Suffering the Schedule

Just like a fantasy player, I have my off weeks. This is going to be one of them, and unfortunately, next week may be as well. Just a little too busy to get my fantasy thoughts in right now!

I will say my key observation for this week already is that the Giants are possibly the team that is most likely to turn an unknown into a real fantasy commodity. They've done it now in three successive seasons at wide receiver with Mario Manningham, then Victor Cruz, and now possibly Ramses Barden. I think it's safe to say whoever locks down that third wideout spot in New York is a safe weekly start for the rest of the season, and Barden for now has a decent edge on Dominic Hixon and Reuble Randle. Buy now, believe later.

It's probably too late to buy Martellus Bennett, but there's another question mark that has morphed into an exclamation point. If you can get him on the cheap (for Fred Davis, or Robert Meachem, or Kevin Smith), I think it's a no-brainer. I'm not ready to move him ahead of Jermichael Finley, but he's headed rapidly in that direction.

I have no idea what's going to happen with Andre Brown after Thursday Night's performance, but whatever it is is more bad news for Ahmad Bradshaw, who is almost certain to be demoted into at best a timeshare similar to what he had last year, and still looking at David Wilson on the horizon. Bradshaw was always a playable RB2 and I think it will continue that way for now, but Brown looks the part of a more sprite version of what Brandon Jacobs was last year, a weekly RB3. Coughlin defers to veterans, but he also plays the guys who earn it, and Brown earned it. As a Bradshaw owner, I hate to say it, but Brown looks like the better powerback, goalline option, and clock killer, likely a regular need for this strong offense. I don't think he outsnaps or outtouches Bradshaw, but I would not be at all surprised if he outproduces him going forward. Then again, it WAS Carolina. But with Bradshaw's injury history, there is nothing but upside here.

Thwarted

Well that was a mess. And I'm not talking about the Packers-Bears game, although that qualifies as well.

In Week 1, I went a perfect 0-4 in my four money leagues, thanks in large part to my preseason darling, the Buffalo Bills' DST. On the first possession of the game, the Bills managed to pick off dream opponent Mark Sanchez, as expected. But after that, they allowed him to score at will, as he managed three TD passes, no sacks, and a QB rating near 100. Mark Sanchez! Allowing 48 total points, the Bills DST was a negative asset in Week 1, and will be difficult to trust again anytime soon. They've still got that magnificent stretch schedule, but they'll have to show some consistency before one can take the risk. My whole master plan up in flames. Drat!

Unfortunately, that's fantasy football, especially in the first few weeks of the season. You spend the entire offseason (or even just a few weeks) coming up with brilliant fantasy schemes, but many are primarily based in incomplete data - what happened last season. Just because the Jets were a dream opponent for DSTs last year doesn't make them so this year, even if many signs point to it. Could Jeremy Kerley and Stephen Hill be WR2s? That's probably pushing it, but we won't know for sure they're not until we're into about Week 5.

In last week's column, I hesitated to mention Dexter McCluster's heavily targeted preseason, mostly because it was preseason, Dwayne Bowe wasn't around, and he's burned me as a recommendation in the past. But lo and behold, even in the regular season with Bowe alongside, McCluster led the team in targets (10!) and pulled down 6 for 82 yards. He didn't find the endzone, but 10 targets is at least a must-roster in all leagues. McCluster the Must-Roster. And guess what? He started the season with RB eligibility and now has WR to go with it. An old fantasy mancrush has been reborn. That means lots of 2s, 3s and 4s over the next several weeks, of course. But it's always nice to be excited about someone.

Much more quickly than expected, Randall Cobb went from sleeper to wide awake in just the first week of his much-hyped "breakout" season. But on Thursday, Packers' head coach Mike McCarthy pushed the snooze button, giving Cobb just two offensive touches despite the inactive status of stud WR Greg Jennings. That's not going to win any fantasy matchups for the folks who plugged-and-played him in Week 2. I feel even worse for those who rolled the dice on James Jones, who looked the part of a backup trying to be a starter, with a missed catch in the end zone and a rookiesque mistake in failing to complete a route that resulted in a Chicago interception. Lost in my offseason of research was the fact that Jennings is in a contract year, and could be traded midseason or simply not resigned by the Packers for 2013 and beyond. That puts a pretty significant crimp on his value, especially in keeper/dynasty leagues, given there is virtually no better spot for an elite receiver than in Green Bay. All the best QBs already have high-end No. 1s in place, so Jennings would have to settle for a slinger far inferior to Aaron Rodgers and just hope he sees double digit targets each game. Given the way Thursday looked without him, Green Bay may be willing to bring him back regardless of cost. If not, Cobb and Jones still retain a high speculative value. I'd take Cobb first, but Jones can't be totally dismissed until the situation is resolved.

The wait for Mikel Leshoure is down to one week, as millions of speculators have held on to him for his much-anticipated NFL debut, slated for Week Three. Unfortunately, Kevin Smith looked pretty strong as an all-purpose RB, giving the Lions no reason to rush Leshoure into a significant role. Add the possible return of Jahvid Best in Week 7, and you've got a muddied RB picture reminiscent of New Orleans'. Is there a Darren Sproles in there somewhere? Sure, but it's probably Smith, at least while he's healthy. Best is the electrifying but limited-touch Pierre Thomas, and Leshoure mimics Ingram or Ivory, at the goalline and killing the clock. But none has the sterling health record of Sproles, and each can probably act as an all-purpose back. So all any of them need is a couple of timely injuries to the other two (or even just one) to become a weekly RB2. Unlike most pundits, I don't think Kevin Smith is truly the one to own, but my inherent contrarian nature is at least part of that argument. I put the brakes on Smith because of his litany of injuries, and on Best because of his one-and-done concussion possibility. Leshoure has had a significant injury as well, no doubt, but I'm less worried about his durability than the other two. I think Leshoure comes out slow, but gets the lead job by midseason and rolls as an RB1 into the fantasy playoffs.

Da Bills

Da Bills. That's my big secret for the 2012 fantasy football season. Da Bills.

In my first column of last season, I made note of Pittsburgh's seemingly spectacular fantasy playoff schedule, featuring home dates against Cleveland in Week 14 and St. Louis in Week 16. The Steelers DST disappointed me, however,  recording only 12 and 10 fantasy points in those weeks, scarcely better than the average match-up play.

But I'm going back to the well on this one folks. It can't be dry this time, can it?

Though hardly the dominant DST that the Steelers have traditionally boasted, the Bills imported two critical components to their new-look defense. D-guru Dave Wannstedt was handed the reins to this unit in early January and Mario Williams (one of the most lethal pass rushers in the league) was signed to a massive free agent contract. Those two factors alone would not get me too excited about a DST that was middling at best last year, but Buffalo's schedule does, as it should anyone else who would otherwise have to stream.

The start isn't exactly special, but it ain't bad either: at the Jets, hosting the Chiefs, and then at Cleveland. Regadless of who is quarterbacking the Jets, that there is a turnover on a silver platter, and New York scored exactly one TD in the preseason. I think the Bills have just as much a chance to score a defensive TD as the Jets do of scoring an offensive one. Hosting KC is as good a matchup play as most others in Week Two, and then the Bills go to Cleveland. Facing a rookie QB (in this case Brandon Weedon) is always a good thing.

The midseason doesn't look nearly as rosy for the Bills (including two dates against the Patriots) but the final two months sure do. Miami twice, Indianapolis once, and three successive bone-chilling home dates against milder-weather squads Jacksonville, St. Louis and Seattle in Weeks 13, 14 and 15. And if you're in one of those cooky leagues that insists on playing a Week 17 championship game, you get Sanchez-Tebow again, this time at home. I can't say there isn't some fear of former castoff Marshawn Lynch going all beast mode in his return to Ralph Wilson Stadium in Week 15, but as long as Russell Wilson (or any other relative unknown) is his QB that day, I'm willing to take the risk. Looks like a title-winning DST that is flying well under the radar. I have them in all my leagues and there's a pretty good chance they're a free agent in yours.

Speaking of all my leagues, I have once again made the mistake of signing up for too many. I blame the length of the offseason, and my absolute giddiness to get things underway. I keep thinking about all the opportunities in all the different leagues (I'm gonna get Jimmy Graham in one of them, by gosh!) and thus ultimately end up staring straight a season where every single fantasy-relevant player will be represented either on one of my rosters or one of my opponents' every single week. And that just defeats the whole purpose. It's like playing free no-limit hold 'em online. If you keep going all-in on the first hand every time, eventually you're going to win one of those monster play money pots. But what's the point? (Note to self - keep it to three or four. And drop the league where you have to start a punter. A punter!!!)

I was pretty annoyed with my mediocre showing with last year's season-opening predictions, so I'm not going to do anything nearly as expansive this year. I'll just throw out a couple of my favorite sleepers to see if I can awaken them:

1. Jacquizz Rodgers. You may say he's no longer a sleeper, but his ADP is not reflective of a player anyone is counting on. He's a popular speculative pick, and with good reason. Unfortunately, the preseason did not suggest anything will change this year in terms of usage, so if you pick him early, you may have to wait awhile for the pick to pay dividends. Given the fact that you win the money not in September but in December (when Turner is worn down), Rodgers may be worth a full season roster spot. His upside is on par with Darren Sproles, the 7th best(!) fantasy RB in standard leagues last year, even better in PPR.

2. Mikel Leshoure. Best to PUP, Kevin "Injury" Smith the starter. Recovering from an Achilles injury is not easy, but Leshoure is one ding to Smith away from potential superstardom. The Detroit backfield is Russian roulette at this point in terms of injury risk, and Leshoure is no exception. But he's much cheaper than Smith and will be back much sooner than Best.

3. Randall Cobb. Another popular sleeper, but one for whom enthusiasm has waned recently due to the Packers' commitment to veteran Donald Driver. But weren't Jordy Nelson and James Jones fighting for one spot last year? How did that work out? I say Cobb threatens all the starters' snaps by midseason, although he may still be a hit-and-miss. But when he hits, ohhhhh baby!

4. The Vikings trio of Christian Ponder, Kyle Rudolph and Jerome Simpson. Ponder is gonna have to throw the ball against some of these high-octane offenses he's facing. With AP still on the mend, and with a year under the already mature Ponder's belt, the ground game won't be as much a point of reliance. Lost in many calculations is the emergence of Rudolph as the newest of the red zone beast tight ends (6'6, 265) and the apparent chemistry Ponder found with talented-but-raw Simpson in training camp. Simpson is suspended until Week Four, but should provide Ponder a great additional option once he returns. All three could strengthen your bench considerably, and very very cheaply.

5. Kevin Ogletreee. Okay, I'm cheating on this one as he's already gone off for 100+ yards and two TDs. But I did have him on my most WR-needy team's watch list even before he exploded. The Cowboys have liked him for a long time, but he's never been consistent enough to get much playing time. He inherited the old Laurent Robinson gig as No. 3 receiver, and it looks like it may be the perfect fit. Don't forget that both Witten and Austin were not at 100 percent on Wednesday, so he probably got more targets than he will normally. But he's definitely earned Romo's trust for now, and Romo's good enough to find him with regularity. I would not hesitate to add him via waivers, especially if you are thin at WR.

Just like the last two years, I'll be sounding off in this blog every Saturday morning, a time when there always seems to be a gap in fresh content. And hopefully it won't just be a rehash of stuff from other sources earlier in the week, but rather some unique and interesting insight that might help you get a little edge over your peers this fantasy season.

It's great to be back folks, now let's kick this thing off!