Sneaking up on Sam Bradford

Entering the season as a QB2 with high upside, St. Louis' Sam Bradford was consistently drafted as one of the most attractive No. 2 fantasy quarterbacks. Through five games, it hasn't exactly worked out that way as he has only three TD passes. He's only throw two picks, but he's fumbled seven times and been sacked 21 times. Clearly, his greatest asset as a fantasy player is as an attractive opponent for any DST. And while that trend may continue, I also think he'll turn things around for himself now that he has a true No. 1 receiver in Brandon Lloyd as well as former favorite Mark Clayton re-entering the fold soon after starting the season on the PUP list.

Now I'm not recommending plugging him in there this week, especially with his highly questionable status due to a high ankle sprain, but how about next week in what is sure to be a pass-happy shootout at home against New Orleans? I consider him to be one of the best buy-low candidates in the biz, and possibly even available on your waiver wire. His ownership numbers are steadily dwindling, certainly below his potential. Unfortunately, the bye weeks are a tough time to be speculating, but if you've got the spot, he's still a potential homerun, especially in a deep keeper league. If you're going in circles at QB (with a guy like Matt Ryan, for example) and you missed on Tebow, Bradford may be the perfect complementary guy. Don't look to him for this year's playoffs though, as he draws a stingy Bengals pass defense in Week 15 and then has a nightmare trip to what is sure to be a bitterly cold Pittsburgh in Week 16.

You want a favorable fantasy playoff schedule? Try Aaron Rodgers - home dates against Oakland and Chicago (both struggling against the pass) and a trip to Kansas City in weeks 14 through 16. As if he wasn't a difference maker enough already. That's almost unfair to the rest of your pool. No chance you're going to trade for him now - just hope you don't have to face him when it really counts.


The Best Strategy

As mentioned at the start of the season, the Peyton Manning injury ranks among the highest ever in terms of overall fantasy impact (basically sinking all the boats in the Indy offense) but the Jahvid Best concussion is up there. He is quietly the third-most targeted RB, behind only Darren Sproles and Matt Forte, and actually ahead of Ray Rice. Perhaps more importantly, he's also the third-most targeted player in the Detroit offense, behind Megatron and Brandon Pettigrew (a very good buy right now) and adds a dimension that requires a great deal of defensive attention. The Detroit offense will have to be simplified without him, but it remains to be seen how that will be played out. It could lead to even more passing attempts in an offense that is already heavily skewed towards the air game. Some of Best's targets could head the way of Nate Burleson or Titus Young, thus far forgotten fantasy commodities. But it could also mean less success for Matt Stafford if he has no running game to distract the defense and no consistent outlet pass available.

One thing is for sure - Maurice Morris is very fantasy relevant for the time being, and possibly well through the rest of the season if Best's concussion proves lingering. He's experienced in the Lions' system and trusted by the coaching staff, and has virtually no competition for carries with Jerome Harrison knocked out as well. Keiland Williams is basically a Hail Mary that could vulture some touchdowns, but we said that about Peyton Hillis a few years ago and look what happened there. Word out of Detroit practice is that Williams is getting first-team reps alongside Morris. Desperate owners can add Williams if they missed on Morris and just see what happens this week. Williams was exceptional in a two-game stint as Washington's featureback last year. My money is on Best being out awhile and both backs having a good deal of risk-reward value. My money is also on Mikel Leshoure getting at least as many snaps next year as Best with elite value if Best goes down again. Dynasty owners, take note!


Irrational Kicker Crush

I hate kickers. They're totally unpredictable, thus capable of winning or losing you any given week. That said, I am an irrational fan of Sebastian Janikowski. There are actually a lot of good consistent options this year, which is unusual, but I'm married to the guy. So much so that I'm actually considering stashing him even if he's injured. That would be a major fantasy faux-pas. But his ability to put up a monster-long field goal (or two, or three) makes him an every week play with big upside in my mind. Keeping him also prevents me from having to do the too often fruitless weekly research required to stream kickers. If for some reason you feel the same way, and for some reason have an extra spot sitting there during these trying weeks, this could be your cue to snatch him off the waiver wire as his current owner may not. Just something to keep in mind.

This brings me to another point. Along with all the other "nevers" associated with fantasy kickers, never waste a priority waiver claim on a kicker.


A Word on Waivers

Having a general strategy for how to use your waivers will go a long way towards consistent success, and make it easier for you to decide each week. Some people use waivers like they use the bathroom - when you need to go, you go. Nothing sophisticated about that, making it simple to use a top waiver priority on a kicker if you're streaming, or your guy is on a bye. Certainly not my strategy, but a very easy one to use.

Obviously, it depends on your settings, but generally a high waiver priority is something to be cherished for a special occasion. Either for an obvious high-end add, or a one-week asset that you can play ahead of that week's opponent, who likely would have grabbed him had you not. And by high waiver priority, I mean top third of the total pool. If you have such a pick, and there is nothing obvious out there, save it, and hope someone gets careless and drops something better. Then you have a better opportunity to pounce.

The inverse is true if you have a low waiver priority (bottom third of total pool). If you do, you aren't going to advance high enough to make a claim for someone else's bad drop, so don't bother waiting. Put in all your claims ahead of time and enjoy the results. The only exception to this might be late in the season when you're battling one particular other owner, and you want to make sure you stay ahead of him in the claim order. Then you really have to pick your spots.

If you're in the middle third of the waiver priority order, there are any number of ways you can go. Certainly critical needs can dictate using up mid-level claims. but pay attention to the fantasy skills of the other owners in your pool. If they're all savvy, you're not going to have too many opportunities for bad drops, so trying to advance in the order is very unlikely to help you. If you're playing with a bunch of idiots though, not only will there be repeated bad drops, but some of the guys ahead of you in the order at any time may not even notice them. I find playing with idiots kills the sport of it though, and rarely do I last in leagues such as those.