Saturday, November 12, 2011

The Boy Scout Motto

Be prepared.

That's great advice for those of you lucky enough to be in contention for the fantasy football playoffs, and now is the perfect time to get the jump on your competitors.

No byes this week, meaning everyone is back to playing their studs. But some may easily forget that there ARE byes next week, involving some major major players. Don't make that mistake. As you are shifting into potential playoff mode, remember you still need to fill any holes for next week before looking beyond.

Conspiracy theorists might have a field day with the Week 11 byes: Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh and Houston. That's a mad collection of fantasy talent, and would have been far greater if not for the Peyton Manning injury. The bye teams will certainly have an effect on a supremely critical late-season fantasy week.

By now, you know what you need to do to navigate pitfalls like that, and hopefully you are set for them. And if you are one of the fortunate ones that doesn't rely on those teams, get your postseason roster ready.

For example, drop Dallas Clark for sure. Even if he's back, the guy will not have the right answers for you in Weeks 14-16 and a matchup play is the safer option. You can safely cut the cord on studs-turned-duds like Clark, Knowshon Moreno, DeAngelo Williams, Joe Flacco and Austin Collie. They're not turning the corner anytime soon, so why hold on? A little more caution is urged for guys like Matt Ryan, Chris Johnson and Mike Williams. They MIGHT turn the corner. And if you own Jahvid Best, well, your call, but I think it's more than safe to jump ship on Manning at this point for those of you who have been desperately clinging to his non-IR status.

If Best ends up gone for the season, there is fertile ground for a running back to excel in his stead. Maurice Morris appears to be No. 1 for now, but familiar face Kevin Smith has been brought back with good reviews. And Keiland Williams is built as a goalline vulture. Tough to decide, but Morris is your first play, with Smith and Williams available for the truly desperate or dart-throwing owners. Another dart? How about Tashard Choice? It's only a matter of time for any RB when Mike Shanahan gets a hold of him. Both Detroit and Washington have reasonably favorable playoff schedules for fantasy RBs.

Which brings me to the most critical point of this entry: look at the playoff matchups now. If you are rotating 2-3 guys through one position based on matchups, plan well ahead. You may not have a good option at third wideout for Week 15, so grab a free agent who is. Steven Jackson owners probably know already they'll be hurting against Seattle, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in Weeks 14-16, but perhaps still have time to construct a crafty trade.

And I've said it before, and I'll say it again - get those DSTs lined up. My preseason prediction for the stud Steelers having the perfect storm of a playoff schedule hasn't exactly lined up in either regard, but they're not the only trick in the bag. Buffalo and Tennessee might very well be available now or in the near future in your pool, and present a wealth of opportunity in the win-or-go-home weeks. The Bills, an unexpectedly strong and consistent DST, visit turnover machine San Diego in Week 14 (although that would be a bold play) followed by home games vs. Miami and Denver in what will likely be defense-favoring weather. The Titans, a former stud DST that hasn't lived up to it this year, may draw big-time redemption in Week 15 at Indianapolis and Week 16 at home vs. Jacksonville, representing two of the most favorable opponents.

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