Saturday, October 13, 2012

What's Best?

That's the burning question of the day. Fantasy owners far and wide spent most of Friday awaiting word on the status of Detroit Lions' running back Jahvid Best. Did he "pass" his concussion tests? And if so, when would he return to game action? If not, what was his long-term prognosis and estimated return date?

There's really no way of knowing what his real status is without talking to the independent doctors that are evaluating him, and thus far nothing has been reported from those critical sources. Nothing on Twitter, no real backdoor rumors, no fact-based speculation, positive or negative. It's odd given his upside (both in real life and in fantasy) that there hasn't been more of a swarm of attention that would uncover something, anything that would bring clarity to Detroit Lions fans and fantasy football owners. A flood of "should I add him?"'s inundated the fantasy message boards, but without knowing where he's at, it's an impossible question to answer.

Until there's a concrete "he's back!", I say he's the equivalent of rostering a high-end handcuff that would be pretty valuable if the starter got hurt, but relatively worthless otherwise. And you don't own the starter. That's the choice you make - do you want to use the roster spot for a lottery ticket, or do you want to use it for something more tangible, like a good one-week fill-in or real roster depth?

There is no doubt the guy can be a highlight show on the field at times, but even when he was healthy and playing, he was not a reliable fantasy asset as a rookie. His 2010 debut was a dud (36 yards from scrimmage on 19 touches), but he saved it from a fantasy perspective with two short TDs, high-impact opportunities he is unlikely to receive even he if he is granted a clean bill of health. His second NFL game was the best of his career, as he rattled off 230 yards from scrimmage and three TDs on just 26 touches. For the rest of his rookie season, he failed to break 100 yards from scrimmage (including six games with less than 50 yards) and only found the end zone once more. Fortunately, his second year represented a significant uptick, as four of his six contests were 100+, and the floor was 70 yards.

Most of the chatter about him now has him slotted for a Darren Sproles type receiver-out-of-the-backfield role, and since Sproles finished among the top 10 RBs last year and is in the top 20 again this year, it's easy to get excited about Best. But unlike Sproles, Best's immense fragility makes him one simple misstep away from returning to IR. Forget about taking a hard hit - he could just fall funny, on the field or off, or merely have concussion symptoms return once he starts exerting himself more.

All things considered, it's very tough to justify dropping a player you otherwise wouldn't in order to roster Best. Even if he does come back, you may be in for a bigger headache than he's had. And on a related note, while it's easy for me to be excited for his potential fantasy usage, it's impossible for me to be excited for him personally. I think it's a bad choice for him to return to football, at least this season. As an NHL fan, I've just seen one too many superstars have to endure the torment of postconcussion syndrome just because they wanted to get back out on the ice. It ain't worth it.

I've been debating myself for hours trying to figure out if I should drop Danny Amendola for Best. Amendola is a very curious case, because prior to this year, he had very little fantasy-relevant history. His absence could be as little as three weeks, or as many as eight. His playoff schedule is very attractive. And I am somewhat thin at wideout - Amendola and Hartline are my best. But I also have Bilal Powell and Vick Ballard as my only RB backups to Lynch and Mathews - an increasingly healthy Best would likely provide much more exciting insurance should one of my studs go down. But I don't want to drop Powell or Ballard until I know Best is ready to go. Argh! The good news is the decision will likely be made for me because Best is on waivers and I'm last in the order. I'm vey perplexed as to why someone who had been holding him this long elected to drop him this week - Thursday was about the highest his market value has been since he was playing.

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