With many fantasy trade deadlines looming in the
next couple of weeks, it's a critical time for you to take very rapid specific
inventory of your team - who you have and who you may need through the end of
your fantasy playoffs to cover the potential for injury or poor matchups.
That is, IF you are headed to the playoffs. If not, thanks for
playing. Good luck next year. Now spoil away. Play to the whistle. Don't close
shop or mail it in simply because you're out. Continue to make competitive
claims and set your best roster each week at least until your regular season
ends. Otherwise, you're compromising the integrity of the competition and
potentially annoying other owners who are expecting to compete to the end. Your
lack of effort late in the season could hand a win to someone who doesn't deserve
it at the expense of a more deserving owner. Put yourself in the gypped owner's
shoes and do him or her the courtesy as you would like to have done for you.
And don't forget about the fun of it. Go get (and play) the more marginal guys
you've always wanted. Don't make stupid choices, but going with personal
affection over logic as a tiebreaker between two players is OK at this point.
And it's more fun.
If you ARE possibly headed to the playoffs, it's time to break out
your abacus. This will help you calculate what needs to happen between now and
then to make your dream trip a reality, and to figure out where your future
pitfalls may lie. Depth at the middle levels of positions is critical here, so
you can play to take advantage of the best matchups and avoid the worst. That's
true throughout the season, but you should actually now go through and map out
what you intend to do with your lineup week-to-week for the rest of the season.
You may have two awful WR matchups in week 15 that you didn't see before, so
maybe adding another WR that has a highly favorable matchup then would be a
good insurance plan for one of those guys.
The sneakiest play here is at DST. Everyone
knows DST value is frequently more determined by the opponent than the DST
itself, so grab your playoff DSTs at your earliest possible convenience before
other owners start thinking about it. The most generous opponents this year
have been Kansas City (at CLE, at OAK, IND in Weeks 14-16), Jacksonville (NYJ,
at MIA, NE), Arizona (at SEA, DET, CHI) and the Jets (at JAC, at TEN, SD.)
Philadelphia is also in there (at TB, CIN, WAS), but the Eagles have a lot of
weapons that can potentially do offensive damage that the previously mentioned
squads do not, so they present a larger risk. Strong weekly DSTs like Chicago
and Seattle may not be available in your league, and some of the others (most
specifically Oakland) have been way too inconsistent or susceptible to trust in
a playoff setting, but that still leaves you with plenty of good choices for the
most critical weeks.
Plug-and-Play!
-My top recommendation for this week would have been Daniel Thomas, so I'm glad
he's already played and I don't have as much egg on my face. Although Thomas
did get just as many snaps and touches as Reggie Bush, the Buffalo defense was
way stingier than they have been all season, and the game was not nearly as
high-scoring as I expected. Thomas remains a great emergency hold for the
fantasy playoffs.
-Danny Woodhead. He's back to being "vintage" Woodhead, as a very productive
receiver out of the backfield. His matchup this week at home against
Indianapolis should provide a favorable opportunity to continue that trend.
-Carson Palmer. His recent strong numbers probably disqualify him as a random
plug-and-play, but don't be shy at all if he's available and you need a solid
QB this week. The Saints are currently in the live-by-the-sword,
die-by-the-sword mode of scoring and giving up points at will, so any offensive
opponent (particulaly a QB) is a potential fantasy superstar. The same can be
said for Andrew Luck at New England this week. Outside of the clear studs,
those two are at least as good as any other option this week.
Saturday, November 17, 2012
Saturday, November 10, 2012
Your Guess is as Good as Mine
In one of the more intriguing
dilemmas of the 2012 fantasy football season, owners were (and may still be)
forced to choose between Marcel Reece and Taiwan Jones as the best option in
the Raiders backfield, for this week and beyond.
The potential here for either back is almost off the charts. The guys previously in front of them, Darren McFadden and Mike Goodsen, are both out with high ankle sprains. A notoriously lingering injury for two running backs that are both notorious for letting injuries linger represents a golden opportunity for Reece and/or Jones. Add in a cupcake rush defense schedule, starting with the newly-soft Ravens and the league-worst Saints over the next two weeks, and there is virtually no compelling reason to hold off on buying both guys. Granted, even with McFadden, the Raiders had one of the worst rushing offenses in the league, but some of that has to be attributed to McFadden's seeming inability to excel in the zone blocking scheme, which has proven the superior option throughout the league. Perhaps Reece or Jones can do more with it than McFadden could.
Which of these guys is going to be more valuable is the real question, and there are compelling reasons for both.
By most accounts, Reece is the guy. He's a big strong fullback (6'1, 255) so he should have no trouble pushing the pile and getting an extra yard or two between the tackles, and will almost certainly be the best option near the goalline. He is trusted in pass protection, and the Raiders will be throwing a lot, so he will simply be on the field a lot more than Jones. And the bonus for this under-the-radar asset: he catches passes as well as anyone else on the roster, so not only will he be in there a lot, he will always be available as a dump-off outlet for Carson Palmer. Long forgotten is that Reece was a wideout in college at Washington, and consistently ran a 40-yard dash in the 4.40s. This is a multi-tool player.
Working against Reece is his lack of experience as a ball carrier, dating back to college. For whatever reason, he has just never been given much of a look in that role, which is somewhat strange given he has a 4.9 YPC average on 48 carries as a pro. And that's not because he had a few breakaway runs - his career long is 31 yards. But only twice in his career has he carried the ball more than three times in one game, once in a blowout win vs. Denver in 2010, and once in a relief role to workhorse Michael Bush late last season against Minnesota when Darren McFadden was on the shelf. In those two games combined, he had 13 carries for 84 yards, and was held to under four yards on only four of those. Get this guy in a rhythm and the opponent may be in trouble. But the sample size is just way too small to extrapolate over a full load.
And it is unlikely he will get a full load. For some reason, Jones is the assumed starter, even though he has even fewer career carries (17) than Reece. A whole slew of factors are working against Jones: lack of experience, lack of size, a history of fumbling (mostly in college), not trusted in pass protection, etc. At 6'0, 197, Jones isn't small, but it's a smaller frame than most NFL teams want for their starting RB. And he runs upright, making himself more susceptible to injury (he's had a lot) and fumbling. That upright style apparently gives him one big advantage over Reece - breakaway speed.
Noted as the fastest player on a fast roster, Jones just needs a few feet of space and a little confidence to take it to the house on any play. Like Reece, he is capable of catching the ball, though probably not with the same sureness. If he gets 10 touches, a conservative estimate, there's a decent chance that one of those goes the distance. But there's probably just as much chance that he doesn't get on the field enough, or lacks the confidence to put his special skills to work in limited opportunities. Reece does.
For that reason, Reece is the better play either as a starter or reserve for you. He will be useful even if Jones succeeds, whereas Jones will probably be relegated to the safety of the bench if Reece succeeds. Reece will always be used in comeback mode, in clock-killing mode, and at the goalline. The only way Jones becomes the better option is if his explosiveness finds immediate life in the new opportunity, particularly against slower defenses that can't catch him around the ends. Otherwise, the safer play for the Raiders and for fantasy owners will be Reece.
That's not to say Jones isn't worth rostering. He is, and with great reason. There are deserved comparisons to Jamaal Charles and C.J. Spiller. But if you have to pick, pick Reece.
The potential here for either back is almost off the charts. The guys previously in front of them, Darren McFadden and Mike Goodsen, are both out with high ankle sprains. A notoriously lingering injury for two running backs that are both notorious for letting injuries linger represents a golden opportunity for Reece and/or Jones. Add in a cupcake rush defense schedule, starting with the newly-soft Ravens and the league-worst Saints over the next two weeks, and there is virtually no compelling reason to hold off on buying both guys. Granted, even with McFadden, the Raiders had one of the worst rushing offenses in the league, but some of that has to be attributed to McFadden's seeming inability to excel in the zone blocking scheme, which has proven the superior option throughout the league. Perhaps Reece or Jones can do more with it than McFadden could.
Which of these guys is going to be more valuable is the real question, and there are compelling reasons for both.
By most accounts, Reece is the guy. He's a big strong fullback (6'1, 255) so he should have no trouble pushing the pile and getting an extra yard or two between the tackles, and will almost certainly be the best option near the goalline. He is trusted in pass protection, and the Raiders will be throwing a lot, so he will simply be on the field a lot more than Jones. And the bonus for this under-the-radar asset: he catches passes as well as anyone else on the roster, so not only will he be in there a lot, he will always be available as a dump-off outlet for Carson Palmer. Long forgotten is that Reece was a wideout in college at Washington, and consistently ran a 40-yard dash in the 4.40s. This is a multi-tool player.
Working against Reece is his lack of experience as a ball carrier, dating back to college. For whatever reason, he has just never been given much of a look in that role, which is somewhat strange given he has a 4.9 YPC average on 48 carries as a pro. And that's not because he had a few breakaway runs - his career long is 31 yards. But only twice in his career has he carried the ball more than three times in one game, once in a blowout win vs. Denver in 2010, and once in a relief role to workhorse Michael Bush late last season against Minnesota when Darren McFadden was on the shelf. In those two games combined, he had 13 carries for 84 yards, and was held to under four yards on only four of those. Get this guy in a rhythm and the opponent may be in trouble. But the sample size is just way too small to extrapolate over a full load.
And it is unlikely he will get a full load. For some reason, Jones is the assumed starter, even though he has even fewer career carries (17) than Reece. A whole slew of factors are working against Jones: lack of experience, lack of size, a history of fumbling (mostly in college), not trusted in pass protection, etc. At 6'0, 197, Jones isn't small, but it's a smaller frame than most NFL teams want for their starting RB. And he runs upright, making himself more susceptible to injury (he's had a lot) and fumbling. That upright style apparently gives him one big advantage over Reece - breakaway speed.
Noted as the fastest player on a fast roster, Jones just needs a few feet of space and a little confidence to take it to the house on any play. Like Reece, he is capable of catching the ball, though probably not with the same sureness. If he gets 10 touches, a conservative estimate, there's a decent chance that one of those goes the distance. But there's probably just as much chance that he doesn't get on the field enough, or lacks the confidence to put his special skills to work in limited opportunities. Reece does.
For that reason, Reece is the better play either as a starter or reserve for you. He will be useful even if Jones succeeds, whereas Jones will probably be relegated to the safety of the bench if Reece succeeds. Reece will always be used in comeback mode, in clock-killing mode, and at the goalline. The only way Jones becomes the better option is if his explosiveness finds immediate life in the new opportunity, particularly against slower defenses that can't catch him around the ends. Otherwise, the safer play for the Raiders and for fantasy owners will be Reece.
That's not to say Jones isn't worth rostering. He is, and with great reason. There are deserved comparisons to Jamaal Charles and C.J. Spiller. But if you have to pick, pick Reece.
Saturday, November 3, 2012
Panic vs. Paradise
An old fantasy adage has never
died its proper death: Make sure you have two stud RBs, or you have no chance.
Most savvy fantasy players have moved beyond that, prioritizing the stud QBs just as much, and finding plenty of favor with strong WRs ahead of supposed featurebacks (Michael Turner, for example). But that doesn't mean you should completely disregard the former basic strategy - it just means you shouldn't rely on it to take you to The Promised Land.
Ah, The Promised Land, also known as the fantasy championship. Four months of work yields eight months of glory. Totally worth it. And yes, you do need a couple of studs to get there, but the studs could just as easily be a DST (Chicago this year) as an RB.
I'm focusing on the RBs because a good portion of this year's top stock has not lived up to expectations. The usual big injuries have hit (DeMarco Murray, Maurice Jones-Drew) but even beyond that, several of the RBs generally drafted among the top 30 players overall have somewhat disappointed the owners that drafted them.
Fortunately, almost all have remained strong RB2s, which is why I say it's no time to panic. I invested a great deal in Ryan Mathews over multiple leagues, and his season has been a relative bust thus far. But he's not worthless, and his upside is still potentially gigantic. Same thing with Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden and Jamaal Charles. Worrying is one thing, but selling low is the wrong strategy when any of these guys could post a 20 on any given week. It's tough to sweat the multiple sub-5s that each has posted this season, but I think it's still the best strategy to ride it out unless you can get a more consistent RB2 in return, and there just aren't many out there. While studs like that struggle to be the dominant forces they were reckoned to be, old-school elite RBs (McGahee, Gore) and unexpectedly strong young guys (Ridley, Morris) are instead offering their owners more consistent value. Do you trade for one of those? Difficult, but conceivable.
I'm not ready to recommend trading one of your studs for Pierre Thomas, but the upside here is off the charts provided he can stay healthy. He's proven more adept in the running game than Mark Ingram, and definitely knows how to catch-and-run, though not as perfectly as prototype Darren Sproles, who could be out through the conclusion of your fantasy playoffs. He's an every week play going forward, and a legitimate threat to match the production of pretty much any RB not named Arian Foster. This is a risk-takers dream - if you can get him for a WR2, it's an easy choice.
The NFL is continuing to trend towards a passing league, and that leaves RBs as frequently a secondary commodity. Every year, the middle class of RBs is expanding, while the upper class continues to dissolve. Take that knowledge going forward to have faith in your guys, whether they be high draft picks that have struggled, or mid-level picks that you are afraid will fall off the map. Your RBs will not win you your league anymore. You're going to have to find your ticket to paradise elsewhere.
Plug-and-Play!
-Isaac Redman. You probably missed him already, but if he's somehow still available, there is no better option if you're stuck this week. Mendenhall and Dwyer are both doubtful, leaving the Steelers without options in the backfield. Going forward, Redman's value is at best a desperation flex play, but he should be a fine RB2 this week.
Most savvy fantasy players have moved beyond that, prioritizing the stud QBs just as much, and finding plenty of favor with strong WRs ahead of supposed featurebacks (Michael Turner, for example). But that doesn't mean you should completely disregard the former basic strategy - it just means you shouldn't rely on it to take you to The Promised Land.
Ah, The Promised Land, also known as the fantasy championship. Four months of work yields eight months of glory. Totally worth it. And yes, you do need a couple of studs to get there, but the studs could just as easily be a DST (Chicago this year) as an RB.
I'm focusing on the RBs because a good portion of this year's top stock has not lived up to expectations. The usual big injuries have hit (DeMarco Murray, Maurice Jones-Drew) but even beyond that, several of the RBs generally drafted among the top 30 players overall have somewhat disappointed the owners that drafted them.
Fortunately, almost all have remained strong RB2s, which is why I say it's no time to panic. I invested a great deal in Ryan Mathews over multiple leagues, and his season has been a relative bust thus far. But he's not worthless, and his upside is still potentially gigantic. Same thing with Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden and Jamaal Charles. Worrying is one thing, but selling low is the wrong strategy when any of these guys could post a 20 on any given week. It's tough to sweat the multiple sub-5s that each has posted this season, but I think it's still the best strategy to ride it out unless you can get a more consistent RB2 in return, and there just aren't many out there. While studs like that struggle to be the dominant forces they were reckoned to be, old-school elite RBs (McGahee, Gore) and unexpectedly strong young guys (Ridley, Morris) are instead offering their owners more consistent value. Do you trade for one of those? Difficult, but conceivable.
I'm not ready to recommend trading one of your studs for Pierre Thomas, but the upside here is off the charts provided he can stay healthy. He's proven more adept in the running game than Mark Ingram, and definitely knows how to catch-and-run, though not as perfectly as prototype Darren Sproles, who could be out through the conclusion of your fantasy playoffs. He's an every week play going forward, and a legitimate threat to match the production of pretty much any RB not named Arian Foster. This is a risk-takers dream - if you can get him for a WR2, it's an easy choice.
The NFL is continuing to trend towards a passing league, and that leaves RBs as frequently a secondary commodity. Every year, the middle class of RBs is expanding, while the upper class continues to dissolve. Take that knowledge going forward to have faith in your guys, whether they be high draft picks that have struggled, or mid-level picks that you are afraid will fall off the map. Your RBs will not win you your league anymore. You're going to have to find your ticket to paradise elsewhere.
Plug-and-Play!
-Isaac Redman. You probably missed him already, but if he's somehow still available, there is no better option if you're stuck this week. Mendenhall and Dwyer are both doubtful, leaving the Steelers without options in the backfield. Going forward, Redman's value is at best a desperation flex play, but he should be a fine RB2 this week.
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