Vanishing Act

Another one of my man crushes bites the dust.

First, it was Dexter McCluster. Now, it's Titus Young.

The rookie wideout, who has drawn comparisons to Desean Jackson, appears to be in a fantasy freefall since breaking out with five catches for 89 yards in Week 2. In Week 3, that dropped to four catches for 51 yards. In the past four weeks, you guessed it, 3 for 41, 2 for 14, 1 for 14, and finally 0 for 0 last week. It's a very disappointing downward trend for a guy who was supposed to be a kind of Julio Jones lite, a solid second fiddle to an elite receiver in a strong all-around offense.

Seven weeks in, we have enough information to label guys busts or breakouts. Being a rookie, it's tough to label Young a bust, but he's not a guy you can trust anytime soon. Ditto Robert Meachem. Coinciding directly with the return to prominence of Marques Colston and the surprising emergence of Darren Sproles as a truly dominant factor in the receiving game, Meachem's disappearance has left him alongside fellow Saints afterthoughts Lance Moore and Devery Henderson.

It may be just my impression, but it seems as though WRs in general are the least reliable fantasy commodities, which is why I rarely prioritize them in drafts, although there is an at least equally compelling argument against that strategy. The rationale argument accurately suggests there are frequently less than 10 wideouts you can count on to be every week fantasy starts, so why not grab them as early as possible to lock up the more elusive spots on your roster? The Fred Jacksons and DeMarco Murrays occur with regularity every year, so you can always find an RB2 with upside, but a Miles Austin type breakout is much rarer.

I stick with my strategy though, securing my RB spots plus an elite QB before even considering a wideout. By that time, the top 10 are gone and I'm left with a big pile of hopefully more hit than miss. Desean Jackson is the poster boy for this.

But it's not the failed wideout that will sink you, it's the failed RB1. (Failed QB1s are even rarer than Miles Austin type breakouts. You almost always get what you pay for there.) That honor this season belongs to Chris Johnson, although Rashard Mendenhall is making a good case. Throw in injuries to Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Steven Jackson and Peyton Hillis, and you're looking at six of the top 12 RBs not delivering any value close to draft expectations. And RB2s like Knowshon Moreno and DeAngelo Williams are even larger albatrosses if you were counting on one to be a weekly play for you. That's where the Fred Jacksons and DeMarco Murrays can save you if you're savvy enough to draft an insurance policy (Jackson) or lucky enough to hit the lottery (Murray).

Jackson might be the least likely fantasy MVP in history. Arian Foster was at least speculated to be a sleeper prior to 2010, and was usually drafted in the fifth round or better. Jackson was a lost cause, with his great starting stats from 2010 buried behind his advancing age (30) and the still-never-found-promise of C.J. Spiller.

Jackson may still have a ways to catch Aaron Rodgers this year. Another part of my draft strategy is to forego a backup QB when I draft an elite guy early. That gives me an extra roster spot to fool around with, but leaves me very exposed to a potential injury and of course the bye week. I was hoping my sneaky acquisition of Sam Bradford last week was going to pay off in a potential shootout vs. New Orleans, but alas, I'm stuck with Christian Ponder.

Blaine Gabbert was my first choice on the All Watch List team at the start of the season, and he's advanced to the starting position quicker than Ponder, but Ponder was universally tabbed as the most pro-ready of the 2011 draft class and now he'll get the chance to show it. Given the way Donovan McNabb has been fading it terms of effectiveness, this change can only be good news for the Vikings skill players. Perhaps Percy Harvin will finally emerge as the dominant wildcard wideout he's always been projected to be.

Sneaky Plays
I'm going to dip my toe in a little bit once more. No specifics, but I do expect these guys to be very playable with good upside this week, significantly exceeding their weekly season average:

Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown: I actually think both will have decent fantasy days even if Hines Ward plays. This has the makings of the highest scoring contest of the weekend.

Evan Moore and Greg Little: The switch is very close to being flipped in their favor and the lack of alternatives this week could force that switch now.

Jabar Gaffney: Like Moore and Little, the lack of options bumps him up. And he's got a better matchup than those guys.

Pierre Thomas: On name alone, he's not a sneaky play. But he didn't get his first double digit total of the season until just last week. This will be his second, with his highest ceiling of the year.