Your Guess is as Good as Mine

In one of the more intriguing dilemmas of the 2012 fantasy football season, owners were (and may still be) forced to choose between Marcel Reece and Taiwan Jones as the best option in the Raiders backfield, for this week and beyond. 

The potential here for either back is almost off the charts. The guys previously in front of them, Darren McFadden and Mike Goodsen, are both out with high ankle sprains. A notoriously lingering injury for two running backs that are both notorious for letting injuries linger represents a golden opportunity for Reece and/or Jones. Add in a cupcake rush defense schedule, starting with the newly-soft Ravens and the league-worst Saints over the next two weeks, and there is virtually no compelling reason to hold off on buying both guys. Granted, even with McFadden, the Raiders had one of the worst rushing offenses in the league, but some of that has to be attributed to McFadden's seeming inability to excel in the zone blocking scheme, which has proven the superior option throughout the league. Perhaps Reece or Jones can do more with it than McFadden could.

Which of these guys is going to be more valuable is the real question, and there are compelling reasons for both. 

By most accounts, Reece is the guy. He's a big strong fullback (6'1, 255) so he should have no trouble pushing the pile and getting an extra yard or two between the tackles, and will almost certainly be the best option near the goalline. He is trusted in pass protection, and the Raiders will be throwing a lot, so he will simply be on the field a lot more than Jones. And the bonus for this under-the-radar asset: he catches passes as well as anyone else on the roster, so not only will he be in there a lot, he will always be available as a dump-off outlet for Carson Palmer. Long forgotten is that Reece was a wideout in college at Washington, and consistently ran a 40-yard dash in the 4.40s. This is a multi-tool player.

Working against Reece is his lack of experience as a ball carrier, dating back to college. For whatever reason, he has just never been given much of a look in that role, which is somewhat strange given he has a 4.9 YPC average on 48 carries as a pro. And that's not because he had a few breakaway runs - his career long is 31 yards. But only twice in his career has he carried the ball more than three times in one game, once in a blowout win vs. Denver in 2010, and once in a relief role to workhorse Michael Bush late last season against Minnesota when Darren McFadden was on the shelf. In those two games combined, he had 13 carries for 84 yards, and was held to under four yards on only four of those. Get this guy in a rhythm and the opponent may be in trouble. But the sample size is just way too small to extrapolate over a full load.

And it is unlikely he will get a full load. For some reason, Jones is the assumed starter, even though he has even fewer career carries (17) than Reece. A whole slew of factors are working against Jones: lack of experience, lack of size, a history of fumbling (mostly in college), not trusted in pass protection, etc. At 6'0, 197, Jones isn't small, but it's a smaller frame than most NFL teams want for their starting RB. And he runs upright, making himself more susceptible to injury (he's had a lot) and fumbling. That upright style apparently gives him one big advantage over Reece - breakaway speed.

Noted as the fastest player on a fast roster, Jones just needs a few feet of space and a little confidence to take it to the house on any play. Like Reece, he is capable of catching the ball, though probably not with the same sureness. If he gets 10 touches, a conservative estimate, there's a decent chance that one of those goes the distance. But there's probably just as much chance that he doesn't get on the field enough, or lacks the confidence to put his special skills to work in limited opportunities. Reece does.

For that reason, Reece is the better play either as a starter or reserve for you. He will be useful even if Jones succeeds, whereas Jones will probably be relegated to the safety of the bench if Reece succeeds. Reece will always be used in comeback mode, in clock-killing mode, and at the goalline. The only way Jones becomes the better option is if his explosiveness finds immediate life in the new opportunity, particularly against slower defenses that can't catch him around the ends. Otherwise, the safer play for the Raiders and for fantasy owners will be Reece.

That's not to say Jones isn't worth rostering. He is, and with great reason. There are deserved comparisons to Jamaal Charles and C.J. Spiller. But if you have to pick, pick Reece.