Da Bills

Da Bills. That's my big secret for the 2012 fantasy football season. Da Bills.

In my first column of last season, I made note of Pittsburgh's seemingly spectacular fantasy playoff schedule, featuring home dates against Cleveland in Week 14 and St. Louis in Week 16. The Steelers DST disappointed me, however,  recording only 12 and 10 fantasy points in those weeks, scarcely better than the average match-up play.

But I'm going back to the well on this one folks. It can't be dry this time, can it?

Though hardly the dominant DST that the Steelers have traditionally boasted, the Bills imported two critical components to their new-look defense. D-guru Dave Wannstedt was handed the reins to this unit in early January and Mario Williams (one of the most lethal pass rushers in the league) was signed to a massive free agent contract. Those two factors alone would not get me too excited about a DST that was middling at best last year, but Buffalo's schedule does, as it should anyone else who would otherwise have to stream.

The start isn't exactly special, but it ain't bad either: at the Jets, hosting the Chiefs, and then at Cleveland. Regadless of who is quarterbacking the Jets, that there is a turnover on a silver platter, and New York scored exactly one TD in the preseason. I think the Bills have just as much a chance to score a defensive TD as the Jets do of scoring an offensive one. Hosting KC is as good a matchup play as most others in Week Two, and then the Bills go to Cleveland. Facing a rookie QB (in this case Brandon Weedon) is always a good thing.

The midseason doesn't look nearly as rosy for the Bills (including two dates against the Patriots) but the final two months sure do. Miami twice, Indianapolis once, and three successive bone-chilling home dates against milder-weather squads Jacksonville, St. Louis and Seattle in Weeks 13, 14 and 15. And if you're in one of those cooky leagues that insists on playing a Week 17 championship game, you get Sanchez-Tebow again, this time at home. I can't say there isn't some fear of former castoff Marshawn Lynch going all beast mode in his return to Ralph Wilson Stadium in Week 15, but as long as Russell Wilson (or any other relative unknown) is his QB that day, I'm willing to take the risk. Looks like a title-winning DST that is flying well under the radar. I have them in all my leagues and there's a pretty good chance they're a free agent in yours.

Speaking of all my leagues, I have once again made the mistake of signing up for too many. I blame the length of the offseason, and my absolute giddiness to get things underway. I keep thinking about all the opportunities in all the different leagues (I'm gonna get Jimmy Graham in one of them, by gosh!) and thus ultimately end up staring straight a season where every single fantasy-relevant player will be represented either on one of my rosters or one of my opponents' every single week. And that just defeats the whole purpose. It's like playing free no-limit hold 'em online. If you keep going all-in on the first hand every time, eventually you're going to win one of those monster play money pots. But what's the point? (Note to self - keep it to three or four. And drop the league where you have to start a punter. A punter!!!)

I was pretty annoyed with my mediocre showing with last year's season-opening predictions, so I'm not going to do anything nearly as expansive this year. I'll just throw out a couple of my favorite sleepers to see if I can awaken them:

1. Jacquizz Rodgers. You may say he's no longer a sleeper, but his ADP is not reflective of a player anyone is counting on. He's a popular speculative pick, and with good reason. Unfortunately, the preseason did not suggest anything will change this year in terms of usage, so if you pick him early, you may have to wait awhile for the pick to pay dividends. Given the fact that you win the money not in September but in December (when Turner is worn down), Rodgers may be worth a full season roster spot. His upside is on par with Darren Sproles, the 7th best(!) fantasy RB in standard leagues last year, even better in PPR.

2. Mikel Leshoure. Best to PUP, Kevin "Injury" Smith the starter. Recovering from an Achilles injury is not easy, but Leshoure is one ding to Smith away from potential superstardom. The Detroit backfield is Russian roulette at this point in terms of injury risk, and Leshoure is no exception. But he's much cheaper than Smith and will be back much sooner than Best.

3. Randall Cobb. Another popular sleeper, but one for whom enthusiasm has waned recently due to the Packers' commitment to veteran Donald Driver. But weren't Jordy Nelson and James Jones fighting for one spot last year? How did that work out? I say Cobb threatens all the starters' snaps by midseason, although he may still be a hit-and-miss. But when he hits, ohhhhh baby!

4. The Vikings trio of Christian Ponder, Kyle Rudolph and Jerome Simpson. Ponder is gonna have to throw the ball against some of these high-octane offenses he's facing. With AP still on the mend, and with a year under the already mature Ponder's belt, the ground game won't be as much a point of reliance. Lost in many calculations is the emergence of Rudolph as the newest of the red zone beast tight ends (6'6, 265) and the apparent chemistry Ponder found with talented-but-raw Simpson in training camp. Simpson is suspended until Week Four, but should provide Ponder a great additional option once he returns. All three could strengthen your bench considerably, and very very cheaply.

5. Kevin Ogletreee. Okay, I'm cheating on this one as he's already gone off for 100+ yards and two TDs. But I did have him on my most WR-needy team's watch list even before he exploded. The Cowboys have liked him for a long time, but he's never been consistent enough to get much playing time. He inherited the old Laurent Robinson gig as No. 3 receiver, and it looks like it may be the perfect fit. Don't forget that both Witten and Austin were not at 100 percent on Wednesday, so he probably got more targets than he will normally. But he's definitely earned Romo's trust for now, and Romo's good enough to find him with regularity. I would not hesitate to add him via waivers, especially if you are thin at WR.

Just like the last two years, I'll be sounding off in this blog every Saturday morning, a time when there always seems to be a gap in fresh content. And hopefully it won't just be a rehash of stuff from other sources earlier in the week, but rather some unique and interesting insight that might help you get a little edge over your peers this fantasy season.

It's great to be back folks, now let's kick this thing off!