His passing yardage ain't anything special, but he had seven rushes for 74 yards (against the Jets, no less) in Week 5. Again, don't go crazy. Don't add him, don't play him. (Particularly this week AT Baltimore.) But don't say I didn't mention it.

Saturday, October 16, 2010

Don't Sleep on Danny

Scouting the waiver wire earlier this week, I noticed that Danny Woodhead, one of the Hard Knocks darlings, had been granted unique dual positional eligibility (WR and RB) on multiple fantasy sports servers. Based on his Kevin Faulkesque usage and results so far with the Patriots, that’s fantasy gold for any owner looking for a plug or two during the bye weeks. And given the spread offense likely to emerge in the Patriots’ gameplans following the Moss trade, and the dominoes falling in the Patriots’ backfield, there’s little reason not to pick him up as a high-upside wildcard if you’ve got the space. Granted, if you’ve already got your byes mapped out, it may not be worth the bother. But if you think you might need a RB in Weeks 6 and 9, and a WR in Weeks 7 and 10, Danny Woodhead is your one-stop shop. Too bad he doesn’t play tight end as well, but I wouldn’t put it past Belichick to line him up there on occasion.

The James Starks Watch is reaching its crescendo, somewhat more quietly than I expected. The Packers just lost a huge weapon in Jermichael Finley, so their running game is going to have to be better than it’s been to make up some of the difference. They missed out on Marshawn Lynch and there’s precious little left out there with the trade deadline days away. (I’d be surprised if they never received a call about the availability of Jerome Harrison, and if they did, I’d be disappointed if they did not put in an least a cursory bid.) Brandon Jackson is not the answer, and neither is John Kuhn. We’re not talking Correll Buckhalter and Laurence Maroney here, but the two are, at best, only serviceable - barely keeping the linebackers honest. And Dimitri Nance, originally one of only a small handful of hopeful heirs to Grant, has been phased out of the running game entirely. This is a job for the taking, and I say Starks takes it. The management and coaching staff like him, and he’s been fully healthy for a few weeks now, giving him plenty of time to get used to running the offense. Granted, he’s a longshot, and his first games back are RB killers. But I still like him enough to grab him in a league where my best waiver week options are Mike Tolbert, Chris Ivory, and yes, Marion Barber.

Marion Barber is officially unplayable, but don’t cut bait yet. Not with Glass Felix Jones starting to get more carries. It’s only a matter of time before Barber and Tashard Choice are relevant again. And who knows? Maybe with Jones doing the running between the 20s, the Cowboys will be more likely to get Barber those critical touches inside the 5. But it’s impossible to start him right now. Just remember the Felix injury factor and the fact that the schedule gets steadily easier from here into the fantasy playoffs before you decide to walk away.

Chris Ivory, on the other hand, is actually almost startable despite being quite the fantasy enigma. He was supposed to be the new Mike Bell, for short yardage and protect-the-lead use only. But I guess when Ladell Betts is your backfield partner, you can’t help but get half the touches. He’s not getting enough key action to be a real option outside the bye weeks yet, and his touches will only go down when PT and/or Bush return, but it’ll be hard to ignore him if he IS the goalline back after that.

Another season, another reason. (To NOT draft PT, that is.)

Anyone who lost Jermichael Finley this week is on the hunt for a serviceable TE, and an earlier column indicated an abundance. Unless you’re in a two-TE or 16-team league, someone is out there. It may be a choice between Brandon Pettigrew or Tony Scheffler, but that’s not a bad choice at all, although both still face their bye next week. If you’re lucky, Heath Miller or Tony Moeaki is still out there, and you might even catch a Jermaine Gresham owner trying to sneak him out for the Bengals’ bye week. Pounce.

Friday, October 8, 2010

The Resurrection of Ryan Torain

He was the wunderkind of 2008. The can't-miss stash that folks started rostering in Week 3, even though he wasn't due until Week 9. He was the savior they were counting on to take their 3-5 teams to the fantasy playoffs. And he lasted all of one half.

A game and a half actually, but his debut in Week 9 was only a three-carry teaser. In week 10, coach Shanahan anointed him the feature back, and he responded with 12 carries for 68 yards (a CJ-esque 5.7 YPC average) and a short touchdown in just over one half of play. And then, he was crucified, felled by the infamous ACL tear.

Well folks, he's back. The bell hath tolled for Clinton Portis - he's out at least six weeks, a 30-year-old with the groin of a 50-year-old (no Brett Favre jokes please.) And that stubborn Shanahan, in order to prove his prophecy right, is giving the ball back to Torain.

Call me a doubting Thomas, but I just don't believe the 2010 Torain is as good a model as the 2008. And behind an unproven O-line, he's not in nearly as good a situation. And don't forget that Shanahan, the madman who turns Toms, Dicks and Harries into Ladainians, could easily turn away from the Torain page as quickly as he has turned to it. I still don't say this is a recipe for fantasy success, but while he's in there, he's worth a play during the bye weeks. Just don't be surprised if he gets four carries in Week 6.

Shanahan is the poster child for the scheme, not the back, generating the yardage. Joe Gibbs probably gave him the idea by using unknown before or since Timmy Smith to run for 200+ yards in Superbowl XXII. Unfortunately, this means RBs are becoming interchangeable on some teams, making it much more difficult to get THE guy. Dallas is a perfect example, although Tashard Choice isn't getting as many carries as I expected. Interestingly enough, Dallas has the fewest rushing attempts (69) so far this year, although the bye has something to do with that. They're in the middle of the pack in terms of passing attempts - they just haven't run as many offensive plays as most other teams. And they're only averaging 3.5 yards per rush. It's a fantasy mess if you've got Barber or Felix Jones (or are still holding onto Choice, which isn't that bad an idea, especially in a dynasty league) but have no fear, the Cowboys have one of the most favorable running back schedules remaining. If you have the space, and can get Jones or Barber on the cheap, it's probably worth it. Rumor mill out of Dallas has Jones being more featured going forward, so target him first, but he's always an injury risk. An injury to either would make Choice (very likely available in your pool) immediately worth using.

There are countless example of the NFL's move to multiple and special-duty running backs. What this means is there are less "good" running backs available to needy teams, like the Green Bay Packers. The Packers were in on the Marshawn Lynch talks, but didn't want to pay the price. The trend suggests they're going to have to make do internally (either with James Starks when he comes back, or a combo-back-system like they've done so far.) I still stand by Starks as a great stash, but he's a tough play considering the schedule when he comes back: Minnesota twice, the Jets, Dallas, and a bye. If you can be patient for Week 14 (Detroit), go for it. But it might be a long wait.

The Lynch trade was largely upstaged by the Moss trade less than 24 hours later, but I think the Lynch trade is more fascinating for fantasy owners. I don't believe the Moss trade dramatically changes fantasy values. Moss and Favre will go up, but will simply be what owners expected them to be when they drafted them. Harvin and AP may see a bump, but not a big one, and Brady and Welker's values will only go slightly either way. I originally felt Brandon Tate would benefit the most as the "replacement" for Randy Moss, but I now think it's more likely the Patriots will go to a mutliple-target spread offense a la New Orleans, making all the receivers useful, but very unpredictable, and thus unreliable for fantasy purposes. Another trend in the NFL, if you've got the personnel. The Patriots had it right when they were winning Superbowls - adding Randy Moss changed the formula for success that they had written out of necessity.

The Lynch trade, on the other hand, immediately inflates the values of Lynch, Spiller and especially Fred Jackson, who is a pass-catching featureback in an otherwise lifeless offense. Spiller will get his looks and touches, no doubt, but he still won't be a reliable fantasy play except maybe at the end of the season when the Bills are out of it and just want to see what he can do going forward as a possible featureback. That's the biggest risk in moving forward with Fred Jackson as a good fantasy play - that he'll be lifted during the fantasy playoffs. His schedule isn't terrific either, but when he was featured at least half the time on the same lifeless team last year (a 10-game span in which he totalled nearly 1000 yards from scrimmage), he was an every-week play. And that's NOT including his monster final game in which he carried 33 times for 212 yards. He is the Bills' best option, and they're not afraid to overuse him as they give Spiller development time for the future.

Lynch is much more of a wildcard in terms of value. He's definitely worth more now than he was in Buffalo, but it remains to be seen how he is used and what he does with his usage in Seattle. His first and second years in Buffalo were solid, though not truly spectacular, and similar production going forward would be just fine for owners. The run-blocking in Seattle is apparently better than in Buffalo, he's got a more accomplished QB to throw him the ball out of the backfield, and the schedule is much more favorable for running back production. Justin Forsett is there, yes, but I think Lynch wins the battle for snaps against his former Cal teammate, and thus Forsett's value takes a nosedive. But you never know, Lynch could have been brought in as a motivational tactic - the competition will drive one or the other to be spectacular, and it wouldn't be a shocker if it's Forsett, or if they split time equally. Lost in all this is Leon Washington, who has looked great on returns as usual, but hasn't seen much action in the backfield. I believe that is a mistake because I love his exceptional athleticism and ability, but it will be even harder to get him touches there going forward.

Saturday, October 2, 2010

The Year of the Tight End

There was a lot of hype in the offseason about the tight end position being deeper than it has ever been, but I don't think even the experts expected a bonanza such as this.

With upwards of 20 tight ends being at least serviceable options over the first three weeks, there exists an embarrassment of riches, both on active rosters and on the waiver wire. Only the rare two tight end leagues are experiencing the usual shortages headed into the bye weeks.

Everyone knew Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark were going to be elite options, and they were drafted as such. So were Davis and Finley, and Cooley to a lesser extent. And big names like Witten, Celek and Daniels haven't even really shown up yet.

The good news is if you're pressed for a tight end in any given week, it shouldn't be difficult to find one. The bad news is if you spent a high draft pick on the position, it was most likely unnecessary. I did in all my leagues, mostly because I didn't buy the hype about depth. But it's still hard to argue with buying the peace of mind that Gates or Clark brings to your lineup. Not all the tight ends are every week plays. Those guys are, freeing up a bench spot for something other than a reserve TE.

But that brings me directly to the related counterpoint. There is likely no reason to carry a reserve tight end, regardless who your "starter" is. Whether you have a mid-level or elite guy, why bother with a reserve? Even in case of injury or to play on your bye week, there WILL be someone else there when you need him.

It's almost to the point where you can effectively stream mid-level guys. The problem is streaming often relies on matchup ratings. It's easy to predict good matchups for runnings backs and quarterbacks. Wide receiver matchups are less predictable, but you can create relatively decent odds. Predicting tight end matchups, however, is often very unreliable. Game planning, game situation, and variances in usage from team-to-team dramatically alter the matchup defense numbers for tight ends, much more so than the other positions. So I tend to take those with a grain of salt, and rely more on actual production by an individual to determine any tight end's value in a given week. That's where a guy like Gates or Clark holds a significant advantage. Finley too, as essentially matchup-proof.

The abundance of tight ends has also meant you're not going to get nearly as much in trade for a high-end guy. For those of you stocking two big talents, good luck trying to get good return on either. There are just too many legitimate options on the wire for anyone to bother coming after yours. And if you're in the opposite situation, looking for a workable guy, you're obviously not looking hard enough. He's out there.

Running Back Update:
More wildcard options surfacing just in time for the bye weeks. Laurence Maroney gets another shot this week with Moreno still out, but he didn't look very good last week so he's a pretty risky play but with some upside. Ryan Torain got picked up in many leagues, but I'm a little confused as to why. Even if he does get a lot of early-down work, it's still an unimpressive O-line and he's not exactly a burner. He had one run of 36 yards last week, but only generated 10 yards on six other runs. Not a recipe for success. Kenneth Darby will get the rock if SJax is sidelined, as expected, but it would be hard to play him as well. And in New Orleans, my boy Chris Ivory was looking like a very sneaky plug-in for Week 4 with PT possibly out, but now it looks like Ladell Betts (Ladell Betts!) will be the featureback if PT sits due to Ivory's pass protection issues. Still a decent stash in my opinion, but probably right on the bubble, especially during bye weeks. Betts could end up being the sneaky play this week, but he's certainly no better than Maroney, Torain or Darby in terms of risk/reward. The same is true of either Brandon Jackson or John Kuhn. Both could be serviceable plays against Detroit's horrid rush defense, but I wouldn't count on either, nor one over the other, although Jackson has the upside edge. Jackson could get the yardage, and would be a boom pick if he breaks off a long TD run or reception. Kuhn would probably get the call inside the five, but don't forget about the team's rushing TDs leader: Aaron Rodgers. His ability to scramble in almost makes Kuhn obsolete, or at least cuts his goalline value in half.

Monday, September 27, 2010

The Rotation Continues

Who ya gonna play at RB next week?

That's what this year is quickly turning into. The RBBC reality gets even more interesting after this past week, as Jahvid Best, Ray Rice and Steven Jackson all suffered injuries that forced them from the field. Willis McGahee is an obvious pickup if he's available, if even only for a week. The situations in St. Louis and Detroit are far more blurry.

Tonight's Green Bay game is demonstrating why James Starks is a terrific IR stash and even a decent roster burn if you have the space. The Packers' running game is hardly impressive WITH Ryan Grant, but it's non-existent without him. I applaud the respective willingness and effort put in by both Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn, but neither is suited for a featureback role. The latest reports have Starks running at full speed, so he should be 100 percent by Week 7, and I'm willing to hazard a guess he's given an immediate crack at the job.

My hot tip item from last week, Chris Ivory looked pretty amateur yesterday against Atlanta. BUT they did give him the ball in several short yardage situations, AND went back to him even after he fumbled. Now they're talking about getting him the ball 10 times a game, and you can bet some of those will be at the goalline. He definitely has a shot to be this year's Mike Bell, with more explosive upside. And as the No. 2 until Reggie Bush is out, he gets even more of a bump up. One near-miss Pierre Thomas knee-injury yesterday almost defaulted Ivory into THE featureback of the New Orleans Saints.

I was right on picking up a New England RB for yesterday's Buffalo cakewalk, but I picked the wrong guy. BenJarvus Green-Ellis turned into much better than an emergency play after Taylor aggravated a toe injury. Back to my earlier point, however, and that is neither guy is much use beyond last week due to a difficult schedule and impossible-to-predict usage.

I was also right on not rushing to pick up Keiland Williams, but not for all the right reasons. Shanahan's RB woodwork is working again, as Ryan Torain is now the No. 2 in Washington, and may get a shot at a split or better with Portis. Williams is totally off the radar.

I didn't mention LeGarrette Blount Thursday because I didn't believe he would become relevant so quickly. I was still thinking about Kareem Huggins, who is still part of the equation. Blount is a prototypical power back - a great early-down, short-yardage or ice-the-game crusher. Originally touted as a possible early-round draft pick, he was pretty much forgotten after getting suspended for his senior season at Oregon for taking a cheap shot at an opposing player during an on-field altercation. Tennessee took a look at him in training camp, but he has a much better shot to be worthwhile in Tampa Bay. Huggins is more of a dancer, so probably better as a change-of-pace guy. One, if not both, will be more valuable than Cadillac by midseason. Blount looked solid in limited action on Sunday, averaging 4.5 yards per rush against a tough Pittsburgh defense. You add him before Huggins if you want to roll the dice there. The downside is Tampa Bay has its bye next week, so you have to wait longer to see if your claim pays any return.

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Welcome to my World

ad·dic·tion: a physiological or psychological dependency on a specific substance or behavior

It's not crack, people. It's fantasy football.

And there are those times, frustrating as they may be, when there is NO NEW INFORMATION.

That's where I come in. My signature entry every Saturday around noon ET, and occasionally a briefing on Monday night. Filled primarily with my own observations and speculations that haven't yet congested the information superhighway. I don't claim to have inside information, I just claim to bring forth what I have culled and collected like any other addict.

I will be right sometimes, and wrong sometimes. Just like the "experts".

Entry I - Further descent into the RBBC

When early-round breakout favorites Shonn Greene and Jamaal Charles are no more worthwhile than their committee partners, when three-headed monster is becoming the norm rather than the exception, and when decent moving parts are dropping like passes to Ted Ginn, you've got a total watering down of value at the RB position in 2010. The feature back is a true bonanza, and it doesn't get better. Draft early and often, until all supplies are gone.

But what if you don't get one of those guys? Recent history has shown that because the feature back is an endangered species, viable alternatives are more plentiful. Doesn't replace high-end production, but I'll take an 8 over a 0 any day.

Hitting the wire after an injury is the most common tactic - Brandon Jackson after Week 1, Mike Tolbert after Week 2 - but there's another, more rewarding way. Prospecting for hidden gems. Reading the tea leaves of opportunity behind a cloud of unsureity. You hit a hail mary there, you become immortalized in your pool for life.

With that as the backdrop, I present: The Case for Chris Ivory

After an eyebrow-raising preseason, Chris Ivory was a surprise survivor after the final cuts, especially since he sustained an MCL injury in the final preseason game. Buried on the depth chart, he was at best a Project RB. And yet some were terming him one possible answer as goalline back after Lynell Hamilton's season-ending injury, and Mike Bell proved how valuable that can be if you play for the New Orleans Saints. The MCL injury, combined with the ease with which Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush seemed to be balancing the load early, made Ivory a quickly forgotten commodity.

Fast forward. Bush is out for awhile, at least four weeks and probably more like six. And Ivory is now healthy, having earlier this week participated in his first full practices of the regular season. Pierre Thomas isn't going to do it all - this offense is tailor-made for multiple running backs. The alternatives, Ladell Betts and DeShawn Wynn, aren't the answers the Saints are seeking. Enter Ivory.

He doesn't have the pedigree - he was a free agent signed out of Division II Tiffin University. But he does have the promise. And now, he has the opportunity.

And it probably couldn't come at a better time. The Saints have seven weeks until their bye, and if firing on all cylinders, may keep Bush out until after that. In that span, they play a very RB-friendly schedule including games against Carolina, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Arizona and Cleveland. At the very least, they should be comfortably ahead at the end of the most of those, meaning a steady fourth-quarter diet of the Mike Bell ground-and-pound formula to close out the game. Ivory will get the call there, in addition to any regular carries he gets to spell Thomas, including at the goalline, where the Saints have traditionally been hesitant to risk their "feature" back. And guess what? Ivory can catch too. His signature play of the preseason was a 76-yard TD reception right out of the Pierre Thomas / Reggie Bush playbook. He broke and/or evaded no fewer than five tackles after catching the ball behind the line of scrimmage at his own 20-yard-line, wowing the home crowd in the process.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33iGu_ZYbBY

He may not pan out after all, but if he does, you will have one piece in place to help cruise through the bye weeks or weather any injuries. I think that's worth the roster spot.

And although he's one of my personal favorites, he's hardly the only still-under-the-radar option worth considering at RB. Fullback John Kuhn and PUP lister James Starks (both of Green Bay) definitely qualify. Kuhn because he's a straight-ahead bruiser (a great option at the goalline) and garnered just two fewer carries in Week 2 than waiver wire darling Brandon Jackson. He also did much better with his carries, though Jackson got the short TD. Expect that opportunity to switch to Kuhn soon as Jackson is actually prized by the organization for his critical third-down blocking and pass-catching skills. Don't fix it if it's not broken. Kuhn will be a great bye week option so long as he's getting around 10 carries and gets the looks at the goalline for the juggernaut offense of the Packers, just like Ivory in New Orleans. Once Starks comes off the PUP list though, Kuhn may be relegated to strictly fullback duty in his favor. Starks is a high-upside prospect that is envisioned as a possible future featureback. That future may just be sooner than expected, and if you have an IR spot to stash him in, why not? You will have to wait until at least midseason to cash in that lottery ticket though as he is ineligible to play until Week 8.

Among other popular names that seem to be making the pundit's rounds in these parts include Keiland Williams, the default No. 2 to clearly aging back Clinton Portis in Washington. Any Mike Shanahan RB could come out of the woodwork and produce at any time, so he's got inexplicable history demonstrating his upside. But it would probably take a full workload (i.e. Portis injury) to give him enough opportunity to be a viable fantasy play behind Washington's shaky O-line. No way he's worthwhile without 20 touches a game, but I think I said that about Peyton Hillis last year and was wrong. I just would sooner go with others than Williams and tend to disagree with the guys hyping him as the best long odds / short owned option.

With Laurence Maroney off to Denver and Kevin Faulk gone for the season, New England's BenJarvus Green-Ellis makes for a decent emergency play this week against hapless Buffalo if neither Fred Taylor nor Maroney (getting the surprise start against Indy) is still available in your pool. Unfortunately, you never really know how that crazy Belichick is going to use his RBs, and after this week, the opponents get much tougher through at least midseason. Both Green-Ellis and Taylor thus revert to relatively unwise plays beyond this Sunday. Taylor makes for a brilliant sell-high if he's productive with a high number of carries vs. Buffalo, a fairly likely possibility, so you probably want to hold onto him if you can just for that purpose. Anticipating such a trade may be difficult to engineer, and not needing him in my lineup this week, I am leaning heavily towards dropping him for Ivory BEFORE Sunday, BEFORE Ivory is given any chance to break out. (See: Thomas, Demariyus.)

And branching off from the school of Belichick, how about the situation in Brownsville? Jerome Harrison rocketed up draft lists once Hardesty was knocked out, and now he's splitting carries with Hillis, who is the choice at the goalline. He also was held out of some practices this week. Enter forgotten darling James Davis. Not a recommended grab..... yet. But definitely worth watching as Harrison has repeatedly shown he lacks the trust of the coaching staff and the Cleveland O-line is not a bad one to work through.

Ivory first, Davis last. Lots of moving parts to consider for your machine going forward.