Will the real Ryan Mathews please stand up?

If you, like me, drafted Ryan Mathews high in a keeper league headed into his rookie year, and accepted the risk of keeping him into this year, the last two weeks have been like manna from heaven. I drafted him with visions of LT dancing in my head. What I got was a lump of coal. Not a Donald Brown lump of coal, but a lump of coal nevertheless. But that has all finally changed. Or so I thought.

A nagging foot injury kept Mathews out of practice Thursday, and with another reliable guy in the wings (Mike Tolbert), why would the Chargers risk Mathews come Sunday? Will he be active? Probably. But not prominently featured like he was last week, when he looked like he owned the field. I think that at least for this week, we're back to close to an even split, with Tolbert getting the call down low.

The value of each for Week 4 is dependent on the state of the rest of the offense. Gates is almost certainly out, and Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd are not 100 percent. If they struggle in the passing game, scoring chances won't be as plentiful, killing Tolbert. If the offense does click, Tolbert should be considered above most average options because he'll probably take at least one in. Mathews should be reasonably productive either way, but not like last week.

Going forward, it's a quandary. Does Norv Turner trust the high-talent hot hand and let Mathews go nuts? Or does he go back to the committee approach he preached in the preseason? I personally love the committee system from a real-life perspective (two different and fresh backs, defense has to constantly adjust) but there's no doubt Mathews is far more likely to put a defense on its heels. The lead-with-your-head Tolbert adds a completely different dimension that doesn't seem to be in line with Chargers football, but certainly represents a unique option on their offensive palette. There is very little doubt that Turner will do whatever creates the best chance for the Chargers to win consistently. We just don't know what that is yet.

A commitment to Mathews would kill my man crush Tolbert, but I'm OK with that. One of the most enjoyable things about fantasy football is the emergence of studs, and Mathews has the potential to be just that. The guy we didn't think had that potential that is proving us all wrong is Fred Jackson.

Currently the No. 3 RB in standard settings fantasy leagues, Jackson has posted triple-digit totals in each of his first three games, and monster 20-pointers in the last two. Now that's a fantasy. I personally believe he will come back down to Earth at some point, but maybe not if Ryan Fitzpatrick maintains his success and the team continues to win. Against New England last week, Jackson looked like Arian Foster, and if 3-0 Buffalo finishes 12-4, Jackson will probably finish with stats like Foster. This is hard to believe coming from a 30-year-old, but the guy keeps himself in notoriously good shape and was exceptional when featured last year, so why not? At this point, C.J. Spiller is absolutely no threat. And if you believe in the potential, there still may be an opportunity to buy low from those who do not.

Jackson's last two games have been in shootouts against Oakland and New England, and those two foes will face off this week in what should turn into another laser show. Expect more great things from Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker. The running back usage will be fascinating, as Stevan Ridley showed some flash last week, but is likely still behind BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead in what could eventually morph back into the least fantasy relevant rushing committee in the NFL. On the other side, it's scary to think what Darren McFadden will be able to do to the Patriots considering what Jackson just did. And given New England's inexplicable ability to defend the big pass, Denarius Moore and even a now-healthy Jacoby Ford should be projected to perform well.


Open Auditions for the RB Draft Class of 2011

Before the start of the season, fantasy owners had to abandon ship on Ryan Williams and Mike Leshoure, at least for one season, much like we did for Ben Tate and Montario Hardesty in 2010. By now, we also know where we stand on Mark Ingram (big timeshare but big upside) and Daniel Thomas (a lot of potential if he can stay healthy.) This may be the week where we get a good look at the rest of the class of 2011.

With Jason Snelling out and Michael Turner struggling a bit, we'll definitely see more carries and perhaps some real explosiveness out of Jacquizz Rodgers. And with Frank Gore hurting, Kendall Hunter will look to build on a solid Week 3 with at least few more looks and many more if he starts to prove more effective than Gore. Ditto Stevan Ridley, although New England will forever be a passing offense with too many options in the backfield.

The guy to really watch this week is Alex Green. A big back (6'0, 225) with good speed (4.45/40), Green has long-term featureback potential although his ceiling this year was supposedly limited to a change-of-pace role at best. I'm not so sure. Grant is out for Week 4, so Green will definitely get a good look behind Starks, the guy everyone else is hyping for a big breakout. Green's situation is somewhat comparable to Starks' last year, so we may have to wait as much as a year for this one to truly pan out from behind Starks and Grant, but this week should be a nice preview. And if it's good enough, he at least enters the conversation going forward for this year in one of the league's top offenses.

The DeMarco Murray machine will have to wait with Felix Jones putting up a good showing last week, but at least he looked better than Tashard Choice. Speaking of guys who used to be assets for the Cowboys, Marion Barber will make his season debut for Chicago this week. The preseason chatter was about him being the goal line back, but I'm not going to believe it until I see it.


DST Paranoia

I love Pittsburgh as a DST play late in the season due to cupcake stretch schedule, but it will be a bumpy ride this weekend. After posting a negative total in the opener at Baltimore, I'm scared to play the Steelers in a similar situation at Houston, especially with Arian Foster returning to the fold. Amazingly, I like the Houston DST more. It was exposed by New Orleans last week, but the Steelers are not the Saints. Contrary to seeming logic, recent season trends have the Steelers as not a bad opponent for a DST, and the Texans DST is on the way up.

Looking for options to plug in for the Steelers, Houston isn't a poor alternative. Washington (at St. Louis) was a popular choice on the waiver wire, but I don't trust them 100 percent, and Steven Jackson is probably back for the Rams. Tampa Bay (hosting Indianapolis) looks like a great choice with Curtis Painter slated to make his first career start. He's got the support of his teammates, but will be suspect under the bright lights on Monday Night on a hostile field.


Sneaky Plays

Jason Campbell: 300+ yards, 3 TDs. This matchup is a textbook shootout and should be played accordingly.
Play instead of Schaub, Flacco, Romo, Ryan.

Alex Green: 70+ all-purpose yards, 1 TD. I think this one's over at halftime, and the Packers see what he's got for them in the future. Obviously far less likely if it turns into a close game.
Play instead of McGahee, Moreno, Tate, Green-Ellis.

Jacoby Ford: 75+ yards, 1 TD. He'll be highly motivated in his first game of the season, and draws the perfect opponent for showing off.
Play instead of any Saints WR. Colston's potential return further muddies the already murkiest receiving situation in the league. Some of them will undoubtedly succeed, but which ones? I give that at least another week.

Tampa Bay DST: 3 turnovers, 1 TD. The Colts' defense has actually stepped up, and the Tampa offense has not, so this will be a grinding, low-scoring affair.
Play instead of Pittsburgh DST.

Adding the "play instead of" increases my risk significantly, and the guys I chose this week are especially bold. I'm tempting fate here, so take these with a grain of salt. This could be the week that my predictions implode, in which case I may cower back to a more conservative ideal.