What's Best?

That's the burning question of the day. Fantasy owners far and wide spent most of Friday awaiting word on the status of Detroit Lions' running back Jahvid Best. Did he "pass" his concussion tests? And if so, when would he return to game action? If not, what was his long-term prognosis and estimated return date?

There's really no way of knowing what his real status is without talking to the independent doctors that are evaluating him, and thus far nothing has been reported from those critical sources. Nothing on Twitter, no real backdoor rumors, no fact-based speculation, positive or negative. It's odd given his upside (both in real life and in fantasy) that there hasn't been more of a swarm of attention that would uncover something, anything that would bring clarity to Detroit Lions fans and fantasy football owners. A flood of "should I add him?"'s inundated the fantasy message boards, but without knowing where he's at, it's an impossible question to answer.

Until there's a concrete "he's back!", I say he's the equivalent of rostering a high-end handcuff that would be pretty valuable if the starter got hurt, but relatively worthless otherwise. And you don't own the starter. That's the choice you make - do you want to use the roster spot for a lottery ticket, or do you want to use it for something more tangible, like a good one-week fill-in or real roster depth?

There is no doubt the guy can be a highlight show on the field at times, but even when he was healthy and playing, he was not a reliable fantasy asset as a rookie. His 2010 debut was a dud (36 yards from scrimmage on 19 touches), but he saved it from a fantasy perspective with two short TDs, high-impact opportunities he is unlikely to receive even he if he is granted a clean bill of health. His second NFL game was the best of his career, as he rattled off 230 yards from scrimmage and three TDs on just 26 touches. For the rest of his rookie season, he failed to break 100 yards from scrimmage (including six games with less than 50 yards) and only found the end zone once more. Fortunately, his second year represented a significant uptick, as four of his six contests were 100+, and the floor was 70 yards.

Most of the chatter about him now has him slotted for a Darren Sproles type receiver-out-of-the-backfield role, and since Sproles finished among the top 10 RBs last year and is in the top 20 again this year, it's easy to get excited about Best. But unlike Sproles, Best's immense fragility makes him one simple misstep away from returning to IR. Forget about taking a hard hit - he could just fall funny, on the field or off, or merely have concussion symptoms return once he starts exerting himself more.

All things considered, it's very tough to justify dropping a player you otherwise wouldn't in order to roster Best. Even if he does come back, you may be in for a bigger headache than he's had. And on a related note, while it's easy for me to be excited for his potential fantasy usage, it's impossible for me to be excited for him personally. I think it's a bad choice for him to return to football, at least this season. As an NHL fan, I've just seen one too many superstars have to endure the torment of postconcussion syndrome just because they wanted to get back out on the ice. It ain't worth it.

I've been debating myself for hours trying to figure out if I should drop Danny Amendola for Best. Amendola is a very curious case, because prior to this year, he had very little fantasy-relevant history. His absence could be as little as three weeks, or as many as eight. His playoff schedule is very attractive. And I am somewhat thin at wideout - Amendola and Hartline are my best. But I also have Bilal Powell and Vick Ballard as my only RB backups to Lynch and Mathews - an increasingly healthy Best would likely provide much more exciting insurance should one of my studs go down. But I don't want to drop Powell or Ballard until I know Best is ready to go. Argh! The good news is the decision will likely be made for me because Best is on waivers and I'm last in the order. I'm vey perplexed as to why someone who had been holding him this long elected to drop him this week - Thursday was about the highest his market value has been since he was playing.

Just Shanny Being Shanny

Well I guess Alfred Morris IS for real. The 2012 6th rounder was hyped as the starter following a strong preseason, but most of us figured it was just typical Shanny-speak. Apparently, that's not the case. Apparently, Morris is the new Terrell Davis. In what I argue is by far the biggest surprise of the first quarter-season, Morris is the No. 5 RB in fantasy, averaging a robust 15 points per game. I didn't see that coming (heck I didn't see him lasting as the starter this long) and if you say you did, you're lying. But good luck with that.

It would be a risk, sure, but why not sell him high now? Chances are he wasn't slated to be one of your top two RBs anyway, so unless you drafted Roy Helu as one of those, you should be in good shape to sell as a lucky-duck Morris owner. Aim for a struggling RB that is an odds-on favorite to outproduce him over the remainder of the season, and none is a better legitimate target than Ryan Mathews. I'm in strong agreement with Rotoworld's recommendation on seeking Mathews cheap. And I consider Morris cheap, although some may disagree. I'm just not convinced a sixth-rounder will last the whole season as the bellcow in the extremely unpredictable Shanahan system. Time to cash out while you still can.

Same thing for Reggie Bush. He's one false step away from total oblivion. Unfortunately, you probably DID draft him as a starter, so you may be stuck unless you can get a reliable return, and Mathews and Chris Johnson aren't exactly reliable.... yet. Of further misfortune is that fact that Bush does not have a clear handcuff for you to roster should Bush get injured. Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller would probably form some kind of timeshare similar to Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart in Carolina, ultimately limiting each to roughly RB3 status. Tough to roster either guy as a handcuff. 

Carolina's RBs may be tough to play as anything more than a flex, and now Cam Newton's growing pains are making most of the team at least temporarily hands off for fantasy purposes. But what the Panthers do offer to fantasy owners is one of the most attractive matchups, having surrendered 25+ fantasy points to opposing RBs in each of the past three weeks. That should make Marshawn Lynch owners very very happy headed into this week as he is by far the best RB the Panthers have faced so far. The plodding 30-year-old Michael Turner exploded for 171 yards on just 16 touches last week. I would like to say Marshawn Lynch is a near lock for the No. 1 RB this week, but Ray Rice has a similarly favorable match at KC and Arian Foster is unlikely to lose too many snaps to a less-than-100-percent Ben Tate against a rather suddenly susceptible NY Jets rush defense.

Turner is unlikely to have the same kind of game in him this week, but no doubt he'll find the end zone against Washington's suspect defense. I like Matt Ryan to have a near-career day against the Redskins and obviously he'll take Roddy White and Julio Jones with him. With Robert Griffin capable of leading the offense back regardless of opponent, this one is going to be a shootout. Play your 'skins and 'cons (Falcons) with confidence. (And that includes Morris!)

Suffering the Schedule

Just like a fantasy player, I have my off weeks. This is going to be one of them, and unfortunately, next week may be as well. Just a little too busy to get my fantasy thoughts in right now!

I will say my key observation for this week already is that the Giants are possibly the team that is most likely to turn an unknown into a real fantasy commodity. They've done it now in three successive seasons at wide receiver with Mario Manningham, then Victor Cruz, and now possibly Ramses Barden. I think it's safe to say whoever locks down that third wideout spot in New York is a safe weekly start for the rest of the season, and Barden for now has a decent edge on Dominic Hixon and Reuble Randle. Buy now, believe later.

It's probably too late to buy Martellus Bennett, but there's another question mark that has morphed into an exclamation point. If you can get him on the cheap (for Fred Davis, or Robert Meachem, or Kevin Smith), I think it's a no-brainer. I'm not ready to move him ahead of Jermichael Finley, but he's headed rapidly in that direction.

I have no idea what's going to happen with Andre Brown after Thursday Night's performance, but whatever it is is more bad news for Ahmad Bradshaw, who is almost certain to be demoted into at best a timeshare similar to what he had last year, and still looking at David Wilson on the horizon. Bradshaw was always a playable RB2 and I think it will continue that way for now, but Brown looks the part of a more sprite version of what Brandon Jacobs was last year, a weekly RB3. Coughlin defers to veterans, but he also plays the guys who earn it, and Brown earned it. As a Bradshaw owner, I hate to say it, but Brown looks like the better powerback, goalline option, and clock killer, likely a regular need for this strong offense. I don't think he outsnaps or outtouches Bradshaw, but I would not be at all surprised if he outproduces him going forward. Then again, it WAS Carolina. But with Bradshaw's injury history, there is nothing but upside here.

Thwarted

Well that was a mess. And I'm not talking about the Packers-Bears game, although that qualifies as well.

In Week 1, I went a perfect 0-4 in my four money leagues, thanks in large part to my preseason darling, the Buffalo Bills' DST. On the first possession of the game, the Bills managed to pick off dream opponent Mark Sanchez, as expected. But after that, they allowed him to score at will, as he managed three TD passes, no sacks, and a QB rating near 100. Mark Sanchez! Allowing 48 total points, the Bills DST was a negative asset in Week 1, and will be difficult to trust again anytime soon. They've still got that magnificent stretch schedule, but they'll have to show some consistency before one can take the risk. My whole master plan up in flames. Drat!

Unfortunately, that's fantasy football, especially in the first few weeks of the season. You spend the entire offseason (or even just a few weeks) coming up with brilliant fantasy schemes, but many are primarily based in incomplete data - what happened last season. Just because the Jets were a dream opponent for DSTs last year doesn't make them so this year, even if many signs point to it. Could Jeremy Kerley and Stephen Hill be WR2s? That's probably pushing it, but we won't know for sure they're not until we're into about Week 5.

In last week's column, I hesitated to mention Dexter McCluster's heavily targeted preseason, mostly because it was preseason, Dwayne Bowe wasn't around, and he's burned me as a recommendation in the past. But lo and behold, even in the regular season with Bowe alongside, McCluster led the team in targets (10!) and pulled down 6 for 82 yards. He didn't find the endzone, but 10 targets is at least a must-roster in all leagues. McCluster the Must-Roster. And guess what? He started the season with RB eligibility and now has WR to go with it. An old fantasy mancrush has been reborn. That means lots of 2s, 3s and 4s over the next several weeks, of course. But it's always nice to be excited about someone.

Much more quickly than expected, Randall Cobb went from sleeper to wide awake in just the first week of his much-hyped "breakout" season. But on Thursday, Packers' head coach Mike McCarthy pushed the snooze button, giving Cobb just two offensive touches despite the inactive status of stud WR Greg Jennings. That's not going to win any fantasy matchups for the folks who plugged-and-played him in Week 2. I feel even worse for those who rolled the dice on James Jones, who looked the part of a backup trying to be a starter, with a missed catch in the end zone and a rookiesque mistake in failing to complete a route that resulted in a Chicago interception. Lost in my offseason of research was the fact that Jennings is in a contract year, and could be traded midseason or simply not resigned by the Packers for 2013 and beyond. That puts a pretty significant crimp on his value, especially in keeper/dynasty leagues, given there is virtually no better spot for an elite receiver than in Green Bay. All the best QBs already have high-end No. 1s in place, so Jennings would have to settle for a slinger far inferior to Aaron Rodgers and just hope he sees double digit targets each game. Given the way Thursday looked without him, Green Bay may be willing to bring him back regardless of cost. If not, Cobb and Jones still retain a high speculative value. I'd take Cobb first, but Jones can't be totally dismissed until the situation is resolved.

The wait for Mikel Leshoure is down to one week, as millions of speculators have held on to him for his much-anticipated NFL debut, slated for Week Three. Unfortunately, Kevin Smith looked pretty strong as an all-purpose RB, giving the Lions no reason to rush Leshoure into a significant role. Add the possible return of Jahvid Best in Week 7, and you've got a muddied RB picture reminiscent of New Orleans'. Is there a Darren Sproles in there somewhere? Sure, but it's probably Smith, at least while he's healthy. Best is the electrifying but limited-touch Pierre Thomas, and Leshoure mimics Ingram or Ivory, at the goalline and killing the clock. But none has the sterling health record of Sproles, and each can probably act as an all-purpose back. So all any of them need is a couple of timely injuries to the other two (or even just one) to become a weekly RB2. Unlike most pundits, I don't think Kevin Smith is truly the one to own, but my inherent contrarian nature is at least part of that argument. I put the brakes on Smith because of his litany of injuries, and on Best because of his one-and-done concussion possibility. Leshoure has had a significant injury as well, no doubt, but I'm less worried about his durability than the other two. I think Leshoure comes out slow, but gets the lead job by midseason and rolls as an RB1 into the fantasy playoffs.

Da Bills

Da Bills. That's my big secret for the 2012 fantasy football season. Da Bills.

In my first column of last season, I made note of Pittsburgh's seemingly spectacular fantasy playoff schedule, featuring home dates against Cleveland in Week 14 and St. Louis in Week 16. The Steelers DST disappointed me, however,  recording only 12 and 10 fantasy points in those weeks, scarcely better than the average match-up play.

But I'm going back to the well on this one folks. It can't be dry this time, can it?

Though hardly the dominant DST that the Steelers have traditionally boasted, the Bills imported two critical components to their new-look defense. D-guru Dave Wannstedt was handed the reins to this unit in early January and Mario Williams (one of the most lethal pass rushers in the league) was signed to a massive free agent contract. Those two factors alone would not get me too excited about a DST that was middling at best last year, but Buffalo's schedule does, as it should anyone else who would otherwise have to stream.

The start isn't exactly special, but it ain't bad either: at the Jets, hosting the Chiefs, and then at Cleveland. Regadless of who is quarterbacking the Jets, that there is a turnover on a silver platter, and New York scored exactly one TD in the preseason. I think the Bills have just as much a chance to score a defensive TD as the Jets do of scoring an offensive one. Hosting KC is as good a matchup play as most others in Week Two, and then the Bills go to Cleveland. Facing a rookie QB (in this case Brandon Weedon) is always a good thing.

The midseason doesn't look nearly as rosy for the Bills (including two dates against the Patriots) but the final two months sure do. Miami twice, Indianapolis once, and three successive bone-chilling home dates against milder-weather squads Jacksonville, St. Louis and Seattle in Weeks 13, 14 and 15. And if you're in one of those cooky leagues that insists on playing a Week 17 championship game, you get Sanchez-Tebow again, this time at home. I can't say there isn't some fear of former castoff Marshawn Lynch going all beast mode in his return to Ralph Wilson Stadium in Week 15, but as long as Russell Wilson (or any other relative unknown) is his QB that day, I'm willing to take the risk. Looks like a title-winning DST that is flying well under the radar. I have them in all my leagues and there's a pretty good chance they're a free agent in yours.

Speaking of all my leagues, I have once again made the mistake of signing up for too many. I blame the length of the offseason, and my absolute giddiness to get things underway. I keep thinking about all the opportunities in all the different leagues (I'm gonna get Jimmy Graham in one of them, by gosh!) and thus ultimately end up staring straight a season where every single fantasy-relevant player will be represented either on one of my rosters or one of my opponents' every single week. And that just defeats the whole purpose. It's like playing free no-limit hold 'em online. If you keep going all-in on the first hand every time, eventually you're going to win one of those monster play money pots. But what's the point? (Note to self - keep it to three or four. And drop the league where you have to start a punter. A punter!!!)

I was pretty annoyed with my mediocre showing with last year's season-opening predictions, so I'm not going to do anything nearly as expansive this year. I'll just throw out a couple of my favorite sleepers to see if I can awaken them:

1. Jacquizz Rodgers. You may say he's no longer a sleeper, but his ADP is not reflective of a player anyone is counting on. He's a popular speculative pick, and with good reason. Unfortunately, the preseason did not suggest anything will change this year in terms of usage, so if you pick him early, you may have to wait awhile for the pick to pay dividends. Given the fact that you win the money not in September but in December (when Turner is worn down), Rodgers may be worth a full season roster spot. His upside is on par with Darren Sproles, the 7th best(!) fantasy RB in standard leagues last year, even better in PPR.

2. Mikel Leshoure. Best to PUP, Kevin "Injury" Smith the starter. Recovering from an Achilles injury is not easy, but Leshoure is one ding to Smith away from potential superstardom. The Detroit backfield is Russian roulette at this point in terms of injury risk, and Leshoure is no exception. But he's much cheaper than Smith and will be back much sooner than Best.

3. Randall Cobb. Another popular sleeper, but one for whom enthusiasm has waned recently due to the Packers' commitment to veteran Donald Driver. But weren't Jordy Nelson and James Jones fighting for one spot last year? How did that work out? I say Cobb threatens all the starters' snaps by midseason, although he may still be a hit-and-miss. But when he hits, ohhhhh baby!

4. The Vikings trio of Christian Ponder, Kyle Rudolph and Jerome Simpson. Ponder is gonna have to throw the ball against some of these high-octane offenses he's facing. With AP still on the mend, and with a year under the already mature Ponder's belt, the ground game won't be as much a point of reliance. Lost in many calculations is the emergence of Rudolph as the newest of the red zone beast tight ends (6'6, 265) and the apparent chemistry Ponder found with talented-but-raw Simpson in training camp. Simpson is suspended until Week Four, but should provide Ponder a great additional option once he returns. All three could strengthen your bench considerably, and very very cheaply.

5. Kevin Ogletreee. Okay, I'm cheating on this one as he's already gone off for 100+ yards and two TDs. But I did have him on my most WR-needy team's watch list even before he exploded. The Cowboys have liked him for a long time, but he's never been consistent enough to get much playing time. He inherited the old Laurent Robinson gig as No. 3 receiver, and it looks like it may be the perfect fit. Don't forget that both Witten and Austin were not at 100 percent on Wednesday, so he probably got more targets than he will normally. But he's definitely earned Romo's trust for now, and Romo's good enough to find him with regularity. I would not hesitate to add him via waivers, especially if you are thin at WR.

Just like the last two years, I'll be sounding off in this blog every Saturday morning, a time when there always seems to be a gap in fresh content. And hopefully it won't just be a rehash of stuff from other sources earlier in the week, but rather some unique and interesting insight that might help you get a little edge over your peers this fantasy season.

It's great to be back folks, now let's kick this thing off!

Wideouts to the Rescue

Last week, I talked about some RBs that might emerge to become playoff heroes, and this week I'll take a stab at the wideouts who might do just the same.

This list begins and ends with Santana Moss. With three straight top five matchups on tap, and no Fred Davis around to steal targets, Moss easily has a chance to be a top 15 WR in the fantasy playoffs. It's not necessarily going to happen, but he'd be very difficult to leave out of my lineup as my third wideout. In a similar situation scheduling-wise is Jerome Simpson, at least for Weeks 15 (at St. Louis) and 16 (vs. Arizona). He's be more of a risk than Moss, but probably carries equal upside. His recent struggles have come against very tough opponents. As Jordy Nelson, Julio Jones and now Antonio Brown have shown, playing second fiddle to an elite No. 1 option isn't necessarily a bad thing as it actually decreases your coverages.

Now if you want a real Hail Mary, try Demariyus Thomas. Last week could be the beginning of a beautiful friendship between he and Tebow, and the two get New England's wildly unpredictable secondary at home in Week 15. I think if Eddie Royal is still out for that game, Thomas is a slam dunk.

This is likely my last column of the season, so I wanted to grade myself on my preseason predictions. How did I do?

The All Mid-Round Team
These are the guys that will not drafted among the tops at their position, but represent the best chance to produce as such in 2011 without carrying the hefty price tag. Feel great about getting them in Rounds 4-6.
QB: Matt Ryan
RBs: Felix Jones and Beanie Wells
WRs: Julio Jones, Mario Manningham and Kenny Britt
TE: Jimmy Graham
Grade: C+. Unfortunately, a bunch of these guys got injured, otherwise it may have been a different story. I was dead on about Graham, but Ryan proved to still be nothing better than a mid-level QB.

The All Reserve Team
These are guys likely to be drafted as reserves that could probably be played safely in any week this season. In my mind, the best just-outside-the-starters to own in terms of insurance and plug-and-play vs. most opponents. Superior depth guys.
QB: Eli Manning
RBs: Mike Tolbert and Brandon Jacobs
WRs: Emmanuel Sanders, Lance Moore and Lee Evans
TE: Brandon Pettigrew
Grade: B+. I whiffed on the wideouts, but the rest were fine, especially Manning, possibly the steal of most drafts.

The All Under-the-Radar Team
I can't believe I'm not hearing more buzz about these guys as viable fantasy plays. Not necessarily as starters from Day One, but depth guys with pretty good potential to fill a gap if needed. Don't forget about them.
QB: Kerry Collins
RBs: Willis McGahee and Dexter McCluster
WRs: Nate Burleson, Harry Douglas and Antonio Brown
TE: Lance Kendricks
Grade: C. The disparity between guys like Collins and Kendricks (useless) and McGahee and Brown (weekly starters) is pretty amazing. Burleson had his moments, but McCluster has been at best a desperation play.

The All Watch List Team
These guys will probably go undrafted in most leagues, but mark my words, they'll be in someone's active lineup at some point in every league before the season is through.
QB: Blaine Gabbert
RBs: Delone Carter and Montario Hardesty
WRs: Arrelious Benn, Titus Young and Denarius Moore
TE: Jared Cook
Grade: C. Apart from Moore's hot streak, these guys should have spent far more time in the free agent pool than on anyone's bench. But I didn't say they were going to be regulars!

The All Dynasty Team
These guys are probably not viable options for this year, but if you have available dynasty stashes for 2012 and beyond, go for it.
QB: Cam Newton
RBs: Taiwan Jones and Jacquizz Rodgers
WRs: Demariyus Thomas, Randall Cobb and Vincent Brown
TE: Evan Moore.
Grade: A-. Newton was a first-year wonder, Brown and Thomas are legitimately playable now, and I still like the looks of the other guys.

The All Overdraft Team
These guys are my predictions for biggest fantasy busts in 2011 based on their average draft position. Let someone else take their chances.
QB: Matt Schaub
RBs: Jahvid Best and Knowshon Moreno
WRs: Brandon Marshall, Brandon Lloyd and Chad Ochocinco
TE: Tony Gonzalez.
Grade: B. Jackpot on the RBs and Ochocinco, but missed badly on a resurgent Gonzalez. Marshall was about right for his ADP while Lloyd and Schaub were only minor disappointments.

My predictions for the top 5 fantasy producers at each position at season's end, in order (standing entering Week 14):
QB: Rodgers (1), Brady (4), Brees (3), Vick (injured), Ryan (8)
RB: AP (5-injured), Charles (IR), Rice (2), McFadden (injured), Foster (3)
WR: Calvin Johnson (1), Andre Johnson (inj), Larry Fitzgerald (9), Vincent Jackson (8), Mike Wallace (5)
TE: Gates (9-injured), Graham (2), Finley (6), Witten (4), Daniels (11)
Grade: B. Injuries were the only thing that got in my way, but that's fantasy football, right? Ryan and Daniels were clear failures, while my biggest omissions were McCoy and Gronkowski.

Grade Point Average: 2.76. Call it a sophomore slump.

Good luck in the playoffs everyone!

Blood Pressure Rising

I would like to have the personal pride to say my absence last week was inexcusable, but it was Thanksgiving, I was out of town, and my mother-in-law does not have wifi. I'm giving myself a break this time.

Anyway, it's Week 13, often one of the most exciting weeks of the fantasy season as the dividing line for many teams between in and out of the playoffs. One of the weird quirky things about fantasy football vs. real football. (Honestly, since I started playing fantasy football, I usually forget there is a Week 17 in the NFL season.)

I've found few things more thrilling than sneaking into the fantasy playoffs after being on the bubble all season long, and that usually comes courtesy of at least one unlikely wildcard. In Week 13, that will be Kevin Smith, Donald Brown and Marcel Reese. (And the 49ers DST, although as one of the top DST plays this year, that's hardly a wildcard. But against a St. Louis team with A.J. Feeley, the 49ers DST could win the week for an underdog.) Any of those three RBs could emerge as that guy that comes out of nowhere to be a hero in the fantasy playoffs. I love those guys. (Freakin' Tashard Choice won me the 2008 championship, scoring 20 fantasy points in Week 15 and 17 in Week 16.) Everyone loves those guys, except the owners that are beaten by them. (Sorry Jarod!)

Smith is particularly intriguing, provided he stays healthy. The very limited sample size nevertheless suggests he has the potential to put up numbers better than Jahvid Best in that offense. Brown's ceiling isn't quite as towering, but he's a godsend for someone who has been scrambling for anything resembling a featureback. And Reese, well, you could definitely do worse so long as McFadden and half of the Raiders' receiving corps is out. That is unlikely to last through the playoff weeks, but time will tell.

By the way, whoever scheduled Week 16 for Christmas weekend was an idiot. As if Christmas wasn't already stressful and chaotic enough. At least they put Arian Foster's dream Week 16 matchup against Indianapolis well ahead of time on Thursday, Dec. 22 (so Foster owners have time to enjoy and opponents have time to recover) and most of the rest of the action on Christmas Eve Saturday (none at night, thank you) rather than Christmas Day Sunday. But Saturday certainly won't be the end of the madness, unless your title game miraculously does not feature any of the studs on the Packers or Bears (playing Christmas Night) nor any of those on the Saints or Falcons (playing Monday night.) Part or me actually hopes I'm eliminated before then. A small part of me.