Saturday, November 13, 2010

Week 10 Potpourri

"Potpourri" should never be used in a fantasy football column. Ever. Just like Darrius Heyward-Bey should never be used in a fantasy football lineup. Ever.

But unlike DHB, potpourri seems fitting here given the lack of a consistent theme this week. Let's call it a stew. A beef stew.

The first ingredient is quarterbacks, as in three elite ones on a bye this week. I have no idea how Jason Campbell owners will truly cope without him this week, but there are plenty of sneaky options.

David Garrard is far and away Option #1 if he's available, and he's easily a Top 10 play this week for anyone, threatening for Top 5. His last appearance was a five-touchdown gem at Dallas and he had the bye week to prepare for this week's home game against an even more generous Houston secondary. Three TDs and 250+ yards seems doable.

After him, it's at least a step or two down to the next guys, but they're all viable for a serviceable stat line. I like Josh Freeman the best, despite an unfavorable matchup, and I still say it's only going to get better going forward. Vince Young is worthwhile (albeit risky) if active as Randy Moss adds a whole new dimension to the Titans' vertical attack. Kerry Collins.... not so much.

A follower of the column recently suggested I comment on how late inactives among defensive players affect opposing offensive player matchups. It's a good concept, and one that is too often overlooked and underreported. Unfortunately, I haven't delved enough into that area of gameday research to adequately address it. But it is great food for thought if you want to spend the time to monitor it.

Questionable/doubtful/out tags on Friday's injury reports can clearly improve the outlook for individual offensive players, just as similar reports for offensive linemen have the opposite effect. If you take a little extra time to note who's in and out on Sunday, you may end up with an unheralded gem or at least scrape up an excellent tiebreaker between two otherwise even players.

Branching off of that though, I can comment generally on how some defensive players significantly affect the fantasy potential of their offensive opponents. Darrelle Revis is the best example of an individual player altering an offensive player's matchup, and he was back to his old Revis Island self last week, limiting elite talent Calvin Johnson to just one catch on only four targets. Revis' first dedicated coverage of the season was a resounding success, and every No. 1 WR playing against him for the rest of season must be started with dramatically lowered expectations.

There is a flip side to this, though. For whatever reason, the Jets have not defended against the pass well in general. With Revis dedicated to the No. 1 guy, that means the No. 2 guy is going to get a lot more looks than usual, and should be a fantasy success. Last week, it was Nate Burleson. And after watching what TO did against the Steelers on Monday night when they rolled blanket coverage onto Ochocinco, you can bet he's in for another big game in Week 12 vs. the Jets.

Burleson was the top WR waiver wire add this week, but I'm not totally sure why. Buffalo does give up points in general, but is more suceptible to the running game. And as the best fantasy matchup for opposing tight ends, you can bet that will a big part of the focus for the Lions in this week's gameplan. (Hello Brandon Pettigrew! And even perhaps Tony Scheffler....) Even when the Lions air it out, Megatron will dominate the looks and endzone targets. Burleson is a low ceiling possession receiver who has just happened to score a TD in three of the last four games. He's got a less-than-100-percent backup QB throwing to him Sunday. I just don't see him as a clear cut choice here over four or five other guys floating around the wires, although I understand he's a viable bye week play. I like Mike Thomas and Jacoby Jones (who has the better matchup against the others' inept pass defense?) but my plug-in pick this week at WR, even BEFORE Steve Smith went down, was Mario Manningham. It's a risky move because players usually ramp it up in Game One of a new regime, so Dallas may not roll over again as they have in recent weeks. I still think it was an attractive play WITH Smith ahead of him, and it's absolutely irresistible with him starting. It will be much more fascinating though to see how the new sherriff affects the numerous former fantasy darlings on OFFENSE given he now has full control.

Tashard Choice is one total wildcard here, but it would be tough to guess on him this week at the Giants. I actually like him better as a higher waiver selection than Mike Goodson though even though Goodson may be a better play this week. 20 touches? Perhaps. But if neither DeAngelo Williams nor Jonathan Stewart can do anything with those, why should you expect the lesser-talented Goodson to do so, even in a supposed cake matchup? The line can't open up holes, the QB position is a mess, and they're going up against a solid if unspectacular defense that is motivated by a run to the playoffs. No no no. I'll be shocked if anyone on Carolina scores a TD, and even 60-70 all-purpose yards for Goodson seems an excessive estimate. The Bucs' DST is the better sneaky play here. Unfortunately, there really isn't much to be had on most RB waiver wires, so Goodson isn't actually far from the top of that. But why bother? He's a one-week desperation play at best, and plenty of depth guys have a better overall likelihood of production this week. In many cases, I'd go with that guy sitting at the end of your bench over Goodson, and I'd definitely go with most RB2/3s over him.

Man Crush Update:
Danny Woodhead: At Pittsburgh this week, the ultimate test. He already did it against Baltimore, but those weren't your father's Reed-in Ravens, remember? Offensive patterns have shown though that the Patriots will lean on him when the normal running game is shut down, as it should be this week. I'll say another 75 all-purpose yards. TD would be a bonus, but not shocking. Also seems he is the only Patriot with value intact post-Moss - no one would have guessed that. Fred Taylor is expected back soon, and that could put a crimp on his touches, but it would be hard to not rely on the guy at least a little (no pun intended), in both fantasy and reality.

James Starks: Unexpectedly activated from the PUP list instead of sent to IR. That makes things really interesting because it means the Packers think he has more value to them for the rest of this season than does another guy. Don't count him out yet - he could be one of the greatest dark horses of all time, but his top value is still in dynasty leagues.

Chris Ivory: Tough to truly stick with this guy, all things considered. But I'd still wait until PT plays a full game before considering bailing out on him as your #4/5 guy. He could still end up being the Mike Bell of 2010.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Buy order still in effect for Freeman, Blount and especially Mike Williams, a junior Megatron. Trade perceived equal or even slightly better assets if necessary. I'd trade Orton for Freeman, Welker or Ward for Mike Williams, and Ricky Williams for Blount. Keep an eye on Arrelious Benn as well and possibly a late season re-emergence by Kellen Winslow.

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