Just like a fantasy player, I have my off weeks. This is going to be one of them, and unfortunately, next week may be as well. Just a little too busy to get my fantasy thoughts in right now!
I will say my key observation for this week already is that the Giants are possibly the team that is most likely to turn an unknown into a real fantasy commodity. They've done it now in three successive seasons at wide receiver with Mario Manningham, then Victor Cruz, and now possibly Ramses Barden. I think it's safe to say whoever locks down that third wideout spot in New York is a safe weekly start for the rest of the season, and Barden for now has a decent edge on Dominic Hixon and Reuble Randle. Buy now, believe later.
It's probably too late to buy Martellus Bennett, but there's another question mark that has morphed into an exclamation point. If you can get him on the cheap (for Fred Davis, or Robert Meachem, or Kevin Smith), I think it's a no-brainer. I'm not ready to move him ahead of Jermichael Finley, but he's headed rapidly in that direction.
I have no idea what's going to happen with Andre Brown after Thursday Night's performance, but whatever it is is more bad news for Ahmad Bradshaw, who is almost certain to be demoted into at best a timeshare similar to what he had last year, and still looking at David Wilson on the horizon. Bradshaw was always a playable RB2 and I think it will continue that way for now, but Brown looks the part of a more sprite version of what Brandon Jacobs was last year, a weekly RB3. Coughlin defers to veterans, but he also plays the guys who earn it, and Brown earned it. As a Bradshaw owner, I hate to say it, but Brown looks like the better powerback, goalline option, and clock killer, likely a regular need for this strong offense. I don't think he outsnaps or outtouches Bradshaw, but I would not be at all surprised if he outproduces him going forward. Then again, it WAS Carolina. But with Bradshaw's injury history, there is nothing but upside here.
Friday, September 21, 2012
Saturday, September 15, 2012
Thwarted
Well that was a mess. And I'm not talking about the Packers-Bears game, although that qualifies as well.
In
Week 1, I went a perfect 0-4 in my four money leagues, thanks in large
part to my preseason darling, the Buffalo Bills' DST. On the first
possession of the game, the Bills managed to pick off dream opponent
Mark
Sanchez, as expected. But after that, they allowed him to score at
will, as he managed three TD passes, no sacks, and a QB rating near 100.
Mark Sanchez! Allowing 48 total points, the Bills DST was a negative
asset in Week 1, and will be difficult to trust again anytime soon.
They've still
got that magnificent stretch schedule, but they'll have to show some
consistency before one can take the risk. My whole master plan up in
flames. Drat!
Unfortunately,
that's fantasy football,
especially in the first few weeks of the season. You spend the entire
offseason (or
even just a few weeks) coming up with brilliant fantasy schemes, but
many are
primarily based in incomplete data - what happened last season. Just
because the Jets
were a dream opponent for DSTs last year doesn't make them so this
year, even if many signs point to
it. Could Jeremy Kerley and Stephen Hill be WR2s? That's probably
pushing it, but we won't know for sure they're not until we're into
about Week 5.
Much more quickly than expected, Randall Cobb went from sleeper to wide awake in just the first week of his much-hyped "breakout" season. But on Thursday, Packers' head coach Mike McCarthy pushed the snooze button, giving Cobb just two offensive touches despite the inactive status of stud WR Greg Jennings. That's not going to win any fantasy matchups for the folks who plugged-and-played him in Week 2. I feel even worse for those who rolled the dice on James Jones, who looked the part of a backup trying to be a starter, with a missed catch in the end zone and a rookiesque mistake in failing to complete a route that resulted in a Chicago interception. Lost in my offseason of research was the fact that Jennings is in a contract year, and could be traded midseason or simply not resigned by the Packers for 2013 and beyond. That puts a pretty significant crimp on his value, especially in keeper/dynasty leagues, given there is virtually no better spot for an elite receiver than in Green Bay. All the best QBs already have high-end No. 1s in place, so Jennings would have to settle for a slinger far inferior to Aaron Rodgers and just hope he sees double digit targets each game. Given the way Thursday looked without him, Green Bay may be willing to bring him back regardless of cost. If not, Cobb and Jones still retain a high speculative value. I'd take Cobb first, but Jones can't be totally dismissed until the situation is resolved.
The wait for Mikel Leshoure is down to one week, as millions of speculators have held on to him for his much-anticipated NFL debut, slated for Week Three. Unfortunately, Kevin Smith looked pretty strong as an all-purpose RB, giving the Lions no reason to rush Leshoure into a significant role. Add the possible return of Jahvid Best in Week 7, and you've got a muddied RB picture reminiscent of New Orleans'. Is there a Darren Sproles in there somewhere? Sure, but it's probably Smith, at least while he's healthy. Best is the electrifying but limited-touch Pierre Thomas, and Leshoure mimics Ingram or Ivory, at the goalline and killing the clock. But none has the sterling health record of Sproles, and each can probably act as an all-purpose back. So all any of them need is a couple of timely injuries to the other two (or even just one) to become a weekly RB2. Unlike most pundits, I don't think Kevin Smith is truly the one to own, but my inherent contrarian nature is at least part of that argument. I put the brakes on Smith because of his litany of injuries, and on Best because of his one-and-done concussion possibility. Leshoure has had a significant injury as well, no doubt, but I'm less worried about his durability than the other two. I think Leshoure comes out slow, but gets the lead job by midseason and rolls as an RB1 into the fantasy playoffs.
Saturday, September 8, 2012
Da Bills
Da Bills. That's my big secret for the 2012 fantasy football season. Da Bills.
In
my first column of last season, I made note of Pittsburgh's seemingly
spectacular fantasy playoff schedule, featuring home dates against
Cleveland in
Week 14 and St. Louis in Week 16. The Steelers DST disappointed me,
however, recording only 12 and 10 fantasy points in those weeks,
scarcely better than the average match-up play.
But I'm going back to the well on this one folks. It can't be dry this time, can it?
Though
hardly the dominant DST that the Steelers have traditionally boasted,
the Bills imported two critical components to their new-look defense.
D-guru Dave Wannstedt was handed the reins to this unit in early January
and Mario Williams (one of the most lethal pass rushers in the league)
was signed to a massive free agent contract. Those two factors alone
would not get me too excited about a DST that was middling at best last
year, but Buffalo's schedule does, as it should anyone else who would
otherwise have to stream.
The
start isn't exactly special, but it ain't bad either: at the Jets,
hosting the Chiefs, and then at Cleveland. Regadless of who is
quarterbacking the Jets, that there is a turnover on a silver platter,
and New York scored exactly one TD in the preseason. I think the Bills
have just as much a chance to score a defensive TD as the Jets do of
scoring an offensive one. Hosting KC is as good a matchup play as most
others in Week Two, and then the
Bills go to Cleveland. Facing a rookie QB (in this case Brandon Weedon)
is always a good thing.
The
midseason doesn't look nearly as rosy for the Bills (including two
dates against the Patriots) but the final two months sure do. Miami
twice, Indianapolis once, and three successive bone-chilling home dates
against milder-weather squads Jacksonville, St. Louis and Seattle in
Weeks 13, 14
and 15. And if
you're in one of those cooky leagues that insists on playing a Week 17
championship game, you get Sanchez-Tebow again, this time at home. I
can't say there isn't some fear of former castoff Marshawn Lynch going
all beast mode in his return to Ralph Wilson Stadium in Week 15, but as
long as Russell
Wilson (or any other relative unknown) is his QB that day, I'm willing
to take the risk. Looks like a title-winning DST that is flying well
under the radar. I have them in all my leagues and there's a pretty good
chance they're a free agent in yours.
Speaking
of all my leagues, I have once again made the mistake of signing up for
too many. I blame the length of the offseason, and my absolute
giddiness to get things underway. I keep thinking about all the
opportunities in all the different leagues (I'm gonna get Jimmy Graham
in one of them, by gosh!) and thus ultimately end up staring straight a
season where every single fantasy-relevant player will be represented
either on one of my rosters or one of my opponents' every single week.
And that just defeats the whole purpose. It's like playing free no-limit
hold 'em online. If you keep going all-in on the first hand every time,
eventually you're going to win one of those monster play money pots.
But what's the point? (Note to self - keep it to three or four. And drop
the league where
you have to start a punter. A punter!!!)
I
was pretty annoyed with my mediocre showing with last year's
season-opening predictions, so I'm not going to do anything nearly as
expansive this year. I'll just throw out a couple of my favorite
sleepers to see if I can awaken them:
1.
Jacquizz Rodgers. You may say he's no longer a sleeper, but his ADP is
not reflective of a player anyone is counting on. He's a popular
speculative pick, and with good reason. Unfortunately, the preseason did
not suggest anything will change this year in terms of usage, so if you
pick him early, you may have to wait awhile for the pick to pay
dividends. Given the fact that you win the money not in September but in
December (when Turner is worn down), Rodgers may be worth a full season
roster spot. His upside is on par with Darren Sproles, the 7th best(!)
fantasy RB in standard leagues last year, even better in PPR.
2.
Mikel Leshoure. Best to PUP, Kevin "Injury" Smith the starter.
Recovering from an Achilles injury is not easy, but Leshoure is one ding
to Smith away from potential superstardom. The Detroit backfield is
Russian roulette at this point in terms of injury risk, and Leshoure is
no exception. But he's much cheaper than Smith and will be back much
sooner than Best.
3.
Randall Cobb. Another popular sleeper, but
one for whom enthusiasm has waned recently due to the Packers'
commitment to veteran Donald Driver. But weren't Jordy Nelson and James
Jones fighting for one spot last year? How did that work out? I say Cobb
threatens all the starters' snaps by midseason, although he may still
be a hit-and-miss. But when he hits, ohhhhh baby!
4.
The Vikings trio of Christian Ponder, Kyle Rudolph and Jerome Simpson.
Ponder is gonna have to throw the
ball against some of these high-octane offenses he's facing. With AP
still on the mend, and with a year
under the already mature Ponder's belt, the ground game won't be as
much a point of reliance. Lost in many calculations is the emergence of
Rudolph as the newest of the red zone beast tight ends (6'6, 265) and
the apparent chemistry Ponder found with talented-but-raw Simpson in
training camp. Simpson is suspended until Week Four, but should provide
Ponder a great additional option once he returns. All three could
strengthen your bench considerably, and very very cheaply.
5. Kevin Ogletreee. Okay, I'm cheating on this one as he's already gone off for 100+ yards and two TDs. But I did have him on my most WR-needy team's watch list even before he exploded. The Cowboys have liked him for a long time, but he's never been consistent enough to get much playing time. He inherited the old Laurent Robinson gig as No. 3 receiver, and it looks like it may be the perfect fit. Don't forget that both Witten and Austin were not at 100 percent on Wednesday, so he probably got more targets than he will normally. But he's definitely earned Romo's trust for now, and Romo's good enough to find him with regularity. I would not hesitate to add him via waivers, especially if you are thin at WR.
Just like the last two years, I'll be sounding off in this blog every Saturday morning, a time when there always seems to be a gap in fresh content. And hopefully it won't just be a rehash of stuff from other sources earlier in the week, but rather some unique and interesting insight that might help you get a little edge over your peers this fantasy season.
It's great to be back folks, now let's kick this thing off!
5. Kevin Ogletreee. Okay, I'm cheating on this one as he's already gone off for 100+ yards and two TDs. But I did have him on my most WR-needy team's watch list even before he exploded. The Cowboys have liked him for a long time, but he's never been consistent enough to get much playing time. He inherited the old Laurent Robinson gig as No. 3 receiver, and it looks like it may be the perfect fit. Don't forget that both Witten and Austin were not at 100 percent on Wednesday, so he probably got more targets than he will normally. But he's definitely earned Romo's trust for now, and Romo's good enough to find him with regularity. I would not hesitate to add him via waivers, especially if you are thin at WR.
Just like the last two years, I'll be sounding off in this blog every Saturday morning, a time when there always seems to be a gap in fresh content. And hopefully it won't just be a rehash of stuff from other sources earlier in the week, but rather some unique and interesting insight that might help you get a little edge over your peers this fantasy season.
It's great to be back folks, now let's kick this thing off!
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Wideouts to the Rescue
Last week, I talked about some RBs that might emerge to become playoff heroes, and this week I'll take a stab at the wideouts who might do just the same.
This list begins and ends with Santana Moss. With three straight top five matchups on tap, and no Fred Davis around to steal targets, Moss easily has a chance to be a top 15 WR in the fantasy playoffs. It's not necessarily going to happen, but he'd be very difficult to leave out of my lineup as my third wideout. In a similar situation scheduling-wise is Jerome Simpson, at least for Weeks 15 (at St. Louis) and 16 (vs. Arizona). He's be more of a risk than Moss, but probably carries equal upside. His recent struggles have come against very tough opponents. As Jordy Nelson, Julio Jones and now Antonio Brown have shown, playing second fiddle to an elite No. 1 option isn't necessarily a bad thing as it actually decreases your coverages.
Now if you want a real Hail Mary, try Demariyus Thomas. Last week could be the beginning of a beautiful friendship between he and Tebow, and the two get New England's wildly unpredictable secondary at home in Week 15. I think if Eddie Royal is still out for that game, Thomas is a slam dunk.
This is likely my last column of the season, so I wanted to grade myself on my preseason predictions. How did I do?
The All Mid-Round Team
These are the guys that will not drafted among the tops at their position, but represent the best chance to produce as such in 2011 without carrying the hefty price tag. Feel great about getting them in Rounds 4-6.
QB: Matt Ryan
RBs: Felix Jones and Beanie Wells
WRs: Julio Jones, Mario Manningham and Kenny Britt
TE: Jimmy Graham
Grade: C+. Unfortunately, a bunch of these guys got injured, otherwise it may have been a different story. I was dead on about Graham, but Ryan proved to still be nothing better than a mid-level QB.
The All Reserve Team
These are guys likely to be drafted as reserves that could probably be played safely in any week this season. In my mind, the best just-outside-the-starters to own in terms of insurance and plug-and-play vs. most opponents. Superior depth guys.
QB: Eli Manning
RBs: Mike Tolbert and Brandon Jacobs
WRs: Emmanuel Sanders, Lance Moore and Lee Evans
TE: Brandon Pettigrew
Grade: B+. I whiffed on the wideouts, but the rest were fine, especially Manning, possibly the steal of most drafts.
The All Under-the-Radar Team
I can't believe I'm not hearing more buzz about these guys as viable fantasy plays. Not necessarily as starters from Day One, but depth guys with pretty good potential to fill a gap if needed. Don't forget about them.
QB: Kerry Collins
RBs: Willis McGahee and Dexter McCluster
WRs: Nate Burleson, Harry Douglas and Antonio Brown
TE: Lance Kendricks
Grade: C. The disparity between guys like Collins and Kendricks (useless) and McGahee and Brown (weekly starters) is pretty amazing. Burleson had his moments, but McCluster has been at best a desperation play.
The All Watch List Team
These guys will probably go undrafted in most leagues, but mark my words, they'll be in someone's active lineup at some point in every league before the season is through.
QB: Blaine Gabbert
RBs: Delone Carter and Montario Hardesty
WRs: Arrelious Benn, Titus Young and Denarius Moore
TE: Jared Cook
Grade: C. Apart from Moore's hot streak, these guys should have spent far more time in the free agent pool than on anyone's bench. But I didn't say they were going to be regulars!
The All Dynasty Team
These guys are probably not viable options for this year, but if you have available dynasty stashes for 2012 and beyond, go for it.
QB: Cam Newton
RBs: Taiwan Jones and Jacquizz Rodgers
WRs: Demariyus Thomas, Randall Cobb and Vincent Brown
TE: Evan Moore.
Grade: A-. Newton was a first-year wonder, Brown and Thomas are legitimately playable now, and I still like the looks of the other guys.
The All Overdraft Team
These guys are my predictions for biggest fantasy busts in 2011 based on their average draft position. Let someone else take their chances.
QB: Matt Schaub
RBs: Jahvid Best and Knowshon Moreno
WRs: Brandon Marshall, Brandon Lloyd and Chad Ochocinco
TE: Tony Gonzalez.
Grade: B. Jackpot on the RBs and Ochocinco, but missed badly on a resurgent Gonzalez. Marshall was about right for his ADP while Lloyd and Schaub were only minor disappointments.
My predictions for the top 5 fantasy producers at each position at season's end, in order (standing entering Week 14):
QB: Rodgers (1), Brady (4), Brees (3), Vick (injured), Ryan (8)
RB: AP (5-injured), Charles (IR), Rice (2), McFadden (injured), Foster (3)
WR: Calvin Johnson (1), Andre Johnson (inj), Larry Fitzgerald (9), Vincent Jackson (8), Mike Wallace (5)
TE: Gates (9-injured), Graham (2), Finley (6), Witten (4), Daniels (11)
Grade: B. Injuries were the only thing that got in my way, but that's fantasy football, right? Ryan and Daniels were clear failures, while my biggest omissions were McCoy and Gronkowski.
Grade Point Average: 2.76. Call it a sophomore slump.
Good luck in the playoffs everyone!
This list begins and ends with Santana Moss. With three straight top five matchups on tap, and no Fred Davis around to steal targets, Moss easily has a chance to be a top 15 WR in the fantasy playoffs. It's not necessarily going to happen, but he'd be very difficult to leave out of my lineup as my third wideout. In a similar situation scheduling-wise is Jerome Simpson, at least for Weeks 15 (at St. Louis) and 16 (vs. Arizona). He's be more of a risk than Moss, but probably carries equal upside. His recent struggles have come against very tough opponents. As Jordy Nelson, Julio Jones and now Antonio Brown have shown, playing second fiddle to an elite No. 1 option isn't necessarily a bad thing as it actually decreases your coverages.
Now if you want a real Hail Mary, try Demariyus Thomas. Last week could be the beginning of a beautiful friendship between he and Tebow, and the two get New England's wildly unpredictable secondary at home in Week 15. I think if Eddie Royal is still out for that game, Thomas is a slam dunk.
This is likely my last column of the season, so I wanted to grade myself on my preseason predictions. How did I do?
The All Mid-Round Team
These are the guys that will not drafted among the tops at their position, but represent the best chance to produce as such in 2011 without carrying the hefty price tag. Feel great about getting them in Rounds 4-6.
QB: Matt Ryan
RBs: Felix Jones and Beanie Wells
WRs: Julio Jones, Mario Manningham and Kenny Britt
TE: Jimmy Graham
Grade: C+. Unfortunately, a bunch of these guys got injured, otherwise it may have been a different story. I was dead on about Graham, but Ryan proved to still be nothing better than a mid-level QB.
The All Reserve Team
These are guys likely to be drafted as reserves that could probably be played safely in any week this season. In my mind, the best just-outside-the-starters to own in terms of insurance and plug-and-play vs. most opponents. Superior depth guys.
QB: Eli Manning
RBs: Mike Tolbert and Brandon Jacobs
WRs: Emmanuel Sanders, Lance Moore and Lee Evans
TE: Brandon Pettigrew
Grade: B+. I whiffed on the wideouts, but the rest were fine, especially Manning, possibly the steal of most drafts.
The All Under-the-Radar Team
I can't believe I'm not hearing more buzz about these guys as viable fantasy plays. Not necessarily as starters from Day One, but depth guys with pretty good potential to fill a gap if needed. Don't forget about them.
QB: Kerry Collins
RBs: Willis McGahee and Dexter McCluster
WRs: Nate Burleson, Harry Douglas and Antonio Brown
TE: Lance Kendricks
Grade: C. The disparity between guys like Collins and Kendricks (useless) and McGahee and Brown (weekly starters) is pretty amazing. Burleson had his moments, but McCluster has been at best a desperation play.
The All Watch List Team
These guys will probably go undrafted in most leagues, but mark my words, they'll be in someone's active lineup at some point in every league before the season is through.
QB: Blaine Gabbert
RBs: Delone Carter and Montario Hardesty
WRs: Arrelious Benn, Titus Young and Denarius Moore
TE: Jared Cook
Grade: C. Apart from Moore's hot streak, these guys should have spent far more time in the free agent pool than on anyone's bench. But I didn't say they were going to be regulars!
The All Dynasty Team
These guys are probably not viable options for this year, but if you have available dynasty stashes for 2012 and beyond, go for it.
QB: Cam Newton
RBs: Taiwan Jones and Jacquizz Rodgers
WRs: Demariyus Thomas, Randall Cobb and Vincent Brown
TE: Evan Moore.
Grade: A-. Newton was a first-year wonder, Brown and Thomas are legitimately playable now, and I still like the looks of the other guys.
The All Overdraft Team
These guys are my predictions for biggest fantasy busts in 2011 based on their average draft position. Let someone else take their chances.
QB: Matt Schaub
RBs: Jahvid Best and Knowshon Moreno
WRs: Brandon Marshall, Brandon Lloyd and Chad Ochocinco
TE: Tony Gonzalez.
Grade: B. Jackpot on the RBs and Ochocinco, but missed badly on a resurgent Gonzalez. Marshall was about right for his ADP while Lloyd and Schaub were only minor disappointments.
My predictions for the top 5 fantasy producers at each position at season's end, in order (standing entering Week 14):
QB: Rodgers (1), Brady (4), Brees (3), Vick (injured), Ryan (8)
RB: AP (5-injured), Charles (IR), Rice (2), McFadden (injured), Foster (3)
WR: Calvin Johnson (1), Andre Johnson (inj), Larry Fitzgerald (9), Vincent Jackson (8), Mike Wallace (5)
TE: Gates (9-injured), Graham (2), Finley (6), Witten (4), Daniels (11)
Grade: B. Injuries were the only thing that got in my way, but that's fantasy football, right? Ryan and Daniels were clear failures, while my biggest omissions were McCoy and Gronkowski.
Grade Point Average: 2.76. Call it a sophomore slump.
Good luck in the playoffs everyone!
Saturday, December 3, 2011
Blood Pressure Rising
I would like to have the personal pride to say my absence last week was inexcusable, but it was Thanksgiving, I was out of town, and my mother-in-law does not have wifi. I'm giving myself a break this time.
Anyway, it's Week 13, often one of the most exciting weeks of the fantasy season as the dividing line for many teams between in and out of the playoffs. One of the weird quirky things about fantasy football vs. real football. (Honestly, since I started playing fantasy football, I usually forget there is a Week 17 in the NFL season.)
I've found few things more thrilling than sneaking into the fantasy playoffs after being on the bubble all season long, and that usually comes courtesy of at least one unlikely wildcard. In Week 13, that will be Kevin Smith, Donald Brown and Marcel Reese. (And the 49ers DST, although as one of the top DST plays this year, that's hardly a wildcard. But against a St. Louis team with A.J. Feeley, the 49ers DST could win the week for an underdog.) Any of those three RBs could emerge as that guy that comes out of nowhere to be a hero in the fantasy playoffs. I love those guys. (Freakin' Tashard Choice won me the 2008 championship, scoring 20 fantasy points in Week 15 and 17 in Week 16.) Everyone loves those guys, except the owners that are beaten by them. (Sorry Jarod!)
Smith is particularly intriguing, provided he stays healthy. The very limited sample size nevertheless suggests he has the potential to put up numbers better than Jahvid Best in that offense. Brown's ceiling isn't quite as towering, but he's a godsend for someone who has been scrambling for anything resembling a featureback. And Reese, well, you could definitely do worse so long as McFadden and half of the Raiders' receiving corps is out. That is unlikely to last through the playoff weeks, but time will tell.
By the way, whoever scheduled Week 16 for Christmas weekend was an idiot. As if Christmas wasn't already stressful and chaotic enough. At least they put Arian Foster's dream Week 16 matchup against Indianapolis well ahead of time on Thursday, Dec. 22 (so Foster owners have time to enjoy and opponents have time to recover) and most of the rest of the action on Christmas Eve Saturday (none at night, thank you) rather than Christmas Day Sunday. But Saturday certainly won't be the end of the madness, unless your title game miraculously does not feature any of the studs on the Packers or Bears (playing Christmas Night) nor any of those on the Saints or Falcons (playing Monday night.) Part or me actually hopes I'm eliminated before then. A small part of me.
Anyway, it's Week 13, often one of the most exciting weeks of the fantasy season as the dividing line for many teams between in and out of the playoffs. One of the weird quirky things about fantasy football vs. real football. (Honestly, since I started playing fantasy football, I usually forget there is a Week 17 in the NFL season.)
I've found few things more thrilling than sneaking into the fantasy playoffs after being on the bubble all season long, and that usually comes courtesy of at least one unlikely wildcard. In Week 13, that will be Kevin Smith, Donald Brown and Marcel Reese. (And the 49ers DST, although as one of the top DST plays this year, that's hardly a wildcard. But against a St. Louis team with A.J. Feeley, the 49ers DST could win the week for an underdog.) Any of those three RBs could emerge as that guy that comes out of nowhere to be a hero in the fantasy playoffs. I love those guys. (Freakin' Tashard Choice won me the 2008 championship, scoring 20 fantasy points in Week 15 and 17 in Week 16.) Everyone loves those guys, except the owners that are beaten by them. (Sorry Jarod!)
Smith is particularly intriguing, provided he stays healthy. The very limited sample size nevertheless suggests he has the potential to put up numbers better than Jahvid Best in that offense. Brown's ceiling isn't quite as towering, but he's a godsend for someone who has been scrambling for anything resembling a featureback. And Reese, well, you could definitely do worse so long as McFadden and half of the Raiders' receiving corps is out. That is unlikely to last through the playoff weeks, but time will tell.
By the way, whoever scheduled Week 16 for Christmas weekend was an idiot. As if Christmas wasn't already stressful and chaotic enough. At least they put Arian Foster's dream Week 16 matchup against Indianapolis well ahead of time on Thursday, Dec. 22 (so Foster owners have time to enjoy and opponents have time to recover) and most of the rest of the action on Christmas Eve Saturday (none at night, thank you) rather than Christmas Day Sunday. But Saturday certainly won't be the end of the madness, unless your title game miraculously does not feature any of the studs on the Packers or Bears (playing Christmas Night) nor any of those on the Saints or Falcons (playing Monday night.) Part or me actually hopes I'm eliminated before then. A small part of me.
Saturday, November 19, 2011
Playoff Matchups, Part II
I addressed "being prepared" in my last column, but over the course of additional research I noticed a few more things about the playoff matchups. These observations are unlikely to help you, but they are interesting nonetheless.
Arian Foster is going to dominate. While he's always the prohibitive favorite to be the top-ranked RB in any given week, take a look at who he draws in Weeks 15 and 16: Carolina and Indianapolis, two of the most generous rush defenses. That makes Ben Tate an even more intriguing play, especially with the Texans sure to go even more run-heavy under Leinart and the possibility of Foster's workload being strategically limited. I would have no problem playing Tate as a reliable RB2 in both of those games, ahead of guys like Shonn Greene and Cedric Benson. You could conceivably play Foster and Tate in the same lineup in both games and do quite well for yourself.
DeMarco Murray is another guy who has the chance to explode, as he also has two of the top five most attractive opponents for RBs: Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. At this point, it's inconceivable that Felix Jones will return to the starting role but even he may be usable against those two if you don't have a better option.
Tom Brady draws the long straw among the quarterbacks, getting Denver and Miami, but the most intriguing play by far is Tim Tebow. Tebow against the Patriots deservedly maligned defense in Week 15 has the makings of a fantasy gold mine, and the floor is probably very high for both QBs there. You obviously play Brady if you've got him, and Tebow is at least a Top 10 play. Tebow gets another good matchup in Week 16 at Buffalo, and given his M.O., adverse weather is unlikely to diminish his value.
As the quarterbacks go, so too the wideouts, making Wes Welker one of the best playoff option, but we know now not to trust any of Tebow's receivers. Also looking extremely good for the final two weeks (15/16) are A.J. Green and Brandon Marshall. I wouldn't jump on any other Miami receiver ahead of my normal guys, but I would consider Jerome Simpson and possibly Deion Branch for my third WR spot.
The negative side may be an even greater consideration for you, as savvy juggling may be required to avoid guys that will end up as liabilities. For the passing game, Arizona, Philadelphia, St. Louis, San Diego and the Giants all have tough sledding ahead in Weeks 15 and 16. Now I'm not saying bench your studs, I'm just saying don't expect them to BE studs. You MAY consider benching former studs that haven't been so this season, with Philip Rivers and Desean Jackson being the most glaring examples. Among the running backs, I mentioned Steven Jackson last week, but Ryan Mathews has an even tougher draw, including Baltimore in Week 15. And if you were thinking of playing a resurrected Marshawn Lynch, you might want to think again, as he has Chicago in Week 15 and the RB-killing 49ers in championship week.
Arian Foster is going to dominate. While he's always the prohibitive favorite to be the top-ranked RB in any given week, take a look at who he draws in Weeks 15 and 16: Carolina and Indianapolis, two of the most generous rush defenses. That makes Ben Tate an even more intriguing play, especially with the Texans sure to go even more run-heavy under Leinart and the possibility of Foster's workload being strategically limited. I would have no problem playing Tate as a reliable RB2 in both of those games, ahead of guys like Shonn Greene and Cedric Benson. You could conceivably play Foster and Tate in the same lineup in both games and do quite well for yourself.
DeMarco Murray is another guy who has the chance to explode, as he also has two of the top five most attractive opponents for RBs: Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. At this point, it's inconceivable that Felix Jones will return to the starting role but even he may be usable against those two if you don't have a better option.
Tom Brady draws the long straw among the quarterbacks, getting Denver and Miami, but the most intriguing play by far is Tim Tebow. Tebow against the Patriots deservedly maligned defense in Week 15 has the makings of a fantasy gold mine, and the floor is probably very high for both QBs there. You obviously play Brady if you've got him, and Tebow is at least a Top 10 play. Tebow gets another good matchup in Week 16 at Buffalo, and given his M.O., adverse weather is unlikely to diminish his value.
As the quarterbacks go, so too the wideouts, making Wes Welker one of the best playoff option, but we know now not to trust any of Tebow's receivers. Also looking extremely good for the final two weeks (15/16) are A.J. Green and Brandon Marshall. I wouldn't jump on any other Miami receiver ahead of my normal guys, but I would consider Jerome Simpson and possibly Deion Branch for my third WR spot.
The negative side may be an even greater consideration for you, as savvy juggling may be required to avoid guys that will end up as liabilities. For the passing game, Arizona, Philadelphia, St. Louis, San Diego and the Giants all have tough sledding ahead in Weeks 15 and 16. Now I'm not saying bench your studs, I'm just saying don't expect them to BE studs. You MAY consider benching former studs that haven't been so this season, with Philip Rivers and Desean Jackson being the most glaring examples. Among the running backs, I mentioned Steven Jackson last week, but Ryan Mathews has an even tougher draw, including Baltimore in Week 15. And if you were thinking of playing a resurrected Marshawn Lynch, you might want to think again, as he has Chicago in Week 15 and the RB-killing 49ers in championship week.
Saturday, November 12, 2011
The Boy Scout Motto
Be prepared.
That's great advice for those of you lucky enough to be in contention for the fantasy football playoffs, and now is the perfect time to get the jump on your competitors.
No byes this week, meaning everyone is back to playing their studs. But some may easily forget that there ARE byes next week, involving some major major players. Don't make that mistake. As you are shifting into potential playoff mode, remember you still need to fill any holes for next week before looking beyond.
Conspiracy theorists might have a field day with the Week 11 byes: Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh and Houston. That's a mad collection of fantasy talent, and would have been far greater if not for the Peyton Manning injury. The bye teams will certainly have an effect on a supremely critical late-season fantasy week.
By now, you know what you need to do to navigate pitfalls like that, and hopefully you are set for them. And if you are one of the fortunate ones that doesn't rely on those teams, get your postseason roster ready.
For example, drop Dallas Clark for sure. Even if he's back, the guy will not have the right answers for you in Weeks 14-16 and a matchup play is the safer option. You can safely cut the cord on studs-turned-duds like Clark, Knowshon Moreno, DeAngelo Williams, Joe Flacco and Austin Collie. They're not turning the corner anytime soon, so why hold on? A little more caution is urged for guys like Matt Ryan, Chris Johnson and Mike Williams. They MIGHT turn the corner. And if you own Jahvid Best, well, your call, but I think it's more than safe to jump ship on Manning at this point for those of you who have been desperately clinging to his non-IR status.
If Best ends up gone for the season, there is fertile ground for a running back to excel in his stead. Maurice Morris appears to be No. 1 for now, but familiar face Kevin Smith has been brought back with good reviews. And Keiland Williams is built as a goalline vulture. Tough to decide, but Morris is your first play, with Smith and Williams available for the truly desperate or dart-throwing owners. Another dart? How about Tashard Choice? It's only a matter of time for any RB when Mike Shanahan gets a hold of him. Both Detroit and Washington have reasonably favorable playoff schedules for fantasy RBs.
Which brings me to the most critical point of this entry: look at the playoff matchups now. If you are rotating 2-3 guys through one position based on matchups, plan well ahead. You may not have a good option at third wideout for Week 15, so grab a free agent who is. Steven Jackson owners probably know already they'll be hurting against Seattle, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in Weeks 14-16, but perhaps still have time to construct a crafty trade.
And I've said it before, and I'll say it again - get those DSTs lined up. My preseason prediction for the stud Steelers having the perfect storm of a playoff schedule hasn't exactly lined up in either regard, but they're not the only trick in the bag. Buffalo and Tennessee might very well be available now or in the near future in your pool, and present a wealth of opportunity in the win-or-go-home weeks. The Bills, an unexpectedly strong and consistent DST, visit turnover machine San Diego in Week 14 (although that would be a bold play) followed by home games vs. Miami and Denver in what will likely be defense-favoring weather. The Titans, a former stud DST that hasn't lived up to it this year, may draw big-time redemption in Week 15 at Indianapolis and Week 16 at home vs. Jacksonville, representing two of the most favorable opponents.
That's great advice for those of you lucky enough to be in contention for the fantasy football playoffs, and now is the perfect time to get the jump on your competitors.
No byes this week, meaning everyone is back to playing their studs. But some may easily forget that there ARE byes next week, involving some major major players. Don't make that mistake. As you are shifting into potential playoff mode, remember you still need to fill any holes for next week before looking beyond.
Conspiracy theorists might have a field day with the Week 11 byes: Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh and Houston. That's a mad collection of fantasy talent, and would have been far greater if not for the Peyton Manning injury. The bye teams will certainly have an effect on a supremely critical late-season fantasy week.
By now, you know what you need to do to navigate pitfalls like that, and hopefully you are set for them. And if you are one of the fortunate ones that doesn't rely on those teams, get your postseason roster ready.
For example, drop Dallas Clark for sure. Even if he's back, the guy will not have the right answers for you in Weeks 14-16 and a matchup play is the safer option. You can safely cut the cord on studs-turned-duds like Clark, Knowshon Moreno, DeAngelo Williams, Joe Flacco and Austin Collie. They're not turning the corner anytime soon, so why hold on? A little more caution is urged for guys like Matt Ryan, Chris Johnson and Mike Williams. They MIGHT turn the corner. And if you own Jahvid Best, well, your call, but I think it's more than safe to jump ship on Manning at this point for those of you who have been desperately clinging to his non-IR status.
If Best ends up gone for the season, there is fertile ground for a running back to excel in his stead. Maurice Morris appears to be No. 1 for now, but familiar face Kevin Smith has been brought back with good reviews. And Keiland Williams is built as a goalline vulture. Tough to decide, but Morris is your first play, with Smith and Williams available for the truly desperate or dart-throwing owners. Another dart? How about Tashard Choice? It's only a matter of time for any RB when Mike Shanahan gets a hold of him. Both Detroit and Washington have reasonably favorable playoff schedules for fantasy RBs.
Which brings me to the most critical point of this entry: look at the playoff matchups now. If you are rotating 2-3 guys through one position based on matchups, plan well ahead. You may not have a good option at third wideout for Week 15, so grab a free agent who is. Steven Jackson owners probably know already they'll be hurting against Seattle, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in Weeks 14-16, but perhaps still have time to construct a crafty trade.
And I've said it before, and I'll say it again - get those DSTs lined up. My preseason prediction for the stud Steelers having the perfect storm of a playoff schedule hasn't exactly lined up in either regard, but they're not the only trick in the bag. Buffalo and Tennessee might very well be available now or in the near future in your pool, and present a wealth of opportunity in the win-or-go-home weeks. The Bills, an unexpectedly strong and consistent DST, visit turnover machine San Diego in Week 14 (although that would be a bold play) followed by home games vs. Miami and Denver in what will likely be defense-favoring weather. The Titans, a former stud DST that hasn't lived up to it this year, may draw big-time redemption in Week 15 at Indianapolis and Week 16 at home vs. Jacksonville, representing two of the most favorable opponents.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)