Where Have All the Tight Ends Gone?

At the start of the season, there were two tight ends that were considered above (or at worst alongside) the WR1 tier: Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. After that, there was at least a full handful of mid-rounders and another full handful of late-rounders, many hyped as the next Graham or Gronk. A frenzied shopping spree ensued over the first week or two of the season, completely exhausting the supply. But why?

As it turns out, Gronk and Graham are indeed among the best, but only with about 10 fantasy points per game, well below the top WRs and only about four more than the best tight ends on the wire. That is unlikely to make much of a difference in a given week, certainly not enough to justify burning an extra roster spot for. Graham and Gronk may be two of the best options again for Week 8, but if you don't have one of those two (or perhaps the ageless Tony Gonzalez who is leading all tight ends), is any of the others even close to guaranteed to having a better week than say, Joel Dreesen or Brandon Myers? Not Kyle Rudolph, who has now posted back-to-back stinkers after bursting onto the scene with five TDs between Weeks 2 and 6. Ditto Vernon Davis. Not Antonio Gates, who didn't find the end zone UNTIL Week 6 and is on pace for less than 600 yards receiving. Certainly not Jermichael Finley, who is borderline droppable at this point.

The expected tight end explosion has simply not come to fruition. By the nature of the position, there is simply a lower fantasy ceiling, and while a lot more guys may be capable of filling your bye week gaps, few if any are going to make magic for your team this year. Get used to it, and adjust. And remember my credo of not trusting the opposition rankings as much when it comes to tight end - they're far inferior predictors to the ranks against QBs, RBs and TEs. The safest play is to go with the hottest hand or the greatest number of targets, regardless of what his name is or who he is playing.

DST Trap
If you're a big underdog this week, you may consider playing the Raiders DST, facing a Kansas City squad that has been so awful they are letting Brady Quinn take over under center. That seems like an even more enticing draw, but check the facts first. Although it hasn't necessarily been the case this year, the Raiders are traditionally very generous to opposing RBs and this week they draw superstar Jamaal Charles and a now-healthy Peyton Hillis. Playing to that strength, the Chiefs are going to run, run and run some more, virtually guaranteeing a reasonable yardage and point total, and significantly reducing the turnover and sack potential. Just last week, the Raiders hosted a similarly messy Jacksonville team that lost both its starting QB and starting RB, but still failed to put up a reasonable DST number. This week's game is on the road. If you don't need to rely on your DST for the win, look elsewhere, but if you need a big number like a 15+, Kansas City offers that more than any other opponent. But the Raiders are the worst DST in the biz, so don't be surprised if you end up with a 2 (or worse!)

Plug-and-Play!
-Donald Brown is the hot name here, although it's unlikely he was dropped for the two weeks he missed. Vick Ballard is a reasonable grab too if you can get him in time. Both have a great stretch schedule including this week. Ballard gets the edge this week, but I think it's back to Brown going forward.
-Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller are in the same boat as Brown and Ballard with favorable schedules this week and beyond. Unfortunately, neither is the starter. In a pinch for this week, I'd play Thomas, but the more explosive Miller may have the more significant role come fantasy playoff time and the great opponents it features (home dates against Jacksonville and Buffalo in Weeks 15 and 16.)
-Joel Dreesen or Jacob Tamme. Dreesen has emerged as a regular red zone threat, giving him real weekly value (although potentially hit or a miss.) In the Broncos last game, he actually outtargeted Tamme, 7-2, but that hasn't been the norm. Tamme is the safer option, but he appears to be being used in mostly a possession-type role, having only found the end zone in Week 1. Either is as good as most other tight ends this week in what projects as a shootout against New Orleans.
-Sam Bradford. Mark Sanchez just topped 300, a rarity for him, against New England, Bradford's opponent this week. The biggest obstacle for Bradford in achieving greatness is flawed pass protection. The Patriots have tender pass rush and an exploitable secondary. Bradford easily eclipses 300 and probably at least a couple of TDs.