Saturday, December 10, 2011

Wideouts to the Rescue

Last week, I talked about some RBs that might emerge to become playoff heroes, and this week I'll take a stab at the wideouts who might do just the same.

This list begins and ends with Santana Moss. With three straight top five matchups on tap, and no Fred Davis around to steal targets, Moss easily has a chance to be a top 15 WR in the fantasy playoffs. It's not necessarily going to happen, but he'd be very difficult to leave out of my lineup as my third wideout. In a similar situation scheduling-wise is Jerome Simpson, at least for Weeks 15 (at St. Louis) and 16 (vs. Arizona). He's be more of a risk than Moss, but probably carries equal upside. His recent struggles have come against very tough opponents. As Jordy Nelson, Julio Jones and now Antonio Brown have shown, playing second fiddle to an elite No. 1 option isn't necessarily a bad thing as it actually decreases your coverages.

Now if you want a real Hail Mary, try Demariyus Thomas. Last week could be the beginning of a beautiful friendship between he and Tebow, and the two get New England's wildly unpredictable secondary at home in Week 15. I think if Eddie Royal is still out for that game, Thomas is a slam dunk.

This is likely my last column of the season, so I wanted to grade myself on my preseason predictions. How did I do?

The All Mid-Round Team
These are the guys that will not drafted among the tops at their position, but represent the best chance to produce as such in 2011 without carrying the hefty price tag. Feel great about getting them in Rounds 4-6.
QB: Matt Ryan
RBs: Felix Jones and Beanie Wells
WRs: Julio Jones, Mario Manningham and Kenny Britt
TE: Jimmy Graham
Grade: C+. Unfortunately, a bunch of these guys got injured, otherwise it may have been a different story. I was dead on about Graham, but Ryan proved to still be nothing better than a mid-level QB.

The All Reserve Team
These are guys likely to be drafted as reserves that could probably be played safely in any week this season. In my mind, the best just-outside-the-starters to own in terms of insurance and plug-and-play vs. most opponents. Superior depth guys.
QB: Eli Manning
RBs: Mike Tolbert and Brandon Jacobs
WRs: Emmanuel Sanders, Lance Moore and Lee Evans
TE: Brandon Pettigrew
Grade: B+. I whiffed on the wideouts, but the rest were fine, especially Manning, possibly the steal of most drafts.

The All Under-the-Radar Team
I can't believe I'm not hearing more buzz about these guys as viable fantasy plays. Not necessarily as starters from Day One, but depth guys with pretty good potential to fill a gap if needed. Don't forget about them.
QB: Kerry Collins
RBs: Willis McGahee and Dexter McCluster
WRs: Nate Burleson, Harry Douglas and Antonio Brown
TE: Lance Kendricks
Grade: C. The disparity between guys like Collins and Kendricks (useless) and McGahee and Brown (weekly starters) is pretty amazing. Burleson had his moments, but McCluster has been at best a desperation play.

The All Watch List Team
These guys will probably go undrafted in most leagues, but mark my words, they'll be in someone's active lineup at some point in every league before the season is through.
QB: Blaine Gabbert
RBs: Delone Carter and Montario Hardesty
WRs: Arrelious Benn, Titus Young and Denarius Moore
TE: Jared Cook
Grade: C. Apart from Moore's hot streak, these guys should have spent far more time in the free agent pool than on anyone's bench. But I didn't say they were going to be regulars!

The All Dynasty Team
These guys are probably not viable options for this year, but if you have available dynasty stashes for 2012 and beyond, go for it.
QB: Cam Newton
RBs: Taiwan Jones and Jacquizz Rodgers
WRs: Demariyus Thomas, Randall Cobb and Vincent Brown
TE: Evan Moore.
Grade: A-. Newton was a first-year wonder, Brown and Thomas are legitimately playable now, and I still like the looks of the other guys.

The All Overdraft Team
These guys are my predictions for biggest fantasy busts in 2011 based on their average draft position. Let someone else take their chances.
QB: Matt Schaub
RBs: Jahvid Best and Knowshon Moreno
WRs: Brandon Marshall, Brandon Lloyd and Chad Ochocinco
TE: Tony Gonzalez.
Grade: B. Jackpot on the RBs and Ochocinco, but missed badly on a resurgent Gonzalez. Marshall was about right for his ADP while Lloyd and Schaub were only minor disappointments.

My predictions for the top 5 fantasy producers at each position at season's end, in order (standing entering Week 14):

QB: Rodgers (1), Brady (4), Brees (3), Vick (injured), Ryan (8)
RB: AP (5-injured), Charles (IR), Rice (2), McFadden (injured), Foster (3)
WR: Calvin Johnson (1), Andre Johnson (inj), Larry Fitzgerald (9), Vincent Jackson (8), Mike Wallace (5)
TE: Gates (9-injured), Graham (2), Finley (6), Witten (4), Daniels (11)
Grade: B. Injuries were the only thing that got in my way, but that's fantasy football, right? Ryan and Daniels were clear failures, while my biggest omissions were McCoy and Gronkowski.

Grade Point Average: 2.76. Call it a sophomore slump.

Good luck in the playoffs everyone!

Saturday, December 3, 2011

Blood Pressure Rising

I would like to have the personal pride to say my absence last week was inexcusable, but it was Thanksgiving, I was out of town, and my mother-in-law does not have wifi. I'm giving myself a break this time.

Anyway, it's Week 13, often one of the most exciting weeks of the fantasy season as the dividing line for many teams between in and out of the playoffs. One of the weird quirky things about fantasy football vs. real football. (Honestly, since I started playing fantasy football, I usually forget there is a Week 17 in the NFL season.)

I've found few things more thrilling than sneaking into the fantasy playoffs after being on the bubble all season long, and that usually comes courtesy of at least one unlikely wildcard. In Week 13, that will be Kevin Smith, Donald Brown and Marcel Reese. (And the 49ers DST, although as one of the top DST plays this year, that's hardly a wildcard. But against a St. Louis team with A.J. Feeley, the 49ers DST could win the week for an underdog.) Any of those three RBs could emerge as that guy that comes out of nowhere to be a hero in the fantasy playoffs. I love those guys.
(Freakin' Tashard Choice won me the 2008 championship, scoring 20 fantasy points in Week 15 and 17 in Week 16.) Everyone loves those guys, except the owners that are beaten by them. (Sorry Jarod!)

Smith is particularly intriguing, provided he stays healthy. The very limited sample size nevertheless suggests he has the potential to put up numbers better than Jahvid Best in that offense. Brown's ceiling isn't quite as towering, but he's a godsend for someone who has been scrambling for anything resembling a featureback. And Reese, well, you could definitely do worse so long as McFadden and half of the Raiders' receiving corps is out. That is unlikely to last through the playoff weeks, but time will tell.

By the way, whoever scheduled Week 16 for Christmas weekend was an idiot. As if Christmas wasn't already stressful and chaotic enough. At least they put Arian Foster's dream Week 16 matchup against Indianapolis well ahead of time on Thursday, Dec. 22 (so Foster owners have time to enjoy and opponents have time to recover) and most of the rest of the action on Christmas Eve Saturday (none at night, thank you) rather than Christmas Day Sunday. But Saturday certainly won't be the end of the madness, unless your title game miraculously does not feature any of the studs on the Packers or Bears (playing Christmas Night) nor any of those on the Saints or Falcons (playing Monday night.) Part or me actually hopes I'm eliminated before then. A small part of me.