Saturday, October 20, 2012

One Giant Mess (but in a good way!)

Ahmad Bradsahw owners everywhere (myself included) rejoiced again over the last two weeks as Bradshaw, finally crowned the featureback with the offseason departure of Brandon Jacobs, came back from another early season injury to thoroughly dominate in back-to-back weeks against tough run defenses in Philadelphia and San Francisco. The huge upside Bradshaw possessed in his situation with the Giants was finally being realized, as he overcame the adversities of both injury and opponent.
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Unfortunately, the glory has been short-lived. Bradshaw is back on the injury report with his old foot problems recurring, and there's a chance he doesn't even play this week. Even if he does, his two backups have both proven themselves more than adequate, so either could end up being more valuable in Sunday's sure high-scoring contest against the Redskins. That doesn't mean you don't play Bradshaw, it simply means you lower your expectations - more in line with what they were last year when Jacobs was doing well in his limited role and thus capping Bradshaw's upside. And like Jacobs, this year's backups have value, particularly during these bye weeks. I don't think I'd feel great about playing David Wilson quite yet, but Andre Brown is a must-play if Bradshaw is out. If Bradshaw is in, both Wilson and Brown are desperation flex plays until one emerges as the better option. There's certainly a chance you see a version of the prototype NFL RB split, with Bradshaw the primary guy between the tackles, Wilson the around-the-edge guy, and Brown the value-sapping goalline vulture. But I still like Bradshaw the most by a lot because he's the best at both pass protection and receiving, and because Tom Coughlin defers to his veterans. Wilson's hit-or-miss value lies primarily in his demonstrated ability to do a lot with few touches. And from a dynasty perspective, Wilson is rapidly rising to the ranks of Doug Martin and even potentially Trent Richardson. Bid low now while you still can.

Now that Hakeem Nicks appears to be fully recovered, it's back to business as usual for the Giants wideouts and Eli Manning. Basically, Manning will consistently flirt with 400 yards passing, and Nicks and Cruz will regularly top 100 receiving. Where does the other 200 yards go? Right now, Domenik Hixon, making him a pretty reliable WR3. But there are others lurking in the shadows that could make a legit play for that role on any given week (Ramses Barden and Reuben Randle have already done it once each this season.) In a week like this, against a suspect secondary in what should be a high-scoring contest, Hixon is about as good a bye week WR3 as you will find. He may or may not find the end zone, but 6-7 catches for 80+ yards is likely. And please don't forget about Martellus Bennett. He's not exactly fully incorporated into the offense yet, but it's simply too great a situation to ignore. Low-end TE1 the rest of the way.

The Giants are on par with the Packers, Patriots and Saints in what I like to call Fantasy Gold. (I thought the Lions would be there this year too, but they're not there yet.) Basically, that means they score a lot of points and are able to spread the fantasy wealth among several players. In fact, in that regard the Giants are probably second only to the Packers, who have progressively made Cedric Benson, Randall Cobb, James Jones and Alex Green fantasy stars this year, making the struggles of Jermichael Finley even more of an enigma. The Giants' third wideout spot has become an annual coming-out party for whoever inherits it (Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, Victor Cruz) whereas for most other teams it's a desperation play at best. Additionally, the Giants have boasted two fantasy RB2/3s in each season since 2005. That's pretty impressive. Although fantasy and reality are regularly divergent, the Giants' amazing ability to reload with new names is no doubt a big reason that they have won two Superbowls in that same span. IDP owners know that that's true on the defensive side as well, where Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora started a great legacy that has now passed seamlessly on to Jason Pierre-Paul.

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