Panic vs. Paradise

An old fantasy adage has never died its proper death: Make sure you have two stud RBs, or you have no chance.

Most savvy fantasy players have moved beyond that, prioritizing the stud QBs just as much, and finding plenty of favor with strong WRs ahead of supposed featurebacks (Michael Turner, for example). But that doesn't mean you should completely disregard the former basic strategy - it just means you shouldn't rely on it to take you to The Promised Land.

Ah, The Promised Land, also known as the fantasy championship. Four months of work yields eight months of glory. Totally worth it. And yes, you do need a couple of studs to get there, but the studs could just as easily be a DST (Chicago this year) as an RB.

I'm focusing on the RBs because a good portion of this year's top stock has not lived up to expectations. The usual big injuries have hit (DeMarco Murray, Maurice Jones-Drew) but even beyond that, several of the RBs generally drafted among the top 30 players overall have somewhat disappointed the owners that drafted them.

Fortunately, almost all have remained strong RB2s, which is why I say it's no time to panic. I invested a great deal in Ryan Mathews over multiple leagues, and his season has been a relative bust thus far. But he's not worthless, and his upside is still potentially gigantic. Same thing with Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden and Jamaal Charles. Worrying is one thing, but selling low is the wrong strategy when any of these guys could post a 20 on any given week. It's tough to sweat the multiple sub-5s that each has posted this season, but I think it's still the best strategy to ride it out unless you can get a more consistent RB2 in return, and there just aren't many out there. While studs like that struggle to be the dominant forces they were reckoned to be, old-school elite RBs (McGahee, Gore) and unexpectedly strong young guys (Ridley, Morris) are instead offering their owners more consistent value. Do you trade for one of those? Difficult, but conceivable.

I'm not ready to recommend trading one of your studs for Pierre Thomas, but the upside here is off the charts provided he can stay healthy. He's proven more adept in the running game than Mark Ingram, and definitely knows how to catch-and-run, though not as perfectly as prototype Darren Sproles, who could be out through the conclusion of your fantasy playoffs. He's an every week play going forward, and a legitimate threat to match the production of pretty much any RB not named Arian Foster. This is a risk-takers dream - if you can get him for a WR2, it's an easy choice.

The NFL is continuing to trend towards a passing league, and that leaves RBs as frequently a secondary commodity. Every year, the middle class of RBs is expanding, while the upper class continues to dissolve. Take that knowledge going forward to have faith in your guys, whether they be high draft picks that have struggled, or mid-level picks that you are afraid will fall off the map. Your RBs will not win you your league anymore. You're going to have to find your ticket to paradise elsewhere. 

Plug-and-Play!
-Isaac Redman. You probably missed him already, but if he's somehow still available, there is no better option if you're stuck this week. Mendenhall and Dwyer are both doubtful, leaving the Steelers without options in the backfield. Going forward, Redman's value is at best a desperation flex play, but he should be a fine RB2 this week.