I addressed "being prepared" in my last column, but over the course of additional research I noticed a few more things about the playoff matchups. These observations are unlikely to help you, but they are interesting nonetheless.
Arian Foster is going to dominate. While he's always the prohibitive favorite to be the top-ranked RB in any given week, take a look at who he draws in Weeks 15 and 16: Carolina and Indianapolis, two of the most generous rush defenses. That makes Ben Tate an even more intriguing play, especially with the Texans sure to go even more run-heavy under Leinart and the possibility of Foster's workload being strategically limited. I would have no problem playing Tate as a reliable RB2 in both of those games, ahead of guys like Shonn Greene and Cedric Benson. You could conceivably play Foster and Tate in the same lineup in both games and do quite well for yourself.
DeMarco Murray is another guy who has the chance to explode, as he also has two of the top five most attractive opponents for RBs: Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. At this point, it's inconceivable that Felix Jones will return to the starting role but even he may be usable against those two if you don't have a better option.
Tom Brady draws the long straw among the quarterbacks, getting Denver and Miami, but the most intriguing play by far is Tim Tebow. Tebow against the Patriots deservedly maligned defense in Week 15 has the makings of a fantasy gold mine, and the floor is probably very high for both QBs there. You obviously play Brady if you've got him, and Tebow is at least a Top 10 play. Tebow gets another good matchup in Week 16 at Buffalo, and given his M.O., adverse weather is unlikely to diminish his value.
As the quarterbacks go, so too the wideouts, making Wes Welker one of the best playoff option, but we know now not to trust any of Tebow's receivers. Also looking extremely good for the final two weeks (15/16) are A.J. Green and Brandon Marshall. I wouldn't jump on any other Miami receiver ahead of my normal guys, but I would consider Jerome Simpson and possibly Deion Branch for my third WR spot.
The negative side may be an even greater consideration for you, as savvy juggling may be required to avoid guys that will end up as liabilities. For the passing game, Arizona, Philadelphia, St. Louis, San Diego and the Giants all have tough sledding ahead in Weeks 15 and 16. Now I'm not saying bench your studs, I'm just saying don't expect them to BE studs. You MAY consider benching former studs that haven't been so this season, with Philip Rivers and Desean Jackson being the most glaring examples. Among the running backs, I mentioned Steven Jackson last week, but Ryan Mathews has an even tougher draw, including Baltimore in Week 15. And if you were thinking of playing a resurrected Marshawn Lynch, you might want to think again, as he has Chicago in Week 15 and the RB-killing 49ers in championship week.
Saturday, November 19, 2011
Saturday, November 12, 2011
The Boy Scout Motto
Be prepared.
That's great advice for those of you lucky enough to be in contention for the fantasy football playoffs, and now is the perfect time to get the jump on your competitors.
No byes this week, meaning everyone is back to playing their studs. But some may easily forget that there ARE byes next week, involving some major major players. Don't make that mistake. As you are shifting into potential playoff mode, remember you still need to fill any holes for next week before looking beyond.
Conspiracy theorists might have a field day with the Week 11 byes: Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh and Houston. That's a mad collection of fantasy talent, and would have been far greater if not for the Peyton Manning injury. The bye teams will certainly have an effect on a supremely critical late-season fantasy week.
By now, you know what you need to do to navigate pitfalls like that, and hopefully you are set for them. And if you are one of the fortunate ones that doesn't rely on those teams, get your postseason roster ready.
For example, drop Dallas Clark for sure. Even if he's back, the guy will not have the right answers for you in Weeks 14-16 and a matchup play is the safer option. You can safely cut the cord on studs-turned-duds like Clark, Knowshon Moreno, DeAngelo Williams, Joe Flacco and Austin Collie. They're not turning the corner anytime soon, so why hold on? A little more caution is urged for guys like Matt Ryan, Chris Johnson and Mike Williams. They MIGHT turn the corner. And if you own Jahvid Best, well, your call, but I think it's more than safe to jump ship on Manning at this point for those of you who have been desperately clinging to his non-IR status.
If Best ends up gone for the season, there is fertile ground for a running back to excel in his stead. Maurice Morris appears to be No. 1 for now, but familiar face Kevin Smith has been brought back with good reviews. And Keiland Williams is built as a goalline vulture. Tough to decide, but Morris is your first play, with Smith and Williams available for the truly desperate or dart-throwing owners. Another dart? How about Tashard Choice? It's only a matter of time for any RB when Mike Shanahan gets a hold of him. Both Detroit and Washington have reasonably favorable playoff schedules for fantasy RBs.
Which brings me to the most critical point of this entry: look at the playoff matchups now. If you are rotating 2-3 guys through one position based on matchups, plan well ahead. You may not have a good option at third wideout for Week 15, so grab a free agent who is. Steven Jackson owners probably know already they'll be hurting against Seattle, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in Weeks 14-16, but perhaps still have time to construct a crafty trade.
And I've said it before, and I'll say it again - get those DSTs lined up. My preseason prediction for the stud Steelers having the perfect storm of a playoff schedule hasn't exactly lined up in either regard, but they're not the only trick in the bag. Buffalo and Tennessee might very well be available now or in the near future in your pool, and present a wealth of opportunity in the win-or-go-home weeks. The Bills, an unexpectedly strong and consistent DST, visit turnover machine San Diego in Week 14 (although that would be a bold play) followed by home games vs. Miami and Denver in what will likely be defense-favoring weather. The Titans, a former stud DST that hasn't lived up to it this year, may draw big-time redemption in Week 15 at Indianapolis and Week 16 at home vs. Jacksonville, representing two of the most favorable opponents.
That's great advice for those of you lucky enough to be in contention for the fantasy football playoffs, and now is the perfect time to get the jump on your competitors.
No byes this week, meaning everyone is back to playing their studs. But some may easily forget that there ARE byes next week, involving some major major players. Don't make that mistake. As you are shifting into potential playoff mode, remember you still need to fill any holes for next week before looking beyond.
Conspiracy theorists might have a field day with the Week 11 byes: Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh and Houston. That's a mad collection of fantasy talent, and would have been far greater if not for the Peyton Manning injury. The bye teams will certainly have an effect on a supremely critical late-season fantasy week.
By now, you know what you need to do to navigate pitfalls like that, and hopefully you are set for them. And if you are one of the fortunate ones that doesn't rely on those teams, get your postseason roster ready.
For example, drop Dallas Clark for sure. Even if he's back, the guy will not have the right answers for you in Weeks 14-16 and a matchup play is the safer option. You can safely cut the cord on studs-turned-duds like Clark, Knowshon Moreno, DeAngelo Williams, Joe Flacco and Austin Collie. They're not turning the corner anytime soon, so why hold on? A little more caution is urged for guys like Matt Ryan, Chris Johnson and Mike Williams. They MIGHT turn the corner. And if you own Jahvid Best, well, your call, but I think it's more than safe to jump ship on Manning at this point for those of you who have been desperately clinging to his non-IR status.
If Best ends up gone for the season, there is fertile ground for a running back to excel in his stead. Maurice Morris appears to be No. 1 for now, but familiar face Kevin Smith has been brought back with good reviews. And Keiland Williams is built as a goalline vulture. Tough to decide, but Morris is your first play, with Smith and Williams available for the truly desperate or dart-throwing owners. Another dart? How about Tashard Choice? It's only a matter of time for any RB when Mike Shanahan gets a hold of him. Both Detroit and Washington have reasonably favorable playoff schedules for fantasy RBs.
Which brings me to the most critical point of this entry: look at the playoff matchups now. If you are rotating 2-3 guys through one position based on matchups, plan well ahead. You may not have a good option at third wideout for Week 15, so grab a free agent who is. Steven Jackson owners probably know already they'll be hurting against Seattle, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in Weeks 14-16, but perhaps still have time to construct a crafty trade.
And I've said it before, and I'll say it again - get those DSTs lined up. My preseason prediction for the stud Steelers having the perfect storm of a playoff schedule hasn't exactly lined up in either regard, but they're not the only trick in the bag. Buffalo and Tennessee might very well be available now or in the near future in your pool, and present a wealth of opportunity in the win-or-go-home weeks. The Bills, an unexpectedly strong and consistent DST, visit turnover machine San Diego in Week 14 (although that would be a bold play) followed by home games vs. Miami and Denver in what will likely be defense-favoring weather. The Titans, a former stud DST that hasn't lived up to it this year, may draw big-time redemption in Week 15 at Indianapolis and Week 16 at home vs. Jacksonville, representing two of the most favorable opponents.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Thirsty for Thursday
Thursday Night Football is back! Yes!
Now we fantasy junkies have a little fix to tide us over between Sundays. And this week's game is going to be a pretty good one for fantasy followers.
We know Darren McFadden is out, so Michael Bush is an easy play. And ignoring Taiwan Jones also seems logical given his rather surprising (to me) lack of action last week. But where do we go with Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert? I think the ceiling is limited on both because they'll split carries, but it's still a very porous run defense and a charged divisional game. I honestly like either as a starting RB2 this week, projecting at 10-15 points apiece. Slight edge to Tolbert given likely goalline carries and that Mathews is just off an injury, but Mathews could easily rip off a long TD.
For the receivers, Vincent Jackson is the only automatic, but at least five others merit consideration. Denarius Moore was a target hog in Carson Palmer's first start in a Raider uni, suggesting there may be some instant chemistry between the two. Major major upside if true as Moore has shown Kenny Britt-type flashes and Palmer is certainly capable of throwing the ball. Jacoby Ford looked pretty darn good as well, leading the Raider wideouts in receptions, yardage and fantasy points. Vanishing was Darrius Heyward-Bey, but he had put together three straight strong fantasy showings prior to that. If Malcom Floyd is active, he's worth a play as your third WR, and if he doesn't play, you could do worse than rookie Vincent Brown. Brown is best viewed as an under-the-radar dynasty hold, but would be on the radar extremely quickly if he puts up another 79 yards like last week. Today might be the last day to get him for nothing.
Palmer had a strong fantasy day last week, but I'm not buying yet. Backup maybe, but nothing more than a dart as a starter. Philip Rivers finally put up an elite fantasy number last week, but he's been maddeningly mediocre for most of the season. But you have to put him in there again if you don't have a clearly better option and Antonio Gates is the reason.
Either DST would be a desperation play given much safer alternatives like available, but there is at least some upside.
Now we fantasy junkies have a little fix to tide us over between Sundays. And this week's game is going to be a pretty good one for fantasy followers.
We know Darren McFadden is out, so Michael Bush is an easy play. And ignoring Taiwan Jones also seems logical given his rather surprising (to me) lack of action last week. But where do we go with Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert? I think the ceiling is limited on both because they'll split carries, but it's still a very porous run defense and a charged divisional game. I honestly like either as a starting RB2 this week, projecting at 10-15 points apiece. Slight edge to Tolbert given likely goalline carries and that Mathews is just off an injury, but Mathews could easily rip off a long TD.
For the receivers, Vincent Jackson is the only automatic, but at least five others merit consideration. Denarius Moore was a target hog in Carson Palmer's first start in a Raider uni, suggesting there may be some instant chemistry between the two. Major major upside if true as Moore has shown Kenny Britt-type flashes and Palmer is certainly capable of throwing the ball. Jacoby Ford looked pretty darn good as well, leading the Raider wideouts in receptions, yardage and fantasy points. Vanishing was Darrius Heyward-Bey, but he had put together three straight strong fantasy showings prior to that. If Malcom Floyd is active, he's worth a play as your third WR, and if he doesn't play, you could do worse than rookie Vincent Brown. Brown is best viewed as an under-the-radar dynasty hold, but would be on the radar extremely quickly if he puts up another 79 yards like last week. Today might be the last day to get him for nothing.
Palmer had a strong fantasy day last week, but I'm not buying yet. Backup maybe, but nothing more than a dart as a starter. Philip Rivers finally put up an elite fantasy number last week, but he's been maddeningly mediocre for most of the season. But you have to put him in there again if you don't have a clearly better option and Antonio Gates is the reason.
Either DST would be a desperation play given much safer alternatives like available, but there is at least some upside.
Saturday, November 5, 2011
Status and Strategy
You're halfway to fantasy heaven - the football championship.
If you're actually reading this blog then, like me, you have an addiction. And nothing feeds that addiction like success. So if you're 6-2 or better, I applaud you, and I feel bad for your family. If you're 2-6 or worse, I encourage you to continue to make a good fight, and I feel bad for your family.
If you're part of the latter crew, you'll probably have to run the table over the next five weeks in order to make the playoffs. That ain't happening unless you're ridiculously lucky. But that doesn't mean you shouldn't bother anymore. As a courtesy to other owners in contention and to maintain the integrity of competition, continue to make your claims and set your optimal lineup. Winning can still be fun. An added bonus is being able to play some players you like more than others even if they aren't the "best" choices each week. You don't have to throw a game, but you can make alternative choices based on preserving an element of fun for yourself. For me, that might mean playing all the Green Bay Packers in one week. Seriously! That would not be a terrible starting lineup, particularly in a favorable matchup.
(As an aside for those in keeper leagues, stock up now! If you're 2-6 like me, forget about matchups coming up and go directly to next year. As promised, I added Mikel Leshoure as a high-probability lottery ticket.)
If you're in the elite 6-2 or better (and it is elite - in a competitive league, you have to be lucky AND good) take a moment to pat yourself on the back and then get back to business. Your focus has certainly been part of your solid run. Don't make the mistake of switching to cruise control. In your advantaged position, you can trade from a position of power, acquiring a more fitting starter or backup from a more desperate owner without compromising what you've got. You can also consider rostering less-than-obvious handcuffs (Matt Flynn for Aaron Rodgers, for example) for outstanding peace of mind. And if you're streaming through one or more positions, definitely start looking at least one full week ahead so you're not in a waiver fight each week.
For no position is this more effective than for Defense / Special Teams. Streaming there is a very popular strategy, so chances are owners are lining up to make their claims and you're just lucky if you get who you want. Reduce the luck factor. Look ahead to Weeks 10 and 11 now and notice that the Browns are hosting the Rams and the Jaguars back-to-back. The Browns DST hasn't been anything special, but they've done fine against the favorable opponents, and few are more favorable than those.
That also makes Chris Ogbonnaya an even better flyer. His longest run last week was only seven yards, but that was against a stout 49ers defense. Houston isn't much more favorable this week, but next week he should be far more effective against the St. Louis front seven if Hillis and Hardesty are still out. And lost in the mix is that he catches the ball as well as any RB having started his college career as a wideout. (He had eight targets last week!) He's not as physically intimidating as Hillis, but 6'0, 225 ain't small.
Taiwan Jones has to qualify for the short-term replacement list as well with McFadden on the shelf for who knows how long. This is a team built to run, and Jones is actually the fastest RB they've got. I think a lot of people will be surprised at how many carries he gets and how much he does with them. Michael Bush CAN carry the load (he's done it in limited fashion before) but I don't think the Raiders feel that doing that is their best option. I'm predicting no better than a 2-to-1 ratio of carries favoring Bush, and with this team's penchant for the ground game, that means at least 10-12 carries for Jones. I'm also predicting Jones to be the far more effective per-carry guy, but probably because he is able to break off one or two monsters against an unsuspecting Denver defense. Bush is still your goalline back and should have no trouble punching at least one in.
But if you're 6-2, you're unlikely to need either Ogbonnaya or Jones. Those guys are perfect for the 3-5 teams that drafted Hillis or Moreno or a host of other RBs that simply haven't been there.
The 3-5 to 5-3 teams probably have the most fun remaining through the rest of the fantasy regular season. Nothing like a playoff race to ramp up the intensity of each week, particularly when your opponent that week is in the very same race! If you're in that mix, keep doing what you've been doing: optimal combinations, sound reserves and measured risk. You're well past the draft and diamond-in-the-rough stage. You obviously increase your risk if you're on the 3-5 side, but don't go crazy - yet. Like I said, Ogbonnaya and Jones are perfect for you.
If you're actually reading this blog then, like me, you have an addiction. And nothing feeds that addiction like success. So if you're 6-2 or better, I applaud you, and I feel bad for your family. If you're 2-6 or worse, I encourage you to continue to make a good fight, and I feel bad for your family.
If you're part of the latter crew, you'll probably have to run the table over the next five weeks in order to make the playoffs. That ain't happening unless you're ridiculously lucky. But that doesn't mean you shouldn't bother anymore. As a courtesy to other owners in contention and to maintain the integrity of competition, continue to make your claims and set your optimal lineup. Winning can still be fun. An added bonus is being able to play some players you like more than others even if they aren't the "best" choices each week. You don't have to throw a game, but you can make alternative choices based on preserving an element of fun for yourself. For me, that might mean playing all the Green Bay Packers in one week. Seriously! That would not be a terrible starting lineup, particularly in a favorable matchup.
(As an aside for those in keeper leagues, stock up now! If you're 2-6 like me, forget about matchups coming up and go directly to next year. As promised, I added Mikel Leshoure as a high-probability lottery ticket.)
If you're in the elite 6-2 or better (and it is elite - in a competitive league, you have to be lucky AND good) take a moment to pat yourself on the back and then get back to business. Your focus has certainly been part of your solid run. Don't make the mistake of switching to cruise control. In your advantaged position, you can trade from a position of power, acquiring a more fitting starter or backup from a more desperate owner without compromising what you've got. You can also consider rostering less-than-obvious handcuffs (Matt Flynn for Aaron Rodgers, for example) for outstanding peace of mind. And if you're streaming through one or more positions, definitely start looking at least one full week ahead so you're not in a waiver fight each week.
For no position is this more effective than for Defense / Special Teams. Streaming there is a very popular strategy, so chances are owners are lining up to make their claims and you're just lucky if you get who you want. Reduce the luck factor. Look ahead to Weeks 10 and 11 now and notice that the Browns are hosting the Rams and the Jaguars back-to-back. The Browns DST hasn't been anything special, but they've done fine against the favorable opponents, and few are more favorable than those.
That also makes Chris Ogbonnaya an even better flyer. His longest run last week was only seven yards, but that was against a stout 49ers defense. Houston isn't much more favorable this week, but next week he should be far more effective against the St. Louis front seven if Hillis and Hardesty are still out. And lost in the mix is that he catches the ball as well as any RB having started his college career as a wideout. (He had eight targets last week!) He's not as physically intimidating as Hillis, but 6'0, 225 ain't small.
Taiwan Jones has to qualify for the short-term replacement list as well with McFadden on the shelf for who knows how long. This is a team built to run, and Jones is actually the fastest RB they've got. I think a lot of people will be surprised at how many carries he gets and how much he does with them. Michael Bush CAN carry the load (he's done it in limited fashion before) but I don't think the Raiders feel that doing that is their best option. I'm predicting no better than a 2-to-1 ratio of carries favoring Bush, and with this team's penchant for the ground game, that means at least 10-12 carries for Jones. I'm also predicting Jones to be the far more effective per-carry guy, but probably because he is able to break off one or two monsters against an unsuspecting Denver defense. Bush is still your goalline back and should have no trouble punching at least one in.
But if you're 6-2, you're unlikely to need either Ogbonnaya or Jones. Those guys are perfect for the 3-5 teams that drafted Hillis or Moreno or a host of other RBs that simply haven't been there.
The 3-5 to 5-3 teams probably have the most fun remaining through the rest of the fantasy regular season. Nothing like a playoff race to ramp up the intensity of each week, particularly when your opponent that week is in the very same race! If you're in that mix, keep doing what you've been doing: optimal combinations, sound reserves and measured risk. You're well past the draft and diamond-in-the-rough stage. You obviously increase your risk if you're on the 3-5 side, but don't go crazy - yet. Like I said, Ogbonnaya and Jones are perfect for you.
Saturday, October 29, 2011
Vanishing Act
Another one of my man crushes bites the dust.
First, it was Dexter McCluster. Now, it's Titus Young.
The rookie wideout, who has drawn comparisons to Desean Jackson, appears to be in a fantasy freefall since breaking out with five catches for 89 yards in Week 2. In Week 3, that dropped to four catches for 51 yards. In the past four weeks, you guessed it, 3 for 41, 2 for 14, 1 for 14, and finally 0 for 0 last week. It's a very disappointing downward trend for a guy who was supposed to be a kind of Julio Jones lite, a solid second fiddle to an elite receiver in a strong all-around offense.
Seven weeks in, we have enough information to label guys busts or breakouts. Being a rookie, it's tough to label Young a bust, but he's not a guy you can trust anytime soon. Ditto Robert Meachem. Coinciding directly with the return to prominence of Marques Colston and the surprising emergence of Darren Sproles as a truly dominant factor in the receiving game, Meachem's disappearance has left him alongside fellow Saints afterthoughts Lance Moore and Devery Henderson.
It may be just my impression, but it seems as though WRs in general are the least reliable fantasy commodities, which is why I rarely prioritize them in drafts, although there is an at least equally compelling argument against that strategy. The rationale argument accurately suggests there are frequently less than 10 wideouts you can count on to be every week fantasy starts, so why not grab them as early as possible to lock up the more elusive spots on your roster? The Fred Jacksons and DeMarco Murrays occur with regularity every year, so you can always find an RB2 with upside, but a Miles Austin type breakout is much rarer.
I stick with my strategy though, securing my RB spots plus an elite QB before even considering a wideout. By that time, the top 10 are gone and I'm left with a big pile of hopefully more hit than miss. Desean Jackson is the poster boy for this.
But it's not the failed wideout that will sink you, it's the failed RB1. (Failed QB1s are even rarer than Miles Austin type breakouts. You almost always get what you pay for there.) That honor this season belongs to Chris Johnson, although Rashard Mendenhall is making a good case. Throw in injuries to Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Steven Jackson and Peyton Hillis, and you're looking at six of the top 12 RBs not delivering any value close to draft expectations. And RB2s like Knowshon Moreno and DeAngelo Williams are even larger albatrosses if you were counting on one to be a weekly play for you. That's where the Fred Jacksons and DeMarco Murrays can save you if you're savvy enough to draft an insurance policy (Jackson) or lucky enough to hit the lottery (Murray).
Jackson might be the least likely fantasy MVP in history. Arian Foster was at least speculated to be a sleeper prior to 2010, and was usually drafted in the fifth round or better. Jackson was a lost cause, with his great starting stats from 2010 buried behind his advancing age (30) and the still-never-found-promise of C.J. Spiller.
Jackson may still have a ways to catch Aaron Rodgers this year. Another part of my draft strategy is to forego a backup QB when I draft an elite guy early. That gives me an extra roster spot to fool around with, but leaves me very exposed to a potential injury and of course the bye week. I was hoping my sneaky acquisition of Sam Bradford last week was going to pay off in a potential shootout vs. New Orleans, but alas, I'm stuck with Christian Ponder.
Blaine Gabbert was my first choice on the All Watch List team at the start of the season, and he's advanced to the starting position quicker than Ponder, but Ponder was universally tabbed as the most pro-ready of the 2011 draft class and now he'll get the chance to show it. Given the way Donovan McNabb has been fading it terms of effectiveness, this change can only be good news for the Vikings skill players. Perhaps Percy Harvin will finally emerge as the dominant wildcard wideout he's always been projected to be.
Sneaky Plays
I'm going to dip my toe in a little bit once more. No specifics, but I do expect these guys to be very playable with good upside this week, significantly exceeding their weekly season average:
Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown: I actually think both will have decent fantasy days even if Hines Ward plays. This has the makings of the highest scoring contest of the weekend.
Evan Moore and Greg Little: The switch is very close to being flipped in their favor and the lack of alternatives this week could force that switch now.
Jabar Gaffney: Like Moore and Little, the lack of options bumps him up. And he's got a better matchup than those guys.
Pierre Thomas: On name alone, he's not a sneaky play. But he didn't get his first double digit total of the season until just last week. This will be his second, with his highest ceiling of the year.
First, it was Dexter McCluster. Now, it's Titus Young.
The rookie wideout, who has drawn comparisons to Desean Jackson, appears to be in a fantasy freefall since breaking out with five catches for 89 yards in Week 2. In Week 3, that dropped to four catches for 51 yards. In the past four weeks, you guessed it, 3 for 41, 2 for 14, 1 for 14, and finally 0 for 0 last week. It's a very disappointing downward trend for a guy who was supposed to be a kind of Julio Jones lite, a solid second fiddle to an elite receiver in a strong all-around offense.
Seven weeks in, we have enough information to label guys busts or breakouts. Being a rookie, it's tough to label Young a bust, but he's not a guy you can trust anytime soon. Ditto Robert Meachem. Coinciding directly with the return to prominence of Marques Colston and the surprising emergence of Darren Sproles as a truly dominant factor in the receiving game, Meachem's disappearance has left him alongside fellow Saints afterthoughts Lance Moore and Devery Henderson.
It may be just my impression, but it seems as though WRs in general are the least reliable fantasy commodities, which is why I rarely prioritize them in drafts, although there is an at least equally compelling argument against that strategy. The rationale argument accurately suggests there are frequently less than 10 wideouts you can count on to be every week fantasy starts, so why not grab them as early as possible to lock up the more elusive spots on your roster? The Fred Jacksons and DeMarco Murrays occur with regularity every year, so you can always find an RB2 with upside, but a Miles Austin type breakout is much rarer.
I stick with my strategy though, securing my RB spots plus an elite QB before even considering a wideout. By that time, the top 10 are gone and I'm left with a big pile of hopefully more hit than miss. Desean Jackson is the poster boy for this.
But it's not the failed wideout that will sink you, it's the failed RB1. (Failed QB1s are even rarer than Miles Austin type breakouts. You almost always get what you pay for there.) That honor this season belongs to Chris Johnson, although Rashard Mendenhall is making a good case. Throw in injuries to Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Steven Jackson and Peyton Hillis, and you're looking at six of the top 12 RBs not delivering any value close to draft expectations. And RB2s like Knowshon Moreno and DeAngelo Williams are even larger albatrosses if you were counting on one to be a weekly play for you. That's where the Fred Jacksons and DeMarco Murrays can save you if you're savvy enough to draft an insurance policy (Jackson) or lucky enough to hit the lottery (Murray).
Jackson might be the least likely fantasy MVP in history. Arian Foster was at least speculated to be a sleeper prior to 2010, and was usually drafted in the fifth round or better. Jackson was a lost cause, with his great starting stats from 2010 buried behind his advancing age (30) and the still-never-found-promise of C.J. Spiller.
Jackson may still have a ways to catch Aaron Rodgers this year. Another part of my draft strategy is to forego a backup QB when I draft an elite guy early. That gives me an extra roster spot to fool around with, but leaves me very exposed to a potential injury and of course the bye week. I was hoping my sneaky acquisition of Sam Bradford last week was going to pay off in a potential shootout vs. New Orleans, but alas, I'm stuck with Christian Ponder.
Blaine Gabbert was my first choice on the All Watch List team at the start of the season, and he's advanced to the starting position quicker than Ponder, but Ponder was universally tabbed as the most pro-ready of the 2011 draft class and now he'll get the chance to show it. Given the way Donovan McNabb has been fading it terms of effectiveness, this change can only be good news for the Vikings skill players. Perhaps Percy Harvin will finally emerge as the dominant wildcard wideout he's always been projected to be.
Sneaky Plays
I'm going to dip my toe in a little bit once more. No specifics, but I do expect these guys to be very playable with good upside this week, significantly exceeding their weekly season average:
Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown: I actually think both will have decent fantasy days even if Hines Ward plays. This has the makings of the highest scoring contest of the weekend.
Evan Moore and Greg Little: The switch is very close to being flipped in their favor and the lack of alternatives this week could force that switch now.
Jabar Gaffney: Like Moore and Little, the lack of options bumps him up. And he's got a better matchup than those guys.
Pierre Thomas: On name alone, he's not a sneaky play. But he didn't get his first double digit total of the season until just last week. This will be his second, with his highest ceiling of the year.
Saturday, October 22, 2011
Sneaking up on Sam Bradford
Entering the season as a QB2 with high upside, St. Louis' Sam Bradford was consistently drafted as one of the most attractive No. 2 fantasy quarterbacks. Through five games, it hasn't exactly worked out that way as he has only three TD passes. He's only throw two picks, but he's fumbled seven times and been sacked 21 times. Clearly, his greatest asset as a fantasy player is as an attractive opponent for any DST. And while that trend may continue, I also think he'll turn things around for himself now that he has a true No. 1 receiver in Brandon Lloyd as well as former favorite Mark Clayton re-entering the fold soon after starting the season on the PUP list.
Now I'm not recommending plugging him in there this week, especially with his highly questionable status due to a high ankle sprain, but how about next week in what is sure to be a pass-happy shootout at home against New Orleans? I consider him to be one of the best buy-low candidates in the biz, and possibly even available on your waiver wire. His ownership numbers are steadily dwindling, certainly below his potential. Unfortunately, the bye weeks are a tough time to be speculating, but if you've got the spot, he's still a potential homerun, especially in a deep keeper league. If you're going in circles at QB (with a guy like Matt Ryan, for example) and you missed on Tebow, Bradford may be the perfect complementary guy. Don't look to him for this year's playoffs though, as he draws a stingy Bengals pass defense in Week 15 and then has a nightmare trip to what is sure to be a bitterly cold Pittsburgh in Week 16.
You want a favorable fantasy playoff schedule? Try Aaron Rodgers - home dates against Oakland and Chicago (both struggling against the pass) and a trip to Kansas City in weeks 14 through 16. As if he wasn't a difference maker enough already. That's almost unfair to the rest of your pool. No chance you're going to trade for him now - just hope you don't have to face him when it really counts.
The Best Strategy
As mentioned at the start of the season, the Peyton Manning injury ranks among the highest ever in terms of overall fantasy impact (basically sinking all the boats in the Indy offense) but the Jahvid Best concussion is up there. He is quietly the third-most targeted RB, behind only Darren Sproles and Matt Forte, and actually ahead of Ray Rice. Perhaps more importantly, he's also the third-most targeted player in the Detroit offense, behind Megatron and Brandon Pettigrew (a very good buy right now) and adds a dimension that requires a great deal of defensive attention. The Detroit offense will have to be simplified without him, but it remains to be seen how that will be played out. It could lead to even more passing attempts in an offense that is already heavily skewed towards the air game. Some of Best's targets could head the way of Nate Burleson or Titus Young, thus far forgotten fantasy commodities. But it could also mean less success for Matt Stafford if he has no running game to distract the defense and no consistent outlet pass available.
One thing is for sure - Maurice Morris is very fantasy relevant for the time being, and possibly well through the rest of the season if Best's concussion proves lingering. He's experienced in the Lions' system and trusted by the coaching staff, and has virtually no competition for carries with Jerome Harrison knocked out as well. Keiland Williams is basically a Hail Mary that could vulture some touchdowns, but we said that about Peyton Hillis a few years ago and look what happened there. Word out of Detroit practice is that Williams is getting first-team reps alongside Morris. Desperate owners can add Williams if they missed on Morris and just see what happens this week. Williams was exceptional in a two-game stint as Washington's featureback last year. My money is on Best being out awhile and both backs having a good deal of risk-reward value. My money is also on Mikel Leshoure getting at least as many snaps next year as Best with elite value if Best goes down again. Dynasty owners, take note!
Irrational Kicker Crush
I hate kickers. They're totally unpredictable, thus capable of winning or losing you any given week. That said, I am an irrational fan of Sebastian Janikowski. There are actually a lot of good consistent options this year, which is unusual, but I'm married to the guy. So much so that I'm actually considering stashing him even if he's injured. That would be a major fantasy faux-pas. But his ability to put up a monster-long field goal (or two, or three) makes him an every week play with big upside in my mind. Keeping him also prevents me from having to do the too often fruitless weekly research required to stream kickers. If for some reason you feel the same way, and for some reason have an extra spot sitting there during these trying weeks, this could be your cue to snatch him off the waiver wire as his current owner may not. Just something to keep in mind.
This brings me to another point. Along with all the other "nevers" associated with fantasy kickers, never waste a priority waiver claim on a kicker.
A Word on Waivers
Having a general strategy for how to use your waivers will go a long way towards consistent success, and make it easier for you to decide each week. Some people use waivers like they use the bathroom - when you need to go, you go. Nothing sophisticated about that, making it simple to use a top waiver priority on a kicker if you're streaming, or your guy is on a bye. Certainly not my strategy, but a very easy one to use.
Obviously, it depends on your settings, but generally a high waiver priority is something to be cherished for a special occasion. Either for an obvious high-end add, or a one-week asset that you can play ahead of that week's opponent, who likely would have grabbed him had you not. And by high waiver priority, I mean top third of the total pool. If you have such a pick, and there is nothing obvious out there, save it, and hope someone gets careless and drops something better. Then you have a better opportunity to pounce.
The inverse is true if you have a low waiver priority (bottom third of total pool). If you do, you aren't going to advance high enough to make a claim for someone else's bad drop, so don't bother waiting. Put in all your claims ahead of time and enjoy the results. The only exception to this might be late in the season when you're battling one particular other owner, and you want to make sure you stay ahead of him in the claim order. Then you really have to pick your spots.
If you're in the middle third of the waiver priority order, there are any number of ways you can go. Certainly critical needs can dictate using up mid-level claims. but pay attention to the fantasy skills of the other owners in your pool. If they're all savvy, you're not going to have too many opportunities for bad drops, so trying to advance in the order is very unlikely to help you. If you're playing with a bunch of idiots though, not only will there be repeated bad drops, but some of the guys ahead of you in the order at any time may not even notice them. I find playing with idiots kills the sport of it though, and rarely do I last in leagues such as those.
Now I'm not recommending plugging him in there this week, especially with his highly questionable status due to a high ankle sprain, but how about next week in what is sure to be a pass-happy shootout at home against New Orleans? I consider him to be one of the best buy-low candidates in the biz, and possibly even available on your waiver wire. His ownership numbers are steadily dwindling, certainly below his potential. Unfortunately, the bye weeks are a tough time to be speculating, but if you've got the spot, he's still a potential homerun, especially in a deep keeper league. If you're going in circles at QB (with a guy like Matt Ryan, for example) and you missed on Tebow, Bradford may be the perfect complementary guy. Don't look to him for this year's playoffs though, as he draws a stingy Bengals pass defense in Week 15 and then has a nightmare trip to what is sure to be a bitterly cold Pittsburgh in Week 16.
You want a favorable fantasy playoff schedule? Try Aaron Rodgers - home dates against Oakland and Chicago (both struggling against the pass) and a trip to Kansas City in weeks 14 through 16. As if he wasn't a difference maker enough already. That's almost unfair to the rest of your pool. No chance you're going to trade for him now - just hope you don't have to face him when it really counts.
The Best Strategy
As mentioned at the start of the season, the Peyton Manning injury ranks among the highest ever in terms of overall fantasy impact (basically sinking all the boats in the Indy offense) but the Jahvid Best concussion is up there. He is quietly the third-most targeted RB, behind only Darren Sproles and Matt Forte, and actually ahead of Ray Rice. Perhaps more importantly, he's also the third-most targeted player in the Detroit offense, behind Megatron and Brandon Pettigrew (a very good buy right now) and adds a dimension that requires a great deal of defensive attention. The Detroit offense will have to be simplified without him, but it remains to be seen how that will be played out. It could lead to even more passing attempts in an offense that is already heavily skewed towards the air game. Some of Best's targets could head the way of Nate Burleson or Titus Young, thus far forgotten fantasy commodities. But it could also mean less success for Matt Stafford if he has no running game to distract the defense and no consistent outlet pass available.
One thing is for sure - Maurice Morris is very fantasy relevant for the time being, and possibly well through the rest of the season if Best's concussion proves lingering. He's experienced in the Lions' system and trusted by the coaching staff, and has virtually no competition for carries with Jerome Harrison knocked out as well. Keiland Williams is basically a Hail Mary that could vulture some touchdowns, but we said that about Peyton Hillis a few years ago and look what happened there. Word out of Detroit practice is that Williams is getting first-team reps alongside Morris. Desperate owners can add Williams if they missed on Morris and just see what happens this week. Williams was exceptional in a two-game stint as Washington's featureback last year. My money is on Best being out awhile and both backs having a good deal of risk-reward value. My money is also on Mikel Leshoure getting at least as many snaps next year as Best with elite value if Best goes down again. Dynasty owners, take note!
Irrational Kicker Crush
I hate kickers. They're totally unpredictable, thus capable of winning or losing you any given week. That said, I am an irrational fan of Sebastian Janikowski. There are actually a lot of good consistent options this year, which is unusual, but I'm married to the guy. So much so that I'm actually considering stashing him even if he's injured. That would be a major fantasy faux-pas. But his ability to put up a monster-long field goal (or two, or three) makes him an every week play with big upside in my mind. Keeping him also prevents me from having to do the too often fruitless weekly research required to stream kickers. If for some reason you feel the same way, and for some reason have an extra spot sitting there during these trying weeks, this could be your cue to snatch him off the waiver wire as his current owner may not. Just something to keep in mind.
This brings me to another point. Along with all the other "nevers" associated with fantasy kickers, never waste a priority waiver claim on a kicker.
A Word on Waivers
Having a general strategy for how to use your waivers will go a long way towards consistent success, and make it easier for you to decide each week. Some people use waivers like they use the bathroom - when you need to go, you go. Nothing sophisticated about that, making it simple to use a top waiver priority on a kicker if you're streaming, or your guy is on a bye. Certainly not my strategy, but a very easy one to use.
Obviously, it depends on your settings, but generally a high waiver priority is something to be cherished for a special occasion. Either for an obvious high-end add, or a one-week asset that you can play ahead of that week's opponent, who likely would have grabbed him had you not. And by high waiver priority, I mean top third of the total pool. If you have such a pick, and there is nothing obvious out there, save it, and hope someone gets careless and drops something better. Then you have a better opportunity to pounce.
The inverse is true if you have a low waiver priority (bottom third of total pool). If you do, you aren't going to advance high enough to make a claim for someone else's bad drop, so don't bother waiting. Put in all your claims ahead of time and enjoy the results. The only exception to this might be late in the season when you're battling one particular other owner, and you want to make sure you stay ahead of him in the claim order. Then you really have to pick your spots.
If you're in the middle third of the waiver priority order, there are any number of ways you can go. Certainly critical needs can dictate using up mid-level claims. but pay attention to the fantasy skills of the other owners in your pool. If they're all savvy, you're not going to have too many opportunities for bad drops, so trying to advance in the order is very unlikely to help you. If you're playing with a bunch of idiots though, not only will there be repeated bad drops, but some of the guys ahead of you in the order at any time may not even notice them. I find playing with idiots kills the sport of it though, and rarely do I last in leagues such as those.
Saturday, October 15, 2011
Abandon Ship!
OK, I admit it. I dropped Dexter McCluster.
After he was overshadowed by Jackie Battle(!?) in last week's golden opportunity against Indianapolis, I'm convinced he's not worth a roster spot during the bye weeks, despite having dual position eligibility. He's just not anything more than a lottery ticket and/or desperation play, similar to several available on the waiver wire in any given week. I would not be at all surprised if he re-emerged later this season (remember Jamaal Charles a few years ago?) especially if a coaching change occurs, but for the time being, he's not going to help you much. Keep him on your watch list, but don't bother rostering him.
Unfortunately, this is the time of year when you have to make critical decisions like these, going against your own early-season gut feelings or even against what seems like better judgement. The Colts are loaded with these. Austin Collie has already been dropped in a ton of leagues, and Dallas Clark is next. Possibly even Joseph Addai given last season's example of a lingering injury. And for those of you who drafted and are still clinging to Peyton Manning? Very tough call, very dependent on your record and alternatives.
Just in time for the bye weeks, we've got another deep waiver week sprinkled with RBs and WRs, but headlined by a quarterback of course in Tim Tebow. In general, I'm not a fan of his as a either a real-life NFL QB or as a reliable fantasy asset, but it's impossible to deny the unique value his rushing skills bring to table. I'm just worried about those days when he gets mauled by a smart defense and commits four turnovers. That happens to even the best, but I just think it's much more likely to happen to Tebow. And without giant passing numbers to make up for his errors, he will certainly have negative days, a scary proposition for the most important position on your team. I really think that unless you're in a cloudy QB situation or in a relatively deep keeper league, Tebow is not worth much to you and isn't the smartest use of a high waiver spot. But he is an extremely intriguing lottery ticket.
His effect on RBs McGahee and Moreno will be fascinating. Like Cam Newton in Carolina, he's his own goal-line back, which seems a much greater punch to the gut of McGahee than Moreno, who hasn't sniffed that duty anyway. Moreno, possibly the biggest bust of the season so far, amazingly did not receive a single carry last week, but salvaged his day with a long catch-and-run TD for anyone who was desperate and played him. Going forward, he may actually see a few more dumpoffs from Tebow, but it looks like he's almost useless barring a McGahee injury, which is not an unlikely scenario. Still tough to sit on him through the bye weeks though.
More news out of Denver was the apparent trade availability of No. 1 wideout Brandon Lloyd, who was going to take a fantasy hit with Tebow under center anyway. Lloyd owners should be happy if he leaves, and vultures may elect to pounce on a choice of Eddie Royal or Demariyus Thomas as new options there. Royal is actually probably a solid option as a slot/possession receiver for Tebow, whereas Thomas, despite loaded with talent, is probably not ready for a weekly fantasy role just yet, fresh back from injury and with still a lot of work to do to develop chemistry with Tebow. Upside, sure, and there is very little that would surprise me about Tebow at this point. But I wouldn't bet on it.
Ahead of Royal and Thomas on the WR waiver wire this week were James Jones, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Greg Little. In Jones, you're getting the equivalent of somewhere between Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson, a guy who will have his targets and big days, but is far from a guaranteed producer. Decent bye week play with good upside, but not a guy you want to have to rely on every week. Heyward-Bey is a total hit or miss, and with two hits in a row, the former Top 10 pick is quickly becoming a darling in fantasy circles after two seasons of near total irrelevance. Little is still a mystery, but is expected to see a bump in snaps and targets and has the skill set to do something special with more opportunities. All three are solid substitutions for your regulars and any could emerge down the stretch as fantasy playoff assets.
At RB, take your pick. It's deep, yes, but far from dynamic, as most of them carry big question marks about actual workload. Addai's injury makes Delone Carter AND Donald Brown technically viable in the short-term, although it's hard to expect much even if you are able to decide which is the better play. If BenJarvus Green-Ellis sits, Stevan Ridley will be an intriguing sneaky play, but Danny Woodhead might be back as well, capping the ceiling for either. Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer are only absolute desperation plays with Rashard Mendenhall back, but he's not going to get all the carries. Ryan Torain and Jackie Battle could continue to produce like RB2s, or disappear in favor of a hotter hand.
The only sure workhorse out of these in Week 6 is Earnest Graham, so he's the smartest choice for someone with no viable option at RB. He'll probably get the gig for at least a couple of weeks, and was actually fantasy-serviceable as the third-down back before Blount went down, so he should remain that after Blount's return. I like him quite a bit for the bye weeks, and as a 4th or 5th RB after if you still want the insurance depth.
Sneaky Plays Scorecard
Dexter McCluster
Prediction: 70+ all-purpose yards and a touchdown.
Actual: 5 touches, 18 all-purpose yards
Ouch. I really didn't see that coming. Head coach Todd Haley hinted at working Jackie Battle in more and he wasn't kidding.
Stevan Ridley
Prediction: 70+ yards, 1 TD.
Actual: 7 carries, 13 yards
Double ouch. My radar was way off on both McCluster and Ridley.
Shonn Greene
Prediction: 20+ carries, 100+ yards, 1 TD.
Actual: 21 carries, 83 yards, 1 TD. A little short on yardage, but otherwise fine. This one was easier to predict because of Rex Ryan's proclamation of the ground-and-pound, but it was nevertheless pleasant to see Greene return to fantasy relevance.
My sneaky plays have gotten progressively worse over the course of the season, so I think I'll have to tone it down until my luck changes!
After he was overshadowed by Jackie Battle(!?) in last week's golden opportunity against Indianapolis, I'm convinced he's not worth a roster spot during the bye weeks, despite having dual position eligibility. He's just not anything more than a lottery ticket and/or desperation play, similar to several available on the waiver wire in any given week. I would not be at all surprised if he re-emerged later this season (remember Jamaal Charles a few years ago?) especially if a coaching change occurs, but for the time being, he's not going to help you much. Keep him on your watch list, but don't bother rostering him.
Unfortunately, this is the time of year when you have to make critical decisions like these, going against your own early-season gut feelings or even against what seems like better judgement. The Colts are loaded with these. Austin Collie has already been dropped in a ton of leagues, and Dallas Clark is next. Possibly even Joseph Addai given last season's example of a lingering injury. And for those of you who drafted and are still clinging to Peyton Manning? Very tough call, very dependent on your record and alternatives.
Just in time for the bye weeks, we've got another deep waiver week sprinkled with RBs and WRs, but headlined by a quarterback of course in Tim Tebow. In general, I'm not a fan of his as a either a real-life NFL QB or as a reliable fantasy asset, but it's impossible to deny the unique value his rushing skills bring to table. I'm just worried about those days when he gets mauled by a smart defense and commits four turnovers. That happens to even the best, but I just think it's much more likely to happen to Tebow. And without giant passing numbers to make up for his errors, he will certainly have negative days, a scary proposition for the most important position on your team. I really think that unless you're in a cloudy QB situation or in a relatively deep keeper league, Tebow is not worth much to you and isn't the smartest use of a high waiver spot. But he is an extremely intriguing lottery ticket.
His effect on RBs McGahee and Moreno will be fascinating. Like Cam Newton in Carolina, he's his own goal-line back, which seems a much greater punch to the gut of McGahee than Moreno, who hasn't sniffed that duty anyway. Moreno, possibly the biggest bust of the season so far, amazingly did not receive a single carry last week, but salvaged his day with a long catch-and-run TD for anyone who was desperate and played him. Going forward, he may actually see a few more dumpoffs from Tebow, but it looks like he's almost useless barring a McGahee injury, which is not an unlikely scenario. Still tough to sit on him through the bye weeks though.
More news out of Denver was the apparent trade availability of No. 1 wideout Brandon Lloyd, who was going to take a fantasy hit with Tebow under center anyway. Lloyd owners should be happy if he leaves, and vultures may elect to pounce on a choice of Eddie Royal or Demariyus Thomas as new options there. Royal is actually probably a solid option as a slot/possession receiver for Tebow, whereas Thomas, despite loaded with talent, is probably not ready for a weekly fantasy role just yet, fresh back from injury and with still a lot of work to do to develop chemistry with Tebow. Upside, sure, and there is very little that would surprise me about Tebow at this point. But I wouldn't bet on it.
Ahead of Royal and Thomas on the WR waiver wire this week were James Jones, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Greg Little. In Jones, you're getting the equivalent of somewhere between Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson, a guy who will have his targets and big days, but is far from a guaranteed producer. Decent bye week play with good upside, but not a guy you want to have to rely on every week. Heyward-Bey is a total hit or miss, and with two hits in a row, the former Top 10 pick is quickly becoming a darling in fantasy circles after two seasons of near total irrelevance. Little is still a mystery, but is expected to see a bump in snaps and targets and has the skill set to do something special with more opportunities. All three are solid substitutions for your regulars and any could emerge down the stretch as fantasy playoff assets.
At RB, take your pick. It's deep, yes, but far from dynamic, as most of them carry big question marks about actual workload. Addai's injury makes Delone Carter AND Donald Brown technically viable in the short-term, although it's hard to expect much even if you are able to decide which is the better play. If BenJarvus Green-Ellis sits, Stevan Ridley will be an intriguing sneaky play, but Danny Woodhead might be back as well, capping the ceiling for either. Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer are only absolute desperation plays with Rashard Mendenhall back, but he's not going to get all the carries. Ryan Torain and Jackie Battle could continue to produce like RB2s, or disappear in favor of a hotter hand.
The only sure workhorse out of these in Week 6 is Earnest Graham, so he's the smartest choice for someone with no viable option at RB. He'll probably get the gig for at least a couple of weeks, and was actually fantasy-serviceable as the third-down back before Blount went down, so he should remain that after Blount's return. I like him quite a bit for the bye weeks, and as a 4th or 5th RB after if you still want the insurance depth.
Sneaky Plays Scorecard
Dexter McCluster
Prediction: 70+ all-purpose yards and a touchdown.
Actual: 5 touches, 18 all-purpose yards
Ouch. I really didn't see that coming. Head coach Todd Haley hinted at working Jackie Battle in more and he wasn't kidding.
Stevan Ridley
Prediction: 70+ yards, 1 TD.
Actual: 7 carries, 13 yards
Double ouch. My radar was way off on both McCluster and Ridley.
Shonn Greene
Prediction: 20+ carries, 100+ yards, 1 TD.
Actual: 21 carries, 83 yards, 1 TD. A little short on yardage, but otherwise fine. This one was easier to predict because of Rex Ryan's proclamation of the ground-and-pound, but it was nevertheless pleasant to see Greene return to fantasy relevance.
My sneaky plays have gotten progressively worse over the course of the season, so I think I'll have to tone it down until my luck changes!
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