Another one of my man crushes bites the dust.
First, it was Dexter McCluster. Now, it's Titus Young.
The rookie wideout, who has drawn comparisons to Desean Jackson, appears to be in a fantasy freefall since breaking out with five catches for 89 yards in Week 2. In Week 3, that dropped to four catches for 51 yards. In the past four weeks, you guessed it, 3 for 41, 2 for 14, 1 for 14, and finally 0 for 0 last week. It's a very disappointing downward trend for a guy who was supposed to be a kind of Julio Jones lite, a solid second fiddle to an elite receiver in a strong all-around offense.
Seven weeks in, we have enough information to label guys busts or breakouts. Being a rookie, it's tough to label Young a bust, but he's not a guy you can trust anytime soon. Ditto Robert Meachem. Coinciding directly with the return to prominence of Marques Colston and the surprising emergence of Darren Sproles as a truly dominant factor in the receiving game, Meachem's disappearance has left him alongside fellow Saints afterthoughts Lance Moore and Devery Henderson.
It may be just my impression, but it seems as though WRs in general are the least reliable fantasy commodities, which is why I rarely prioritize them in drafts, although there is an at least equally compelling argument against that strategy. The rationale argument accurately suggests there are frequently less than 10 wideouts you can count on to be every week fantasy starts, so why not grab them as early as possible to lock up the more elusive spots on your roster? The Fred Jacksons and DeMarco Murrays occur with regularity every year, so you can always find an RB2 with upside, but a Miles Austin type breakout is much rarer.
I stick with my strategy though, securing my RB spots plus an elite QB before even considering a wideout. By that time, the top 10 are gone and I'm left with a big pile of hopefully more hit than miss. Desean Jackson is the poster boy for this.
But it's not the failed wideout that will sink you, it's the failed RB1. (Failed QB1s are even rarer than Miles Austin type breakouts. You almost always get what you pay for there.) That honor this season belongs to Chris Johnson, although Rashard Mendenhall is making a good case. Throw in injuries to Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Steven Jackson and Peyton Hillis, and you're looking at six of the top 12 RBs not delivering any value close to draft expectations. And RB2s like Knowshon Moreno and DeAngelo Williams are even larger albatrosses if you were counting on one to be a weekly play for you. That's where the Fred Jacksons and DeMarco Murrays can save you if you're savvy enough to draft an insurance policy (Jackson) or lucky enough to hit the lottery (Murray).
Jackson might be the least likely fantasy MVP in history. Arian Foster was at least speculated to be a sleeper prior to 2010, and was usually drafted in the fifth round or better. Jackson was a lost cause, with his great starting stats from 2010 buried behind his advancing age (30) and the still-never-found-promise of C.J. Spiller.
Jackson may still have a ways to catch Aaron Rodgers this year. Another part of my draft strategy is to forego a backup QB when I draft an elite guy early. That gives me an extra roster spot to fool around with, but leaves me very exposed to a potential injury and of course the bye week. I was hoping my sneaky acquisition of Sam Bradford last week was going to pay off in a potential shootout vs. New Orleans, but alas, I'm stuck with Christian Ponder.
Blaine Gabbert was my first choice on the All Watch List team at the start of the season, and he's advanced to the starting position quicker than Ponder, but Ponder was universally tabbed as the most pro-ready of the 2011 draft class and now he'll get the chance to show it. Given the way Donovan McNabb has been fading it terms of effectiveness, this change can only be good news for the Vikings skill players. Perhaps Percy Harvin will finally emerge as the dominant wildcard wideout he's always been projected to be.
Sneaky Plays
I'm going to dip my toe in a little bit once more. No specifics, but I do expect these guys to be very playable with good upside this week, significantly exceeding their weekly season average:
Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown: I actually think both will have decent fantasy days even if Hines Ward plays. This has the makings of the highest scoring contest of the weekend.
Evan Moore and Greg Little: The switch is very close to being flipped in their favor and the lack of alternatives this week could force that switch now.
Jabar Gaffney: Like Moore and Little, the lack of options bumps him up. And he's got a better matchup than those guys.
Pierre Thomas: On name alone, he's not a sneaky play. But he didn't get his first double digit total of the season until just last week. This will be his second, with his highest ceiling of the year.
Saturday, October 29, 2011
Saturday, October 22, 2011
Sneaking up on Sam Bradford
Entering the season as a QB2 with high upside, St. Louis' Sam Bradford was consistently drafted as one of the most attractive No. 2 fantasy quarterbacks. Through five games, it hasn't exactly worked out that way as he has only three TD passes. He's only throw two picks, but he's fumbled seven times and been sacked 21 times. Clearly, his greatest asset as a fantasy player is as an attractive opponent for any DST. And while that trend may continue, I also think he'll turn things around for himself now that he has a true No. 1 receiver in Brandon Lloyd as well as former favorite Mark Clayton re-entering the fold soon after starting the season on the PUP list.
Now I'm not recommending plugging him in there this week, especially with his highly questionable status due to a high ankle sprain, but how about next week in what is sure to be a pass-happy shootout at home against New Orleans? I consider him to be one of the best buy-low candidates in the biz, and possibly even available on your waiver wire. His ownership numbers are steadily dwindling, certainly below his potential. Unfortunately, the bye weeks are a tough time to be speculating, but if you've got the spot, he's still a potential homerun, especially in a deep keeper league. If you're going in circles at QB (with a guy like Matt Ryan, for example) and you missed on Tebow, Bradford may be the perfect complementary guy. Don't look to him for this year's playoffs though, as he draws a stingy Bengals pass defense in Week 15 and then has a nightmare trip to what is sure to be a bitterly cold Pittsburgh in Week 16.
You want a favorable fantasy playoff schedule? Try Aaron Rodgers - home dates against Oakland and Chicago (both struggling against the pass) and a trip to Kansas City in weeks 14 through 16. As if he wasn't a difference maker enough already. That's almost unfair to the rest of your pool. No chance you're going to trade for him now - just hope you don't have to face him when it really counts.
The Best Strategy
As mentioned at the start of the season, the Peyton Manning injury ranks among the highest ever in terms of overall fantasy impact (basically sinking all the boats in the Indy offense) but the Jahvid Best concussion is up there. He is quietly the third-most targeted RB, behind only Darren Sproles and Matt Forte, and actually ahead of Ray Rice. Perhaps more importantly, he's also the third-most targeted player in the Detroit offense, behind Megatron and Brandon Pettigrew (a very good buy right now) and adds a dimension that requires a great deal of defensive attention. The Detroit offense will have to be simplified without him, but it remains to be seen how that will be played out. It could lead to even more passing attempts in an offense that is already heavily skewed towards the air game. Some of Best's targets could head the way of Nate Burleson or Titus Young, thus far forgotten fantasy commodities. But it could also mean less success for Matt Stafford if he has no running game to distract the defense and no consistent outlet pass available.
One thing is for sure - Maurice Morris is very fantasy relevant for the time being, and possibly well through the rest of the season if Best's concussion proves lingering. He's experienced in the Lions' system and trusted by the coaching staff, and has virtually no competition for carries with Jerome Harrison knocked out as well. Keiland Williams is basically a Hail Mary that could vulture some touchdowns, but we said that about Peyton Hillis a few years ago and look what happened there. Word out of Detroit practice is that Williams is getting first-team reps alongside Morris. Desperate owners can add Williams if they missed on Morris and just see what happens this week. Williams was exceptional in a two-game stint as Washington's featureback last year. My money is on Best being out awhile and both backs having a good deal of risk-reward value. My money is also on Mikel Leshoure getting at least as many snaps next year as Best with elite value if Best goes down again. Dynasty owners, take note!
Irrational Kicker Crush
I hate kickers. They're totally unpredictable, thus capable of winning or losing you any given week. That said, I am an irrational fan of Sebastian Janikowski. There are actually a lot of good consistent options this year, which is unusual, but I'm married to the guy. So much so that I'm actually considering stashing him even if he's injured. That would be a major fantasy faux-pas. But his ability to put up a monster-long field goal (or two, or three) makes him an every week play with big upside in my mind. Keeping him also prevents me from having to do the too often fruitless weekly research required to stream kickers. If for some reason you feel the same way, and for some reason have an extra spot sitting there during these trying weeks, this could be your cue to snatch him off the waiver wire as his current owner may not. Just something to keep in mind.
This brings me to another point. Along with all the other "nevers" associated with fantasy kickers, never waste a priority waiver claim on a kicker.
A Word on Waivers
Having a general strategy for how to use your waivers will go a long way towards consistent success, and make it easier for you to decide each week. Some people use waivers like they use the bathroom - when you need to go, you go. Nothing sophisticated about that, making it simple to use a top waiver priority on a kicker if you're streaming, or your guy is on a bye. Certainly not my strategy, but a very easy one to use.
Obviously, it depends on your settings, but generally a high waiver priority is something to be cherished for a special occasion. Either for an obvious high-end add, or a one-week asset that you can play ahead of that week's opponent, who likely would have grabbed him had you not. And by high waiver priority, I mean top third of the total pool. If you have such a pick, and there is nothing obvious out there, save it, and hope someone gets careless and drops something better. Then you have a better opportunity to pounce.
The inverse is true if you have a low waiver priority (bottom third of total pool). If you do, you aren't going to advance high enough to make a claim for someone else's bad drop, so don't bother waiting. Put in all your claims ahead of time and enjoy the results. The only exception to this might be late in the season when you're battling one particular other owner, and you want to make sure you stay ahead of him in the claim order. Then you really have to pick your spots.
If you're in the middle third of the waiver priority order, there are any number of ways you can go. Certainly critical needs can dictate using up mid-level claims. but pay attention to the fantasy skills of the other owners in your pool. If they're all savvy, you're not going to have too many opportunities for bad drops, so trying to advance in the order is very unlikely to help you. If you're playing with a bunch of idiots though, not only will there be repeated bad drops, but some of the guys ahead of you in the order at any time may not even notice them. I find playing with idiots kills the sport of it though, and rarely do I last in leagues such as those.
Now I'm not recommending plugging him in there this week, especially with his highly questionable status due to a high ankle sprain, but how about next week in what is sure to be a pass-happy shootout at home against New Orleans? I consider him to be one of the best buy-low candidates in the biz, and possibly even available on your waiver wire. His ownership numbers are steadily dwindling, certainly below his potential. Unfortunately, the bye weeks are a tough time to be speculating, but if you've got the spot, he's still a potential homerun, especially in a deep keeper league. If you're going in circles at QB (with a guy like Matt Ryan, for example) and you missed on Tebow, Bradford may be the perfect complementary guy. Don't look to him for this year's playoffs though, as he draws a stingy Bengals pass defense in Week 15 and then has a nightmare trip to what is sure to be a bitterly cold Pittsburgh in Week 16.
You want a favorable fantasy playoff schedule? Try Aaron Rodgers - home dates against Oakland and Chicago (both struggling against the pass) and a trip to Kansas City in weeks 14 through 16. As if he wasn't a difference maker enough already. That's almost unfair to the rest of your pool. No chance you're going to trade for him now - just hope you don't have to face him when it really counts.
The Best Strategy
As mentioned at the start of the season, the Peyton Manning injury ranks among the highest ever in terms of overall fantasy impact (basically sinking all the boats in the Indy offense) but the Jahvid Best concussion is up there. He is quietly the third-most targeted RB, behind only Darren Sproles and Matt Forte, and actually ahead of Ray Rice. Perhaps more importantly, he's also the third-most targeted player in the Detroit offense, behind Megatron and Brandon Pettigrew (a very good buy right now) and adds a dimension that requires a great deal of defensive attention. The Detroit offense will have to be simplified without him, but it remains to be seen how that will be played out. It could lead to even more passing attempts in an offense that is already heavily skewed towards the air game. Some of Best's targets could head the way of Nate Burleson or Titus Young, thus far forgotten fantasy commodities. But it could also mean less success for Matt Stafford if he has no running game to distract the defense and no consistent outlet pass available.
One thing is for sure - Maurice Morris is very fantasy relevant for the time being, and possibly well through the rest of the season if Best's concussion proves lingering. He's experienced in the Lions' system and trusted by the coaching staff, and has virtually no competition for carries with Jerome Harrison knocked out as well. Keiland Williams is basically a Hail Mary that could vulture some touchdowns, but we said that about Peyton Hillis a few years ago and look what happened there. Word out of Detroit practice is that Williams is getting first-team reps alongside Morris. Desperate owners can add Williams if they missed on Morris and just see what happens this week. Williams was exceptional in a two-game stint as Washington's featureback last year. My money is on Best being out awhile and both backs having a good deal of risk-reward value. My money is also on Mikel Leshoure getting at least as many snaps next year as Best with elite value if Best goes down again. Dynasty owners, take note!
Irrational Kicker Crush
I hate kickers. They're totally unpredictable, thus capable of winning or losing you any given week. That said, I am an irrational fan of Sebastian Janikowski. There are actually a lot of good consistent options this year, which is unusual, but I'm married to the guy. So much so that I'm actually considering stashing him even if he's injured. That would be a major fantasy faux-pas. But his ability to put up a monster-long field goal (or two, or three) makes him an every week play with big upside in my mind. Keeping him also prevents me from having to do the too often fruitless weekly research required to stream kickers. If for some reason you feel the same way, and for some reason have an extra spot sitting there during these trying weeks, this could be your cue to snatch him off the waiver wire as his current owner may not. Just something to keep in mind.
This brings me to another point. Along with all the other "nevers" associated with fantasy kickers, never waste a priority waiver claim on a kicker.
A Word on Waivers
Having a general strategy for how to use your waivers will go a long way towards consistent success, and make it easier for you to decide each week. Some people use waivers like they use the bathroom - when you need to go, you go. Nothing sophisticated about that, making it simple to use a top waiver priority on a kicker if you're streaming, or your guy is on a bye. Certainly not my strategy, but a very easy one to use.
Obviously, it depends on your settings, but generally a high waiver priority is something to be cherished for a special occasion. Either for an obvious high-end add, or a one-week asset that you can play ahead of that week's opponent, who likely would have grabbed him had you not. And by high waiver priority, I mean top third of the total pool. If you have such a pick, and there is nothing obvious out there, save it, and hope someone gets careless and drops something better. Then you have a better opportunity to pounce.
The inverse is true if you have a low waiver priority (bottom third of total pool). If you do, you aren't going to advance high enough to make a claim for someone else's bad drop, so don't bother waiting. Put in all your claims ahead of time and enjoy the results. The only exception to this might be late in the season when you're battling one particular other owner, and you want to make sure you stay ahead of him in the claim order. Then you really have to pick your spots.
If you're in the middle third of the waiver priority order, there are any number of ways you can go. Certainly critical needs can dictate using up mid-level claims. but pay attention to the fantasy skills of the other owners in your pool. If they're all savvy, you're not going to have too many opportunities for bad drops, so trying to advance in the order is very unlikely to help you. If you're playing with a bunch of idiots though, not only will there be repeated bad drops, but some of the guys ahead of you in the order at any time may not even notice them. I find playing with idiots kills the sport of it though, and rarely do I last in leagues such as those.
Saturday, October 15, 2011
Abandon Ship!
OK, I admit it. I dropped Dexter McCluster.
After he was overshadowed by Jackie Battle(!?) in last week's golden opportunity against Indianapolis, I'm convinced he's not worth a roster spot during the bye weeks, despite having dual position eligibility. He's just not anything more than a lottery ticket and/or desperation play, similar to several available on the waiver wire in any given week. I would not be at all surprised if he re-emerged later this season (remember Jamaal Charles a few years ago?) especially if a coaching change occurs, but for the time being, he's not going to help you much. Keep him on your watch list, but don't bother rostering him.
Unfortunately, this is the time of year when you have to make critical decisions like these, going against your own early-season gut feelings or even against what seems like better judgement. The Colts are loaded with these. Austin Collie has already been dropped in a ton of leagues, and Dallas Clark is next. Possibly even Joseph Addai given last season's example of a lingering injury. And for those of you who drafted and are still clinging to Peyton Manning? Very tough call, very dependent on your record and alternatives.
Just in time for the bye weeks, we've got another deep waiver week sprinkled with RBs and WRs, but headlined by a quarterback of course in Tim Tebow. In general, I'm not a fan of his as a either a real-life NFL QB or as a reliable fantasy asset, but it's impossible to deny the unique value his rushing skills bring to table. I'm just worried about those days when he gets mauled by a smart defense and commits four turnovers. That happens to even the best, but I just think it's much more likely to happen to Tebow. And without giant passing numbers to make up for his errors, he will certainly have negative days, a scary proposition for the most important position on your team. I really think that unless you're in a cloudy QB situation or in a relatively deep keeper league, Tebow is not worth much to you and isn't the smartest use of a high waiver spot. But he is an extremely intriguing lottery ticket.
His effect on RBs McGahee and Moreno will be fascinating. Like Cam Newton in Carolina, he's his own goal-line back, which seems a much greater punch to the gut of McGahee than Moreno, who hasn't sniffed that duty anyway. Moreno, possibly the biggest bust of the season so far, amazingly did not receive a single carry last week, but salvaged his day with a long catch-and-run TD for anyone who was desperate and played him. Going forward, he may actually see a few more dumpoffs from Tebow, but it looks like he's almost useless barring a McGahee injury, which is not an unlikely scenario. Still tough to sit on him through the bye weeks though.
More news out of Denver was the apparent trade availability of No. 1 wideout Brandon Lloyd, who was going to take a fantasy hit with Tebow under center anyway. Lloyd owners should be happy if he leaves, and vultures may elect to pounce on a choice of Eddie Royal or Demariyus Thomas as new options there. Royal is actually probably a solid option as a slot/possession receiver for Tebow, whereas Thomas, despite loaded with talent, is probably not ready for a weekly fantasy role just yet, fresh back from injury and with still a lot of work to do to develop chemistry with Tebow. Upside, sure, and there is very little that would surprise me about Tebow at this point. But I wouldn't bet on it.
Ahead of Royal and Thomas on the WR waiver wire this week were James Jones, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Greg Little. In Jones, you're getting the equivalent of somewhere between Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson, a guy who will have his targets and big days, but is far from a guaranteed producer. Decent bye week play with good upside, but not a guy you want to have to rely on every week. Heyward-Bey is a total hit or miss, and with two hits in a row, the former Top 10 pick is quickly becoming a darling in fantasy circles after two seasons of near total irrelevance. Little is still a mystery, but is expected to see a bump in snaps and targets and has the skill set to do something special with more opportunities. All three are solid substitutions for your regulars and any could emerge down the stretch as fantasy playoff assets.
At RB, take your pick. It's deep, yes, but far from dynamic, as most of them carry big question marks about actual workload. Addai's injury makes Delone Carter AND Donald Brown technically viable in the short-term, although it's hard to expect much even if you are able to decide which is the better play. If BenJarvus Green-Ellis sits, Stevan Ridley will be an intriguing sneaky play, but Danny Woodhead might be back as well, capping the ceiling for either. Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer are only absolute desperation plays with Rashard Mendenhall back, but he's not going to get all the carries. Ryan Torain and Jackie Battle could continue to produce like RB2s, or disappear in favor of a hotter hand.
The only sure workhorse out of these in Week 6 is Earnest Graham, so he's the smartest choice for someone with no viable option at RB. He'll probably get the gig for at least a couple of weeks, and was actually fantasy-serviceable as the third-down back before Blount went down, so he should remain that after Blount's return. I like him quite a bit for the bye weeks, and as a 4th or 5th RB after if you still want the insurance depth.
Sneaky Plays Scorecard
Dexter McCluster
Prediction: 70+ all-purpose yards and a touchdown.
Actual: 5 touches, 18 all-purpose yards
Ouch. I really didn't see that coming. Head coach Todd Haley hinted at working Jackie Battle in more and he wasn't kidding.
Stevan Ridley
Prediction: 70+ yards, 1 TD.
Actual: 7 carries, 13 yards
Double ouch. My radar was way off on both McCluster and Ridley.
Shonn Greene
Prediction: 20+ carries, 100+ yards, 1 TD.
Actual: 21 carries, 83 yards, 1 TD. A little short on yardage, but otherwise fine. This one was easier to predict because of Rex Ryan's proclamation of the ground-and-pound, but it was nevertheless pleasant to see Greene return to fantasy relevance.
My sneaky plays have gotten progressively worse over the course of the season, so I think I'll have to tone it down until my luck changes!
After he was overshadowed by Jackie Battle(!?) in last week's golden opportunity against Indianapolis, I'm convinced he's not worth a roster spot during the bye weeks, despite having dual position eligibility. He's just not anything more than a lottery ticket and/or desperation play, similar to several available on the waiver wire in any given week. I would not be at all surprised if he re-emerged later this season (remember Jamaal Charles a few years ago?) especially if a coaching change occurs, but for the time being, he's not going to help you much. Keep him on your watch list, but don't bother rostering him.
Unfortunately, this is the time of year when you have to make critical decisions like these, going against your own early-season gut feelings or even against what seems like better judgement. The Colts are loaded with these. Austin Collie has already been dropped in a ton of leagues, and Dallas Clark is next. Possibly even Joseph Addai given last season's example of a lingering injury. And for those of you who drafted and are still clinging to Peyton Manning? Very tough call, very dependent on your record and alternatives.
Just in time for the bye weeks, we've got another deep waiver week sprinkled with RBs and WRs, but headlined by a quarterback of course in Tim Tebow. In general, I'm not a fan of his as a either a real-life NFL QB or as a reliable fantasy asset, but it's impossible to deny the unique value his rushing skills bring to table. I'm just worried about those days when he gets mauled by a smart defense and commits four turnovers. That happens to even the best, but I just think it's much more likely to happen to Tebow. And without giant passing numbers to make up for his errors, he will certainly have negative days, a scary proposition for the most important position on your team. I really think that unless you're in a cloudy QB situation or in a relatively deep keeper league, Tebow is not worth much to you and isn't the smartest use of a high waiver spot. But he is an extremely intriguing lottery ticket.
His effect on RBs McGahee and Moreno will be fascinating. Like Cam Newton in Carolina, he's his own goal-line back, which seems a much greater punch to the gut of McGahee than Moreno, who hasn't sniffed that duty anyway. Moreno, possibly the biggest bust of the season so far, amazingly did not receive a single carry last week, but salvaged his day with a long catch-and-run TD for anyone who was desperate and played him. Going forward, he may actually see a few more dumpoffs from Tebow, but it looks like he's almost useless barring a McGahee injury, which is not an unlikely scenario. Still tough to sit on him through the bye weeks though.
More news out of Denver was the apparent trade availability of No. 1 wideout Brandon Lloyd, who was going to take a fantasy hit with Tebow under center anyway. Lloyd owners should be happy if he leaves, and vultures may elect to pounce on a choice of Eddie Royal or Demariyus Thomas as new options there. Royal is actually probably a solid option as a slot/possession receiver for Tebow, whereas Thomas, despite loaded with talent, is probably not ready for a weekly fantasy role just yet, fresh back from injury and with still a lot of work to do to develop chemistry with Tebow. Upside, sure, and there is very little that would surprise me about Tebow at this point. But I wouldn't bet on it.
Ahead of Royal and Thomas on the WR waiver wire this week were James Jones, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Greg Little. In Jones, you're getting the equivalent of somewhere between Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson, a guy who will have his targets and big days, but is far from a guaranteed producer. Decent bye week play with good upside, but not a guy you want to have to rely on every week. Heyward-Bey is a total hit or miss, and with two hits in a row, the former Top 10 pick is quickly becoming a darling in fantasy circles after two seasons of near total irrelevance. Little is still a mystery, but is expected to see a bump in snaps and targets and has the skill set to do something special with more opportunities. All three are solid substitutions for your regulars and any could emerge down the stretch as fantasy playoff assets.
At RB, take your pick. It's deep, yes, but far from dynamic, as most of them carry big question marks about actual workload. Addai's injury makes Delone Carter AND Donald Brown technically viable in the short-term, although it's hard to expect much even if you are able to decide which is the better play. If BenJarvus Green-Ellis sits, Stevan Ridley will be an intriguing sneaky play, but Danny Woodhead might be back as well, capping the ceiling for either. Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer are only absolute desperation plays with Rashard Mendenhall back, but he's not going to get all the carries. Ryan Torain and Jackie Battle could continue to produce like RB2s, or disappear in favor of a hotter hand.
The only sure workhorse out of these in Week 6 is Earnest Graham, so he's the smartest choice for someone with no viable option at RB. He'll probably get the gig for at least a couple of weeks, and was actually fantasy-serviceable as the third-down back before Blount went down, so he should remain that after Blount's return. I like him quite a bit for the bye weeks, and as a 4th or 5th RB after if you still want the insurance depth.
Sneaky Plays Scorecard
Dexter McCluster
Prediction: 70+ all-purpose yards and a touchdown.
Actual: 5 touches, 18 all-purpose yards
Ouch. I really didn't see that coming. Head coach Todd Haley hinted at working Jackie Battle in more and he wasn't kidding.
Stevan Ridley
Prediction: 70+ yards, 1 TD.
Actual: 7 carries, 13 yards
Double ouch. My radar was way off on both McCluster and Ridley.
Shonn Greene
Prediction: 20+ carries, 100+ yards, 1 TD.
Actual: 21 carries, 83 yards, 1 TD. A little short on yardage, but otherwise fine. This one was easier to predict because of Rex Ryan's proclamation of the ground-and-pound, but it was nevertheless pleasant to see Greene return to fantasy relevance.
My sneaky plays have gotten progressively worse over the course of the season, so I think I'll have to tone it down until my luck changes!
Saturday, October 8, 2011
Bye Week Madness
The bye weeks are upon us, and that should compel you to do two things: defend your interests and keep an eye out for bargains.
By defending your interests, I mean retaining as much full-season value as possible when planning for the holes that are going to come across your lineup over the next few weeks. It's not an easy field to navigate, but it IS easy to get caught up in filling a one-week need that actually makes your overall lineup weaker in the long run. The good news is that everyone else is going through the same critical decision-making process, and inevitably some will falter, leaving you the opportunity to swoop in and pick up a player that may have been unattainable previously. Retaining a high waiver position comes in especially handy here, so consider passing up average or positionally deep options during the standard process in favor of using the saved pick for the potential home run that some other owner drops out of desperation.
Where you are in the standings should be a significant factor in how you approach the bye weeks. If you are 0-4, you probably don't have the luxury of sitting on your lineup, but chances are it's not worth sitting on anyway. Go ahead and be aggressive on a week-to-week basis until you get back to .500. That means dropping guys that you may have been counting on for depth, an asset you'll just have to ignore if you're struggling. But remember to think ahead - don't drop a depth guy that's going to play for you in two or three critical weeks.
If you're 4-0 (or even 3-1) you can do some very creative things. Above all, if you are confident in your depth and ability to navigate through the bye weeks, start working the trade wires. You are already dealing from a position of strength, and if you find an owner that has a glaring positional hole coming up, you may be able to lift something a little extra off of him. (As with any trade, consider the head-to-head week against that owner before you make a deal. Don't trade an RB2 with a dream matchup coming up against you!)
Another creative option you may consider is just surrendering a week if that strategy could greatly benefit you down the road. If your lineup is stacked, but you have a number of byes in the same week, it's borderline advisable to proceed without filling those holes in that week just so your lineup looks just as strong after the byes. This is risky, because every win is vital in a short season, but it can have enormous benefits. Especially if it enables you to craft an even stronger lineup going forward instead of using a valuable roster spot for what is nothing more than a one-week flier.
Quarter Pole Evaluation
By far, the best guys to have are the ones that are the most consistent assets week in and week out. These are fairly rare. Four weeks in, there are only two WRs that have reached double digit fantasy totals in each: Megatron obviously, and Greg Jennings. (So much for Finley stealing his targets.) Not a single tight end has done that, but the surprising consistency leader here is Tony Gonzalez, with a low of seven points in Week 1, the only week he has failed to find the end zone. Pretty darn good for a guy who has supposedly lost a step. I bought into the logic as well and named him to my preseason All Overdraft Team. I was right on with Ochocinco and Moreno, but I missed badly on Gonzo.
The QBs and RBs have naturally fared a bit better in terms of consistency. High picks LeSean McCoy and Darren McFadden have done exactly what they were drafted for, and Ray Rice has actually topped the 15-point mark in each of the first four weeks, making him my quarter pole RB MVP. The more shocking four-week double-digit RBs are Ryan Mathews, Fred Jackson and Darren Sproles. I had none of those on my preseason All Reserve or All Under the Radar teams, but who did? Granted, there were a few pundits still pumping Jackson as a great RB3 after last season, and one or two even liked Sproles a lot in his new scheme, but none predicted fantasy gold this brilliant. I liked Mike Tolbert, Brandon Jacobs and Willis McGahee as the superior depth guys, and I think all of those have panned out as expected as great backups, but certainly nowhere near Jackson.
The steady QBs (15 or more fantasy points each week) include three of the usual suspects: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and the absolutely incomparable Aaron Rodgers, who has put up four straight 20+ weeks culminating in last week's explosion. Get used to it. Rodgers will win more than one week on his own this season. Not only does he have as many great targets as any other QB in the league, his offensive line is now patched up and he remains as big a rushing TD threat as any RB on the team. The other two QBs excelling in the consistency category are Matthew Stafford and Matt Hasselbeck. Stafford's breakout was widely predicted, but I foolishly submitted to peer pressure and tabbed Matt Ryan just ahead of him in that regard. When in doubt, go with your gut, and my gut said Stafford, so shame on me. Silly as it may sound, Hasselbeck was also on my preseason radar but I did not hype him at all, going instead with Eli Manning as my All Reserve choice and Kerry Collins as my Under the Radar choice. (Good call, genius.) The savvy veteran Hasselbeck, who boasted a history of reasonable and reliable fantasy success, was clearly entering a better situation in Tennessee than he was leaving in Seattle and you had to figure both he and Britt would benefit from the new partnership. I would never have predicted he would succeed much without Britt, but he's already proven me wrong. A round of applause is needed for him and Gonzo, two veterans thrown away in most circles, but I remain as yet unconvinced that Hasselbeck is truly an every-week play. That silvery coach is turning back into a pumpkin any day now.
I'm not sure Cinderella's ride will come to an end this week though, as Hasselbeck draws a Pittsburgh defense that has been average at best through the first four weeks. My golden child DST still has a wonderful playoff schedule to look forward to down the road, but has been pretty disappointing thus far and is becoming a progressively riskier play each week. This week is especially problematic, as Tennessee has been a tough nut to crack for opposing DSTs, including Baltimore, the overwhelmingly most powerful DST so far with a league-leading 14 turnovers, four resulting in TDs. In most leagues, the Ravens have rewarded their owners with 20 fantasy points in every week except Week 2 at Tennessee, when they actually flat lined or even cost their owners a point or two. That's an extremely scary proposition for Pittsburgh DST owners this week. Play with extreme caution and low expectations. For the second straight week, I prefer the opposing DST more than Pittsburgh's own. Houston proved me right last week, so play the Titans with confidence if you have the opportunity. There are a ton of dark horse DST plays this week, so you should have plenty of options even if the best ones aren't available.
The Patriots are not one of them, however, and I'm afraid to even play the stud Jets DST on the other side against the cash register New England offense. Good things may happen, no doubt, but there's just as much chance that the Jets defense will get summarily picked apart. And playing the Patriots DST, even against a Mark Sanchez that looked like a deer in the headlights last week, is a huge mistake. They are just not getting it done in any way shape or form and cannot be wisely played until they show some semblance of life.
Top Running Back for Week 5?
This is shaping up to be a wonderful week for some running backs, and one game will have huge fantasy fireworks on both sides. Tune in to the Raiders at the Texans for the Foster-DMC show starting at 1pm ET. The 2010 version of Arian Foster will be having his first true return engagement and anything short of 120 slashing all-purpose yards and two TDs will have to be considered a major disappointment. Four TDs would not be a shock because there is nothing close to him as an offensive option with Andre Johnson out. On the other side, expect Darren McFadden to grab the spotlight back at every chance and put up similar numbers. The two most thrilling RBs are going head-to-head. It just doesn't get any better.
I'm leaning heavily towards Foster as the top RB for Week 5, but DMC certainly has a shot. So does Ryan Mathews given the diminishing number of healthy options in that offense and Norv Turner's suggestion this week that a lot more touches for him would be highly beneficial. And now that Brandon Jacobs is doubtful for Sunday at home against Seattle, you can count on Ahmad Bradshaw for 25 or so touches in a very favorable matchup. Speaking of which, you've got upstart Fred Jackson at home against the exceptionally generous Philadelphia rush defense. Obviously Adrian Peterson is always a threat to top the charts in a given week, and this week he's home vs. Arizona.
Your guess is as good as mine.
Sneaky Plays
If you're not lucky enough to have one of the RBs listed above, you may need some help. Here are some options for bye week or injury substitutions:
Dexter McCluster: 70+ all-purpose yards and a touchdown.
If there is any week for him to step into the void left by Jamaal Charles, this is it. His last chance before his bye week to show he is something special, and a good opponent to do it against. He's a great risk play for an empty WR spot if you play in a league where he has that eligibility, but also would be fine in the RB spot if he holds true to this prediction.
Stevan Ridley: 70+ yards, 1 TD.
No Danny Woodhead means a lot more carries for the up-and-comer against a surprisingly unintimidating Jets rush defense. Rex Ryan's recent frustration will likely mean a greater emphasis on stopping the run this week, but I think it will be pounder BenJarvus Green-Ellis that takes the bigger hit in that regard, and how can you focus on defending the run when the Pats are way more dangerous through the air? Considered in conjunction with Ridley's strong showing last week, these factors seem to make him an excellent choice as a bye fill this Sunday.
Shonn Greene: 20+ carries, 100+ yards, 1 TD.
He qualifies as a sneaky play this week because he's basically a forgotten man among the high-drafted RBs. He’s gonna get the rock this week, and get it a lot. The ground-and-pound is back, and Greene is the primary beneficiary, especially against a reeling Patriots defense. Expect LT and McKnight to be serviceable as well, with at least five fantasy points each.
By defending your interests, I mean retaining as much full-season value as possible when planning for the holes that are going to come across your lineup over the next few weeks. It's not an easy field to navigate, but it IS easy to get caught up in filling a one-week need that actually makes your overall lineup weaker in the long run. The good news is that everyone else is going through the same critical decision-making process, and inevitably some will falter, leaving you the opportunity to swoop in and pick up a player that may have been unattainable previously. Retaining a high waiver position comes in especially handy here, so consider passing up average or positionally deep options during the standard process in favor of using the saved pick for the potential home run that some other owner drops out of desperation.
Where you are in the standings should be a significant factor in how you approach the bye weeks. If you are 0-4, you probably don't have the luxury of sitting on your lineup, but chances are it's not worth sitting on anyway. Go ahead and be aggressive on a week-to-week basis until you get back to .500. That means dropping guys that you may have been counting on for depth, an asset you'll just have to ignore if you're struggling. But remember to think ahead - don't drop a depth guy that's going to play for you in two or three critical weeks.
If you're 4-0 (or even 3-1) you can do some very creative things. Above all, if you are confident in your depth and ability to navigate through the bye weeks, start working the trade wires. You are already dealing from a position of strength, and if you find an owner that has a glaring positional hole coming up, you may be able to lift something a little extra off of him. (As with any trade, consider the head-to-head week against that owner before you make a deal. Don't trade an RB2 with a dream matchup coming up against you!)
Another creative option you may consider is just surrendering a week if that strategy could greatly benefit you down the road. If your lineup is stacked, but you have a number of byes in the same week, it's borderline advisable to proceed without filling those holes in that week just so your lineup looks just as strong after the byes. This is risky, because every win is vital in a short season, but it can have enormous benefits. Especially if it enables you to craft an even stronger lineup going forward instead of using a valuable roster spot for what is nothing more than a one-week flier.
Quarter Pole Evaluation
By far, the best guys to have are the ones that are the most consistent assets week in and week out. These are fairly rare. Four weeks in, there are only two WRs that have reached double digit fantasy totals in each: Megatron obviously, and Greg Jennings. (So much for Finley stealing his targets.) Not a single tight end has done that, but the surprising consistency leader here is Tony Gonzalez, with a low of seven points in Week 1, the only week he has failed to find the end zone. Pretty darn good for a guy who has supposedly lost a step. I bought into the logic as well and named him to my preseason All Overdraft Team. I was right on with Ochocinco and Moreno, but I missed badly on Gonzo.
The QBs and RBs have naturally fared a bit better in terms of consistency. High picks LeSean McCoy and Darren McFadden have done exactly what they were drafted for, and Ray Rice has actually topped the 15-point mark in each of the first four weeks, making him my quarter pole RB MVP. The more shocking four-week double-digit RBs are Ryan Mathews, Fred Jackson and Darren Sproles. I had none of those on my preseason All Reserve or All Under the Radar teams, but who did? Granted, there were a few pundits still pumping Jackson as a great RB3 after last season, and one or two even liked Sproles a lot in his new scheme, but none predicted fantasy gold this brilliant. I liked Mike Tolbert, Brandon Jacobs and Willis McGahee as the superior depth guys, and I think all of those have panned out as expected as great backups, but certainly nowhere near Jackson.
The steady QBs (15 or more fantasy points each week) include three of the usual suspects: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and the absolutely incomparable Aaron Rodgers, who has put up four straight 20+ weeks culminating in last week's explosion. Get used to it. Rodgers will win more than one week on his own this season. Not only does he have as many great targets as any other QB in the league, his offensive line is now patched up and he remains as big a rushing TD threat as any RB on the team. The other two QBs excelling in the consistency category are Matthew Stafford and Matt Hasselbeck. Stafford's breakout was widely predicted, but I foolishly submitted to peer pressure and tabbed Matt Ryan just ahead of him in that regard. When in doubt, go with your gut, and my gut said Stafford, so shame on me. Silly as it may sound, Hasselbeck was also on my preseason radar but I did not hype him at all, going instead with Eli Manning as my All Reserve choice and Kerry Collins as my Under the Radar choice. (Good call, genius.) The savvy veteran Hasselbeck, who boasted a history of reasonable and reliable fantasy success, was clearly entering a better situation in Tennessee than he was leaving in Seattle and you had to figure both he and Britt would benefit from the new partnership. I would never have predicted he would succeed much without Britt, but he's already proven me wrong. A round of applause is needed for him and Gonzo, two veterans thrown away in most circles, but I remain as yet unconvinced that Hasselbeck is truly an every-week play. That silvery coach is turning back into a pumpkin any day now.
I'm not sure Cinderella's ride will come to an end this week though, as Hasselbeck draws a Pittsburgh defense that has been average at best through the first four weeks. My golden child DST still has a wonderful playoff schedule to look forward to down the road, but has been pretty disappointing thus far and is becoming a progressively riskier play each week. This week is especially problematic, as Tennessee has been a tough nut to crack for opposing DSTs, including Baltimore, the overwhelmingly most powerful DST so far with a league-leading 14 turnovers, four resulting in TDs. In most leagues, the Ravens have rewarded their owners with 20 fantasy points in every week except Week 2 at Tennessee, when they actually flat lined or even cost their owners a point or two. That's an extremely scary proposition for Pittsburgh DST owners this week. Play with extreme caution and low expectations. For the second straight week, I prefer the opposing DST more than Pittsburgh's own. Houston proved me right last week, so play the Titans with confidence if you have the opportunity. There are a ton of dark horse DST plays this week, so you should have plenty of options even if the best ones aren't available.
The Patriots are not one of them, however, and I'm afraid to even play the stud Jets DST on the other side against the cash register New England offense. Good things may happen, no doubt, but there's just as much chance that the Jets defense will get summarily picked apart. And playing the Patriots DST, even against a Mark Sanchez that looked like a deer in the headlights last week, is a huge mistake. They are just not getting it done in any way shape or form and cannot be wisely played until they show some semblance of life.
Top Running Back for Week 5?
This is shaping up to be a wonderful week for some running backs, and one game will have huge fantasy fireworks on both sides. Tune in to the Raiders at the Texans for the Foster-DMC show starting at 1pm ET. The 2010 version of Arian Foster will be having his first true return engagement and anything short of 120 slashing all-purpose yards and two TDs will have to be considered a major disappointment. Four TDs would not be a shock because there is nothing close to him as an offensive option with Andre Johnson out. On the other side, expect Darren McFadden to grab the spotlight back at every chance and put up similar numbers. The two most thrilling RBs are going head-to-head. It just doesn't get any better.
I'm leaning heavily towards Foster as the top RB for Week 5, but DMC certainly has a shot. So does Ryan Mathews given the diminishing number of healthy options in that offense and Norv Turner's suggestion this week that a lot more touches for him would be highly beneficial. And now that Brandon Jacobs is doubtful for Sunday at home against Seattle, you can count on Ahmad Bradshaw for 25 or so touches in a very favorable matchup. Speaking of which, you've got upstart Fred Jackson at home against the exceptionally generous Philadelphia rush defense. Obviously Adrian Peterson is always a threat to top the charts in a given week, and this week he's home vs. Arizona.
Your guess is as good as mine.
Sneaky Plays
If you're not lucky enough to have one of the RBs listed above, you may need some help. Here are some options for bye week or injury substitutions:
Dexter McCluster: 70+ all-purpose yards and a touchdown.
If there is any week for him to step into the void left by Jamaal Charles, this is it. His last chance before his bye week to show he is something special, and a good opponent to do it against. He's a great risk play for an empty WR spot if you play in a league where he has that eligibility, but also would be fine in the RB spot if he holds true to this prediction.
Stevan Ridley: 70+ yards, 1 TD.
No Danny Woodhead means a lot more carries for the up-and-comer against a surprisingly unintimidating Jets rush defense. Rex Ryan's recent frustration will likely mean a greater emphasis on stopping the run this week, but I think it will be pounder BenJarvus Green-Ellis that takes the bigger hit in that regard, and how can you focus on defending the run when the Pats are way more dangerous through the air? Considered in conjunction with Ridley's strong showing last week, these factors seem to make him an excellent choice as a bye fill this Sunday.
Shonn Greene: 20+ carries, 100+ yards, 1 TD.
He qualifies as a sneaky play this week because he's basically a forgotten man among the high-drafted RBs. He’s gonna get the rock this week, and get it a lot. The ground-and-pound is back, and Greene is the primary beneficiary, especially against a reeling Patriots defense. Expect LT and McKnight to be serviceable as well, with at least five fantasy points each.
Monday, October 3, 2011
Sneaky Plays Scorecard
Another subpar week - back to the drawing board.....
Jason Campbell
Prediction: 300+ yards, 3 TDs.
Play instead of: Schaub, Flacco, Romo, Ryan
Actual: 344 yards, 1 garbage-time TD.
The closing score made his line at least respectable. He wasn't far off of Romo and Ryan, and was indeed better than Schaub and Flacco.
Alex Green
Prediction: 70+ all-purpose yards, 1 TD.
Play instead of: McGahee, Moreno, Tate, Green-Ellis.
Actual: 3 carries for 12 yards.
Major miss. Even with the game in hand, the Packers stuck with Starks, probably to see if he can do the job full-time. Starks' performance was more than serviceable in this offense, but hardly explosive or intimidating like I believe Green might be. We'll just have to wait, probably until next year if Starks and Grant stay healthy the whole year. Moreno and Tate were equally valueless, but McGahee and Green-Ellis had very strong games.
Jacoby Ford
Prediction: 75+ yards, 1 TD.
Play instead of: any Saints WR.
Actual: 0 receptions on only 2 targets, but avoided a zero with a nice 30-yard run. That put him in the same neighborhood as the Saints' leading WRs, Lance Moore and Robert Meachem, who had 5 fantasy points each, while Henderson and Colston finished below Ford. Disappointing given the hype and the opponent, but he probably still has a little rust.
Tampa Bay DST
Prediction: 3 turnovers, 1 TD. Low-scoring affair.
Play instead of: Pittsburgh DST.
Actual: 1 turnover, 4 sacks
Well at least I was right on not playing Pittsburgh. The Colts played conservatively, but managed two big scoring plays to Pierre Garcon, making the Bucs a middling at best DST this week.
Jason Campbell
Prediction: 300+ yards, 3 TDs.
Play instead of: Schaub, Flacco, Romo, Ryan
Actual: 344 yards, 1 garbage-time TD.
The closing score made his line at least respectable. He wasn't far off of Romo and Ryan, and was indeed better than Schaub and Flacco.
Alex Green
Prediction: 70+ all-purpose yards, 1 TD.
Play instead of: McGahee, Moreno, Tate, Green-Ellis.
Actual: 3 carries for 12 yards.
Major miss. Even with the game in hand, the Packers stuck with Starks, probably to see if he can do the job full-time. Starks' performance was more than serviceable in this offense, but hardly explosive or intimidating like I believe Green might be. We'll just have to wait, probably until next year if Starks and Grant stay healthy the whole year. Moreno and Tate were equally valueless, but McGahee and Green-Ellis had very strong games.
Jacoby Ford
Prediction: 75+ yards, 1 TD.
Play instead of: any Saints WR.
Actual: 0 receptions on only 2 targets, but avoided a zero with a nice 30-yard run. That put him in the same neighborhood as the Saints' leading WRs, Lance Moore and Robert Meachem, who had 5 fantasy points each, while Henderson and Colston finished below Ford. Disappointing given the hype and the opponent, but he probably still has a little rust.
Tampa Bay DST
Prediction: 3 turnovers, 1 TD. Low-scoring affair.
Play instead of: Pittsburgh DST.
Actual: 1 turnover, 4 sacks
Well at least I was right on not playing Pittsburgh. The Colts played conservatively, but managed two big scoring plays to Pierre Garcon, making the Bucs a middling at best DST this week.
Saturday, October 1, 2011
Will the real Ryan Mathews please stand up?
If you, like me, drafted Ryan Mathews high in a keeper league headed into his rookie year, and accepted the risk of keeping him into this year, the last two weeks have been like manna from heaven. I drafted him with visions of LT dancing in my head. What I got was a lump of coal. Not a Donald Brown lump of coal, but a lump of coal nevertheless. But that has all finally changed. Or so I thought.
A nagging foot injury kept Mathews out of practice Thursday, and with another reliable guy in the wings (Mike Tolbert), why would the Chargers risk Mathews come Sunday? Will he be active? Probably. But not prominently featured like he was last week, when he looked like he owned the field. I think that at least for this week, we're back to close to an even split, with Tolbert getting the call down low.
The value of each for Week 4 is dependent on the state of the rest of the offense. Gates is almost certainly out, and Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd are not 100 percent. If they struggle in the passing game, scoring chances won't be as plentiful, killing Tolbert. If the offense does click, Tolbert should be considered above most average options because he'll probably take at least one in. Mathews should be reasonably productive either way, but not like last week.
Going forward, it's a quandary. Does Norv Turner trust the high-talent hot hand and let Mathews go nuts? Or does he go back to the committee approach he preached in the preseason? I personally love the committee system from a real-life perspective (two different and fresh backs, defense has to constantly adjust) but there's no doubt Mathews is far more likely to put a defense on its heels. The lead-with-your-head Tolbert adds a completely different dimension that doesn't seem to be in line with Chargers football, but certainly represents a unique option on their offensive palette. There is very little doubt that Turner will do whatever creates the best chance for the Chargers to win consistently. We just don't know what that is yet.
A commitment to Mathews would kill my man crush Tolbert, but I'm OK with that. One of the most enjoyable things about fantasy football is the emergence of studs, and Mathews has the potential to be just that. The guy we didn't think had that potential that is proving us all wrong is Fred Jackson.
Currently the No. 3 RB in standard settings fantasy leagues, Jackson has posted triple-digit totals in each of his first three games, and monster 20-pointers in the last two. Now that's a fantasy. I personally believe he will come back down to Earth at some point, but maybe not if Ryan Fitzpatrick maintains his success and the team continues to win. Against New England last week, Jackson looked like Arian Foster, and if 3-0 Buffalo finishes 12-4, Jackson will probably finish with stats like Foster. This is hard to believe coming from a 30-year-old, but the guy keeps himself in notoriously good shape and was exceptional when featured last year, so why not? At this point, C.J. Spiller is absolutely no threat. And if you believe in the potential, there still may be an opportunity to buy low from those who do not.
Jackson's last two games have been in shootouts against Oakland and New England, and those two foes will face off this week in what should turn into another laser show. Expect more great things from Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker. The running back usage will be fascinating, as Stevan Ridley showed some flash last week, but is likely still behind BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead in what could eventually morph back into the least fantasy relevant rushing committee in the NFL. On the other side, it's scary to think what Darren McFadden will be able to do to the Patriots considering what Jackson just did. And given New England's inexplicable ability to defend the big pass, Denarius Moore and even a now-healthy Jacoby Ford should be projected to perform well.
Open Auditions for the RB Draft Class of 2011
Before the start of the season, fantasy owners had to abandon ship on Ryan Williams and Mike Leshoure, at least for one season, much like we did for Ben Tate and Montario Hardesty in 2010. By now, we also know where we stand on Mark Ingram (big timeshare but big upside) and Daniel Thomas (a lot of potential if he can stay healthy.) This may be the week where we get a good look at the rest of the class of 2011.
With Jason Snelling out and Michael Turner struggling a bit, we'll definitely see more carries and perhaps some real explosiveness out of Jacquizz Rodgers. And with Frank Gore hurting, Kendall Hunter will look to build on a solid Week 3 with at least few more looks and many more if he starts to prove more effective than Gore. Ditto Stevan Ridley, although New England will forever be a passing offense with too many options in the backfield.
The guy to really watch this week is Alex Green. A big back (6'0, 225) with good speed (4.45/40), Green has long-term featureback potential although his ceiling this year was supposedly limited to a change-of-pace role at best. I'm not so sure. Grant is out for Week 4, so Green will definitely get a good look behind Starks, the guy everyone else is hyping for a big breakout. Green's situation is somewhat comparable to Starks' last year, so we may have to wait as much as a year for this one to truly pan out from behind Starks and Grant, but this week should be a nice preview. And if it's good enough, he at least enters the conversation going forward for this year in one of the league's top offenses.
The DeMarco Murray machine will have to wait with Felix Jones putting up a good showing last week, but at least he looked better than Tashard Choice. Speaking of guys who used to be assets for the Cowboys, Marion Barber will make his season debut for Chicago this week. The preseason chatter was about him being the goal line back, but I'm not going to believe it until I see it.
DST Paranoia
I love Pittsburgh as a DST play late in the season due to cupcake stretch schedule, but it will be a bumpy ride this weekend. After posting a negative total in the opener at Baltimore, I'm scared to play the Steelers in a similar situation at Houston, especially with Arian Foster returning to the fold. Amazingly, I like the Houston DST more. It was exposed by New Orleans last week, but the Steelers are not the Saints. Contrary to seeming logic, recent season trends have the Steelers as not a bad opponent for a DST, and the Texans DST is on the way up.
Looking for options to plug in for the Steelers, Houston isn't a poor alternative. Washington (at St. Louis) was a popular choice on the waiver wire, but I don't trust them 100 percent, and Steven Jackson is probably back for the Rams. Tampa Bay (hosting Indianapolis) looks like a great choice with Curtis Painter slated to make his first career start. He's got the support of his teammates, but will be suspect under the bright lights on Monday Night on a hostile field.
Sneaky Plays
Jason Campbell: 300+ yards, 3 TDs. This matchup is a textbook shootout and should be played accordingly.
Play instead of Schaub, Flacco, Romo, Ryan.
Alex Green: 70+ all-purpose yards, 1 TD. I think this one's over at halftime, and the Packers see what he's got for them in the future. Obviously far less likely if it turns into a close game.
Play instead of McGahee, Moreno, Tate, Green-Ellis.
Jacoby Ford: 75+ yards, 1 TD. He'll be highly motivated in his first game of the season, and draws the perfect opponent for showing off.
Play instead of any Saints WR. Colston's potential return further muddies the already murkiest receiving situation in the league. Some of them will undoubtedly succeed, but which ones? I give that at least another week.
Tampa Bay DST: 3 turnovers, 1 TD. The Colts' defense has actually stepped up, and the Tampa offense has not, so this will be a grinding, low-scoring affair.
Play instead of Pittsburgh DST.
Adding the "play instead of" increases my risk significantly, and the guys I chose this week are especially bold. I'm tempting fate here, so take these with a grain of salt. This could be the week that my predictions implode, in which case I may cower back to a more conservative ideal.
A nagging foot injury kept Mathews out of practice Thursday, and with another reliable guy in the wings (Mike Tolbert), why would the Chargers risk Mathews come Sunday? Will he be active? Probably. But not prominently featured like he was last week, when he looked like he owned the field. I think that at least for this week, we're back to close to an even split, with Tolbert getting the call down low.
The value of each for Week 4 is dependent on the state of the rest of the offense. Gates is almost certainly out, and Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd are not 100 percent. If they struggle in the passing game, scoring chances won't be as plentiful, killing Tolbert. If the offense does click, Tolbert should be considered above most average options because he'll probably take at least one in. Mathews should be reasonably productive either way, but not like last week.
Going forward, it's a quandary. Does Norv Turner trust the high-talent hot hand and let Mathews go nuts? Or does he go back to the committee approach he preached in the preseason? I personally love the committee system from a real-life perspective (two different and fresh backs, defense has to constantly adjust) but there's no doubt Mathews is far more likely to put a defense on its heels. The lead-with-your-head Tolbert adds a completely different dimension that doesn't seem to be in line with Chargers football, but certainly represents a unique option on their offensive palette. There is very little doubt that Turner will do whatever creates the best chance for the Chargers to win consistently. We just don't know what that is yet.
A commitment to Mathews would kill my man crush Tolbert, but I'm OK with that. One of the most enjoyable things about fantasy football is the emergence of studs, and Mathews has the potential to be just that. The guy we didn't think had that potential that is proving us all wrong is Fred Jackson.
Currently the No. 3 RB in standard settings fantasy leagues, Jackson has posted triple-digit totals in each of his first three games, and monster 20-pointers in the last two. Now that's a fantasy. I personally believe he will come back down to Earth at some point, but maybe not if Ryan Fitzpatrick maintains his success and the team continues to win. Against New England last week, Jackson looked like Arian Foster, and if 3-0 Buffalo finishes 12-4, Jackson will probably finish with stats like Foster. This is hard to believe coming from a 30-year-old, but the guy keeps himself in notoriously good shape and was exceptional when featured last year, so why not? At this point, C.J. Spiller is absolutely no threat. And if you believe in the potential, there still may be an opportunity to buy low from those who do not.
Jackson's last two games have been in shootouts against Oakland and New England, and those two foes will face off this week in what should turn into another laser show. Expect more great things from Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker. The running back usage will be fascinating, as Stevan Ridley showed some flash last week, but is likely still behind BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead in what could eventually morph back into the least fantasy relevant rushing committee in the NFL. On the other side, it's scary to think what Darren McFadden will be able to do to the Patriots considering what Jackson just did. And given New England's inexplicable ability to defend the big pass, Denarius Moore and even a now-healthy Jacoby Ford should be projected to perform well.
Open Auditions for the RB Draft Class of 2011
Before the start of the season, fantasy owners had to abandon ship on Ryan Williams and Mike Leshoure, at least for one season, much like we did for Ben Tate and Montario Hardesty in 2010. By now, we also know where we stand on Mark Ingram (big timeshare but big upside) and Daniel Thomas (a lot of potential if he can stay healthy.) This may be the week where we get a good look at the rest of the class of 2011.
With Jason Snelling out and Michael Turner struggling a bit, we'll definitely see more carries and perhaps some real explosiveness out of Jacquizz Rodgers. And with Frank Gore hurting, Kendall Hunter will look to build on a solid Week 3 with at least few more looks and many more if he starts to prove more effective than Gore. Ditto Stevan Ridley, although New England will forever be a passing offense with too many options in the backfield.
The guy to really watch this week is Alex Green. A big back (6'0, 225) with good speed (4.45/40), Green has long-term featureback potential although his ceiling this year was supposedly limited to a change-of-pace role at best. I'm not so sure. Grant is out for Week 4, so Green will definitely get a good look behind Starks, the guy everyone else is hyping for a big breakout. Green's situation is somewhat comparable to Starks' last year, so we may have to wait as much as a year for this one to truly pan out from behind Starks and Grant, but this week should be a nice preview. And if it's good enough, he at least enters the conversation going forward for this year in one of the league's top offenses.
The DeMarco Murray machine will have to wait with Felix Jones putting up a good showing last week, but at least he looked better than Tashard Choice. Speaking of guys who used to be assets for the Cowboys, Marion Barber will make his season debut for Chicago this week. The preseason chatter was about him being the goal line back, but I'm not going to believe it until I see it.
DST Paranoia
I love Pittsburgh as a DST play late in the season due to cupcake stretch schedule, but it will be a bumpy ride this weekend. After posting a negative total in the opener at Baltimore, I'm scared to play the Steelers in a similar situation at Houston, especially with Arian Foster returning to the fold. Amazingly, I like the Houston DST more. It was exposed by New Orleans last week, but the Steelers are not the Saints. Contrary to seeming logic, recent season trends have the Steelers as not a bad opponent for a DST, and the Texans DST is on the way up.
Looking for options to plug in for the Steelers, Houston isn't a poor alternative. Washington (at St. Louis) was a popular choice on the waiver wire, but I don't trust them 100 percent, and Steven Jackson is probably back for the Rams. Tampa Bay (hosting Indianapolis) looks like a great choice with Curtis Painter slated to make his first career start. He's got the support of his teammates, but will be suspect under the bright lights on Monday Night on a hostile field.
Sneaky Plays
Jason Campbell: 300+ yards, 3 TDs. This matchup is a textbook shootout and should be played accordingly.
Play instead of Schaub, Flacco, Romo, Ryan.
Alex Green: 70+ all-purpose yards, 1 TD. I think this one's over at halftime, and the Packers see what he's got for them in the future. Obviously far less likely if it turns into a close game.
Play instead of McGahee, Moreno, Tate, Green-Ellis.
Jacoby Ford: 75+ yards, 1 TD. He'll be highly motivated in his first game of the season, and draws the perfect opponent for showing off.
Play instead of any Saints WR. Colston's potential return further muddies the already murkiest receiving situation in the league. Some of them will undoubtedly succeed, but which ones? I give that at least another week.
Tampa Bay DST: 3 turnovers, 1 TD. The Colts' defense has actually stepped up, and the Tampa offense has not, so this will be a grinding, low-scoring affair.
Play instead of Pittsburgh DST.
Adding the "play instead of" increases my risk significantly, and the guys I chose this week are especially bold. I'm tempting fate here, so take these with a grain of salt. This could be the week that my predictions implode, in which case I may cower back to a more conservative ideal.
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