Bye Week Madness

The bye weeks are upon us, and that should compel you to do two things: defend your interests and keep an eye out for bargains.

By defending your interests, I mean retaining as much full-season value as possible when planning for the holes that are going to come across your lineup over the next few weeks. It's not an easy field to navigate, but it IS easy to get caught up in filling a one-week need that actually makes your overall lineup weaker in the long run. The good news is that everyone else is going through the same critical decision-making process, and inevitably some will falter, leaving you the opportunity to swoop in and pick up a player that may have been unattainable previously. Retaining a high waiver position comes in especially handy here, so consider passing up average or positionally deep options during the standard process in favor of using the saved pick for the potential home run that some other owner drops out of desperation.

Where you are in the standings should be a significant factor in how you approach the bye weeks. If you are 0-4, you probably don't have the luxury of sitting on your lineup, but chances are it's not worth sitting on anyway. Go ahead and be aggressive on a week-to-week basis until you get back to .500. That means dropping guys that you may have been counting on for depth, an asset you'll just have to ignore if you're struggling. But remember to think ahead - don't drop a depth guy that's going to play for you in two or three critical weeks.

If you're 4-0 (or even 3-1) you can do some very creative things. Above all, if you are confident in your depth and ability to navigate through the bye weeks, start working the trade wires. You are already dealing from a position of strength, and if you find an owner that has a glaring positional hole coming up, you may be able to lift something a little extra off of him. (As with any trade, consider the head-to-head week against that owner before you make a deal. Don't trade an RB2 with a dream matchup coming up against you!)

Another creative option you may consider is just surrendering a week if that strategy could greatly benefit you down the road. If your lineup is stacked, but you have a number of byes in the same week, it's borderline advisable to proceed without filling those holes in that week just so your lineup looks just as strong after the byes. This is risky, because every win is vital in a short season, but it can have enormous benefits. Especially if it enables you to craft an even stronger lineup going forward instead of using a valuable roster spot for what is nothing more than a one-week flier.


Quarter Pole Evaluation

By far, the best guys to have are the ones that are the most consistent assets week in and week out. These are fairly rare. Four weeks in, there are only two WRs that have reached double digit fantasy totals in each: Megatron obviously, and Greg Jennings. (So much for Finley stealing his targets.) Not a single tight end has done that, but the surprising consistency leader here is Tony Gonzalez, with a low of seven points in Week 1, the only week he has failed to find the end zone. Pretty darn good for a guy who has supposedly lost a step. I bought into the logic as well and named him to my preseason All Overdraft Team. I was right on with Ochocinco and Moreno, but I missed badly on Gonzo.

The QBs and RBs have naturally fared a bit better in terms of consistency. High picks LeSean McCoy and Darren McFadden have done exactly what they were drafted for, and Ray Rice has actually topped the 15-point mark in each of the first four weeks, making him my quarter pole RB MVP. The more shocking four-week double-digit RBs are Ryan Mathews, Fred Jackson and Darren Sproles. I had none of those on my preseason All Reserve or All Under the Radar teams, but who did? Granted, there were a few pundits still pumping Jackson as a great RB3 after last season, and one or two even liked Sproles a lot in his new scheme, but none predicted fantasy gold this brilliant. I liked Mike Tolbert, Brandon Jacobs and Willis McGahee as the superior depth guys, and I think all of those have panned out as expected as great backups, but certainly nowhere near Jackson.

The steady QBs (15 or more fantasy points each week) include three of the usual suspects: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and the absolutely incomparable Aaron Rodgers, who has put up four straight 20+ weeks culminating in last week's explosion. Get used to it. Rodgers will win more than one week on his own this season. Not only does he have as many great targets as any other QB in the league, his offensive line is now patched up and he remains as big a rushing TD threat as any RB on the team. The other two QBs excelling in the consistency category are Matthew Stafford and Matt Hasselbeck. Stafford's breakout was widely predicted, but I foolishly submitted to peer pressure and tabbed Matt Ryan just ahead of him in that regard. When in doubt, go with your gut, and my gut said Stafford, so shame on me. Silly as it may sound, Hasselbeck was also on my preseason radar but I did not hype him at all, going instead with Eli Manning as my All Reserve choice and Kerry Collins as my Under the Radar choice. (Good call, genius.) The savvy veteran Hasselbeck, who boasted a history of reasonable and reliable fantasy success, was clearly entering a better situation in Tennessee than he was leaving in Seattle and you had to figure both he and Britt would benefit from the new partnership. I would never have predicted he would succeed much without Britt, but he's already proven me wrong. A round of applause is needed for him and Gonzo, two veterans thrown away in most circles, but I remain as yet unconvinced that Hasselbeck is truly an every-week play. That silvery coach is turning back into a pumpkin any day now.

I'm not sure Cinderella's ride will come to an end this week though, as Hasselbeck draws a Pittsburgh defense that has been average at best through the first four weeks. My golden child DST still has a wonderful playoff schedule to look forward to down the road, but has been pretty disappointing thus far and is becoming a progressively riskier play each week. This week is especially problematic, as Tennessee has been a tough nut to crack for opposing DSTs, including Baltimore, the overwhelmingly most powerful DST so far with a league-leading 14 turnovers, four resulting in TDs. In most leagues, the Ravens have rewarded their owners with 20 fantasy points in every week except Week 2 at Tennessee, when they actually flat lined or even cost their owners a point or two. That's an extremely scary proposition for Pittsburgh DST owners this week. Play with extreme caution and low expectations. For the second straight week, I prefer the opposing DST more than Pittsburgh's own. Houston proved me right last week, so play the Titans with confidence if you have the opportunity. There are a ton of dark horse DST plays this week, so you should have plenty of options even if the best ones aren't available.

The Patriots are not one of them, however, and I'm afraid to even play the stud Jets DST on the other side against the cash register New England offense. Good things may happen, no doubt, but there's just as much chance that the Jets defense will get summarily picked apart. And playing the Patriots DST, even against a Mark Sanchez that looked like a deer in the headlights last week, is a huge mistake. They are just not getting it done in any way shape or form and cannot be wisely played until they show some semblance of life.


Top Running Back for Week 5?

This is shaping up to be a wonderful week for some running backs, and one game will have huge fantasy fireworks on both sides. Tune in to the Raiders at the Texans for the Foster-DMC show starting at 1pm ET. The 2010 version of Arian Foster will be having his first true return engagement and anything short of 120 slashing all-purpose yards and two TDs will have to be considered a major disappointment. Four TDs would not be a shock because there is nothing close to him as an offensive option with Andre Johnson out. On the other side, expect Darren McFadden to grab the spotlight back at every chance and put up similar numbers. The two most thrilling RBs are going head-to-head. It just doesn't get any better.

I'm leaning heavily towards Foster as the top RB for Week 5, but DMC certainly has a shot. So does Ryan Mathews given the diminishing number of healthy options in that offense and Norv Turner's suggestion this week that a lot more touches for him would be highly beneficial. And now that Brandon Jacobs is doubtful for Sunday at home against Seattle, you can count on Ahmad Bradshaw for 25 or so touches in a very favorable matchup. Speaking of which, you've got upstart Fred Jackson at home against the exceptionally generous Philadelphia rush defense. Obviously Adrian Peterson is always a threat to top the charts in a given week, and this week he's home vs. Arizona.

Your guess is as good as mine.


Sneaky Plays
If you're not lucky enough to have one of the RBs listed above, you may need some help. Here are some options for bye week or injury substitutions:

Dexter McCluster: 70+ all-purpose yards and a touchdown.
If there is any week for him to step into the void left by Jamaal Charles, this is it. His last chance before his bye week to show he is something special, and a good opponent to do it against. He's a great risk play for an empty WR spot if you play in a league where he has that eligibility, but also would be fine in the RB spot if he holds true to this prediction.

Stevan Ridley: 70+ yards, 1 TD.
No Danny Woodhead means a lot more carries for the up-and-comer against a surprisingly unintimidating Jets rush defense. Rex Ryan's recent frustration will likely mean a greater emphasis on stopping the run this week, but I think it will be pounder BenJarvus Green-Ellis that takes the bigger hit in that regard, and how can you focus on defending the run when the Pats are way more dangerous through the air? Considered in conjunction with Ridley's strong showing last week, these factors seem to make him an excellent choice as a bye fill this Sunday.

Shonn Greene: 20+ carries, 100+ yards, 1 TD.
He qualifies as a sneaky play this week because he's basically a forgotten man among the high-drafted RBs. He’s gonna get the rock this week, and get it a lot. The ground-and-pound is back, and Greene is the primary beneficiary, especially against a reeling Patriots defense. Expect LT and McKnight to be serviceable as well, with at least five fantasy points each.