Status and Strategy

You're halfway to fantasy heaven - the football championship.

If you're actually reading this blog then, like me, you have an addiction. And nothing feeds that addiction like success. So if you're 6-2 or better, I applaud you, and I feel bad for your family. If you're 2-6 or worse, I encourage you to continue to make a good fight, and I feel bad for your family.

If you're part of the latter crew, you'll probably have to run the table over the next five weeks in order to make the playoffs. That ain't happening unless you're ridiculously lucky. But that doesn't mean you shouldn't bother anymore. As a courtesy to other owners in contention and to maintain the integrity of competition, continue to make your claims and set your optimal lineup. Winning can still be fun. An added bonus is being able to play some players you like more than others even if they aren't the "best" choices each week. You don't have to throw a game, but you can make alternative choices based on preserving an element of fun for yourself. For me, that might mean playing all the Green Bay Packers in one week. Seriously! That would not be a terrible starting lineup, particularly in a favorable matchup.

(As an aside for those in keeper leagues, stock up now! If you're 2-6 like me, forget about matchups coming up and go directly to next year. As promised, I added Mikel Leshoure as a high-probability lottery ticket.)

If you're in the elite 6-2 or better (and it is elite - in a competitive league, you have to be lucky AND good) take a moment to pat yourself on the back and then get back to business. Your focus has certainly been part of your solid run. Don't make the mistake of switching to cruise control. In your advantaged position, you can trade from a position of power, acquiring a more fitting starter or backup from a more desperate owner without compromising what you've got. You can also consider rostering less-than-obvious handcuffs (Matt Flynn for Aaron Rodgers, for example) for outstanding peace of mind. And if you're streaming through one or more positions, definitely start looking at least one full week ahead so you're not in a waiver fight each week.

For no position is this more effective than for Defense / Special Teams. Streaming there is a very popular strategy, so chances are owners are lining up to make their claims and you're just lucky if you get who you want. Reduce the luck factor. Look ahead to Weeks 10 and 11 now and notice that the Browns are hosting the Rams and the Jaguars back-to-back. The Browns DST hasn't been anything special, but they've done fine against the favorable opponents, and few are more favorable than those.

That also makes Chris Ogbonnaya an even better flyer. His longest run last week was only seven yards, but that was against a stout 49ers defense. Houston isn't much more favorable this week, but next week he should be far more effective against the St. Louis front seven if Hillis and Hardesty are still out. And lost in the mix is that he catches the ball as well as any RB having started his college career as a wideout. (He had eight targets last week!) He's not as physically intimidating as Hillis, but 6'0, 225 ain't small.

Taiwan Jones has to qualify for the short-term replacement list as well with McFadden on the shelf for who knows how long. This is a team built to run, and Jones is actually the fastest RB they've got. I think a lot of people will be surprised at how many carries he gets and how much he does with them. Michael Bush CAN carry the load (he's done it in limited fashion before) but I don't think the Raiders feel that doing that is their best option. I'm predicting no better than a 2-to-1 ratio of carries favoring Bush, and with this team's penchant for the ground game, that means at least 10-12 carries for Jones. I'm also predicting Jones to be the far more effective per-carry guy, but probably because he is able to break off one or two monsters against an unsuspecting Denver defense. Bush is still your goalline back and should have no trouble punching at least one in.

But if you're 6-2, you're unlikely to need either Ogbonnaya or Jones. Those guys are perfect for the 3-5 teams that drafted Hillis or Moreno or a host of other RBs that simply haven't been there.

The 3-5 to 5-3 teams probably have the most fun remaining through the rest of the fantasy regular season. Nothing like a playoff race to ramp up the intensity of each week, particularly when your opponent that week is in the very same race! If you're in that mix, keep doing what you've been doing: optimal combinations, sound reserves and measured risk. You're well past the draft and diamond-in-the-rough stage. You obviously increase your risk if you're on the 3-5 side, but don't go crazy - yet. Like I said, Ogbonnaya and Jones are perfect for you.