The Resurrection of Ryan Torain

He was the wunderkind of 2008. The can't-miss stash that folks started rostering in Week 3, even though he wasn't due until Week 9. He was the savior they were counting on to take their 3-5 teams to the fantasy playoffs. And he lasted all of one half.

A game and a half actually, but his debut in Week 9 was only a three-carry teaser. In week 10, coach Shanahan anointed him the feature back, and he responded with 12 carries for 68 yards (a CJ-esque 5.7 YPC average) and a short touchdown in just over one half of play. And then, he was crucified, felled by the infamous ACL tear.

Well folks, he's back. The bell hath tolled for Clinton Portis - he's out at least six weeks, a 30-year-old with the groin of a 50-year-old (no Brett Favre jokes please.) And that stubborn Shanahan, in order to prove his prophecy right, is giving the ball back to Torain.

Call me a doubting Thomas, but I just don't believe the 2010 Torain is as good a model as the 2008. And behind an unproven O-line, he's not in nearly as good a situation. And don't forget that Shanahan, the madman who turns Toms, Dicks and Harries into Ladainians, could easily turn away from the Torain page as quickly as he has turned to it. I still don't say this is a recipe for fantasy success, but while he's in there, he's worth a play during the bye weeks. Just don't be surprised if he gets four carries in Week 6.

Shanahan is the poster child for the scheme, not the back, generating the yardage. Joe Gibbs probably gave him the idea by using unknown before or since Timmy Smith to run for 200+ yards in Superbowl XXII. Unfortunately, this means RBs are becoming interchangeable on some teams, making it much more difficult to get THE guy. Dallas is a perfect example, although Tashard Choice isn't getting as many carries as I expected. Interestingly enough, Dallas has the fewest rushing attempts (69) so far this year, although the bye has something to do with that. They're in the middle of the pack in terms of passing attempts - they just haven't run as many offensive plays as most other teams. And they're only averaging 3.5 yards per rush. It's a fantasy mess if you've got Barber or Felix Jones (or are still holding onto Choice, which isn't that bad an idea, especially in a dynasty league) but have no fear, the Cowboys have one of the most favorable running back schedules remaining. If you have the space, and can get Jones or Barber on the cheap, it's probably worth it. Rumor mill out of Dallas has Jones being more featured going forward, so target him first, but he's always an injury risk. An injury to either would make Choice (very likely available in your pool) immediately worth using.

There are countless example of the NFL's move to multiple and special-duty running backs. What this means is there are less "good" running backs available to needy teams, like the Green Bay Packers. The Packers were in on the Marshawn Lynch talks, but didn't want to pay the price. The trend suggests they're going to have to make do internally (either with James Starks when he comes back, or a combo-back-system like they've done so far.) I still stand by Starks as a great stash, but he's a tough play considering the schedule when he comes back: Minnesota twice, the Jets, Dallas, and a bye. If you can be patient for Week 14 (Detroit), go for it. But it might be a long wait.

The Lynch trade was largely upstaged by the Moss trade less than 24 hours later, but I think the Lynch trade is more fascinating for fantasy owners. I don't believe the Moss trade dramatically changes fantasy values. Moss and Favre will go up, but will simply be what owners expected them to be when they drafted them. Harvin and AP may see a bump, but not a big one, and Brady and Welker's values will only go slightly either way. I originally felt Brandon Tate would benefit the most as the "replacement" for Randy Moss, but I now think it's more likely the Patriots will go to a mutliple-target spread offense a la New Orleans, making all the receivers useful, but very unpredictable, and thus unreliable for fantasy purposes. Another trend in the NFL, if you've got the personnel. The Patriots had it right when they were winning Superbowls - adding Randy Moss changed the formula for success that they had written out of necessity.

The Lynch trade, on the other hand, immediately inflates the values of Lynch, Spiller and especially Fred Jackson, who is a pass-catching featureback in an otherwise lifeless offense. Spiller will get his looks and touches, no doubt, but he still won't be a reliable fantasy play except maybe at the end of the season when the Bills are out of it and just want to see what he can do going forward as a possible featureback. That's the biggest risk in moving forward with Fred Jackson as a good fantasy play - that he'll be lifted during the fantasy playoffs. His schedule isn't terrific either, but when he was featured at least half the time on the same lifeless team last year (a 10-game span in which he totalled nearly 1000 yards from scrimmage), he was an every-week play. And that's NOT including his monster final game in which he carried 33 times for 212 yards. He is the Bills' best option, and they're not afraid to overuse him as they give Spiller development time for the future.

Lynch is much more of a wildcard in terms of value. He's definitely worth more now than he was in Buffalo, but it remains to be seen how he is used and what he does with his usage in Seattle. His first and second years in Buffalo were solid, though not truly spectacular, and similar production going forward would be just fine for owners. The run-blocking in Seattle is apparently better than in Buffalo, he's got a more accomplished QB to throw him the ball out of the backfield, and the schedule is much more favorable for running back production. Justin Forsett is there, yes, but I think Lynch wins the battle for snaps against his former Cal teammate, and thus Forsett's value takes a nosedive. But you never know, Lynch could have been brought in as a motivational tactic - the competition will drive one or the other to be spectacular, and it wouldn't be a shocker if it's Forsett, or if they split time equally. Lost in all this is Leon Washington, who has looked great on returns as usual, but hasn't seen much action in the backfield. I believe that is a mistake because I love his exceptional athleticism and ability, but it will be even harder to get him touches there going forward.