Saturday, October 23, 2010

Gonzo for Gonzo

The middle of the bye weeks are tough enough to deal with without injuries. Ironically though, the injuries actually make more viable plays available on the waiver wire.

A gold mine of high upside wide receivers flooded the market this week, making it relatively easy to roll the dice on one if you're short. The question is, which one?

In San Diego, for example. If Floyd sits out as expected, Patrick Crayton seems like the logical acquisition, but Craig "Buster" Davis could easily be the guy. With a poor pass defense in town, you could plug in Lance Moore, Robert Meachem or Devery Henderson and hope for five or more targets or the jackpot long TD. Jason Avant is startable while Desean Jackson recovers, but how startable?

If you're looking for something that may last a little longer, New England showed Deion Branch still has life left. It did take until the fourth quarter, but against a terrific pass defense. Anyone left behind in Seattle has potential, and at least for the moment it looks as though Mike Williams is back on top, though it would be difficult to truly count on him. And the surprise of the week, Danario Alexander, makes his case as the new Mark Clayton (though not quite Miles Austin.) Frankly, the way Sam Bradford seems to be handling his first year, anyone with any potential there immediately gets a little extra bump up. (Bradford himself is an incredible hold in Dynasty leagues.) But I'm a little hesitant on Alexander anyway. Four catches on five looks doesn't exactly translate to a new favorite target. (Granted, the flow of the game took Alexander out of the equation in the second half so he could have been good for much more.) He's a huge injury risk with major past knee problems. But his size, speed and monster final collegiate season can't be ignored. Neither can Friday's news that Mardy Gilyard may not play Sunday, increasing Alexander's opportunities. He simultaneously represents the second biggest upside and second biggest downside of this week's waiver wire WRs going forward.

The boom or bust category is led by Anthony Gonzalez, sure to be very high on waiver claims next week. Only the fact that the Colts are on a bye is preventing everyone in the world from adding him now, and in many leagues he has already been grabbed. He has the pedigree and the hype as a first round pick in 2007, so management will do everything to give him as many chances as possible. In his fourth year with the program, he obviously knows the system and has played extensively in it. Injuries and inconsistent play have plagued him as multiple guys have lined up and passed him on the depth chart. But just as he's returning to health this year, the Colts lose three prime targets in Austin Collie, Dallas Clark and Joseph Addai. Those three have combined for 99 or the Colts' 171 receptions through six games. Someone has to catch those, and Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon (a superior trade target right now) can't do it all. The stars could not have aligned better for Gonzalez, the most natural slot receiver left to see the underneath targets that were going toward Clark and Collie. We'll see what he does with it (let's hope he stays healthy), but no waiver wire wideout is entering anywhere close to as favorable a situation.

Running back is significantly thinner, and will only get worse with six teams on byes in Weeks 8 and 9. Plan ahead, as you should with your WRs as well. (Plug-and-play is OK for QB, TE, DST, and especially K.) If Danny Woodhead is still out there for any reason, grab him and play him as needed. Double-digit fantasy points may be a fluke, but not when it's three weeks in a row. (He had 115 yards from scrimmage last week. Against Baltimore!) As mentioned in the last column, he has RB AND WR eligibility in most leagues. Chris Ivory had his coming out party in Week 6, and now is on everyone's want list. Probably too late to get him once this column is published, but it looks as though he will have life even after PT and Bush return, as suggested. The jury will likely be out until later this season on Green Bay's James Starks, and it could be tough to gamble on him before then, but he certainly has upside. (Seems like I'm referring back to these guys a lot, so I'll include a separate section in my next column: Man Crush Update.) Emergency options include LeGarrette Blount, Javon Ringer, and surprisingly, Derrick Ward, who's been ticketed for a bigger share in Houston. Look for one series every few, and even perhaps a goalline carry or two in each game. That ain't bad given the alternatives. And if for any reason Donald Brown was dropped in your league, pick him up immediately, bye or no. Addai is out, so Brown is now the present as well as the future (and apparently healthy). Mike Hart is the lesser option, but he's a proven gamer and may still may get the goalline, a potential bonanza in Indy. I'd play him over Barber against the same opponent.

And despite the bizarre rash of tight end injuries, it's still a deep spot. Jacob Tamme inherits Dallas Clark's gig, but I don't like his chances nearly as much as Gonzalez'. He's just one of a gaggle of guys that may or may not do it for you in a given week. None are Dallas Clark or Jermichael Finley, of course, but five short receptions and a glance or two in the end zone should be good enough to get you by indefinitely. Even Antonio Gates owners have a potential late-game-time-decision replacement in John Carlson. He's only 20 percent owned in ESPN leagues, averages near five points per game, and is home against Arizona, as favorable a match as you can get. Just beware of your opponent grabbing him before you do! (My advice: Grab Carlson now, and drop him for a better stash from the late games or byes if Gates is active. Better safe than sorry.)

And one of my favorite play-and-hold guys for this week: Josh Freeman. He's had three strong weeks, one average (last week against the Saints' stingy pass defense) and one poor (I grant him a Mulligan against Pittsburgh.) This week, he's home against St. Louis. Schaub and Manning owners could do plenty worse. And if you think you can handle it, hold him for the fantasy playoffs. Are you ready for this?: Week 14 at Washington, Weeks 15-16 at home against Detroit and Seattle. I give him at least top 8 status each of those weeks, and a top 8 draft spot next year. Tampa Bay has virtually no running game (Freeman may be their best runner), Mike Williams is for real, and Arrelious Benn is in the wings. This season is Freeman's coming-out party. He'll still have his share of stinkers because he's still young, but his upside is higher than any other unestablished QB.

Don't go crazy, but I just wanted to point this out: Ryan Fitzpatrick (yes, Ryan Fitzpatrick) has a 7-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio in three games since taking over as starter in Buffalo. Three straight strong fantasy starts. His passing yardage ain't anything special, but he had seven rushes for 74 yards (against the Jets, no less) in Week 5. Again, don't go crazy. Don't add him, don't play him. (Particularly this week AT Baltimore.) But don't say I didn't mention it.

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