You win some, you lose some.
I was admittedly a little erratic on this week's Sneaky Plays, but I did successfuly pick a couple of gems:
Victor Cruz
Prediction: Close to 100 yards as the default possession receiver. Conceivably giant day.
Actual: 110 yards and two TDs. Giant day. Three receptions hardly counts as a possession receiver, but I'll take it. This breakout should establish him as the kind of consistent sneaky WR3 play that Manningham was last year.
Lance Moore
Prediction: Over 100 yards on 8+ receptions.
Actual: 9 receptions, although only 88 yards. And a TD. Again, I'll take it. Like I said, he was cheap before this game - not anymore.
As well as a couple of duds:
Patrick Crayton
Prediction: 100+ yards and a touchdown.
Actual: 47 yards, no TD. Malcom Floyd's unexpected presence put a little crimp on things, but he probably wasn't 100 percent and Gates was out, so Crayton shouldn't have come up this short. But I'm seriously stumped by the whole team on this one. Anyone not named Mathews had a disappointing fantasy day, particularly given the advance expectations.
Chad Ochocinco
Prediction: 75+ yards and a TD.
Actual: 28 yards. In my defense, he dropped a sure TD that would have put him right into my projected range, but that's my fault for trusting him! I knew I'd get burned.
David Nelson was the only one of my big four WR waiver picks that met the receiving yardage expectation of 70+, but failed to find the end zone. Denarius Moore did, but it came on a crazy 23-yard gadget run that saved an otherwise quiet fantasy day. Titus Young and Eric Decker were closer to 50 yards. OK, but nothing you couldn't find on the waiver wire any week.
Monday, September 26, 2011
Saturday, September 24, 2011
Motoring in Motor City
In case you haven't noticed, the Detroit Lions are pretty good. And for once in a long time, I'm not just talking about Megatron.
The cat is out of the bag on these cats. If you were smart enough to draft Matt Stafford as your backup quarterback in the mid-to-late rounds, you've hit the jackpot on fantasy's newest every-week QB1. Jahvid Best has still not broken off a trademark big run, but it hasn't mattered. (And he hasn't suffered any injuries.... yet.) It's not Calvin Johnson with the most receptions or receiving yards - that would be Nate Burleson. In Week 2, rookie Titus Young emerged as a threat to put up similar numbers in this multi-pronged attack, which is a lock to go three-wide on a regular basis. Brandon Pettigrew has gotten off to a quiet start, but his time will come, and Tony Scheffler has two TD receptions in the meantime. Keiland Williams even got into the act with a short TD run, and not all of them in the future will come in garbage time. Even Jerome Harrison would possibly be a viable fantasy play if he were to start garnering a few more snaps.
There is no shortage of options here, much like Green Bay and New Orleans, so I'm going all-in for the duration. Get whatever Lions you can while they're still affordable, because they're only going to get better. Megatron was a bonafide first-rounder, and you may have missed any window on Stafford and Best. But Burleson can probably still be had relatively cheaply, and Pettigrew and Young may even be on your waiver wire.
Granted, they put up a horde of great stats against Kansas City, a team that looks like it's handing out touchdowns like promotional T-shirts. So technically the jury is still out. But with a healthy Stafford at the helm, it's hard not to get excited about the possibilities. Last Sunday was just a sampling.
Stafford is emblematic of what so far is clearly a quarterback's year, with a handful of elite WRs as the prime beneficiaries (or benefactors, depending on how you view it.) The season is very young, obviously, but through two weeks you have seven quarterbacks averaging better than 20 fantasy points per game in a standard settings league, and two others just short of that. And that's not including Michael Vick, Philip Rivers or Peyton Manning. Last year, Vick was the only one, with a dominating average near 25. (Aaron Rodgers just missed it, and probably would have gotten there if not for missing a game and a half due to injury.) Last year, the average of the top 12 was 17.11. This year, it's five points better at 22.00. There's no way that holds up for the season, but there sure are a lot of points being provided from that money position so far. The problem is, everyone's got one of those guys now, so your high pick on Rodgers or Vick hasn't exactly made much of a difference yet. Sure, perennial gunslinger Tom Brady is not surprisingly leading the way with a robust 31, but Stafford, Cam Newton and Ryan Fitzpatrick are new names among the top five.
Rivers will have a pretty good shot to try to crack that after this week, as the Chargers are hosting a reeling Kansas City Chiefs team that allowed four passing TDs each to Stafford and Fitzpatrick. (Only two other teams have allowed more than four passing TDs over the first two games combined.) This will be perhaps the most intriguing game for fantasy owners this week for a variety of reasons. Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert are both legitimate starts, especially as receivers out of the backfield and as clock-killers with a big lead. Mathews has a very real chance to have a huge game and grab the lion's share of the carries going forward as he has been the far more effective rusher of the two. One more game like that and the true timeshare may be done and my vision of Mike Tolbert as the dream RB3 / upstart RB2 will be done. For the receivers, Malcom Floyd is out, and Patrick Crayton is in. Antonio Gates is a giant question mark after not practicing all week, leaving Crayton's arrow pointing even higher. On the other side, we'll get the answer to what's going to happen in the backfield post-Jamaal-Charles. As you know, I like Dexter McCluster. A lot. But the more I think about it, the more I respect Thomas Jones, although probably still not as a fantasy asset. This is a guy that has always been a champion among his peers, a motivated hard-worker that stays in great shape and leads by word and by example. His offensive line may give that little extra push for him now that he needs their support more than ever as the default lead back. I still say this is tough sledding for anyone on that team, and I still think McCluster has the bigger upside, but a motivated Jones is not someone to underestimate. He may surprise us all and end up with a season akin to Fred Jackson's 2010 (over 1000 yards-from-scrimmage to go with seven TDs.)
Waiver Claim Carousel
I mentioned in my column earlier this week that it was a deep one for waiver claims, and it got a lot deeper with some late-breaking news. Roy Helu was the big RB pickup alongside McCluster and Jones, and there was definitely widespread speculation on both Demarco Murray (the wiser investment) and Tashard Choice. Thursday evening, there was a mad rush for free agent Bernard Scott on the news that Cedric Benson would be likely to miss Weeks 4-6 via suspension, and it's an excellent speculative pickup given his talent and the schedule. We might actually see a changing of the guard in real time with advance warning. But Scott will have to prove something significant during his audition, or else it will be quickly back to CedBen. With Peyton Hillis missing practice Friday with illness, Montario Hardesty popped back up on the radar, and he's another guy that may just need one full-game look to be relevant. He's not vanishing Hillis, mind you, but a more consistent change-of-pace role going forward could be in the works regardless of whether or not Hillis suits up Sunday. Ditto Javon Ringer. Jerious Norwood? Not so much. Steven Jackson and Cadillac Williams may both miss Sunday's home game, but Norwood is not an option against the Ravens. I'm lukewarm on Chester Taylor if Beanie Wells sits. It's hard not to like anyone against the Seahawks, but it is Chester Taylor after all. That ship sailed a while ago. Nevertheless, that brings the overall total to nine options for this week at RB. And here I thought it was the WR waiver that was deep.
Titus Young is my personal favorite of the Class of Week 2, but I believe Buffalo's David Nelson has the best chance to shine on this particular weekend against a New England secondary that was performing poorly even WITH starting safety Patrick Chung, who's potentially out for this game with a broken finger. Denarius Moore and Eric Decker were the other high-end claims, and I like their respective chances going forward, certainly more so than most of the RBs listed above. None of these guys can be considered sneaky plays just a week after coming out, but for the record, I like each of them for 70+ yards and at least two scores among the foursome. Count on Nelson for one of those, as well as triple-digit yardage.
Sneaky Plays
Patrick Crayton: 100+ yards and a touchdown. Even more if Gates sits. Great opportunity for the Chargers to get his feet really wet with a win almost assured. They'll throw it to him the whole game, even with a good lead, while Gates and Jackson take the second half off. A dark dark darkhorse for the same kind of opportunity is rookie wideout Vincent Brown, if he's active. Actually, pretty much any active Charger is a good play this week.
Victor Cruz: Close to 100 yards as the default possession receiver. Unfortunately, Brandon Stokley is also a good candidate for this kind of line, and if so, saps Cruz' value. Cruz does bring a unique playmaking and deep threat ability that Stokley lacks, so he could conceivably have a giant day. (Pun intended.) I'd excitedly start him if I was in a real pinch.
Lance Moore: Over 100 yards on 8+ receptions. He's close to 100 percent, Colston is still out, this will likely be a shootout, and Drew Brees loves him. If he's available in your pool, this is the last chance to get him for nothing.
Chad Ochocinco: 75+ yards and a TD. This one may come back to bite me, but he's due, and the Patriots are motivated to get him involved. Like everyone else, he gets a bump with Hernandez out
Outside of my prediction for the big four WR waiver wire pickups, that's all I've got for you this week, guys. All wideouts. I've got a good feeling about Demarco Murray for some reason, but I'm not going to bet on it.
P.S. A couple of conflicting indicators on my Nate Solder TD-reception watch. After releasing Dan, the lesser of the two Gronkowskis, the Patriots are now down to one tight end on the roster, and eyeing Solder for at least spot duty there seems to make sense. But they also declared starting tackle Sebastian Vollmer out for this week, so they'll probably need Solder much more at his natural position on a full-time basis. My gut says he’ll still see a handful of eligible snaps this week, but won’t have more than one target. Probably not in the end zone, but you just never know.
The cat is out of the bag on these cats. If you were smart enough to draft Matt Stafford as your backup quarterback in the mid-to-late rounds, you've hit the jackpot on fantasy's newest every-week QB1. Jahvid Best has still not broken off a trademark big run, but it hasn't mattered. (And he hasn't suffered any injuries.... yet.) It's not Calvin Johnson with the most receptions or receiving yards - that would be Nate Burleson. In Week 2, rookie Titus Young emerged as a threat to put up similar numbers in this multi-pronged attack, which is a lock to go three-wide on a regular basis. Brandon Pettigrew has gotten off to a quiet start, but his time will come, and Tony Scheffler has two TD receptions in the meantime. Keiland Williams even got into the act with a short TD run, and not all of them in the future will come in garbage time. Even Jerome Harrison would possibly be a viable fantasy play if he were to start garnering a few more snaps.
There is no shortage of options here, much like Green Bay and New Orleans, so I'm going all-in for the duration. Get whatever Lions you can while they're still affordable, because they're only going to get better. Megatron was a bonafide first-rounder, and you may have missed any window on Stafford and Best. But Burleson can probably still be had relatively cheaply, and Pettigrew and Young may even be on your waiver wire.
Granted, they put up a horde of great stats against Kansas City, a team that looks like it's handing out touchdowns like promotional T-shirts. So technically the jury is still out. But with a healthy Stafford at the helm, it's hard not to get excited about the possibilities. Last Sunday was just a sampling.
Stafford is emblematic of what so far is clearly a quarterback's year, with a handful of elite WRs as the prime beneficiaries (or benefactors, depending on how you view it.) The season is very young, obviously, but through two weeks you have seven quarterbacks averaging better than 20 fantasy points per game in a standard settings league, and two others just short of that. And that's not including Michael Vick, Philip Rivers or Peyton Manning. Last year, Vick was the only one, with a dominating average near 25. (Aaron Rodgers just missed it, and probably would have gotten there if not for missing a game and a half due to injury.) Last year, the average of the top 12 was 17.11. This year, it's five points better at 22.00. There's no way that holds up for the season, but there sure are a lot of points being provided from that money position so far. The problem is, everyone's got one of those guys now, so your high pick on Rodgers or Vick hasn't exactly made much of a difference yet. Sure, perennial gunslinger Tom Brady is not surprisingly leading the way with a robust 31, but Stafford, Cam Newton and Ryan Fitzpatrick are new names among the top five.
Rivers will have a pretty good shot to try to crack that after this week, as the Chargers are hosting a reeling Kansas City Chiefs team that allowed four passing TDs each to Stafford and Fitzpatrick. (Only two other teams have allowed more than four passing TDs over the first two games combined.) This will be perhaps the most intriguing game for fantasy owners this week for a variety of reasons. Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert are both legitimate starts, especially as receivers out of the backfield and as clock-killers with a big lead. Mathews has a very real chance to have a huge game and grab the lion's share of the carries going forward as he has been the far more effective rusher of the two. One more game like that and the true timeshare may be done and my vision of Mike Tolbert as the dream RB3 / upstart RB2 will be done. For the receivers, Malcom Floyd is out, and Patrick Crayton is in. Antonio Gates is a giant question mark after not practicing all week, leaving Crayton's arrow pointing even higher. On the other side, we'll get the answer to what's going to happen in the backfield post-Jamaal-Charles. As you know, I like Dexter McCluster. A lot. But the more I think about it, the more I respect Thomas Jones, although probably still not as a fantasy asset. This is a guy that has always been a champion among his peers, a motivated hard-worker that stays in great shape and leads by word and by example. His offensive line may give that little extra push for him now that he needs their support more than ever as the default lead back. I still say this is tough sledding for anyone on that team, and I still think McCluster has the bigger upside, but a motivated Jones is not someone to underestimate. He may surprise us all and end up with a season akin to Fred Jackson's 2010 (over 1000 yards-from-scrimmage to go with seven TDs.)
Waiver Claim Carousel
I mentioned in my column earlier this week that it was a deep one for waiver claims, and it got a lot deeper with some late-breaking news. Roy Helu was the big RB pickup alongside McCluster and Jones, and there was definitely widespread speculation on both Demarco Murray (the wiser investment) and Tashard Choice. Thursday evening, there was a mad rush for free agent Bernard Scott on the news that Cedric Benson would be likely to miss Weeks 4-6 via suspension, and it's an excellent speculative pickup given his talent and the schedule. We might actually see a changing of the guard in real time with advance warning. But Scott will have to prove something significant during his audition, or else it will be quickly back to CedBen. With Peyton Hillis missing practice Friday with illness, Montario Hardesty popped back up on the radar, and he's another guy that may just need one full-game look to be relevant. He's not vanishing Hillis, mind you, but a more consistent change-of-pace role going forward could be in the works regardless of whether or not Hillis suits up Sunday. Ditto Javon Ringer. Jerious Norwood? Not so much. Steven Jackson and Cadillac Williams may both miss Sunday's home game, but Norwood is not an option against the Ravens. I'm lukewarm on Chester Taylor if Beanie Wells sits. It's hard not to like anyone against the Seahawks, but it is Chester Taylor after all. That ship sailed a while ago. Nevertheless, that brings the overall total to nine options for this week at RB. And here I thought it was the WR waiver that was deep.
Titus Young is my personal favorite of the Class of Week 2, but I believe Buffalo's David Nelson has the best chance to shine on this particular weekend against a New England secondary that was performing poorly even WITH starting safety Patrick Chung, who's potentially out for this game with a broken finger. Denarius Moore and Eric Decker were the other high-end claims, and I like their respective chances going forward, certainly more so than most of the RBs listed above. None of these guys can be considered sneaky plays just a week after coming out, but for the record, I like each of them for 70+ yards and at least two scores among the foursome. Count on Nelson for one of those, as well as triple-digit yardage.
Sneaky Plays
Patrick Crayton: 100+ yards and a touchdown. Even more if Gates sits. Great opportunity for the Chargers to get his feet really wet with a win almost assured. They'll throw it to him the whole game, even with a good lead, while Gates and Jackson take the second half off. A dark dark darkhorse for the same kind of opportunity is rookie wideout Vincent Brown, if he's active. Actually, pretty much any active Charger is a good play this week.
Victor Cruz: Close to 100 yards as the default possession receiver. Unfortunately, Brandon Stokley is also a good candidate for this kind of line, and if so, saps Cruz' value. Cruz does bring a unique playmaking and deep threat ability that Stokley lacks, so he could conceivably have a giant day. (Pun intended.) I'd excitedly start him if I was in a real pinch.
Lance Moore: Over 100 yards on 8+ receptions. He's close to 100 percent, Colston is still out, this will likely be a shootout, and Drew Brees loves him. If he's available in your pool, this is the last chance to get him for nothing.
Chad Ochocinco: 75+ yards and a TD. This one may come back to bite me, but he's due, and the Patriots are motivated to get him involved. Like everyone else, he gets a bump with Hernandez out
Outside of my prediction for the big four WR waiver wire pickups, that's all I've got for you this week, guys. All wideouts. I've got a good feeling about Demarco Murray for some reason, but I'm not going to bet on it.
P.S. A couple of conflicting indicators on my Nate Solder TD-reception watch. After releasing Dan, the lesser of the two Gronkowskis, the Patriots are now down to one tight end on the roster, and eyeing Solder for at least spot duty there seems to make sense. But they also declared starting tackle Sebastian Vollmer out for this week, so they'll probably need Solder much more at his natural position on a full-time basis. My gut says he’ll still see a handful of eligible snaps this week, but won’t have more than one target. Probably not in the end zone, but you just never know.
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Go Go Gadget
Okay, the big news of the week is obviously Jamaal Charles. And every pundit in the world is saying it will be a Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster split going forward, and that both are worth adding.
I agree. To some extent.
I think it's correct to assume Thomas Jones probably gets more carries, and probably plugs along with a sub-4.0 per carry average, possibly sub-3.0. He's probably also the first choice at the goalline, although I firmly believe LeRon McClain will get a look there as well. McClain has done it before, and Todd Haley has little left to lose.
The problem is, there probably are not going to be that many goalline chances. The same thing that's killing Addai this year (Delone Carter notwithstanding) is what will prevent Thomas Jones from being anything close to a weekly play, or even a high upside bye week play. There is simply nothing to see here, even if he does get 15-20 carries a week. Think Jamal Lewis with Cleveland at the end of 2008. For the season, Lewis had 279 carries but never reached 100 yards in a game. He had 4 TDs, none after Week 9.
No, the guy to gamble on is McCluster, who at least has a chance to be a regular worthwhile play, especially with WR eligibility. He'll likely get as many touches as Jones (though not as many carries) and he'll definitely do more with them. He also has a good chance at the occasional return TD. I hate to say I told you so, but.....
Strangely, I'm not sure if McCluster's value is higher with Charles or without him. (Probably without.) Charles could easily put defenses on their heels, creating windows of opportunity for McCluster, especially whenever they lined up in the backfield together. Now McCluster will have fewer holes to find, but he does have the talent to burst through and rip off big gains when he does find them. Now if he could just stop fumbling. I'm convinced that one fumble is the inverse equivalent of roughly 2-3 TDs to a head coach or offensive coordinator. You're allowed to have the odd fumble as long as you're racking up the TDs. But if you're fumbling more than once every two times you hit paydirt, you won't have your dream job for long, Steve Slaton. McCluster is rapidly approaching the red zone on this one, and I'm not talking about that area of the field down near the goalline.
Another big news item, though merely a continuation of a story that began in Week One, is that Cam Newton is for real. He threw three INTs, yes, but Cutler could do that in his sleep. With no defenders on the field. And this was against Green Bay, not Arizona. He had 400+ passing yards again thanks mostly to 46 passing attempts. That just naturally adds up, and those attempts will continue to stay high if Carolina finds itself behind frequently, which is likely. And perhaps most startling of all, he led the team in both rushing attempts (10) and yards (53) on a team that still fields both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart on its active gameday roster! He has a short rushing TD in each of his two games so far. If you were lucky enough to be the guy that waiver wired him last week, congratulations on winning the 2011 fantasy football lottery. Awfully early, I must say. Now granted, we're only two weeks in, and defenses will gradually find more and more effective ways to slow the guy down a bit, but man, what a start!
What a start for Rob Gronkowski as well. He has 86 yards in each of his first two games, and has seven TD catches in his last six regular season games, failing to find the end zone just once in that span, with or without Aaron Hernandez there to steal targets. Well, Hernandez is definitely out, for 1-8 weeks depending on who you ask. I cannot imagine Gronkowski can possibly be much better than he has been, but it's good to know you can at least count on that kind of production in the interim. I'll confidently gamble on him as the best fantasy tight end play until Hernandez returns. The Hernandez targets are likely to be spread out though, so everyone gets a little bump, including Ochocinco and Woodhead. And you want a sneaky play? How about rookie offensive guard Nate Solder, who was declared as an eligible tight end on roughly 10 plays Sunday after Hernandez went down. He didn't see a target, but trust me, those are coming. So is a touchdown reception. (Too bad he doesn't have TE eligibility in any fantasy football systems.... yet.) Solder actually started his college career at Colorado as a tight end, so he knows how to catch and run, and he's taller than anyone else on the field (6'9, and 315 to boot) so a jump ball in the end zone seems like a logical option. The Patriots already have the old eligible-tight-end-trick in their playbook (remember Mike Vrabel?) so why not bust it out now when you've got an extra offensive lineman to use as a wildcard on the end, either as the best blocking tight end in history or as a sneaky outlet for the ultra-accurate Brady? If it works, defenses will be absolutely dizzy once Hernandez actually returns. I would never have imagined this scenario actually created more incentive for the Patriots to draft him, but Belichick is a mad genius and the two tight end sets worked great last year, so I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to hear that that factored into it somewhere.
Solder is not addable yet, but he would probably be well down the waiver list anyway given the alternatives right now. This is a great week to have a bad waiver position because there are a ridiculous amount of solid options, especially at wide receiver. In addition to McCluster as a wildcard wideout, you've got Eric Decker (who?) at the top of the list, but there are probably 2-3 others that could also morph into WR3s and a handful of others that at least qualify as much better than the last WR at the end of your bench. If Deion Branch is for any reason still out there in your league, he's a must add with Hernandez out. Ryan Fitzpatrick is another auto-add in the few leagues he's still around. At tight end, you can forget about Chris Cooley knocking down Fred Davis' value, and Dustin Keller is steadily trending up. It looks like Davis can be played every week with confidence, and Keller is almost back to that status as well. Roy Helu should be the top RB add over McCluster and Jones, but they're close, and you could definitely make a case for Delone Carter although dearth of critical opportunity will limit him. Javon Ringer may start to see some more carries, but I still don't like him behind Chris Johnson, and I'm not about to be fooled again by Tashard Choice (or Demarco Murray) but they will be hot adds as well. Choice, my once wonderboy, has fallen far off the lofty perch that won me my semifinal when he ran it in from 40 yards out in the closing minutes of Week 15 in 2009. You're looking at close to 10 top waiver picks in many leagues, so it will be like Christmas morning for everyone.
Sneaky Plays Scorecard
Brandon Jacobs
Predicted: 75+ yards plus one touchdown.
Actual: 67 all-purpose yards and a TD. More stifling Bradshaw's value than really making a fantasy niche for himself, but decent enough.
Ladainian Tomlinson:
Prediction: Close to 100 all-purpose yards, 50/50 shot at a TD.
Actual: 15 all-purpose yards. Really, LT?
Devery Henderson:
Prediction: 100+ yards plus 1 TD.
Actual: 103 yards and a TD. Okay, it was only three receptions, one going for a 79-yard TD, but still!
Nate Burleson:
Prediction: Just short of 100 yards, but good enough.
Actual: 93 yards. This is getting scary.
Dustin Keller:
Prediction: 50+ yards and a touchdown.
Actual: 101 yards and a TD. Better than I expected. I hope you bought low when I told you to.
I went 4-for-5, folks, a week after going 4-for-6 with a couple of sac flies. I'm not sure from where I'm receiving this divine insight, but I'm going to enjoy my hot streak while it lasts. 0-for-5 is coming soon enough.
I agree. To some extent.
I think it's correct to assume Thomas Jones probably gets more carries, and probably plugs along with a sub-4.0 per carry average, possibly sub-3.0. He's probably also the first choice at the goalline, although I firmly believe LeRon McClain will get a look there as well. McClain has done it before, and Todd Haley has little left to lose.
The problem is, there probably are not going to be that many goalline chances. The same thing that's killing Addai this year (Delone Carter notwithstanding) is what will prevent Thomas Jones from being anything close to a weekly play, or even a high upside bye week play. There is simply nothing to see here, even if he does get 15-20 carries a week. Think Jamal Lewis with Cleveland at the end of 2008. For the season, Lewis had 279 carries but never reached 100 yards in a game. He had 4 TDs, none after Week 9.
No, the guy to gamble on is McCluster, who at least has a chance to be a regular worthwhile play, especially with WR eligibility. He'll likely get as many touches as Jones (though not as many carries) and he'll definitely do more with them. He also has a good chance at the occasional return TD. I hate to say I told you so, but.....
Strangely, I'm not sure if McCluster's value is higher with Charles or without him. (Probably without.) Charles could easily put defenses on their heels, creating windows of opportunity for McCluster, especially whenever they lined up in the backfield together. Now McCluster will have fewer holes to find, but he does have the talent to burst through and rip off big gains when he does find them. Now if he could just stop fumbling. I'm convinced that one fumble is the inverse equivalent of roughly 2-3 TDs to a head coach or offensive coordinator. You're allowed to have the odd fumble as long as you're racking up the TDs. But if you're fumbling more than once every two times you hit paydirt, you won't have your dream job for long, Steve Slaton. McCluster is rapidly approaching the red zone on this one, and I'm not talking about that area of the field down near the goalline.
Another big news item, though merely a continuation of a story that began in Week One, is that Cam Newton is for real. He threw three INTs, yes, but Cutler could do that in his sleep. With no defenders on the field. And this was against Green Bay, not Arizona. He had 400+ passing yards again thanks mostly to 46 passing attempts. That just naturally adds up, and those attempts will continue to stay high if Carolina finds itself behind frequently, which is likely. And perhaps most startling of all, he led the team in both rushing attempts (10) and yards (53) on a team that still fields both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart on its active gameday roster! He has a short rushing TD in each of his two games so far. If you were lucky enough to be the guy that waiver wired him last week, congratulations on winning the 2011 fantasy football lottery. Awfully early, I must say. Now granted, we're only two weeks in, and defenses will gradually find more and more effective ways to slow the guy down a bit, but man, what a start!
What a start for Rob Gronkowski as well. He has 86 yards in each of his first two games, and has seven TD catches in his last six regular season games, failing to find the end zone just once in that span, with or without Aaron Hernandez there to steal targets. Well, Hernandez is definitely out, for 1-8 weeks depending on who you ask. I cannot imagine Gronkowski can possibly be much better than he has been, but it's good to know you can at least count on that kind of production in the interim. I'll confidently gamble on him as the best fantasy tight end play until Hernandez returns. The Hernandez targets are likely to be spread out though, so everyone gets a little bump, including Ochocinco and Woodhead. And you want a sneaky play? How about rookie offensive guard Nate Solder, who was declared as an eligible tight end on roughly 10 plays Sunday after Hernandez went down. He didn't see a target, but trust me, those are coming. So is a touchdown reception. (Too bad he doesn't have TE eligibility in any fantasy football systems.... yet.) Solder actually started his college career at Colorado as a tight end, so he knows how to catch and run, and he's taller than anyone else on the field (6'9, and 315 to boot) so a jump ball in the end zone seems like a logical option. The Patriots already have the old eligible-tight-end-trick in their playbook (remember Mike Vrabel?) so why not bust it out now when you've got an extra offensive lineman to use as a wildcard on the end, either as the best blocking tight end in history or as a sneaky outlet for the ultra-accurate Brady? If it works, defenses will be absolutely dizzy once Hernandez actually returns. I would never have imagined this scenario actually created more incentive for the Patriots to draft him, but Belichick is a mad genius and the two tight end sets worked great last year, so I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to hear that that factored into it somewhere.
Solder is not addable yet, but he would probably be well down the waiver list anyway given the alternatives right now. This is a great week to have a bad waiver position because there are a ridiculous amount of solid options, especially at wide receiver. In addition to McCluster as a wildcard wideout, you've got Eric Decker (who?) at the top of the list, but there are probably 2-3 others that could also morph into WR3s and a handful of others that at least qualify as much better than the last WR at the end of your bench. If Deion Branch is for any reason still out there in your league, he's a must add with Hernandez out. Ryan Fitzpatrick is another auto-add in the few leagues he's still around. At tight end, you can forget about Chris Cooley knocking down Fred Davis' value, and Dustin Keller is steadily trending up. It looks like Davis can be played every week with confidence, and Keller is almost back to that status as well. Roy Helu should be the top RB add over McCluster and Jones, but they're close, and you could definitely make a case for Delone Carter although dearth of critical opportunity will limit him. Javon Ringer may start to see some more carries, but I still don't like him behind Chris Johnson, and I'm not about to be fooled again by Tashard Choice (or Demarco Murray) but they will be hot adds as well. Choice, my once wonderboy, has fallen far off the lofty perch that won me my semifinal when he ran it in from 40 yards out in the closing minutes of Week 15 in 2009. You're looking at close to 10 top waiver picks in many leagues, so it will be like Christmas morning for everyone.
Sneaky Plays Scorecard
Brandon Jacobs
Predicted: 75+ yards plus one touchdown.
Actual: 67 all-purpose yards and a TD. More stifling Bradshaw's value than really making a fantasy niche for himself, but decent enough.
Ladainian Tomlinson:
Prediction: Close to 100 all-purpose yards, 50/50 shot at a TD.
Actual: 15 all-purpose yards. Really, LT?
Devery Henderson:
Prediction: 100+ yards plus 1 TD.
Actual: 103 yards and a TD. Okay, it was only three receptions, one going for a 79-yard TD, but still!
Nate Burleson:
Prediction: Just short of 100 yards, but good enough.
Actual: 93 yards. This is getting scary.
Dustin Keller:
Prediction: 50+ yards and a touchdown.
Actual: 101 yards and a TD. Better than I expected. I hope you bought low when I told you to.
I went 4-for-5, folks, a week after going 4-for-6 with a couple of sac flies. I'm not sure from where I'm receiving this divine insight, but I'm going to enjoy my hot streak while it lasts. 0-for-5 is coming soon enough.
Sunday, September 18, 2011
Sunday Morning Quarterback
This blog was intended to address unique topics at otherwise slow times in the fantasy football news cycle. I am realizing more and more that early Sunday is one of those times. I'm absolutely itching for the games to begin and yet I know I'll be a mental vegetable by the end of the day again because of them. Why do I subject myself to this torture?
As a million ideas float through my head (was dropping Deji Karim for Brandon Jacobs a good idea?), one that keeps recurring is who will be the next fantasy superstar in the passing offenses of Green Bay and New Orleans?
Opening Night, New Orleans at Green Bay, was an absolute delight for football fans and fantasy fans alike, and the concept was on full display. Randall Cobb and Darren Sproles, total afterthoughts on Draft Day, were as fantasy-useful as they were real-life exciting. Robert Meachem AND Devery Henderson both had touchdown receptions - usually, it's one or the other, and you never know which. Donald Driver, for once, didn't put a huge crimp on the values of the other Green Bay receivers.
Colston going down lifts every Saints receiver up a peg, but Lance Moore's return probably has the opposite effect once it comes to fruition. Adrian Arrington (!?) is the Hail Mary play today if Moore sits again, but it's hard not to get at least a little excited about Sproles and Meachem regardless, and so too Jimmy Graham. It's sooner rather than later that this guy breaks out in a monster way. I'd also be OK playing Henderson with more confidence than usual, at least until Moore is indeed back.
In Green Bay, I'm itching for the dominant Jermichael Finley to emerge, but it's going to be tough will all the options up there. Jordy Nelson is now firmly in the mix, as well as two legit RBs. I think Finley will ultimately be fine if not Gates-esque dominant, and Greg Jennings, though probably not as featured as he was last year, will still be No. 1. Nelson seems to be separating as much on the depth chart as on the field, but we said the same thing last year about James Jones, who you can't help but think still lurks in the background. And Cobb, how can you keep him off the field for much longer? I guess when you've got the guys you do ahead of him, you can take your time, but dynasty leaguers want action now! Don't even get me started on reception-vulture Driver, the Derrick Mason of the Midwest. Whenever this team is playing critical or grinding midseason games, the savvy veteran will be a big part of the gameplan, thwarting the hopes of fantasy owners everywhere.
The reality is that both of these teams have enough depth to field two full corps of receivers each, a big part of why Rodgers and Brees are two of the most reliable fantasy QBs in the biz. Even without Colston, his top wideout, Brees is unlikely to take a hit. Rodgers was nearly unaffected by the loss of Finley last year and my guess is he'll be that much better with him healthy this year.
As a million ideas float through my head (was dropping Deji Karim for Brandon Jacobs a good idea?), one that keeps recurring is who will be the next fantasy superstar in the passing offenses of Green Bay and New Orleans?
Opening Night, New Orleans at Green Bay, was an absolute delight for football fans and fantasy fans alike, and the concept was on full display. Randall Cobb and Darren Sproles, total afterthoughts on Draft Day, were as fantasy-useful as they were real-life exciting. Robert Meachem AND Devery Henderson both had touchdown receptions - usually, it's one or the other, and you never know which. Donald Driver, for once, didn't put a huge crimp on the values of the other Green Bay receivers.
Colston going down lifts every Saints receiver up a peg, but Lance Moore's return probably has the opposite effect once it comes to fruition. Adrian Arrington (!?) is the Hail Mary play today if Moore sits again, but it's hard not to get at least a little excited about Sproles and Meachem regardless, and so too Jimmy Graham. It's sooner rather than later that this guy breaks out in a monster way. I'd also be OK playing Henderson with more confidence than usual, at least until Moore is indeed back.
In Green Bay, I'm itching for the dominant Jermichael Finley to emerge, but it's going to be tough will all the options up there. Jordy Nelson is now firmly in the mix, as well as two legit RBs. I think Finley will ultimately be fine if not Gates-esque dominant, and Greg Jennings, though probably not as featured as he was last year, will still be No. 1. Nelson seems to be separating as much on the depth chart as on the field, but we said the same thing last year about James Jones, who you can't help but think still lurks in the background. And Cobb, how can you keep him off the field for much longer? I guess when you've got the guys you do ahead of him, you can take your time, but dynasty leaguers want action now! Don't even get me started on reception-vulture Driver, the Derrick Mason of the Midwest. Whenever this team is playing critical or grinding midseason games, the savvy veteran will be a big part of the gameplan, thwarting the hopes of fantasy owners everywhere.
The reality is that both of these teams have enough depth to field two full corps of receivers each, a big part of why Rodgers and Brees are two of the most reliable fantasy QBs in the biz. Even without Colston, his top wideout, Brees is unlikely to take a hit. Rodgers was nearly unaffected by the loss of Finley last year and my guess is he'll be that much better with him healthy this year.
Saturday, September 17, 2011
The RB2/3 Debate and Handcuff Dilemma
One of the terms it takes some getting used to in fantasy football is RB1, WR2, etc. Frankly, I can't find anything anywhere that describes exactly what the terms mean to everyone, but one thing is certain - the lower the number, the more valuable they are on a relative scale.
It's safe to say any player with a "1" designation is an every-week fantasy starter, a reliable play with pretty big upside. No one can say that they will never stink it up, but certainly less frequently than players with a higher number designation. The more 1s you have in your lineup, the stronger it is.
We'll get to the 2s and 3s in a minute, but once you get past that range, you're basically shooting craps. A WR4/5 (Devery Henderson?) may or may not pan out in any given week. An RB4/5 is usually no better than the lesser half of a committee, someone you'd play only out of desperation and hope for a lucky TD. Because you will never field a lineup with all 1s, and you don't want to have to play any 4/5s, a big part of optimizing your lineup, for the season and for each week, is choosing the correct RBs and WRs in the 2/3 range.
It's safe to say any player with a "1" designation is an every-week fantasy starter, a reliable play with pretty big upside. No one can say that they will never stink it up, but certainly less frequently than players with a higher number designation. The more 1s you have in your lineup, the stronger it is.
We'll get to the 2s and 3s in a minute, but once you get past that range, you're basically shooting craps. A WR4/5 (Devery Henderson?) may or may not pan out in any given week. An RB4/5 is usually no better than the lesser half of a committee, someone you'd play only out of desperation and hope for a lucky TD. Because you will never field a lineup with all 1s, and you don't want to have to play any 4/5s, a big part of optimizing your lineup, for the season and for each week, is choosing the correct RBs and WRs in the 2/3 range.
RB2s are often supposed to be every-week starters, and yet it's not unusual for them to get stuffed (Week 1 exhibits: Moreno, Greene, Blount, DeAngelo Williams.) You can combine two of them to cover one roster spot and then mix-and-match based on opponent, but they're still far less reliable than RB1s even in good situations against favorable opponents. And it still hurts almost as much if you used a high draft pick on one and he gets injured. My opinion is that it's better to have a higher volume of more speculative RB3s (Jacobs, Tolbert, etc.) that you were able to snag in the later rounds than to rely on two expensive RB2s to cover that spot. It gives you even more options to play matchups or hot hands, as well as extra lottery tickets. At the very least, you should always prioritize a deeper insurance plan consisting of RB3s, for covering injury or bye weeks, instead of expecting a few big guns to carry you successfully all the way through the season. They're also extremely useful as trade enhancers if needed.
Unfortunately, carrying these guys burns valuable roster spots, but I'm not talking about rostering seven RBs (or even six, although that is what I personally prefer.) I just think not carrying a few extra bodies (particularly at that injury-prone position) is playing with fire. However, one common related strategy I frequently disagree with is rostering handcuffs. Granted, if you have a bonafide guaranteed handcuff who previously has shown the ability to step successfully into a full workload (McGahee?), or to be worthwhile occasionally despite being in a clear supporting role (Michael Bush), it's probably worth it. But if there are 2-3 relatively unproven guys right behind your starter, don't bother. Too likely to be a hot hand or committee situation if your guy goes down. An RB3 from another team is much stronger insurance and thus a much better use of a roster spot.
Our object lesson this week is Cadillac Williams. The reasons he was available on so many waiver wires was 1) few knew for sure if he was the primary handcuff, as Jerious Norwood is also on the Rams' roster, and 2) he was pretty lousy as the feature back to start 2010 in Tampa Bay. His 140 all-purpose yards after Steven Jackson went down last week were as eye-opening as they come, but I'm not hopping on this train yet. Chances are none of the Eagles were psychologically prepared for him to be the same kind of force that Steven Jackson is, and you can bet the Giants will gameplan with him in mind, particularly with Amendola on the shelf as well. Two contrasting wrinkles though: the Giants' defense is not operating at full capacity, and Steven Jackson might actually play! Despite a beat-up opponent, I wouldn't want to pencil Cadillac in as my starter only to find out way too late that Jackson was going to be active. Even if you used a high waiver pick on him, I'd leave him on the bench unless you really have no other viable plug-in options. And even if Jackson is inactive, I don't see Williams marking a double-digit fantasy total.
Sneaky PlaysUnfortunately, carrying these guys burns valuable roster spots, but I'm not talking about rostering seven RBs (or even six, although that is what I personally prefer.) I just think not carrying a few extra bodies (particularly at that injury-prone position) is playing with fire. However, one common related strategy I frequently disagree with is rostering handcuffs. Granted, if you have a bonafide guaranteed handcuff who previously has shown the ability to step successfully into a full workload (McGahee?), or to be worthwhile occasionally despite being in a clear supporting role (Michael Bush), it's probably worth it. But if there are 2-3 relatively unproven guys right behind your starter, don't bother. Too likely to be a hot hand or committee situation if your guy goes down. An RB3 from another team is much stronger insurance and thus a much better use of a roster spot.
Our object lesson this week is Cadillac Williams. The reasons he was available on so many waiver wires was 1) few knew for sure if he was the primary handcuff, as Jerious Norwood is also on the Rams' roster, and 2) he was pretty lousy as the feature back to start 2010 in Tampa Bay. His 140 all-purpose yards after Steven Jackson went down last week were as eye-opening as they come, but I'm not hopping on this train yet. Chances are none of the Eagles were psychologically prepared for him to be the same kind of force that Steven Jackson is, and you can bet the Giants will gameplan with him in mind, particularly with Amendola on the shelf as well. Two contrasting wrinkles though: the Giants' defense is not operating at full capacity, and Steven Jackson might actually play! Despite a beat-up opponent, I wouldn't want to pencil Cadillac in as my starter only to find out way too late that Jackson was going to be active. Even if you used a high waiver pick on him, I'd leave him on the bench unless you really have no other viable plug-in options. And even if Jackson is inactive, I don't see Williams marking a double-digit fantasy total.
A little note on sneaky plays. I'm not recommending these guys over top options. Play your studs. Period. If you lose with your studs, you can still hold your head high. But if you lose cuz you gambled, that's on you. Sneaky plays are merely recommendations for guys you could consider playing over any 2/3 option that you're not so confident in coming into the week, and great alternatives for starter-level players you are having serious doubts about. (Read: Austin Collie)
Brandon Jacobs: 75+ yards plus one touchdown. A lot of buzz this week about the Giants getting away from the power game. I think they go back to that in front of the home crowd and Jacobs gets a good share of carries including at least one successful goalline carry.
Ladainian Tomlinson: Close to 100 all-purpose yards, 50/50 shot at a TD. In case you missed it, he led the Jets in receiving last week with 73 yards on six receptions. The guy can still bring it. With Holmes a question mark coming in, he may get even more looks, and the Jets are also planning to get more running plays in. If Greene is ineffective like he was last week, expect to see a little more LT.
Devery Henderson: 100+ yards plus 1 TD, just like last week. This one's not exactly sneaky considering the lack of healthy bodies in one of the league's best passing attacks, but it will still take a glaring doubt for you to consider playing him over one of your normal starters.
Nate Burleson: Just short of 100 yards, but good enough. I'm a little shy on predicting a TD, but one (or more) is definitely possible. The Chiefs made Ryan Fitzpatrick look like Joe Montana after losing Eric Berry last week and Matt Stafford is making his home debut. Burleson is just going to hang out and rack up stats.
Dustin Keller: 50+ yards and a touchdown. I see him garnering a lot of short receptions and continuing to be redeployed as a red zone target, especially if Holmes is not 100 percent. A good buy-low candidate as a strong backup tight end.
Revisiting a former man crush:
One of the hottest names this week is James Starks, as he seemed to grab hold of the starting gig in the second half of last week's Green Bay game. I think the jury's still out here and I wouldn't rush to christen him an RB2 yet as some pundits have. Ryan Grant may be less explosive, but he's definitely more proven. Subtract Grant's longest run (10 yards) and Starks' excellent 17-yard TD scamper, and we end up almost dead even on yards-per-carry. We don't know exactly what is going to happen when they get down to the goalline, but those darn Aaron Rodgers sneaks and John Kuhn vultures will put a cap on enhancing either back's value. My prediction is that Grant continues to start games, gets more of the precious goalline carries, and alternates with Kuhn in clock-killing mode. Starks will get just as many carries and snaps as he probably fits better into the design of this offense, and will definitely have more highlight plays. All-in-all, I think Starks is the better guy to own here, but I think it's very similar to the Tolbert-Mathews split in San Diego. All are somewhat risky plays but with significant upside in potent offenses.
Monday, September 12, 2011
Wiped Out
I'm thoroughly exhausted after yesterday. All I did was watch football all day, but the emotional roller coaster of finally getting going after a full offseason of lockout scares coinciding with the 10th anniversary of 9/11 reached a crescendo with the 1pm ET kickoffs. By 6, I was spent, and the fantasy mud puddle that was the Seattle-San Francisco game only made it worse.
Observations
The MASH unit would hardly be enough for the NFL after yesterday's carnage. St. Louis is already scouting No. 1 overall picks after losing its star running back and quarterback as well as its most vital wide receiver to various injuries. Steven Jackson was the only high draft pick among those, but the St. Louis offense as a whole looks virtually untouchable for the next little bit. (I'm not in favor of rushing out to add Cadillac Williams, for example. I just think he's going to be way too easy to defend.) San Diego got crushed too, but at least the Chargers can still look good short-handed. Kaeding was the No. 1 kicker picked in many drafts, but remember, he's a kicker. You'll survive. On the defensive side of things, the Chiefs lost safety Eric Berry and the Panthers lost linebacker Jon Beason. That makes those matchups all the more juicy for opposing fantasy starts - Stafford is a virtual lock to put up even more impressive numbers in his home opener against the Chiefs and Jermichael Finley will be even less coverable than usual at Carolina. Houston wideout Kevin Walter is gone for at least the first half of the season, but I'm still not ready to get excited about Jacoby Jones yet. Let's see him do something first (other than a punt return TD, that is!)
The Chicago Bears brought the Matty Ice hype train to a screeching halt, but he did manage to chuck up over 300 yards. His leading receiver? Tony Gonzalez. Didn't he retire? A big nugget from this game was when Michael Turner was alarmingly caught from behind on a breakaway run that he should have taken to the house, although he did show a great second effort in bouncing off the first tackle that should have brought him down. Owners should be prepared to panic if he starts splitting carries with someone faster, namely Jacquizz Rodgers. But as long as he continues to get the goalline carries on this offensive superpower, he should be fine, usually good for a TD a week.
Like most, I'm not going to anoint Cam Newton and Steve Smith yet. It was Arizona, after all. There is understandly plenty of excitement for what the future holds after that showing, but I'm not ready to start Newton over Roethlisberger, nor Smith over Manningham. I will, however, crown Ray Rice the next big thing. If he can do that vs. Pittsburgh, I shudder to think what he can do against Tennessee and St. Louis the next two weeks. He can probably be safely penciled in as a top 5 option every week.
What you take away from the San Diego game is a whole lot of confidence in their running back tandem, and in Philip Rivers. If Rivers has both RBs available to catch critical passes, he's going to light it up, as will they. Tolbert is a find, no doubt (he had nine receptions!) but don't expect three TDs every week. As I said, I do expect 10 fantasy points each week from him, and probably close to that from Mathews as well. It's the best running-back-by-committee in the league, the rare situation where you could probably play both guys in any given week and do just fine. Unfortunately, there's always the chance the Chargers go pass-heavy and feature Gates and Vincent Jackson instead. So just tread carefully. But Tolbert probably now qualifies as an every-week RB2, while Mathews is a high-end RB3 with upside.
Jahvid Best had two things I didn't expect: 1) a full game with no injury issues and 2) a respectable fantasy day despite no breakaway plays and no touchdowns. He had 25 touches, but his longest play was a 14-yard catch-and-run. His yards-per-carry was woeful at 3.4, but as long as he's healthy and featured in this up-and-coming offense, he should at least be a viable starting fantasy RB. Think of Cedric Benson, but with gargantuan upside. Unfortunately, with gargantuan injury risk as well. One misfortunate hit away from oblivion.
It may be safe to say that the train has left the station on Thomas Jones (2 carries for 3 yards). Could it have been Charlie Weis' fault that he was used as much as Jamaal Charles last year? That means my boy McCluster is looking good as expected. How good? Try leading the team in yards-from-scrimmage yesterday with 67, including a 23-yard run to go with five receptions. A rather ignominious start (fumbling the opening kickoff) was quickly forgotten. Unfortunately, the passing game as a whole looks to be a mess, so stacking the box may quickly become the best option for opposing defenses.
I don't care how much the Ravens schooled the Pittsburgh DST yesterday, I still love it as a fantasy playoff spectacular. Next week at home vs. Seattle looks pretty good too!
Sneaky Plays Scorecard
Kerry Collins
Prediction: 250 passing yards, 3 TD, 2 INT
Actual: He came up short of 200 yards and only had one TD pass. He didn't throw any picks, but lost two fumbles, usually the same penalty in most leagues. Garbage time allowed him to escape total fantasy disaster, a far cry from what I was expecting, all things considered.
Ben Tate and Derrick Ward
Prediction: 50+ all-purpose yards each, whether or not Foster plays (but not sure which will score)
Actual: Tate absolutely stole the show after Ward pulled himself from the game as a precaution, but even Ward had 39 yards and a TD.
Michael Bush:
Prediction: 75 yards and one TD plunge.
Actual: Only 30 yards on nine carries. He was in there some of the time at the goalline, but was more of a DMC breather-provider than anything else in this one.
Julio Jones
Prediction: 8+ receptions, 100+ yards, 1 long TD
Actual: Six receptions for 71 yards, not bad for a rookie's first NFL game in a hostile stadium. The whole Falcons' offense was unable to find the end zone, so chalk it up to one of those days for everyone. I'd take his line vs. his expectations over many of the other Falcons'.
Nate Burleson
Prediction: 75+ yards and one touchdown, mostly because four guys were covering Megatron on the play
Actual: Again, shorted on the TD, but not the yardage. He caught all five targets he received and added a pretty 20-yard end-around in the first quarter.
Aaron Hernandez:
Prediction: 60+ yards and 1 TD.
Actual: Try 100 yards and a TD. I also had Gronkowski dead on. Neither of these guys will be sneaky plays again anytime soon.
San Francisco DST
Prediction: 3 turnovers and one defensive touchdown while shutting down what Seattle euphemistically calls its "offense"
Actual: I was actually short on predicted value here. The 49ers had one pick and two fumble recoveries, and held Seattle to 219 yards of total offense. I picked them to have a defensive TD as well, but while they didn't pull that off, they had two return TDs.
Correct: Ben Tate, Derrick Ward, Aaron Hernandez, San Francisco DST
Serviceable line: Julio Jones and Nate Burleson
Back to the drawing board: Kerry Collins and Michael Bush
I'll take it!
Man Crush Update
I'm taking Stafford off the official list, because everyone is jumping on the bandwagon now. He's the real deal so let's just hope he lasts a full season. Tolbert might be off the list soon as well for the same reason, but for now I'll just wear my SE grin for a week. (Is it possible he read my column suggesting he would never get 20 fantasy points in one week?) Burleson, McCluster and Julio Jones all did fine and I'll continue to hype them, and I'm far from giving up on Brandon Jacobs.
Observations
The MASH unit would hardly be enough for the NFL after yesterday's carnage. St. Louis is already scouting No. 1 overall picks after losing its star running back and quarterback as well as its most vital wide receiver to various injuries. Steven Jackson was the only high draft pick among those, but the St. Louis offense as a whole looks virtually untouchable for the next little bit. (I'm not in favor of rushing out to add Cadillac Williams, for example. I just think he's going to be way too easy to defend.) San Diego got crushed too, but at least the Chargers can still look good short-handed. Kaeding was the No. 1 kicker picked in many drafts, but remember, he's a kicker. You'll survive. On the defensive side of things, the Chiefs lost safety Eric Berry and the Panthers lost linebacker Jon Beason. That makes those matchups all the more juicy for opposing fantasy starts - Stafford is a virtual lock to put up even more impressive numbers in his home opener against the Chiefs and Jermichael Finley will be even less coverable than usual at Carolina. Houston wideout Kevin Walter is gone for at least the first half of the season, but I'm still not ready to get excited about Jacoby Jones yet. Let's see him do something first (other than a punt return TD, that is!)
The Chicago Bears brought the Matty Ice hype train to a screeching halt, but he did manage to chuck up over 300 yards. His leading receiver? Tony Gonzalez. Didn't he retire? A big nugget from this game was when Michael Turner was alarmingly caught from behind on a breakaway run that he should have taken to the house, although he did show a great second effort in bouncing off the first tackle that should have brought him down. Owners should be prepared to panic if he starts splitting carries with someone faster, namely Jacquizz Rodgers. But as long as he continues to get the goalline carries on this offensive superpower, he should be fine, usually good for a TD a week.
Like most, I'm not going to anoint Cam Newton and Steve Smith yet. It was Arizona, after all. There is understandly plenty of excitement for what the future holds after that showing, but I'm not ready to start Newton over Roethlisberger, nor Smith over Manningham. I will, however, crown Ray Rice the next big thing. If he can do that vs. Pittsburgh, I shudder to think what he can do against Tennessee and St. Louis the next two weeks. He can probably be safely penciled in as a top 5 option every week.
What you take away from the San Diego game is a whole lot of confidence in their running back tandem, and in Philip Rivers. If Rivers has both RBs available to catch critical passes, he's going to light it up, as will they. Tolbert is a find, no doubt (he had nine receptions!) but don't expect three TDs every week. As I said, I do expect 10 fantasy points each week from him, and probably close to that from Mathews as well. It's the best running-back-by-committee in the league, the rare situation where you could probably play both guys in any given week and do just fine. Unfortunately, there's always the chance the Chargers go pass-heavy and feature Gates and Vincent Jackson instead. So just tread carefully. But Tolbert probably now qualifies as an every-week RB2, while Mathews is a high-end RB3 with upside.
Jahvid Best had two things I didn't expect: 1) a full game with no injury issues and 2) a respectable fantasy day despite no breakaway plays and no touchdowns. He had 25 touches, but his longest play was a 14-yard catch-and-run. His yards-per-carry was woeful at 3.4, but as long as he's healthy and featured in this up-and-coming offense, he should at least be a viable starting fantasy RB. Think of Cedric Benson, but with gargantuan upside. Unfortunately, with gargantuan injury risk as well. One misfortunate hit away from oblivion.
It may be safe to say that the train has left the station on Thomas Jones (2 carries for 3 yards). Could it have been Charlie Weis' fault that he was used as much as Jamaal Charles last year? That means my boy McCluster is looking good as expected. How good? Try leading the team in yards-from-scrimmage yesterday with 67, including a 23-yard run to go with five receptions. A rather ignominious start (fumbling the opening kickoff) was quickly forgotten. Unfortunately, the passing game as a whole looks to be a mess, so stacking the box may quickly become the best option for opposing defenses.
I don't care how much the Ravens schooled the Pittsburgh DST yesterday, I still love it as a fantasy playoff spectacular. Next week at home vs. Seattle looks pretty good too!
Sneaky Plays Scorecard
Kerry Collins
Prediction: 250 passing yards, 3 TD, 2 INT
Actual: He came up short of 200 yards and only had one TD pass. He didn't throw any picks, but lost two fumbles, usually the same penalty in most leagues. Garbage time allowed him to escape total fantasy disaster, a far cry from what I was expecting, all things considered.
Ben Tate and Derrick Ward
Prediction: 50+ all-purpose yards each, whether or not Foster plays (but not sure which will score)
Actual: Tate absolutely stole the show after Ward pulled himself from the game as a precaution, but even Ward had 39 yards and a TD.
Michael Bush:
Prediction: 75 yards and one TD plunge.
Actual: Only 30 yards on nine carries. He was in there some of the time at the goalline, but was more of a DMC breather-provider than anything else in this one.
Julio Jones
Prediction: 8+ receptions, 100+ yards, 1 long TD
Actual: Six receptions for 71 yards, not bad for a rookie's first NFL game in a hostile stadium. The whole Falcons' offense was unable to find the end zone, so chalk it up to one of those days for everyone. I'd take his line vs. his expectations over many of the other Falcons'.
Nate Burleson
Prediction: 75+ yards and one touchdown, mostly because four guys were covering Megatron on the play
Actual: Again, shorted on the TD, but not the yardage. He caught all five targets he received and added a pretty 20-yard end-around in the first quarter.
Aaron Hernandez:
Prediction: 60+ yards and 1 TD.
Actual: Try 100 yards and a TD. I also had Gronkowski dead on. Neither of these guys will be sneaky plays again anytime soon.
San Francisco DST
Prediction: 3 turnovers and one defensive touchdown while shutting down what Seattle euphemistically calls its "offense"
Actual: I was actually short on predicted value here. The 49ers had one pick and two fumble recoveries, and held Seattle to 219 yards of total offense. I picked them to have a defensive TD as well, but while they didn't pull that off, they had two return TDs.
Correct: Ben Tate, Derrick Ward, Aaron Hernandez, San Francisco DST
Serviceable line: Julio Jones and Nate Burleson
Back to the drawing board: Kerry Collins and Michael Bush
I'll take it!
Man Crush Update
I'm taking Stafford off the official list, because everyone is jumping on the bandwagon now. He's the real deal so let's just hope he lasts a full season. Tolbert might be off the list soon as well for the same reason, but for now I'll just wear my SE grin for a week. (Is it possible he read my column suggesting he would never get 20 fantasy points in one week?) Burleson, McCluster and Julio Jones all did fine and I'll continue to hype them, and I'm far from giving up on Brandon Jacobs.
Saturday, September 10, 2011
Fantasy ManCrush, Episode I
Last year, I was all about James Starks, Chris Ivory, Danny Woodhead and basically all the Bucs not named Earnest Graham. I'll be updating my mancrush list on a weekly basis, but we need a starting point for 2011. These are the guys that for whatever reason I'm absolutely fixated on to start the season (not counting the studs we know will be studs):
Matt Stafford. Again, Aaron Rodgers-esque breakout coming. It's going to be fun to watch. Nate Burleson and Titus Young also qualify for this list. The Lions are actually my Buccaneers for this season, even though Jahvid Best scares the bejesus out of me for a variety of good and bad reasons.
Mike Tolbert. Barring injury, I just can't fathom a scenario whereby Tolbert fails to score 10 fantasy points in any given game. Probably never gonna get to 20, but I can live with 10 every week. That's Steven Jackson territory.
Brandon Jacobs. Tolbert Junior (errrr, Senior.) Enough touches to do consistent damage every week, and for a much lower price than his tandem partner Bradshaw.
Julio Jones. Yes, it is possible that he outproduces Roddy White in his rookie year. Unlikely, yes, but possible. I think it will at least be close when all is said and done, and I think both will finish in the top 15. Think Miles Austin and Dez Bryant.
Jimmy Graham. After Gates and Finley, there's no one I think will be more explosive at the position this year. I'm even starting to look at him ahead of Finley.
Dexter McCluster. The chuckles I've heard on this one suggest I could just have easily have said "Donald Brown" I don't know why, I just think the guy's gonna be a gamer this year, and I love his dual position eligibility a la Woodhead. I basically envision him as exactly what Woodhead was last year, producing as a WR3 with the added benefit of being used as an RB in an emergency. This is the one guy on my list that has any chance of being available on your waiver wire, and it's actually very likely that he is. Go get him, and send me a Thank You card later. (On second thought, it may take him til midseason to make a difference, just like Woodhead, so perhaps you can wait on that......)
On Manning
I can't recall an injury that has more dramatically affected more player values than this one. It's like the Pearl Harbor, the JFK assassination or the 9/11 of fantasy football.* (Where were you when you heard that Manning could be out for the year?) Wayne, Collie and Garcon have all been postulated to be demoted at least 1-2 full tiers in the fantasy ranks. They're talking about going run-heavy, which would be suicide for the way this team is built. Might as well start talking to Andrew Luck now about his rookie contract. No, I think they stay the course for the most part. Collins is no Manning, for sure, but he can get the job done. Wayne is an elite receiver, Collie is a gamer as evidenced by last season, and Garcon is steady if not spectacular. And any schmo QB would love an inside weapon like Clark. If not for the pressure of filling a massive void, Collins would be entering a QB's dream scenario.
And what about that run game that they may turn to? Though no big play threat, Joseph Addai is about as good as they come in terms of patience, humility, pass blocking and outlet availability, so total number of goalline touches is about the only thing he takes a hit on, simply because they won't be down there as much. He actually may benefit in terms of number of touches but does have a TD vulture looking over his shoulder in Delone Carter, who probably isn't rostered in most leagues anyway and would need to show quite an immediate and explosive breakout ability to have fantasy relevance this year. He's the guy that would have to do it if they're going to go run, and I just don't see it, though there have been occasional comparisons to MJD. Donald Brown is still there, but he's still lousy. Ditto Anthony Gonzalez in the passing game, but you just never know. A whole lot of wildcards sometimes equals a royal flush.
* I'm torn about having NFL Opening Day coincide with the 10th anniversary of 9/11. A big part of me thinks it is truly fitting, stick it to the terrorists by continuing to do what we love in spite of their actions. We will not be terrorized. We will not sacrifice our way of life out of fear. At the same time, I think the date should be solemnized, particularly the 10th anniversary of the tragedy. I honestly believe September 11 should be made an annual national holiday of remembrance. And you could put a positive spin on it by calling it Patriots Day or National Heroes Day or the like, while still making a clear acknowledgement of the victims. I think playing football is among the most American things you could possibly do, so I think it's a great idea to go on with the games. It's just a little tougher to get into the spirit of it this year on the benchmark anniversary. I will be passionately monitoring my fantasy teams on Sunday, but not without a much heavier heart than usual. And it has nothing to do with having Peyton Manning on one of my teams.
Sneaky plays of the week
You're in trouble if you're already looking for a plug-and-play, but here's this week's top options for guys that were not likely drafted as starters, and my crazy projections for each:
Kerry Collins: 250 passing yards, 3 TD, 2 INT. Seriously. This will be a high-scoring game and his receiving crew is among the best in the league.Ben Tate and Derrick Ward: 50+ all-purpose yards each, whether or not Foster plays (but not sure which will score)
Michael Bush: 75 yards and one TD plunge. Double that if DMC goes down before halftime as expected.
Julio Jones: 8+ receptions, 100+ yards, 1 long TD. Welcome to the NFL!
Nate Burleson: 75+ yards and one touchdown, mostly because four guys were covering Megatron on the play.
Aaron Hernandez: 60+ yards and 1 TD. I think Gronkowski has a good chance to get one as well, but fewer receptions and yardage.
San Francisco DST: 3 turnovers and one defensive touchdown while shutting down what Seattle euphemistically calls its "offense"
There's eight options listed here. If I get two right, I'm doing OK. Anything over three and I'm a flippin' genius!
Suicide/Survivor
Like every year, week 1 is going to be tough, but this year it seems even tougher. And that should ensure you lose half the pool after the first week, my favorite aspect of these types of pools. I've been doing the same one for about five years, and actually won the whole thing once. Four out of five times, I've gone deep into the season, following a few simple guidelines for as long as I possibly can:
1) Always pick a home team. Home teams in the NFL win 70 percent of the time. Huge statistical advantage.
2) Avoid underdogs (for obvious reasons) and close spreads (3 points or less). The oddsmakers have a pretty good idea what one team's chances are of beating another, so it's prudent to avoid those matches in which they don't waver far from even.
3) Avoid national telecasts and upper-end division rivalries. Generally, the intensity gets ramped up in these games and weird things happen to both teams. Unfortunately, that's true of every game in Week One, but obviously you have to pick someone.
4) Avoid betting on a weak team, especially early in the season, simply because you think their opponent is weaker and you want to save the better teams for later. It's not going to help you to have New England left in Week 10 if you get eliminated in Week 2. Go with the surer things and worry about your more critical choices later. In Week 2, you have no idea what any team is really going to be worth come Week 10.
5) Avoid betting for or against Oakland. Probably the least predictable team in the NFL.
Following those rules, I'm left ONLY with Kansas City (hosting Buffalo) and San Diego (hosting Minnesota) for Week One. Special mention goes to Houston (hosting Indy) which the oddsmakers have heavily favored because Manning is out. I'm not so sure the Texans take this one. It IS an intense rivalry, and you can bet the entire Indy squad will be motivated to prove they can succeed without their star. Furthermore, Foster may sit, or at least be limited. I'm not saying the Colts WILL win, I'm just saying there's a good enough chance they MIGHT win that I don't want to bet against it.
Either KC or San Diego works this week, but I'm slightly more confident that San Diego will win, so I'm going with them. And by the way, the worst bet this week, violating all of my rules, would be Oakland. But I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Raiders won.
Matt Stafford. Again, Aaron Rodgers-esque breakout coming. It's going to be fun to watch. Nate Burleson and Titus Young also qualify for this list. The Lions are actually my Buccaneers for this season, even though Jahvid Best scares the bejesus out of me for a variety of good and bad reasons.
Mike Tolbert. Barring injury, I just can't fathom a scenario whereby Tolbert fails to score 10 fantasy points in any given game. Probably never gonna get to 20, but I can live with 10 every week. That's Steven Jackson territory.
Brandon Jacobs. Tolbert Junior (errrr, Senior.) Enough touches to do consistent damage every week, and for a much lower price than his tandem partner Bradshaw.
Julio Jones. Yes, it is possible that he outproduces Roddy White in his rookie year. Unlikely, yes, but possible. I think it will at least be close when all is said and done, and I think both will finish in the top 15. Think Miles Austin and Dez Bryant.
Jimmy Graham. After Gates and Finley, there's no one I think will be more explosive at the position this year. I'm even starting to look at him ahead of Finley.
Dexter McCluster. The chuckles I've heard on this one suggest I could just have easily have said "Donald Brown" I don't know why, I just think the guy's gonna be a gamer this year, and I love his dual position eligibility a la Woodhead. I basically envision him as exactly what Woodhead was last year, producing as a WR3 with the added benefit of being used as an RB in an emergency. This is the one guy on my list that has any chance of being available on your waiver wire, and it's actually very likely that he is. Go get him, and send me a Thank You card later. (On second thought, it may take him til midseason to make a difference, just like Woodhead, so perhaps you can wait on that......)
On Manning
I can't recall an injury that has more dramatically affected more player values than this one. It's like the Pearl Harbor, the JFK assassination or the 9/11 of fantasy football.* (Where were you when you heard that Manning could be out for the year?) Wayne, Collie and Garcon have all been postulated to be demoted at least 1-2 full tiers in the fantasy ranks. They're talking about going run-heavy, which would be suicide for the way this team is built. Might as well start talking to Andrew Luck now about his rookie contract. No, I think they stay the course for the most part. Collins is no Manning, for sure, but he can get the job done. Wayne is an elite receiver, Collie is a gamer as evidenced by last season, and Garcon is steady if not spectacular. And any schmo QB would love an inside weapon like Clark. If not for the pressure of filling a massive void, Collins would be entering a QB's dream scenario.
And what about that run game that they may turn to? Though no big play threat, Joseph Addai is about as good as they come in terms of patience, humility, pass blocking and outlet availability, so total number of goalline touches is about the only thing he takes a hit on, simply because they won't be down there as much. He actually may benefit in terms of number of touches but does have a TD vulture looking over his shoulder in Delone Carter, who probably isn't rostered in most leagues anyway and would need to show quite an immediate and explosive breakout ability to have fantasy relevance this year. He's the guy that would have to do it if they're going to go run, and I just don't see it, though there have been occasional comparisons to MJD. Donald Brown is still there, but he's still lousy. Ditto Anthony Gonzalez in the passing game, but you just never know. A whole lot of wildcards sometimes equals a royal flush.
* I'm torn about having NFL Opening Day coincide with the 10th anniversary of 9/11. A big part of me thinks it is truly fitting, stick it to the terrorists by continuing to do what we love in spite of their actions. We will not be terrorized. We will not sacrifice our way of life out of fear. At the same time, I think the date should be solemnized, particularly the 10th anniversary of the tragedy. I honestly believe September 11 should be made an annual national holiday of remembrance. And you could put a positive spin on it by calling it Patriots Day or National Heroes Day or the like, while still making a clear acknowledgement of the victims. I think playing football is among the most American things you could possibly do, so I think it's a great idea to go on with the games. It's just a little tougher to get into the spirit of it this year on the benchmark anniversary. I will be passionately monitoring my fantasy teams on Sunday, but not without a much heavier heart than usual. And it has nothing to do with having Peyton Manning on one of my teams.
Sneaky plays of the week
You're in trouble if you're already looking for a plug-and-play, but here's this week's top options for guys that were not likely drafted as starters, and my crazy projections for each:
Kerry Collins: 250 passing yards, 3 TD, 2 INT. Seriously. This will be a high-scoring game and his receiving crew is among the best in the league.Ben Tate and Derrick Ward: 50+ all-purpose yards each, whether or not Foster plays (but not sure which will score)
Michael Bush: 75 yards and one TD plunge. Double that if DMC goes down before halftime as expected.
Julio Jones: 8+ receptions, 100+ yards, 1 long TD. Welcome to the NFL!
Nate Burleson: 75+ yards and one touchdown, mostly because four guys were covering Megatron on the play.
Aaron Hernandez: 60+ yards and 1 TD. I think Gronkowski has a good chance to get one as well, but fewer receptions and yardage.
San Francisco DST: 3 turnovers and one defensive touchdown while shutting down what Seattle euphemistically calls its "offense"
There's eight options listed here. If I get two right, I'm doing OK. Anything over three and I'm a flippin' genius!
Suicide/Survivor
Like every year, week 1 is going to be tough, but this year it seems even tougher. And that should ensure you lose half the pool after the first week, my favorite aspect of these types of pools. I've been doing the same one for about five years, and actually won the whole thing once. Four out of five times, I've gone deep into the season, following a few simple guidelines for as long as I possibly can:
1) Always pick a home team. Home teams in the NFL win 70 percent of the time. Huge statistical advantage.
2) Avoid underdogs (for obvious reasons) and close spreads (3 points or less). The oddsmakers have a pretty good idea what one team's chances are of beating another, so it's prudent to avoid those matches in which they don't waver far from even.
3) Avoid national telecasts and upper-end division rivalries. Generally, the intensity gets ramped up in these games and weird things happen to both teams. Unfortunately, that's true of every game in Week One, but obviously you have to pick someone.
4) Avoid betting on a weak team, especially early in the season, simply because you think their opponent is weaker and you want to save the better teams for later. It's not going to help you to have New England left in Week 10 if you get eliminated in Week 2. Go with the surer things and worry about your more critical choices later. In Week 2, you have no idea what any team is really going to be worth come Week 10.
5) Avoid betting for or against Oakland. Probably the least predictable team in the NFL.
Following those rules, I'm left ONLY with Kansas City (hosting Buffalo) and San Diego (hosting Minnesota) for Week One. Special mention goes to Houston (hosting Indy) which the oddsmakers have heavily favored because Manning is out. I'm not so sure the Texans take this one. It IS an intense rivalry, and you can bet the entire Indy squad will be motivated to prove they can succeed without their star. Furthermore, Foster may sit, or at least be limited. I'm not saying the Colts WILL win, I'm just saying there's a good enough chance they MIGHT win that I don't want to bet against it.
Either KC or San Diego works this week, but I'm slightly more confident that San Diego will win, so I'm going with them. And by the way, the worst bet this week, violating all of my rules, would be Oakland. But I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Raiders won.
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
The All-Everything Teams
Welcome to the 2011 Fantasy Football Season. Please take a moment to thank whatever deity inspires you that the NFL owners and players figured things out. I shudder to think where we fantasy football fans would end up without our fix. I actually conceptualized a Canadian Football fantasy league out of premature desperation.
Thankfully, enacting such an extreme measure proved unnecessary. The Peyton Manning injury alone, and its subsequent fantasy football ramifications, are enough to keep me going nonstop for about a week.
As usual, I'll be posting on Saturday mornings throughout the season, giving the junkies a little last thing to absorb in the down time between Friday's injury reports and the actual games. In general, I'll aim to share periphery observations, sneaky plays and longer-term fliers instead of just regurgitating the key fantasy news that is available on hundreds of other sites.
And for my first entry of 2011, I'll skip all the hard news as usual and just give you some hard (and heartily rationalized) predictions. At the end of the season, I can look back and laugh, cry, or gloat.
The All Mid-Round Team
These are the guys that will not drafted among the tops at their position, but represent the best chance to produce as such in 2011 without carrying the hefty price tag. Feel great about getting them in Rounds 4-6.
QB: Matt Ryan
RBs: Felix Jones and Beanie Wells
WRs: Julio Jones, Mario Manningham and Kenny Britt
TE: Jimmy Graham
Best mid-round value: Graham. The guy is a baller. He's huge, and Brees loves him. Even with the ball spread around, he's the most likely to get critical looks, and the most likely to have a giant game. Runner-up: Felix Jones.
The All Reserve Team
These are guys likely to be drafted as reserves that could probably be played safely in any week this season. In my mind, the best just-outside-the-starters to own in terms of insurance and plug-and-play vs. most opponents. Superior depth guys.
QB: Eli Manning
RBs: Mike Tolbert and Brandon Jacobs
WRs: Emmanuel Sanders, Lance Moore and Lee Evans
TE: Brandon Pettigrew
Best reserve value: Tolbert. Passing downs AND goalline carries on that team? No doubt he ends up with more fantasy points than Mathews this year. Decent chance to be a kind of lite version of Peyton Hillis this year. Runner-up: Jacobs.
The All Under-the-Radar Team
I can't believe I'm not hearing more buzz about these guys as viable fantasy plays. Not necessarily as starters from Day One, but depth guys with pretty good potential to fill a gap if needed. Don't forget about them.
QB: Kerry Collins
RBs: Willis McGahee and Dexter McCluster
WRs: Nate Burleson, Harry Douglas and Antonio Brown
TE: Lance Kendricks
Best forgotten value: Burleson. The prime beneficiary if Stafford and Megatron remain healthy. He's going to be open enough for Stafford to find him. A lot.
Runner-up: Collins, who had four real strong fantasy games to close out last season despite being on a team with basically one legitimate receiving threat. He now has at least five. Call me crazy, but I like his chances. Granted, he's more likely to look like Eli than Peyton, but I'd much rather play him than a guy like Cutler. And if Manning is indeed out for a while, his chemistry with the receivers and familiarity with the offense only grows. He knows what he's doing and represents a perfect stopgap solution for the Colts and for fantasy owners.
The All Watch List Team
These guys will probably go undrafted in most leagues, but mark my words, they'll be in someone's active lineup at some point in every league before the season is through.
QB: Blaine Gabbert
RBs: Delone Carter and Montario Hardesty
WRs: Arrelious Benn, Titus Young and Denarius Moore
TE: Jared Cook
Best watch list value: Cook. Mostly due to a lack of options, Cook has been and will again be lined up as a wideout. He's big and fast and has good hands and will probably lead the Titans in receptions. Runner-up: Benn.
The All Dynasty Team
These guys are probably not viable options for this year, but if you have available dynasty stashes for 2012 and beyond, go for it.
QB: Cam Newton
RBs: Taiwan Jones and Jacquizz Rodgers
WRs: Demariyus Thomas, Randall Cobb and Vincent Brown
TE: Evan Moore.
Best dynasty value: Vincent Brown. Last year was a great example of what virtually anyone can do in a pass-heavy offense. Possibly Rivers' No. 2 target in 2012. Runner-up: Newton.
The All Overdraft Team
These guys are my predictions for biggest fantasy busts in 2011 based on their average draft position. Let someone else take their chances.
QB: Matt Schaub
RBs: Jahvid Best and Knowshon Moreno
WRs: Brandon Marshall, Brandon Lloyd and Chad Ochocinco
TE: Tony Gonzalez.
Worst average draft position value: Ochocinco. Too many offensive options in New England, so he'll have to get used to being just another cog, and perhaps even primarily a decoy. I think it smells a lot like Randy Moss in 2010.
Runner-up: Best, the rare beast whose fate could be anywhere from finishing as the No. 1 fantasy RB to suffering a season-ending injury in Week One. The 3.2 yards per carry last year and the chances of him getting pulled at the goalline in order to protect him make him absolutely not worth the risk. Difficult to determine if his upside or his downside is greater, so he's just as likely to lose a week for you as to win it. Why bother?
My predictions for the top 5 fantasy producers at each position at season's end (in order):
QB: Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Vick, Ryan (longshot sneak-in: Stafford)
RB: AP, Charles, Rice, McFadden, Foster (longshot sneak-in: Steven Jackson)
WR: Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, Mike Wallace (longshot sneak-in: Dez Bryant)
TE: Gates, Graham, Finley, Witten, Daniels (longshot sneak-in: Kendricks)
Don't laugh at the Ryan and Stafford mentions. These two have Aaron-Rodgers-breakout written all over them.
Early Tips and Observations, a small sampling of the kinds of blog entries to expect:
1. Did you happen to notice Pittsburgh's fantasy playoff schedule? In weeks 13-17, they get Cincinnati and St. Louis at home, at San Francisco, and Cleveland twice. Sure, you'll start the usual offensive guys with a little extra confidence, but the Steelers DST alone might win you the title there. I don't care if James Harrison is only 70-80 percent right now, he should be fine in December. And St. Louis as an upstart threat? Sure, but no dome team is going to excel in Pittsburgh at that time of year. The highest rated DST in most weeks gets a massive boost at the season's most critical spot. Easily worth an early eighth round pick and I'd even reach for them late in the seventh if there wasn't another clear buy there. If you've already drafted and missed 'em, buy relatively low while you still can. This is set up to be the greatest stretch of defensive TDs in history.
2. Todd Haley strikes again. The mastermind behind giving Thomas Jones more touches than Jamaal Charles last year plays his starters deep into meaningless preseason game No. 4, and subsequently loses his tight end (and almost his quarterback.) I have no idea what he'll do with the backfield this year, but I'm on board with everyone else that Charles is due for a monster season. I'm actually so down on Jones (probably losing at least some goalline touches to McClain) that I'm going rapidly up on Dexter McCluster. I think the loss of Moeaki only helps McCluster as another random receiving threat to plug in on the kinds of passing plays that would have suited Moeaki before. He's a wildcard, and despite suggestions to the contrary, I think he takes plenty of snaps as a wideout this year. He just got RB eligibility to go with his WR eligibility in ESPN leagues, making him a perfect possibility to be this year's Danny Woodhead, easily as good as most WR3s and a fine bye week play at RB, taking up only one roster spot instead of two. Love it! And if Charles happens to go down......
3. Apparently I wasn't the only one that connected the dots when Detroit picked up Keiland Williams off waivers from Washington. Latest report has the hulking fullback picking up a lot of the plays originally designed for Mike Leshoure, including the goalline plunges. Can't complain about that role in that offense. Worth a flier at the start of the season, although he may or may not excel quickly in that opportunity.
Good luck to everyone this season, and I hope to see you guys here every Saturday!
Thankfully, enacting such an extreme measure proved unnecessary. The Peyton Manning injury alone, and its subsequent fantasy football ramifications, are enough to keep me going nonstop for about a week.
As usual, I'll be posting on Saturday mornings throughout the season, giving the junkies a little last thing to absorb in the down time between Friday's injury reports and the actual games. In general, I'll aim to share periphery observations, sneaky plays and longer-term fliers instead of just regurgitating the key fantasy news that is available on hundreds of other sites.
And for my first entry of 2011, I'll skip all the hard news as usual and just give you some hard (and heartily rationalized) predictions. At the end of the season, I can look back and laugh, cry, or gloat.
The All Mid-Round Team
These are the guys that will not drafted among the tops at their position, but represent the best chance to produce as such in 2011 without carrying the hefty price tag. Feel great about getting them in Rounds 4-6.
QB: Matt Ryan
RBs: Felix Jones and Beanie Wells
WRs: Julio Jones, Mario Manningham and Kenny Britt
TE: Jimmy Graham
Best mid-round value: Graham. The guy is a baller. He's huge, and Brees loves him. Even with the ball spread around, he's the most likely to get critical looks, and the most likely to have a giant game. Runner-up: Felix Jones.
The All Reserve Team
These are guys likely to be drafted as reserves that could probably be played safely in any week this season. In my mind, the best just-outside-the-starters to own in terms of insurance and plug-and-play vs. most opponents. Superior depth guys.
QB: Eli Manning
RBs: Mike Tolbert and Brandon Jacobs
WRs: Emmanuel Sanders, Lance Moore and Lee Evans
TE: Brandon Pettigrew
Best reserve value: Tolbert. Passing downs AND goalline carries on that team? No doubt he ends up with more fantasy points than Mathews this year. Decent chance to be a kind of lite version of Peyton Hillis this year. Runner-up: Jacobs.
The All Under-the-Radar Team
I can't believe I'm not hearing more buzz about these guys as viable fantasy plays. Not necessarily as starters from Day One, but depth guys with pretty good potential to fill a gap if needed. Don't forget about them.
QB: Kerry Collins
RBs: Willis McGahee and Dexter McCluster
WRs: Nate Burleson, Harry Douglas and Antonio Brown
TE: Lance Kendricks
Best forgotten value: Burleson. The prime beneficiary if Stafford and Megatron remain healthy. He's going to be open enough for Stafford to find him. A lot.
Runner-up: Collins, who had four real strong fantasy games to close out last season despite being on a team with basically one legitimate receiving threat. He now has at least five. Call me crazy, but I like his chances. Granted, he's more likely to look like Eli than Peyton, but I'd much rather play him than a guy like Cutler. And if Manning is indeed out for a while, his chemistry with the receivers and familiarity with the offense only grows. He knows what he's doing and represents a perfect stopgap solution for the Colts and for fantasy owners.
The All Watch List Team
These guys will probably go undrafted in most leagues, but mark my words, they'll be in someone's active lineup at some point in every league before the season is through.
QB: Blaine Gabbert
RBs: Delone Carter and Montario Hardesty
WRs: Arrelious Benn, Titus Young and Denarius Moore
TE: Jared Cook
Best watch list value: Cook. Mostly due to a lack of options, Cook has been and will again be lined up as a wideout. He's big and fast and has good hands and will probably lead the Titans in receptions. Runner-up: Benn.
The All Dynasty Team
These guys are probably not viable options for this year, but if you have available dynasty stashes for 2012 and beyond, go for it.
QB: Cam Newton
RBs: Taiwan Jones and Jacquizz Rodgers
WRs: Demariyus Thomas, Randall Cobb and Vincent Brown
TE: Evan Moore.
Best dynasty value: Vincent Brown. Last year was a great example of what virtually anyone can do in a pass-heavy offense. Possibly Rivers' No. 2 target in 2012. Runner-up: Newton.
The All Overdraft Team
These guys are my predictions for biggest fantasy busts in 2011 based on their average draft position. Let someone else take their chances.
QB: Matt Schaub
RBs: Jahvid Best and Knowshon Moreno
WRs: Brandon Marshall, Brandon Lloyd and Chad Ochocinco
TE: Tony Gonzalez.
Worst average draft position value: Ochocinco. Too many offensive options in New England, so he'll have to get used to being just another cog, and perhaps even primarily a decoy. I think it smells a lot like Randy Moss in 2010.
Runner-up: Best, the rare beast whose fate could be anywhere from finishing as the No. 1 fantasy RB to suffering a season-ending injury in Week One. The 3.2 yards per carry last year and the chances of him getting pulled at the goalline in order to protect him make him absolutely not worth the risk. Difficult to determine if his upside or his downside is greater, so he's just as likely to lose a week for you as to win it. Why bother?
My predictions for the top 5 fantasy producers at each position at season's end (in order):
QB: Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Vick, Ryan (longshot sneak-in: Stafford)
RB: AP, Charles, Rice, McFadden, Foster (longshot sneak-in: Steven Jackson)
WR: Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, Mike Wallace (longshot sneak-in: Dez Bryant)
TE: Gates, Graham, Finley, Witten, Daniels (longshot sneak-in: Kendricks)
Don't laugh at the Ryan and Stafford mentions. These two have Aaron-Rodgers-breakout written all over them.
Early Tips and Observations, a small sampling of the kinds of blog entries to expect:
1. Did you happen to notice Pittsburgh's fantasy playoff schedule? In weeks 13-17, they get Cincinnati and St. Louis at home, at San Francisco, and Cleveland twice. Sure, you'll start the usual offensive guys with a little extra confidence, but the Steelers DST alone might win you the title there. I don't care if James Harrison is only 70-80 percent right now, he should be fine in December. And St. Louis as an upstart threat? Sure, but no dome team is going to excel in Pittsburgh at that time of year. The highest rated DST in most weeks gets a massive boost at the season's most critical spot. Easily worth an early eighth round pick and I'd even reach for them late in the seventh if there wasn't another clear buy there. If you've already drafted and missed 'em, buy relatively low while you still can. This is set up to be the greatest stretch of defensive TDs in history.
2. Todd Haley strikes again. The mastermind behind giving Thomas Jones more touches than Jamaal Charles last year plays his starters deep into meaningless preseason game No. 4, and subsequently loses his tight end (and almost his quarterback.) I have no idea what he'll do with the backfield this year, but I'm on board with everyone else that Charles is due for a monster season. I'm actually so down on Jones (probably losing at least some goalline touches to McClain) that I'm going rapidly up on Dexter McCluster. I think the loss of Moeaki only helps McCluster as another random receiving threat to plug in on the kinds of passing plays that would have suited Moeaki before. He's a wildcard, and despite suggestions to the contrary, I think he takes plenty of snaps as a wideout this year. He just got RB eligibility to go with his WR eligibility in ESPN leagues, making him a perfect possibility to be this year's Danny Woodhead, easily as good as most WR3s and a fine bye week play at RB, taking up only one roster spot instead of two. Love it! And if Charles happens to go down......
3. Apparently I wasn't the only one that connected the dots when Detroit picked up Keiland Williams off waivers from Washington. Latest report has the hulking fullback picking up a lot of the plays originally designed for Mike Leshoure, including the goalline plunges. Can't complain about that role in that offense. Worth a flier at the start of the season, although he may or may not excel quickly in that opportunity.
Good luck to everyone this season, and I hope to see you guys here every Saturday!
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