Wideouts to the Rescue

Last week, I talked about some RBs that might emerge to become playoff heroes, and this week I'll take a stab at the wideouts who might do just the same.

This list begins and ends with Santana Moss. With three straight top five matchups on tap, and no Fred Davis around to steal targets, Moss easily has a chance to be a top 15 WR in the fantasy playoffs. It's not necessarily going to happen, but he'd be very difficult to leave out of my lineup as my third wideout. In a similar situation scheduling-wise is Jerome Simpson, at least for Weeks 15 (at St. Louis) and 16 (vs. Arizona). He's be more of a risk than Moss, but probably carries equal upside. His recent struggles have come against very tough opponents. As Jordy Nelson, Julio Jones and now Antonio Brown have shown, playing second fiddle to an elite No. 1 option isn't necessarily a bad thing as it actually decreases your coverages.

Now if you want a real Hail Mary, try Demariyus Thomas. Last week could be the beginning of a beautiful friendship between he and Tebow, and the two get New England's wildly unpredictable secondary at home in Week 15. I think if Eddie Royal is still out for that game, Thomas is a slam dunk.

This is likely my last column of the season, so I wanted to grade myself on my preseason predictions. How did I do?

The All Mid-Round Team
These are the guys that will not drafted among the tops at their position, but represent the best chance to produce as such in 2011 without carrying the hefty price tag. Feel great about getting them in Rounds 4-6.
QB: Matt Ryan
RBs: Felix Jones and Beanie Wells
WRs: Julio Jones, Mario Manningham and Kenny Britt
TE: Jimmy Graham
Grade: C+. Unfortunately, a bunch of these guys got injured, otherwise it may have been a different story. I was dead on about Graham, but Ryan proved to still be nothing better than a mid-level QB.

The All Reserve Team
These are guys likely to be drafted as reserves that could probably be played safely in any week this season. In my mind, the best just-outside-the-starters to own in terms of insurance and plug-and-play vs. most opponents. Superior depth guys.
QB: Eli Manning
RBs: Mike Tolbert and Brandon Jacobs
WRs: Emmanuel Sanders, Lance Moore and Lee Evans
TE: Brandon Pettigrew
Grade: B+. I whiffed on the wideouts, but the rest were fine, especially Manning, possibly the steal of most drafts.

The All Under-the-Radar Team
I can't believe I'm not hearing more buzz about these guys as viable fantasy plays. Not necessarily as starters from Day One, but depth guys with pretty good potential to fill a gap if needed. Don't forget about them.
QB: Kerry Collins
RBs: Willis McGahee and Dexter McCluster
WRs: Nate Burleson, Harry Douglas and Antonio Brown
TE: Lance Kendricks
Grade: C. The disparity between guys like Collins and Kendricks (useless) and McGahee and Brown (weekly starters) is pretty amazing. Burleson had his moments, but McCluster has been at best a desperation play.

The All Watch List Team
These guys will probably go undrafted in most leagues, but mark my words, they'll be in someone's active lineup at some point in every league before the season is through.
QB: Blaine Gabbert
RBs: Delone Carter and Montario Hardesty
WRs: Arrelious Benn, Titus Young and Denarius Moore
TE: Jared Cook
Grade: C. Apart from Moore's hot streak, these guys should have spent far more time in the free agent pool than on anyone's bench. But I didn't say they were going to be regulars!

The All Dynasty Team
These guys are probably not viable options for this year, but if you have available dynasty stashes for 2012 and beyond, go for it.
QB: Cam Newton
RBs: Taiwan Jones and Jacquizz Rodgers
WRs: Demariyus Thomas, Randall Cobb and Vincent Brown
TE: Evan Moore.
Grade: A-. Newton was a first-year wonder, Brown and Thomas are legitimately playable now, and I still like the looks of the other guys.

The All Overdraft Team
These guys are my predictions for biggest fantasy busts in 2011 based on their average draft position. Let someone else take their chances.
QB: Matt Schaub
RBs: Jahvid Best and Knowshon Moreno
WRs: Brandon Marshall, Brandon Lloyd and Chad Ochocinco
TE: Tony Gonzalez.
Grade: B. Jackpot on the RBs and Ochocinco, but missed badly on a resurgent Gonzalez. Marshall was about right for his ADP while Lloyd and Schaub were only minor disappointments.

My predictions for the top 5 fantasy producers at each position at season's end, in order (standing entering Week 14):
QB: Rodgers (1), Brady (4), Brees (3), Vick (injured), Ryan (8)
RB: AP (5-injured), Charles (IR), Rice (2), McFadden (injured), Foster (3)
WR: Calvin Johnson (1), Andre Johnson (inj), Larry Fitzgerald (9), Vincent Jackson (8), Mike Wallace (5)
TE: Gates (9-injured), Graham (2), Finley (6), Witten (4), Daniels (11)
Grade: B. Injuries were the only thing that got in my way, but that's fantasy football, right? Ryan and Daniels were clear failures, while my biggest omissions were McCoy and Gronkowski.

Grade Point Average: 2.76. Call it a sophomore slump.

Good luck in the playoffs everyone!

Blood Pressure Rising

I would like to have the personal pride to say my absence last week was inexcusable, but it was Thanksgiving, I was out of town, and my mother-in-law does not have wifi. I'm giving myself a break this time.

Anyway, it's Week 13, often one of the most exciting weeks of the fantasy season as the dividing line for many teams between in and out of the playoffs. One of the weird quirky things about fantasy football vs. real football. (Honestly, since I started playing fantasy football, I usually forget there is a Week 17 in the NFL season.)

I've found few things more thrilling than sneaking into the fantasy playoffs after being on the bubble all season long, and that usually comes courtesy of at least one unlikely wildcard. In Week 13, that will be Kevin Smith, Donald Brown and Marcel Reese. (And the 49ers DST, although as one of the top DST plays this year, that's hardly a wildcard. But against a St. Louis team with A.J. Feeley, the 49ers DST could win the week for an underdog.) Any of those three RBs could emerge as that guy that comes out of nowhere to be a hero in the fantasy playoffs. I love those guys. (Freakin' Tashard Choice won me the 2008 championship, scoring 20 fantasy points in Week 15 and 17 in Week 16.) Everyone loves those guys, except the owners that are beaten by them. (Sorry Jarod!)

Smith is particularly intriguing, provided he stays healthy. The very limited sample size nevertheless suggests he has the potential to put up numbers better than Jahvid Best in that offense. Brown's ceiling isn't quite as towering, but he's a godsend for someone who has been scrambling for anything resembling a featureback. And Reese, well, you could definitely do worse so long as McFadden and half of the Raiders' receiving corps is out. That is unlikely to last through the playoff weeks, but time will tell.

By the way, whoever scheduled Week 16 for Christmas weekend was an idiot. As if Christmas wasn't already stressful and chaotic enough. At least they put Arian Foster's dream Week 16 matchup against Indianapolis well ahead of time on Thursday, Dec. 22 (so Foster owners have time to enjoy and opponents have time to recover) and most of the rest of the action on Christmas Eve Saturday (none at night, thank you) rather than Christmas Day Sunday. But Saturday certainly won't be the end of the madness, unless your title game miraculously does not feature any of the studs on the Packers or Bears (playing Christmas Night) nor any of those on the Saints or Falcons (playing Monday night.) Part or me actually hopes I'm eliminated before then. A small part of me.

Playoff Matchups, Part II

I addressed "being prepared" in my last column, but over the course of additional research I noticed a few more things about the playoff matchups. These observations are unlikely to help you, but they are interesting nonetheless.

Arian Foster is going to dominate. While he's always the prohibitive favorite to be the top-ranked RB in any given week, take a look at who he draws in Weeks 15 and 16: Carolina and Indianapolis, two of the most generous rush defenses. That makes Ben Tate an even more intriguing play, especially with the Texans sure to go even more run-heavy under Leinart and the possibility of Foster's workload being strategically limited. I would have no problem playing Tate as a reliable RB2 in both of those games, ahead of guys like Shonn Greene and Cedric Benson. You could conceivably play Foster and Tate in the same lineup in both games and do quite well for yourself.

DeMarco Murray is another guy who has the chance to explode, as he also has two of the top five most attractive opponents for RBs: Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. At this point, it's inconceivable that Felix Jones will return to the starting role but even he may be usable against those two if you don't have a better option.

Tom Brady draws the long straw among the quarterbacks, getting Denver and Miami, but the most intriguing play by far is Tim Tebow. Tebow against the Patriots deservedly maligned defense in Week 15 has the makings of a fantasy gold mine, and the floor is probably very high for both QBs there. You obviously play Brady if you've got him, and Tebow is at least a Top 10 play. Tebow gets another good matchup in Week 16 at Buffalo, and given his M.O., adverse weather is unlikely to diminish his value.

As the quarterbacks go, so too the wideouts, making Wes Welker one of the best playoff option, but we know now not to trust any of Tebow's receivers. Also looking extremely good for the final two weeks (15/16) are A.J. Green and Brandon Marshall. I wouldn't jump on any other Miami receiver ahead of my normal guys, but I would consider Jerome Simpson and possibly Deion Branch for my third WR spot.

The negative side may be an even greater consideration for you, as savvy juggling may be required to avoid guys that will end up as liabilities. For the passing game, Arizona, Philadelphia, St. Louis, San Diego and the Giants all have tough sledding ahead in Weeks 15 and 16. Now I'm not saying bench your studs, I'm just saying don't expect them to BE studs. You MAY consider benching former studs that haven't been so this season, with Philip Rivers and Desean Jackson being the most glaring examples. Among the running backs, I mentioned Steven Jackson last week, but Ryan Mathews has an even tougher draw, including Baltimore in Week 15. And if you were thinking of playing a resurrected Marshawn Lynch, you might want to think again, as he has Chicago in Week 15 and the RB-killing 49ers in championship week.

The Boy Scout Motto

Be prepared.

That's great advice for those of you lucky enough to be in contention for the fantasy football playoffs, and now is the perfect time to get the jump on your competitors.

No byes this week, meaning everyone is back to playing their studs. But some may easily forget that there ARE byes next week, involving some major major players. Don't make that mistake. As you are shifting into potential playoff mode, remember you still need to fill any holes for next week before looking beyond.

Conspiracy theorists might have a field day with the Week 11 byes: Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh and Houston. That's a mad collection of fantasy talent, and would have been far greater if not for the Peyton Manning injury. The bye teams will certainly have an effect on a supremely critical late-season fantasy week.

By now, you know what you need to do to navigate pitfalls like that, and hopefully you are set for them. And if you are one of the fortunate ones that doesn't rely on those teams, get your postseason roster ready.

For example, drop Dallas Clark for sure. Even if he's back, the guy will not have the right answers for you in Weeks 14-16 and a matchup play is the safer option. You can safely cut the cord on studs-turned-duds like Clark, Knowshon Moreno, DeAngelo Williams, Joe Flacco and Austin Collie. They're not turning the corner anytime soon, so why hold on? A little more caution is urged for guys like Matt Ryan, Chris Johnson and Mike Williams. They MIGHT turn the corner. And if you own Jahvid Best, well, your call, but I think it's more than safe to jump ship on Manning at this point for those of you who have been desperately clinging to his non-IR status.

If Best ends up gone for the season, there is fertile ground for a running back to excel in his stead. Maurice Morris appears to be No. 1 for now, but familiar face Kevin Smith has been brought back with good reviews. And Keiland Williams is built as a goalline vulture. Tough to decide, but Morris is your first play, with Smith and Williams available for the truly desperate or dart-throwing owners. Another dart? How about Tashard Choice? It's only a matter of time for any RB when Mike Shanahan gets a hold of him. Both Detroit and Washington have reasonably favorable playoff schedules for fantasy RBs.

Which brings me to the most critical point of this entry: look at the playoff matchups now. If you are rotating 2-3 guys through one position based on matchups, plan well ahead. You may not have a good option at third wideout for Week 15, so grab a free agent who is. Steven Jackson owners probably know already they'll be hurting against Seattle, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in Weeks 14-16, but perhaps still have time to construct a crafty trade.

And I've said it before, and I'll say it again - get those DSTs lined up. My preseason prediction for the stud Steelers having the perfect storm of a playoff schedule hasn't exactly lined up in either regard, but they're not the only trick in the bag. Buffalo and Tennessee might very well be available now or in the near future in your pool, and present a wealth of opportunity in the win-or-go-home weeks. The Bills, an unexpectedly strong and consistent DST, visit turnover machine San Diego in Week 14 (although that would be a bold play) followed by home games vs. Miami and Denver in what will likely be defense-favoring weather. The Titans, a former stud DST that hasn't lived up to it this year, may draw big-time redemption in Week 15 at Indianapolis and Week 16 at home vs. Jacksonville, representing two of the most favorable opponents.

Thirsty for Thursday

Thursday Night Football is back! Yes!

Now we fantasy junkies have a little fix to tide us over between Sundays. And this week's game is going to be a pretty good one for fantasy followers.

We know Darren McFadden is out, so Michael Bush is an easy play. And ignoring Taiwan Jones also seems logical given his rather surprising (to me) lack of action last week. But where do we go with Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert? I think the ceiling is limited on both because they'll split carries, but it's still a very porous run defense and a charged divisional game. I honestly like either as a starting RB2 this week, projecting at 10-15 points apiece. Slight edge to Tolbert given likely goalline carries and that Mathews is just off an injury, but Mathews could easily rip off a long TD.

For the receivers, Vincent Jackson is the only automatic, but at least five others merit consideration. Denarius Moore was a target hog in Carson Palmer's first start in a Raider uni, suggesting there may be some instant chemistry between the two. Major major upside if true as Moore has shown Kenny Britt-type flashes and Palmer is certainly capable of throwing the ball. Jacoby Ford looked pretty darn good as well, leading the Raider wideouts in receptions, yardage and fantasy points. Vanishing was Darrius Heyward-Bey, but he had put together three straight strong fantasy showings prior to that. If Malcom Floyd is active, he's worth a play as your third WR, and if he doesn't play, you could do worse than rookie Vincent Brown. Brown is best viewed as an under-the-radar dynasty hold, but would be on the radar extremely quickly if he puts up another 79 yards like last week. Today might be the last day to get him for nothing.

Palmer had a strong fantasy day last week, but I'm not buying yet. Backup maybe, but nothing more than a dart as a starter. Philip Rivers finally put up an elite fantasy number last week, but he's been maddeningly mediocre for most of the season. But you have to put him in there again if you don't have a clearly better option and Antonio Gates is the reason.

Either DST would be a desperation play given much safer alternatives like available, but there is at least some upside.

Status and Strategy

You're halfway to fantasy heaven - the football championship.

If you're actually reading this blog then, like me, you have an addiction. And nothing feeds that addiction like success. So if you're 6-2 or better, I applaud you, and I feel bad for your family. If you're 2-6 or worse, I encourage you to continue to make a good fight, and I feel bad for your family.

If you're part of the latter crew, you'll probably have to run the table over the next five weeks in order to make the playoffs. That ain't happening unless you're ridiculously lucky. But that doesn't mean you shouldn't bother anymore. As a courtesy to other owners in contention and to maintain the integrity of competition, continue to make your claims and set your optimal lineup. Winning can still be fun. An added bonus is being able to play some players you like more than others even if they aren't the "best" choices each week. You don't have to throw a game, but you can make alternative choices based on preserving an element of fun for yourself. For me, that might mean playing all the Green Bay Packers in one week. Seriously! That would not be a terrible starting lineup, particularly in a favorable matchup.

(As an aside for those in keeper leagues, stock up now! If you're 2-6 like me, forget about matchups coming up and go directly to next year. As promised, I added Mikel Leshoure as a high-probability lottery ticket.)

If you're in the elite 6-2 or better (and it is elite - in a competitive league, you have to be lucky AND good) take a moment to pat yourself on the back and then get back to business. Your focus has certainly been part of your solid run. Don't make the mistake of switching to cruise control. In your advantaged position, you can trade from a position of power, acquiring a more fitting starter or backup from a more desperate owner without compromising what you've got. You can also consider rostering less-than-obvious handcuffs (Matt Flynn for Aaron Rodgers, for example) for outstanding peace of mind. And if you're streaming through one or more positions, definitely start looking at least one full week ahead so you're not in a waiver fight each week.

For no position is this more effective than for Defense / Special Teams. Streaming there is a very popular strategy, so chances are owners are lining up to make their claims and you're just lucky if you get who you want. Reduce the luck factor. Look ahead to Weeks 10 and 11 now and notice that the Browns are hosting the Rams and the Jaguars back-to-back. The Browns DST hasn't been anything special, but they've done fine against the favorable opponents, and few are more favorable than those.

That also makes Chris Ogbonnaya an even better flyer. His longest run last week was only seven yards, but that was against a stout 49ers defense. Houston isn't much more favorable this week, but next week he should be far more effective against the St. Louis front seven if Hillis and Hardesty are still out. And lost in the mix is that he catches the ball as well as any RB having started his college career as a wideout. (He had eight targets last week!) He's not as physically intimidating as Hillis, but 6'0, 225 ain't small.

Taiwan Jones has to qualify for the short-term replacement list as well with McFadden on the shelf for who knows how long. This is a team built to run, and Jones is actually the fastest RB they've got. I think a lot of people will be surprised at how many carries he gets and how much he does with them. Michael Bush CAN carry the load (he's done it in limited fashion before) but I don't think the Raiders feel that doing that is their best option. I'm predicting no better than a 2-to-1 ratio of carries favoring Bush, and with this team's penchant for the ground game, that means at least 10-12 carries for Jones. I'm also predicting Jones to be the far more effective per-carry guy, but probably because he is able to break off one or two monsters against an unsuspecting Denver defense. Bush is still your goalline back and should have no trouble punching at least one in.

But if you're 6-2, you're unlikely to need either Ogbonnaya or Jones. Those guys are perfect for the 3-5 teams that drafted Hillis or Moreno or a host of other RBs that simply haven't been there.

The 3-5 to 5-3 teams probably have the most fun remaining through the rest of the fantasy regular season. Nothing like a playoff race to ramp up the intensity of each week, particularly when your opponent that week is in the very same race! If you're in that mix, keep doing what you've been doing: optimal combinations, sound reserves and measured risk. You're well past the draft and diamond-in-the-rough stage. You obviously increase your risk if you're on the 3-5 side, but don't go crazy - yet. Like I said, Ogbonnaya and Jones are perfect for you.

Vanishing Act

Another one of my man crushes bites the dust.

First, it was Dexter McCluster. Now, it's Titus Young.

The rookie wideout, who has drawn comparisons to Desean Jackson, appears to be in a fantasy freefall since breaking out with five catches for 89 yards in Week 2. In Week 3, that dropped to four catches for 51 yards. In the past four weeks, you guessed it, 3 for 41, 2 for 14, 1 for 14, and finally 0 for 0 last week. It's a very disappointing downward trend for a guy who was supposed to be a kind of Julio Jones lite, a solid second fiddle to an elite receiver in a strong all-around offense.

Seven weeks in, we have enough information to label guys busts or breakouts. Being a rookie, it's tough to label Young a bust, but he's not a guy you can trust anytime soon. Ditto Robert Meachem. Coinciding directly with the return to prominence of Marques Colston and the surprising emergence of Darren Sproles as a truly dominant factor in the receiving game, Meachem's disappearance has left him alongside fellow Saints afterthoughts Lance Moore and Devery Henderson.

It may be just my impression, but it seems as though WRs in general are the least reliable fantasy commodities, which is why I rarely prioritize them in drafts, although there is an at least equally compelling argument against that strategy. The rationale argument accurately suggests there are frequently less than 10 wideouts you can count on to be every week fantasy starts, so why not grab them as early as possible to lock up the more elusive spots on your roster? The Fred Jacksons and DeMarco Murrays occur with regularity every year, so you can always find an RB2 with upside, but a Miles Austin type breakout is much rarer.

I stick with my strategy though, securing my RB spots plus an elite QB before even considering a wideout. By that time, the top 10 are gone and I'm left with a big pile of hopefully more hit than miss. Desean Jackson is the poster boy for this.

But it's not the failed wideout that will sink you, it's the failed RB1. (Failed QB1s are even rarer than Miles Austin type breakouts. You almost always get what you pay for there.) That honor this season belongs to Chris Johnson, although Rashard Mendenhall is making a good case. Throw in injuries to Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Steven Jackson and Peyton Hillis, and you're looking at six of the top 12 RBs not delivering any value close to draft expectations. And RB2s like Knowshon Moreno and DeAngelo Williams are even larger albatrosses if you were counting on one to be a weekly play for you. That's where the Fred Jacksons and DeMarco Murrays can save you if you're savvy enough to draft an insurance policy (Jackson) or lucky enough to hit the lottery (Murray).

Jackson might be the least likely fantasy MVP in history. Arian Foster was at least speculated to be a sleeper prior to 2010, and was usually drafted in the fifth round or better. Jackson was a lost cause, with his great starting stats from 2010 buried behind his advancing age (30) and the still-never-found-promise of C.J. Spiller.

Jackson may still have a ways to catch Aaron Rodgers this year. Another part of my draft strategy is to forego a backup QB when I draft an elite guy early. That gives me an extra roster spot to fool around with, but leaves me very exposed to a potential injury and of course the bye week. I was hoping my sneaky acquisition of Sam Bradford last week was going to pay off in a potential shootout vs. New Orleans, but alas, I'm stuck with Christian Ponder.

Blaine Gabbert was my first choice on the All Watch List team at the start of the season, and he's advanced to the starting position quicker than Ponder, but Ponder was universally tabbed as the most pro-ready of the 2011 draft class and now he'll get the chance to show it. Given the way Donovan McNabb has been fading it terms of effectiveness, this change can only be good news for the Vikings skill players. Perhaps Percy Harvin will finally emerge as the dominant wildcard wideout he's always been projected to be.

Sneaky Plays
I'm going to dip my toe in a little bit once more. No specifics, but I do expect these guys to be very playable with good upside this week, significantly exceeding their weekly season average:

Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown: I actually think both will have decent fantasy days even if Hines Ward plays. This has the makings of the highest scoring contest of the weekend.

Evan Moore and Greg Little: The switch is very close to being flipped in their favor and the lack of alternatives this week could force that switch now.

Jabar Gaffney: Like Moore and Little, the lack of options bumps him up. And he's got a better matchup than those guys.

Pierre Thomas: On name alone, he's not a sneaky play. But he didn't get his first double digit total of the season until just last week. This will be his second, with his highest ceiling of the year.