Abandon Ship!

OK, I admit it. I dropped Dexter McCluster.

After he was overshadowed by Jackie Battle(!?) in last week's golden opportunity against Indianapolis, I'm convinced he's not worth a roster spot during the bye weeks, despite having dual position eligibility. He's just not anything more than a lottery ticket and/or desperation play, similar to several available on the waiver wire in any given week. I would not be at all surprised if he re-emerged later this season (remember Jamaal Charles a few years ago?) especially if a coaching change occurs, but for the time being, he's not going to help you much. Keep him on your watch list, but don't bother rostering him.

Unfortunately, this is the time of year when you have to make critical decisions like these, going against your own early-season gut feelings or even against what seems like better judgement. The Colts are loaded with these. Austin Collie has already been dropped in a ton of leagues, and Dallas Clark is next. Possibly even Joseph Addai given last season's example of a lingering injury. And for those of you who drafted and are still clinging to Peyton Manning? Very tough call, very dependent on your record and alternatives.

Just in time for the bye weeks, we've got another deep waiver week sprinkled with RBs and WRs, but headlined by a quarterback of course in Tim Tebow. In general, I'm not a fan of his as a either a real-life NFL QB or as a reliable fantasy asset, but it's impossible to deny the unique value his rushing skills bring to table. I'm just worried about those days when he gets mauled by a smart defense and commits four turnovers. That happens to even the best, but I just think it's much more likely to happen to Tebow. And without giant passing numbers to make up for his errors, he will certainly have negative days, a scary proposition for the most important position on your team. I really think that unless you're in a cloudy QB situation or in a relatively deep keeper league, Tebow is not worth much to you and isn't the smartest use of a high waiver spot. But he is an extremely intriguing lottery ticket.

His effect on RBs McGahee and Moreno will be fascinating. Like Cam Newton in Carolina, he's his own goal-line back, which seems a much greater punch to the gut of McGahee than Moreno, who hasn't sniffed that duty anyway. Moreno, possibly the biggest bust of the season so far, amazingly did not receive a single carry last week, but salvaged his day with a long catch-and-run TD for anyone who was desperate and played him. Going forward, he may actually see a few more dumpoffs from Tebow, but it looks like he's almost useless barring a McGahee injury, which is not an unlikely scenario. Still tough to sit on him through the bye weeks though.

More news out of Denver was the apparent trade availability of No. 1 wideout Brandon Lloyd, who was going to take a fantasy hit with Tebow under center anyway. Lloyd owners should be happy if he leaves, and vultures may elect to pounce on a choice of Eddie Royal or Demariyus Thomas as new options there. Royal is actually probably a solid option as a slot/possession receiver for Tebow, whereas Thomas, despite loaded with talent, is probably not ready for a weekly fantasy role just yet, fresh back from injury and with still a lot of work to do to develop chemistry with Tebow. Upside, sure, and there is very little that would surprise me about Tebow at this point. But I wouldn't bet on it.

Ahead of Royal and Thomas on the WR waiver wire this week were James Jones, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Greg Little. In Jones, you're getting the equivalent of somewhere between Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson, a guy who will have his targets and big days, but is far from a guaranteed producer. Decent bye week play with good upside, but not a guy you want to have to rely on every week. Heyward-Bey is a total hit or miss, and with two hits in a row, the former Top 10 pick is quickly becoming a darling in fantasy circles after two seasons of near total irrelevance. Little is still a mystery, but is expected to see a bump in snaps and targets and has the skill set to do something special with more opportunities. All three are solid substitutions for your regulars and any could emerge down the stretch as fantasy playoff assets.

At RB, take your pick. It's deep, yes, but far from dynamic, as most of them carry big question marks about actual workload. Addai's injury makes Delone Carter AND Donald Brown technically viable in the short-term, although it's hard to expect much even if you are able to decide which is the better play. If BenJarvus Green-Ellis sits, Stevan Ridley will be an intriguing sneaky play, but Danny Woodhead might be back as well, capping the ceiling for either. Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer are only absolute desperation plays with Rashard Mendenhall back, but he's not going to get all the carries. Ryan Torain and Jackie Battle could continue to produce like RB2s, or disappear in favor of a hotter hand.

The only sure workhorse out of these in Week 6 is Earnest Graham, so he's the smartest choice for someone with no viable option at RB. He'll probably get the gig for at least a couple of weeks, and was actually fantasy-serviceable as the third-down back before Blount went down, so he should remain that after Blount's return. I like him quite a bit for the bye weeks, and as a 4th or 5th RB after if you still want the insurance depth.


Sneaky Plays Scorecard

Dexter McCluster
Prediction: 70+ all-purpose yards and a touchdown.
Actual: 5 touches, 18 all-purpose yards
Ouch. I really didn't see that coming. Head coach Todd Haley hinted at working Jackie Battle in more and he wasn't kidding.

Stevan Ridley
Prediction: 70+ yards, 1 TD.
Actual: 7 carries, 13 yards
Double ouch. My radar was way off on both McCluster and Ridley.

Shonn Greene
Prediction: 20+ carries, 100+ yards, 1 TD.
Actual: 21 carries, 83 yards, 1 TD. A little short on yardage, but otherwise fine. This one was easier to predict because of Rex Ryan's proclamation of the ground-and-pound, but it was nevertheless pleasant to see Greene return to fantasy relevance.

My sneaky plays have gotten progressively worse over the course of the season, so I think I'll have to tone it down until my luck changes!