Where Have All the Tight Ends Gone?

At the start of the season, there were two tight ends that were considered above (or at worst alongside) the WR1 tier: Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. After that, there was at least a full handful of mid-rounders and another full handful of late-rounders, many hyped as the next Graham or Gronk. A frenzied shopping spree ensued over the first week or two of the season, completely exhausting the supply. But why?

As it turns out, Gronk and Graham are indeed among the best, but only with about 10 fantasy points per game, well below the top WRs and only about four more than the best tight ends on the wire. That is unlikely to make much of a difference in a given week, certainly not enough to justify burning an extra roster spot for. Graham and Gronk may be two of the best options again for Week 8, but if you don't have one of those two (or perhaps the ageless Tony Gonzalez who is leading all tight ends), is any of the others even close to guaranteed to having a better week than say, Joel Dreesen or Brandon Myers? Not Kyle Rudolph, who has now posted back-to-back stinkers after bursting onto the scene with five TDs between Weeks 2 and 6. Ditto Vernon Davis. Not Antonio Gates, who didn't find the end zone UNTIL Week 6 and is on pace for less than 600 yards receiving. Certainly not Jermichael Finley, who is borderline droppable at this point.

The expected tight end explosion has simply not come to fruition. By the nature of the position, there is simply a lower fantasy ceiling, and while a lot more guys may be capable of filling your bye week gaps, few if any are going to make magic for your team this year. Get used to it, and adjust. And remember my credo of not trusting the opposition rankings as much when it comes to tight end - they're far inferior predictors to the ranks against QBs, RBs and TEs. The safest play is to go with the hottest hand or the greatest number of targets, regardless of what his name is or who he is playing.

DST Trap
If you're a big underdog this week, you may consider playing the Raiders DST, facing a Kansas City squad that has been so awful they are letting Brady Quinn take over under center. That seems like an even more enticing draw, but check the facts first. Although it hasn't necessarily been the case this year, the Raiders are traditionally very generous to opposing RBs and this week they draw superstar Jamaal Charles and a now-healthy Peyton Hillis. Playing to that strength, the Chiefs are going to run, run and run some more, virtually guaranteeing a reasonable yardage and point total, and significantly reducing the turnover and sack potential. Just last week, the Raiders hosted a similarly messy Jacksonville team that lost both its starting QB and starting RB, but still failed to put up a reasonable DST number. This week's game is on the road. If you don't need to rely on your DST for the win, look elsewhere, but if you need a big number like a 15+, Kansas City offers that more than any other opponent. But the Raiders are the worst DST in the biz, so don't be surprised if you end up with a 2 (or worse!)

Plug-and-Play!
-Donald Brown is the hot name here, although it's unlikely he was dropped for the two weeks he missed. Vick Ballard is a reasonable grab too if you can get him in time. Both have a great stretch schedule including this week. Ballard gets the edge this week, but I think it's back to Brown going forward.
-Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller are in the same boat as Brown and Ballard with favorable schedules this week and beyond. Unfortunately, neither is the starter. In a pinch for this week, I'd play Thomas, but the more explosive Miller may have the more significant role come fantasy playoff time and the great opponents it features (home dates against Jacksonville and Buffalo in Weeks 15 and 16.)
-Joel Dreesen or Jacob Tamme. Dreesen has emerged as a regular red zone threat, giving him real weekly value (although potentially hit or a miss.) In the Broncos last game, he actually outtargeted Tamme, 7-2, but that hasn't been the norm. Tamme is the safer option, but he appears to be being used in mostly a possession-type role, having only found the end zone in Week 1. Either is as good as most other tight ends this week in what projects as a shootout against New Orleans.
-Sam Bradford. Mark Sanchez just topped 300, a rarity for him, against New England, Bradford's opponent this week. The biggest obstacle for Bradford in achieving greatness is flawed pass protection. The Patriots have tender pass rush and an exploitable secondary. Bradford easily eclipses 300 and probably at least a couple of TDs.

One Giant Mess (but in a good way!)

Ahmad Bradsahw owners everywhere (myself included) rejoiced again over the last two weeks as Bradshaw, finally crowned the featureback with the offseason departure of Brandon Jacobs, came back from another early season injury to thoroughly dominate in back-to-back weeks against tough run defenses in Philadelphia and San Francisco. The huge upside Bradshaw possessed in his situation with the Giants was finally being realized, as he overcame the adversities of both injury and opponent.

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Unfortunately, the glory has been short-lived. Bradshaw is back on the injury report with his old foot problems recurring, and there's a chance he doesn't even play this week. Even if he does, his two backups have both proven themselves more than adequate, so either could end up being more valuable in Sunday's sure high-scoring contest against the Redskins. That doesn't mean you don't play Bradshaw, it simply means you lower your expectations - more in line with what they were last year when Jacobs was doing well in his limited role and thus capping Bradshaw's upside. And like Jacobs, this year's backups have value, particularly during these bye weeks. I don't think I'd feel great about playing David Wilson quite yet, but Andre Brown is a must-play if Bradshaw is out. If Bradshaw is in, both Wilson and Brown are desperation flex plays until one emerges as the better option. There's certainly a chance you see a version of the prototype NFL RB split, with Bradshaw the primary guy between the tackles, Wilson the around-the-edge guy, and Brown the value-sapping goalline vulture. But I still like Bradshaw the most by a lot because he's the best at both pass protection and receiving, and because Tom Coughlin defers to his veterans. Wilson's hit-or-miss value lies primarily in his demonstrated ability to do a lot with few touches. And from a dynasty perspective, Wilson is rapidly rising to the ranks of Doug Martin and even potentially Trent Richardson. Bid low now while you still can.

Now that Hakeem Nicks appears to be fully recovered, it's back to business as usual for the Giants wideouts and Eli Manning. Basically, Manning will consistently flirt with 400 yards passing, and Nicks and Cruz will regularly top 100 receiving. Where does the other 200 yards go? Right now, Domenik Hixon, making him a pretty reliable WR3. But there are others lurking in the shadows that could make a legit play for that role on any given week (Ramses Barden and Reuben Randle have already done it once each this season.) In a week like this, against a suspect secondary in what should be a high-scoring contest, Hixon is about as good a bye week WR3 as you will find. He may or may not find the end zone, but 6-7 catches for 80+ yards is likely. And please don't forget about Martellus Bennett. He's not exactly fully incorporated into the offense yet, but it's simply too great a situation to ignore. Low-end TE1 the rest of the way.

The Giants are on par with the Packers, Patriots and Saints in what I like to call Fantasy Gold. (I thought the Lions would be there this year too, but they're not there yet.) Basically, that means they score a lot of points and are able to spread the fantasy wealth among several players. In fact, in that regard the Giants are probably second only to the Packers, who have progressively made Cedric Benson, Randall Cobb, James Jones and Alex Green fantasy stars this year, making the struggles of Jermichael Finley even more of an enigma. The Giants' third wideout spot has become an annual coming-out party for whoever inherits it (Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, Victor Cruz) whereas for most other teams it's a desperation play at best. Additionally, the Giants have boasted two fantasy RB2/3s in each season since 2005. That's pretty impressive. Although fantasy and reality are regularly divergent, the Giants' amazing ability to reload with new names is no doubt a big reason that they have won two Superbowls in that same span. IDP owners know that that's true on the defensive side as well, where Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora started a great legacy that has now passed seamlessly on to Jason Pierre-Paul.

What's Best?

That's the burning question of the day. Fantasy owners far and wide spent most of Friday awaiting word on the status of Detroit Lions' running back Jahvid Best. Did he "pass" his concussion tests? And if so, when would he return to game action? If not, what was his long-term prognosis and estimated return date?

There's really no way of knowing what his real status is without talking to the independent doctors that are evaluating him, and thus far nothing has been reported from those critical sources. Nothing on Twitter, no real backdoor rumors, no fact-based speculation, positive or negative. It's odd given his upside (both in real life and in fantasy) that there hasn't been more of a swarm of attention that would uncover something, anything that would bring clarity to Detroit Lions fans and fantasy football owners. A flood of "should I add him?"'s inundated the fantasy message boards, but without knowing where he's at, it's an impossible question to answer.

Until there's a concrete "he's back!", I say he's the equivalent of rostering a high-end handcuff that would be pretty valuable if the starter got hurt, but relatively worthless otherwise. And you don't own the starter. That's the choice you make - do you want to use the roster spot for a lottery ticket, or do you want to use it for something more tangible, like a good one-week fill-in or real roster depth?

There is no doubt the guy can be a highlight show on the field at times, but even when he was healthy and playing, he was not a reliable fantasy asset as a rookie. His 2010 debut was a dud (36 yards from scrimmage on 19 touches), but he saved it from a fantasy perspective with two short TDs, high-impact opportunities he is unlikely to receive even he if he is granted a clean bill of health. His second NFL game was the best of his career, as he rattled off 230 yards from scrimmage and three TDs on just 26 touches. For the rest of his rookie season, he failed to break 100 yards from scrimmage (including six games with less than 50 yards) and only found the end zone once more. Fortunately, his second year represented a significant uptick, as four of his six contests were 100+, and the floor was 70 yards.

Most of the chatter about him now has him slotted for a Darren Sproles type receiver-out-of-the-backfield role, and since Sproles finished among the top 10 RBs last year and is in the top 20 again this year, it's easy to get excited about Best. But unlike Sproles, Best's immense fragility makes him one simple misstep away from returning to IR. Forget about taking a hard hit - he could just fall funny, on the field or off, or merely have concussion symptoms return once he starts exerting himself more.

All things considered, it's very tough to justify dropping a player you otherwise wouldn't in order to roster Best. Even if he does come back, you may be in for a bigger headache than he's had. And on a related note, while it's easy for me to be excited for his potential fantasy usage, it's impossible for me to be excited for him personally. I think it's a bad choice for him to return to football, at least this season. As an NHL fan, I've just seen one too many superstars have to endure the torment of postconcussion syndrome just because they wanted to get back out on the ice. It ain't worth it.

I've been debating myself for hours trying to figure out if I should drop Danny Amendola for Best. Amendola is a very curious case, because prior to this year, he had very little fantasy-relevant history. His absence could be as little as three weeks, or as many as eight. His playoff schedule is very attractive. And I am somewhat thin at wideout - Amendola and Hartline are my best. But I also have Bilal Powell and Vick Ballard as my only RB backups to Lynch and Mathews - an increasingly healthy Best would likely provide much more exciting insurance should one of my studs go down. But I don't want to drop Powell or Ballard until I know Best is ready to go. Argh! The good news is the decision will likely be made for me because Best is on waivers and I'm last in the order. I'm vey perplexed as to why someone who had been holding him this long elected to drop him this week - Thursday was about the highest his market value has been since he was playing.

Just Shanny Being Shanny

Well I guess Alfred Morris IS for real. The 2012 6th rounder was hyped as the starter following a strong preseason, but most of us figured it was just typical Shanny-speak. Apparently, that's not the case. Apparently, Morris is the new Terrell Davis. In what I argue is by far the biggest surprise of the first quarter-season, Morris is the No. 5 RB in fantasy, averaging a robust 15 points per game. I didn't see that coming (heck I didn't see him lasting as the starter this long) and if you say you did, you're lying. But good luck with that.

It would be a risk, sure, but why not sell him high now? Chances are he wasn't slated to be one of your top two RBs anyway, so unless you drafted Roy Helu as one of those, you should be in good shape to sell as a lucky-duck Morris owner. Aim for a struggling RB that is an odds-on favorite to outproduce him over the remainder of the season, and none is a better legitimate target than Ryan Mathews. I'm in strong agreement with Rotoworld's recommendation on seeking Mathews cheap. And I consider Morris cheap, although some may disagree. I'm just not convinced a sixth-rounder will last the whole season as the bellcow in the extremely unpredictable Shanahan system. Time to cash out while you still can.

Same thing for Reggie Bush. He's one false step away from total oblivion. Unfortunately, you probably DID draft him as a starter, so you may be stuck unless you can get a reliable return, and Mathews and Chris Johnson aren't exactly reliable.... yet. Of further misfortune is that fact that Bush does not have a clear handcuff for you to roster should Bush get injured. Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller would probably form some kind of timeshare similar to Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart in Carolina, ultimately limiting each to roughly RB3 status. Tough to roster either guy as a handcuff. 

Carolina's RBs may be tough to play as anything more than a flex, and now Cam Newton's growing pains are making most of the team at least temporarily hands off for fantasy purposes. But what the Panthers do offer to fantasy owners is one of the most attractive matchups, having surrendered 25+ fantasy points to opposing RBs in each of the past three weeks. That should make Marshawn Lynch owners very very happy headed into this week as he is by far the best RB the Panthers have faced so far. The plodding 30-year-old Michael Turner exploded for 171 yards on just 16 touches last week. I would like to say Marshawn Lynch is a near lock for the No. 1 RB this week, but Ray Rice has a similarly favorable match at KC and Arian Foster is unlikely to lose too many snaps to a less-than-100-percent Ben Tate against a rather suddenly susceptible NY Jets rush defense.

Turner is unlikely to have the same kind of game in him this week, but no doubt he'll find the end zone against Washington's suspect defense. I like Matt Ryan to have a near-career day against the Redskins and obviously he'll take Roddy White and Julio Jones with him. With Robert Griffin capable of leading the offense back regardless of opponent, this one is going to be a shootout. Play your 'skins and 'cons (Falcons) with confidence. (And that includes Morris!)

Suffering the Schedule

Just like a fantasy player, I have my off weeks. This is going to be one of them, and unfortunately, next week may be as well. Just a little too busy to get my fantasy thoughts in right now!

I will say my key observation for this week already is that the Giants are possibly the team that is most likely to turn an unknown into a real fantasy commodity. They've done it now in three successive seasons at wide receiver with Mario Manningham, then Victor Cruz, and now possibly Ramses Barden. I think it's safe to say whoever locks down that third wideout spot in New York is a safe weekly start for the rest of the season, and Barden for now has a decent edge on Dominic Hixon and Reuble Randle. Buy now, believe later.

It's probably too late to buy Martellus Bennett, but there's another question mark that has morphed into an exclamation point. If you can get him on the cheap (for Fred Davis, or Robert Meachem, or Kevin Smith), I think it's a no-brainer. I'm not ready to move him ahead of Jermichael Finley, but he's headed rapidly in that direction.

I have no idea what's going to happen with Andre Brown after Thursday Night's performance, but whatever it is is more bad news for Ahmad Bradshaw, who is almost certain to be demoted into at best a timeshare similar to what he had last year, and still looking at David Wilson on the horizon. Bradshaw was always a playable RB2 and I think it will continue that way for now, but Brown looks the part of a more sprite version of what Brandon Jacobs was last year, a weekly RB3. Coughlin defers to veterans, but he also plays the guys who earn it, and Brown earned it. As a Bradshaw owner, I hate to say it, but Brown looks like the better powerback, goalline option, and clock killer, likely a regular need for this strong offense. I don't think he outsnaps or outtouches Bradshaw, but I would not be at all surprised if he outproduces him going forward. Then again, it WAS Carolina. But with Bradshaw's injury history, there is nothing but upside here.

Thwarted

Well that was a mess. And I'm not talking about the Packers-Bears game, although that qualifies as well.

In Week 1, I went a perfect 0-4 in my four money leagues, thanks in large part to my preseason darling, the Buffalo Bills' DST. On the first possession of the game, the Bills managed to pick off dream opponent Mark Sanchez, as expected. But after that, they allowed him to score at will, as he managed three TD passes, no sacks, and a QB rating near 100. Mark Sanchez! Allowing 48 total points, the Bills DST was a negative asset in Week 1, and will be difficult to trust again anytime soon. They've still got that magnificent stretch schedule, but they'll have to show some consistency before one can take the risk. My whole master plan up in flames. Drat!

Unfortunately, that's fantasy football, especially in the first few weeks of the season. You spend the entire offseason (or even just a few weeks) coming up with brilliant fantasy schemes, but many are primarily based in incomplete data - what happened last season. Just because the Jets were a dream opponent for DSTs last year doesn't make them so this year, even if many signs point to it. Could Jeremy Kerley and Stephen Hill be WR2s? That's probably pushing it, but we won't know for sure they're not until we're into about Week 5.

In last week's column, I hesitated to mention Dexter McCluster's heavily targeted preseason, mostly because it was preseason, Dwayne Bowe wasn't around, and he's burned me as a recommendation in the past. But lo and behold, even in the regular season with Bowe alongside, McCluster led the team in targets (10!) and pulled down 6 for 82 yards. He didn't find the endzone, but 10 targets is at least a must-roster in all leagues. McCluster the Must-Roster. And guess what? He started the season with RB eligibility and now has WR to go with it. An old fantasy mancrush has been reborn. That means lots of 2s, 3s and 4s over the next several weeks, of course. But it's always nice to be excited about someone.

Much more quickly than expected, Randall Cobb went from sleeper to wide awake in just the first week of his much-hyped "breakout" season. But on Thursday, Packers' head coach Mike McCarthy pushed the snooze button, giving Cobb just two offensive touches despite the inactive status of stud WR Greg Jennings. That's not going to win any fantasy matchups for the folks who plugged-and-played him in Week 2. I feel even worse for those who rolled the dice on James Jones, who looked the part of a backup trying to be a starter, with a missed catch in the end zone and a rookiesque mistake in failing to complete a route that resulted in a Chicago interception. Lost in my offseason of research was the fact that Jennings is in a contract year, and could be traded midseason or simply not resigned by the Packers for 2013 and beyond. That puts a pretty significant crimp on his value, especially in keeper/dynasty leagues, given there is virtually no better spot for an elite receiver than in Green Bay. All the best QBs already have high-end No. 1s in place, so Jennings would have to settle for a slinger far inferior to Aaron Rodgers and just hope he sees double digit targets each game. Given the way Thursday looked without him, Green Bay may be willing to bring him back regardless of cost. If not, Cobb and Jones still retain a high speculative value. I'd take Cobb first, but Jones can't be totally dismissed until the situation is resolved.

The wait for Mikel Leshoure is down to one week, as millions of speculators have held on to him for his much-anticipated NFL debut, slated for Week Three. Unfortunately, Kevin Smith looked pretty strong as an all-purpose RB, giving the Lions no reason to rush Leshoure into a significant role. Add the possible return of Jahvid Best in Week 7, and you've got a muddied RB picture reminiscent of New Orleans'. Is there a Darren Sproles in there somewhere? Sure, but it's probably Smith, at least while he's healthy. Best is the electrifying but limited-touch Pierre Thomas, and Leshoure mimics Ingram or Ivory, at the goalline and killing the clock. But none has the sterling health record of Sproles, and each can probably act as an all-purpose back. So all any of them need is a couple of timely injuries to the other two (or even just one) to become a weekly RB2. Unlike most pundits, I don't think Kevin Smith is truly the one to own, but my inherent contrarian nature is at least part of that argument. I put the brakes on Smith because of his litany of injuries, and on Best because of his one-and-done concussion possibility. Leshoure has had a significant injury as well, no doubt, but I'm less worried about his durability than the other two. I think Leshoure comes out slow, but gets the lead job by midseason and rolls as an RB1 into the fantasy playoffs.

Da Bills

Da Bills. That's my big secret for the 2012 fantasy football season. Da Bills.

In my first column of last season, I made note of Pittsburgh's seemingly spectacular fantasy playoff schedule, featuring home dates against Cleveland in Week 14 and St. Louis in Week 16. The Steelers DST disappointed me, however,  recording only 12 and 10 fantasy points in those weeks, scarcely better than the average match-up play.

But I'm going back to the well on this one folks. It can't be dry this time, can it?

Though hardly the dominant DST that the Steelers have traditionally boasted, the Bills imported two critical components to their new-look defense. D-guru Dave Wannstedt was handed the reins to this unit in early January and Mario Williams (one of the most lethal pass rushers in the league) was signed to a massive free agent contract. Those two factors alone would not get me too excited about a DST that was middling at best last year, but Buffalo's schedule does, as it should anyone else who would otherwise have to stream.

The start isn't exactly special, but it ain't bad either: at the Jets, hosting the Chiefs, and then at Cleveland. Regadless of who is quarterbacking the Jets, that there is a turnover on a silver platter, and New York scored exactly one TD in the preseason. I think the Bills have just as much a chance to score a defensive TD as the Jets do of scoring an offensive one. Hosting KC is as good a matchup play as most others in Week Two, and then the Bills go to Cleveland. Facing a rookie QB (in this case Brandon Weedon) is always a good thing.

The midseason doesn't look nearly as rosy for the Bills (including two dates against the Patriots) but the final two months sure do. Miami twice, Indianapolis once, and three successive bone-chilling home dates against milder-weather squads Jacksonville, St. Louis and Seattle in Weeks 13, 14 and 15. And if you're in one of those cooky leagues that insists on playing a Week 17 championship game, you get Sanchez-Tebow again, this time at home. I can't say there isn't some fear of former castoff Marshawn Lynch going all beast mode in his return to Ralph Wilson Stadium in Week 15, but as long as Russell Wilson (or any other relative unknown) is his QB that day, I'm willing to take the risk. Looks like a title-winning DST that is flying well under the radar. I have them in all my leagues and there's a pretty good chance they're a free agent in yours.

Speaking of all my leagues, I have once again made the mistake of signing up for too many. I blame the length of the offseason, and my absolute giddiness to get things underway. I keep thinking about all the opportunities in all the different leagues (I'm gonna get Jimmy Graham in one of them, by gosh!) and thus ultimately end up staring straight a season where every single fantasy-relevant player will be represented either on one of my rosters or one of my opponents' every single week. And that just defeats the whole purpose. It's like playing free no-limit hold 'em online. If you keep going all-in on the first hand every time, eventually you're going to win one of those monster play money pots. But what's the point? (Note to self - keep it to three or four. And drop the league where you have to start a punter. A punter!!!)

I was pretty annoyed with my mediocre showing with last year's season-opening predictions, so I'm not going to do anything nearly as expansive this year. I'll just throw out a couple of my favorite sleepers to see if I can awaken them:

1. Jacquizz Rodgers. You may say he's no longer a sleeper, but his ADP is not reflective of a player anyone is counting on. He's a popular speculative pick, and with good reason. Unfortunately, the preseason did not suggest anything will change this year in terms of usage, so if you pick him early, you may have to wait awhile for the pick to pay dividends. Given the fact that you win the money not in September but in December (when Turner is worn down), Rodgers may be worth a full season roster spot. His upside is on par with Darren Sproles, the 7th best(!) fantasy RB in standard leagues last year, even better in PPR.

2. Mikel Leshoure. Best to PUP, Kevin "Injury" Smith the starter. Recovering from an Achilles injury is not easy, but Leshoure is one ding to Smith away from potential superstardom. The Detroit backfield is Russian roulette at this point in terms of injury risk, and Leshoure is no exception. But he's much cheaper than Smith and will be back much sooner than Best.

3. Randall Cobb. Another popular sleeper, but one for whom enthusiasm has waned recently due to the Packers' commitment to veteran Donald Driver. But weren't Jordy Nelson and James Jones fighting for one spot last year? How did that work out? I say Cobb threatens all the starters' snaps by midseason, although he may still be a hit-and-miss. But when he hits, ohhhhh baby!

4. The Vikings trio of Christian Ponder, Kyle Rudolph and Jerome Simpson. Ponder is gonna have to throw the ball against some of these high-octane offenses he's facing. With AP still on the mend, and with a year under the already mature Ponder's belt, the ground game won't be as much a point of reliance. Lost in many calculations is the emergence of Rudolph as the newest of the red zone beast tight ends (6'6, 265) and the apparent chemistry Ponder found with talented-but-raw Simpson in training camp. Simpson is suspended until Week Four, but should provide Ponder a great additional option once he returns. All three could strengthen your bench considerably, and very very cheaply.

5. Kevin Ogletreee. Okay, I'm cheating on this one as he's already gone off for 100+ yards and two TDs. But I did have him on my most WR-needy team's watch list even before he exploded. The Cowboys have liked him for a long time, but he's never been consistent enough to get much playing time. He inherited the old Laurent Robinson gig as No. 3 receiver, and it looks like it may be the perfect fit. Don't forget that both Witten and Austin were not at 100 percent on Wednesday, so he probably got more targets than he will normally. But he's definitely earned Romo's trust for now, and Romo's good enough to find him with regularity. I would not hesitate to add him via waivers, especially if you are thin at WR.

Just like the last two years, I'll be sounding off in this blog every Saturday morning, a time when there always seems to be a gap in fresh content. And hopefully it won't just be a rehash of stuff from other sources earlier in the week, but rather some unique and interesting insight that might help you get a little edge over your peers this fantasy season.

It's great to be back folks, now let's kick this thing off!