Thwarted

Well that was a mess. And I'm not talking about the Packers-Bears game, although that qualifies as well.

In Week 1, I went a perfect 0-4 in my four money leagues, thanks in large part to my preseason darling, the Buffalo Bills' DST. On the first possession of the game, the Bills managed to pick off dream opponent Mark Sanchez, as expected. But after that, they allowed him to score at will, as he managed three TD passes, no sacks, and a QB rating near 100. Mark Sanchez! Allowing 48 total points, the Bills DST was a negative asset in Week 1, and will be difficult to trust again anytime soon. They've still got that magnificent stretch schedule, but they'll have to show some consistency before one can take the risk. My whole master plan up in flames. Drat!

Unfortunately, that's fantasy football, especially in the first few weeks of the season. You spend the entire offseason (or even just a few weeks) coming up with brilliant fantasy schemes, but many are primarily based in incomplete data - what happened last season. Just because the Jets were a dream opponent for DSTs last year doesn't make them so this year, even if many signs point to it. Could Jeremy Kerley and Stephen Hill be WR2s? That's probably pushing it, but we won't know for sure they're not until we're into about Week 5.

In last week's column, I hesitated to mention Dexter McCluster's heavily targeted preseason, mostly because it was preseason, Dwayne Bowe wasn't around, and he's burned me as a recommendation in the past. But lo and behold, even in the regular season with Bowe alongside, McCluster led the team in targets (10!) and pulled down 6 for 82 yards. He didn't find the endzone, but 10 targets is at least a must-roster in all leagues. McCluster the Must-Roster. And guess what? He started the season with RB eligibility and now has WR to go with it. An old fantasy mancrush has been reborn. That means lots of 2s, 3s and 4s over the next several weeks, of course. But it's always nice to be excited about someone.

Much more quickly than expected, Randall Cobb went from sleeper to wide awake in just the first week of his much-hyped "breakout" season. But on Thursday, Packers' head coach Mike McCarthy pushed the snooze button, giving Cobb just two offensive touches despite the inactive status of stud WR Greg Jennings. That's not going to win any fantasy matchups for the folks who plugged-and-played him in Week 2. I feel even worse for those who rolled the dice on James Jones, who looked the part of a backup trying to be a starter, with a missed catch in the end zone and a rookiesque mistake in failing to complete a route that resulted in a Chicago interception. Lost in my offseason of research was the fact that Jennings is in a contract year, and could be traded midseason or simply not resigned by the Packers for 2013 and beyond. That puts a pretty significant crimp on his value, especially in keeper/dynasty leagues, given there is virtually no better spot for an elite receiver than in Green Bay. All the best QBs already have high-end No. 1s in place, so Jennings would have to settle for a slinger far inferior to Aaron Rodgers and just hope he sees double digit targets each game. Given the way Thursday looked without him, Green Bay may be willing to bring him back regardless of cost. If not, Cobb and Jones still retain a high speculative value. I'd take Cobb first, but Jones can't be totally dismissed until the situation is resolved.

The wait for Mikel Leshoure is down to one week, as millions of speculators have held on to him for his much-anticipated NFL debut, slated for Week Three. Unfortunately, Kevin Smith looked pretty strong as an all-purpose RB, giving the Lions no reason to rush Leshoure into a significant role. Add the possible return of Jahvid Best in Week 7, and you've got a muddied RB picture reminiscent of New Orleans'. Is there a Darren Sproles in there somewhere? Sure, but it's probably Smith, at least while he's healthy. Best is the electrifying but limited-touch Pierre Thomas, and Leshoure mimics Ingram or Ivory, at the goalline and killing the clock. But none has the sterling health record of Sproles, and each can probably act as an all-purpose back. So all any of them need is a couple of timely injuries to the other two (or even just one) to become a weekly RB2. Unlike most pundits, I don't think Kevin Smith is truly the one to own, but my inherent contrarian nature is at least part of that argument. I put the brakes on Smith because of his litany of injuries, and on Best because of his one-and-done concussion possibility. Leshoure has had a significant injury as well, no doubt, but I'm less worried about his durability than the other two. I think Leshoure comes out slow, but gets the lead job by midseason and rolls as an RB1 into the fantasy playoffs.