This blog was intended to address unique topics at otherwise slow times in the fantasy football news cycle. I am realizing more and more that early Sunday is one of those times. I'm absolutely itching for the games to begin and yet I know I'll be a mental vegetable by the end of the day again because of them. Why do I subject myself to this torture?
As a million ideas float through my head (was dropping Deji Karim for Brandon Jacobs a good idea?), one that keeps recurring is who will be the next fantasy superstar in the passing offenses of Green Bay and New Orleans?
Opening Night, New Orleans at Green Bay, was an absolute delight for football fans and fantasy fans alike, and the concept was on full display. Randall Cobb and Darren Sproles, total afterthoughts on Draft Day, were as fantasy-useful as they were real-life exciting. Robert Meachem AND Devery Henderson both had touchdown receptions - usually, it's one or the other, and you never know which. Donald Driver, for once, didn't put a huge crimp on the values of the other Green Bay receivers.
Colston going down lifts every Saints receiver up a peg, but Lance Moore's return probably has the opposite effect once it comes to fruition. Adrian Arrington (!?) is the Hail Mary play today if Moore sits again, but it's hard not to get at least a little excited about Sproles and Meachem regardless, and so too Jimmy Graham. It's sooner rather than later that this guy breaks out in a monster way. I'd also be OK playing Henderson with more confidence than usual, at least until Moore is indeed back.
In Green Bay, I'm itching for the dominant Jermichael Finley to emerge, but it's going to be tough will all the options up there. Jordy Nelson is now firmly in the mix, as well as two legit RBs. I think Finley will ultimately be fine if not Gates-esque dominant, and Greg Jennings, though probably not as featured as he was last year, will still be No. 1. Nelson seems to be separating as much on the depth chart as on the field, but we said the same thing last year about James Jones, who you can't help but think still lurks in the background. And Cobb, how can you keep him off the field for much longer? I guess when you've got the guys you do ahead of him, you can take your time, but dynasty leaguers want action now! Don't even get me started on reception-vulture Driver, the Derrick Mason of the Midwest. Whenever this team is playing critical or grinding midseason games, the savvy veteran will be a big part of the gameplan, thwarting the hopes of fantasy owners everywhere.
The reality is that both of these teams have enough depth to field two full corps of receivers each, a big part of why Rodgers and Brees are two of the most reliable fantasy QBs in the biz. Even without Colston, his top wideout, Brees is unlikely to take a hit. Rodgers was nearly unaffected by the loss of Finley last year and my guess is he'll be that much better with him healthy this year.
Sunday, September 18, 2011
Saturday, September 17, 2011
The RB2/3 Debate and Handcuff Dilemma
One of the terms it takes some getting used to in fantasy football is RB1, WR2, etc. Frankly, I can't find anything anywhere that describes exactly what the terms mean to everyone, but one thing is certain - the lower the number, the more valuable they are on a relative scale.
It's safe to say any player with a "1" designation is an every-week fantasy starter, a reliable play with pretty big upside. No one can say that they will never stink it up, but certainly less frequently than players with a higher number designation. The more 1s you have in your lineup, the stronger it is.
We'll get to the 2s and 3s in a minute, but once you get past that range, you're basically shooting craps. A WR4/5 (Devery Henderson?) may or may not pan out in any given week. An RB4/5 is usually no better than the lesser half of a committee, someone you'd play only out of desperation and hope for a lucky TD. Because you will never field a lineup with all 1s, and you don't want to have to play any 4/5s, a big part of optimizing your lineup, for the season and for each week, is choosing the correct RBs and WRs in the 2/3 range.
It's safe to say any player with a "1" designation is an every-week fantasy starter, a reliable play with pretty big upside. No one can say that they will never stink it up, but certainly less frequently than players with a higher number designation. The more 1s you have in your lineup, the stronger it is.
We'll get to the 2s and 3s in a minute, but once you get past that range, you're basically shooting craps. A WR4/5 (Devery Henderson?) may or may not pan out in any given week. An RB4/5 is usually no better than the lesser half of a committee, someone you'd play only out of desperation and hope for a lucky TD. Because you will never field a lineup with all 1s, and you don't want to have to play any 4/5s, a big part of optimizing your lineup, for the season and for each week, is choosing the correct RBs and WRs in the 2/3 range.
RB2s are often supposed to be every-week starters, and yet it's not unusual for them to get stuffed (Week 1 exhibits: Moreno, Greene, Blount, DeAngelo Williams.) You can combine two of them to cover one roster spot and then mix-and-match based on opponent, but they're still far less reliable than RB1s even in good situations against favorable opponents. And it still hurts almost as much if you used a high draft pick on one and he gets injured. My opinion is that it's better to have a higher volume of more speculative RB3s (Jacobs, Tolbert, etc.) that you were able to snag in the later rounds than to rely on two expensive RB2s to cover that spot. It gives you even more options to play matchups or hot hands, as well as extra lottery tickets. At the very least, you should always prioritize a deeper insurance plan consisting of RB3s, for covering injury or bye weeks, instead of expecting a few big guns to carry you successfully all the way through the season. They're also extremely useful as trade enhancers if needed.
Unfortunately, carrying these guys burns valuable roster spots, but I'm not talking about rostering seven RBs (or even six, although that is what I personally prefer.) I just think not carrying a few extra bodies (particularly at that injury-prone position) is playing with fire. However, one common related strategy I frequently disagree with is rostering handcuffs. Granted, if you have a bonafide guaranteed handcuff who previously has shown the ability to step successfully into a full workload (McGahee?), or to be worthwhile occasionally despite being in a clear supporting role (Michael Bush), it's probably worth it. But if there are 2-3 relatively unproven guys right behind your starter, don't bother. Too likely to be a hot hand or committee situation if your guy goes down. An RB3 from another team is much stronger insurance and thus a much better use of a roster spot.
Our object lesson this week is Cadillac Williams. The reasons he was available on so many waiver wires was 1) few knew for sure if he was the primary handcuff, as Jerious Norwood is also on the Rams' roster, and 2) he was pretty lousy as the feature back to start 2010 in Tampa Bay. His 140 all-purpose yards after Steven Jackson went down last week were as eye-opening as they come, but I'm not hopping on this train yet. Chances are none of the Eagles were psychologically prepared for him to be the same kind of force that Steven Jackson is, and you can bet the Giants will gameplan with him in mind, particularly with Amendola on the shelf as well. Two contrasting wrinkles though: the Giants' defense is not operating at full capacity, and Steven Jackson might actually play! Despite a beat-up opponent, I wouldn't want to pencil Cadillac in as my starter only to find out way too late that Jackson was going to be active. Even if you used a high waiver pick on him, I'd leave him on the bench unless you really have no other viable plug-in options. And even if Jackson is inactive, I don't see Williams marking a double-digit fantasy total.
Sneaky PlaysUnfortunately, carrying these guys burns valuable roster spots, but I'm not talking about rostering seven RBs (or even six, although that is what I personally prefer.) I just think not carrying a few extra bodies (particularly at that injury-prone position) is playing with fire. However, one common related strategy I frequently disagree with is rostering handcuffs. Granted, if you have a bonafide guaranteed handcuff who previously has shown the ability to step successfully into a full workload (McGahee?), or to be worthwhile occasionally despite being in a clear supporting role (Michael Bush), it's probably worth it. But if there are 2-3 relatively unproven guys right behind your starter, don't bother. Too likely to be a hot hand or committee situation if your guy goes down. An RB3 from another team is much stronger insurance and thus a much better use of a roster spot.
Our object lesson this week is Cadillac Williams. The reasons he was available on so many waiver wires was 1) few knew for sure if he was the primary handcuff, as Jerious Norwood is also on the Rams' roster, and 2) he was pretty lousy as the feature back to start 2010 in Tampa Bay. His 140 all-purpose yards after Steven Jackson went down last week were as eye-opening as they come, but I'm not hopping on this train yet. Chances are none of the Eagles were psychologically prepared for him to be the same kind of force that Steven Jackson is, and you can bet the Giants will gameplan with him in mind, particularly with Amendola on the shelf as well. Two contrasting wrinkles though: the Giants' defense is not operating at full capacity, and Steven Jackson might actually play! Despite a beat-up opponent, I wouldn't want to pencil Cadillac in as my starter only to find out way too late that Jackson was going to be active. Even if you used a high waiver pick on him, I'd leave him on the bench unless you really have no other viable plug-in options. And even if Jackson is inactive, I don't see Williams marking a double-digit fantasy total.
A little note on sneaky plays. I'm not recommending these guys over top options. Play your studs. Period. If you lose with your studs, you can still hold your head high. But if you lose cuz you gambled, that's on you. Sneaky plays are merely recommendations for guys you could consider playing over any 2/3 option that you're not so confident in coming into the week, and great alternatives for starter-level players you are having serious doubts about. (Read: Austin Collie)
Brandon Jacobs: 75+ yards plus one touchdown. A lot of buzz this week about the Giants getting away from the power game. I think they go back to that in front of the home crowd and Jacobs gets a good share of carries including at least one successful goalline carry.
Ladainian Tomlinson: Close to 100 all-purpose yards, 50/50 shot at a TD. In case you missed it, he led the Jets in receiving last week with 73 yards on six receptions. The guy can still bring it. With Holmes a question mark coming in, he may get even more looks, and the Jets are also planning to get more running plays in. If Greene is ineffective like he was last week, expect to see a little more LT.
Devery Henderson: 100+ yards plus 1 TD, just like last week. This one's not exactly sneaky considering the lack of healthy bodies in one of the league's best passing attacks, but it will still take a glaring doubt for you to consider playing him over one of your normal starters.
Nate Burleson: Just short of 100 yards, but good enough. I'm a little shy on predicting a TD, but one (or more) is definitely possible. The Chiefs made Ryan Fitzpatrick look like Joe Montana after losing Eric Berry last week and Matt Stafford is making his home debut. Burleson is just going to hang out and rack up stats.
Dustin Keller: 50+ yards and a touchdown. I see him garnering a lot of short receptions and continuing to be redeployed as a red zone target, especially if Holmes is not 100 percent. A good buy-low candidate as a strong backup tight end.
Revisiting a former man crush:
One of the hottest names this week is James Starks, as he seemed to grab hold of the starting gig in the second half of last week's Green Bay game. I think the jury's still out here and I wouldn't rush to christen him an RB2 yet as some pundits have. Ryan Grant may be less explosive, but he's definitely more proven. Subtract Grant's longest run (10 yards) and Starks' excellent 17-yard TD scamper, and we end up almost dead even on yards-per-carry. We don't know exactly what is going to happen when they get down to the goalline, but those darn Aaron Rodgers sneaks and John Kuhn vultures will put a cap on enhancing either back's value. My prediction is that Grant continues to start games, gets more of the precious goalline carries, and alternates with Kuhn in clock-killing mode. Starks will get just as many carries and snaps as he probably fits better into the design of this offense, and will definitely have more highlight plays. All-in-all, I think Starks is the better guy to own here, but I think it's very similar to the Tolbert-Mathews split in San Diego. All are somewhat risky plays but with significant upside in potent offenses.
Monday, September 12, 2011
Wiped Out
I'm thoroughly exhausted after yesterday. All I did was watch football all day, but the emotional roller coaster of finally getting going after a full offseason of lockout scares coinciding with the 10th anniversary of 9/11 reached a crescendo with the 1pm ET kickoffs. By 6, I was spent, and the fantasy mud puddle that was the Seattle-San Francisco game only made it worse.
Observations
The MASH unit would hardly be enough for the NFL after yesterday's carnage. St. Louis is already scouting No. 1 overall picks after losing its star running back and quarterback as well as its most vital wide receiver to various injuries. Steven Jackson was the only high draft pick among those, but the St. Louis offense as a whole looks virtually untouchable for the next little bit. (I'm not in favor of rushing out to add Cadillac Williams, for example. I just think he's going to be way too easy to defend.) San Diego got crushed too, but at least the Chargers can still look good short-handed. Kaeding was the No. 1 kicker picked in many drafts, but remember, he's a kicker. You'll survive. On the defensive side of things, the Chiefs lost safety Eric Berry and the Panthers lost linebacker Jon Beason. That makes those matchups all the more juicy for opposing fantasy starts - Stafford is a virtual lock to put up even more impressive numbers in his home opener against the Chiefs and Jermichael Finley will be even less coverable than usual at Carolina. Houston wideout Kevin Walter is gone for at least the first half of the season, but I'm still not ready to get excited about Jacoby Jones yet. Let's see him do something first (other than a punt return TD, that is!)
The Chicago Bears brought the Matty Ice hype train to a screeching halt, but he did manage to chuck up over 300 yards. His leading receiver? Tony Gonzalez. Didn't he retire? A big nugget from this game was when Michael Turner was alarmingly caught from behind on a breakaway run that he should have taken to the house, although he did show a great second effort in bouncing off the first tackle that should have brought him down. Owners should be prepared to panic if he starts splitting carries with someone faster, namely Jacquizz Rodgers. But as long as he continues to get the goalline carries on this offensive superpower, he should be fine, usually good for a TD a week.
Like most, I'm not going to anoint Cam Newton and Steve Smith yet. It was Arizona, after all. There is understandly plenty of excitement for what the future holds after that showing, but I'm not ready to start Newton over Roethlisberger, nor Smith over Manningham. I will, however, crown Ray Rice the next big thing. If he can do that vs. Pittsburgh, I shudder to think what he can do against Tennessee and St. Louis the next two weeks. He can probably be safely penciled in as a top 5 option every week.
What you take away from the San Diego game is a whole lot of confidence in their running back tandem, and in Philip Rivers. If Rivers has both RBs available to catch critical passes, he's going to light it up, as will they. Tolbert is a find, no doubt (he had nine receptions!) but don't expect three TDs every week. As I said, I do expect 10 fantasy points each week from him, and probably close to that from Mathews as well. It's the best running-back-by-committee in the league, the rare situation where you could probably play both guys in any given week and do just fine. Unfortunately, there's always the chance the Chargers go pass-heavy and feature Gates and Vincent Jackson instead. So just tread carefully. But Tolbert probably now qualifies as an every-week RB2, while Mathews is a high-end RB3 with upside.
Jahvid Best had two things I didn't expect: 1) a full game with no injury issues and 2) a respectable fantasy day despite no breakaway plays and no touchdowns. He had 25 touches, but his longest play was a 14-yard catch-and-run. His yards-per-carry was woeful at 3.4, but as long as he's healthy and featured in this up-and-coming offense, he should at least be a viable starting fantasy RB. Think of Cedric Benson, but with gargantuan upside. Unfortunately, with gargantuan injury risk as well. One misfortunate hit away from oblivion.
It may be safe to say that the train has left the station on Thomas Jones (2 carries for 3 yards). Could it have been Charlie Weis' fault that he was used as much as Jamaal Charles last year? That means my boy McCluster is looking good as expected. How good? Try leading the team in yards-from-scrimmage yesterday with 67, including a 23-yard run to go with five receptions. A rather ignominious start (fumbling the opening kickoff) was quickly forgotten. Unfortunately, the passing game as a whole looks to be a mess, so stacking the box may quickly become the best option for opposing defenses.
I don't care how much the Ravens schooled the Pittsburgh DST yesterday, I still love it as a fantasy playoff spectacular. Next week at home vs. Seattle looks pretty good too!
Sneaky Plays Scorecard
Kerry Collins
Prediction: 250 passing yards, 3 TD, 2 INT
Actual: He came up short of 200 yards and only had one TD pass. He didn't throw any picks, but lost two fumbles, usually the same penalty in most leagues. Garbage time allowed him to escape total fantasy disaster, a far cry from what I was expecting, all things considered.
Ben Tate and Derrick Ward
Prediction: 50+ all-purpose yards each, whether or not Foster plays (but not sure which will score)
Actual: Tate absolutely stole the show after Ward pulled himself from the game as a precaution, but even Ward had 39 yards and a TD.
Michael Bush:
Prediction: 75 yards and one TD plunge.
Actual: Only 30 yards on nine carries. He was in there some of the time at the goalline, but was more of a DMC breather-provider than anything else in this one.
Julio Jones
Prediction: 8+ receptions, 100+ yards, 1 long TD
Actual: Six receptions for 71 yards, not bad for a rookie's first NFL game in a hostile stadium. The whole Falcons' offense was unable to find the end zone, so chalk it up to one of those days for everyone. I'd take his line vs. his expectations over many of the other Falcons'.
Nate Burleson
Prediction: 75+ yards and one touchdown, mostly because four guys were covering Megatron on the play
Actual: Again, shorted on the TD, but not the yardage. He caught all five targets he received and added a pretty 20-yard end-around in the first quarter.
Aaron Hernandez:
Prediction: 60+ yards and 1 TD.
Actual: Try 100 yards and a TD. I also had Gronkowski dead on. Neither of these guys will be sneaky plays again anytime soon.
San Francisco DST
Prediction: 3 turnovers and one defensive touchdown while shutting down what Seattle euphemistically calls its "offense"
Actual: I was actually short on predicted value here. The 49ers had one pick and two fumble recoveries, and held Seattle to 219 yards of total offense. I picked them to have a defensive TD as well, but while they didn't pull that off, they had two return TDs.
Correct: Ben Tate, Derrick Ward, Aaron Hernandez, San Francisco DST
Serviceable line: Julio Jones and Nate Burleson
Back to the drawing board: Kerry Collins and Michael Bush
I'll take it!
Man Crush Update
I'm taking Stafford off the official list, because everyone is jumping on the bandwagon now. He's the real deal so let's just hope he lasts a full season. Tolbert might be off the list soon as well for the same reason, but for now I'll just wear my SE grin for a week. (Is it possible he read my column suggesting he would never get 20 fantasy points in one week?) Burleson, McCluster and Julio Jones all did fine and I'll continue to hype them, and I'm far from giving up on Brandon Jacobs.
Observations
The MASH unit would hardly be enough for the NFL after yesterday's carnage. St. Louis is already scouting No. 1 overall picks after losing its star running back and quarterback as well as its most vital wide receiver to various injuries. Steven Jackson was the only high draft pick among those, but the St. Louis offense as a whole looks virtually untouchable for the next little bit. (I'm not in favor of rushing out to add Cadillac Williams, for example. I just think he's going to be way too easy to defend.) San Diego got crushed too, but at least the Chargers can still look good short-handed. Kaeding was the No. 1 kicker picked in many drafts, but remember, he's a kicker. You'll survive. On the defensive side of things, the Chiefs lost safety Eric Berry and the Panthers lost linebacker Jon Beason. That makes those matchups all the more juicy for opposing fantasy starts - Stafford is a virtual lock to put up even more impressive numbers in his home opener against the Chiefs and Jermichael Finley will be even less coverable than usual at Carolina. Houston wideout Kevin Walter is gone for at least the first half of the season, but I'm still not ready to get excited about Jacoby Jones yet. Let's see him do something first (other than a punt return TD, that is!)
The Chicago Bears brought the Matty Ice hype train to a screeching halt, but he did manage to chuck up over 300 yards. His leading receiver? Tony Gonzalez. Didn't he retire? A big nugget from this game was when Michael Turner was alarmingly caught from behind on a breakaway run that he should have taken to the house, although he did show a great second effort in bouncing off the first tackle that should have brought him down. Owners should be prepared to panic if he starts splitting carries with someone faster, namely Jacquizz Rodgers. But as long as he continues to get the goalline carries on this offensive superpower, he should be fine, usually good for a TD a week.
Like most, I'm not going to anoint Cam Newton and Steve Smith yet. It was Arizona, after all. There is understandly plenty of excitement for what the future holds after that showing, but I'm not ready to start Newton over Roethlisberger, nor Smith over Manningham. I will, however, crown Ray Rice the next big thing. If he can do that vs. Pittsburgh, I shudder to think what he can do against Tennessee and St. Louis the next two weeks. He can probably be safely penciled in as a top 5 option every week.
What you take away from the San Diego game is a whole lot of confidence in their running back tandem, and in Philip Rivers. If Rivers has both RBs available to catch critical passes, he's going to light it up, as will they. Tolbert is a find, no doubt (he had nine receptions!) but don't expect three TDs every week. As I said, I do expect 10 fantasy points each week from him, and probably close to that from Mathews as well. It's the best running-back-by-committee in the league, the rare situation where you could probably play both guys in any given week and do just fine. Unfortunately, there's always the chance the Chargers go pass-heavy and feature Gates and Vincent Jackson instead. So just tread carefully. But Tolbert probably now qualifies as an every-week RB2, while Mathews is a high-end RB3 with upside.
Jahvid Best had two things I didn't expect: 1) a full game with no injury issues and 2) a respectable fantasy day despite no breakaway plays and no touchdowns. He had 25 touches, but his longest play was a 14-yard catch-and-run. His yards-per-carry was woeful at 3.4, but as long as he's healthy and featured in this up-and-coming offense, he should at least be a viable starting fantasy RB. Think of Cedric Benson, but with gargantuan upside. Unfortunately, with gargantuan injury risk as well. One misfortunate hit away from oblivion.
It may be safe to say that the train has left the station on Thomas Jones (2 carries for 3 yards). Could it have been Charlie Weis' fault that he was used as much as Jamaal Charles last year? That means my boy McCluster is looking good as expected. How good? Try leading the team in yards-from-scrimmage yesterday with 67, including a 23-yard run to go with five receptions. A rather ignominious start (fumbling the opening kickoff) was quickly forgotten. Unfortunately, the passing game as a whole looks to be a mess, so stacking the box may quickly become the best option for opposing defenses.
I don't care how much the Ravens schooled the Pittsburgh DST yesterday, I still love it as a fantasy playoff spectacular. Next week at home vs. Seattle looks pretty good too!
Sneaky Plays Scorecard
Kerry Collins
Prediction: 250 passing yards, 3 TD, 2 INT
Actual: He came up short of 200 yards and only had one TD pass. He didn't throw any picks, but lost two fumbles, usually the same penalty in most leagues. Garbage time allowed him to escape total fantasy disaster, a far cry from what I was expecting, all things considered.
Ben Tate and Derrick Ward
Prediction: 50+ all-purpose yards each, whether or not Foster plays (but not sure which will score)
Actual: Tate absolutely stole the show after Ward pulled himself from the game as a precaution, but even Ward had 39 yards and a TD.
Michael Bush:
Prediction: 75 yards and one TD plunge.
Actual: Only 30 yards on nine carries. He was in there some of the time at the goalline, but was more of a DMC breather-provider than anything else in this one.
Julio Jones
Prediction: 8+ receptions, 100+ yards, 1 long TD
Actual: Six receptions for 71 yards, not bad for a rookie's first NFL game in a hostile stadium. The whole Falcons' offense was unable to find the end zone, so chalk it up to one of those days for everyone. I'd take his line vs. his expectations over many of the other Falcons'.
Nate Burleson
Prediction: 75+ yards and one touchdown, mostly because four guys were covering Megatron on the play
Actual: Again, shorted on the TD, but not the yardage. He caught all five targets he received and added a pretty 20-yard end-around in the first quarter.
Aaron Hernandez:
Prediction: 60+ yards and 1 TD.
Actual: Try 100 yards and a TD. I also had Gronkowski dead on. Neither of these guys will be sneaky plays again anytime soon.
San Francisco DST
Prediction: 3 turnovers and one defensive touchdown while shutting down what Seattle euphemistically calls its "offense"
Actual: I was actually short on predicted value here. The 49ers had one pick and two fumble recoveries, and held Seattle to 219 yards of total offense. I picked them to have a defensive TD as well, but while they didn't pull that off, they had two return TDs.
Correct: Ben Tate, Derrick Ward, Aaron Hernandez, San Francisco DST
Serviceable line: Julio Jones and Nate Burleson
Back to the drawing board: Kerry Collins and Michael Bush
I'll take it!
Man Crush Update
I'm taking Stafford off the official list, because everyone is jumping on the bandwagon now. He's the real deal so let's just hope he lasts a full season. Tolbert might be off the list soon as well for the same reason, but for now I'll just wear my SE grin for a week. (Is it possible he read my column suggesting he would never get 20 fantasy points in one week?) Burleson, McCluster and Julio Jones all did fine and I'll continue to hype them, and I'm far from giving up on Brandon Jacobs.
Saturday, September 10, 2011
Fantasy ManCrush, Episode I
Last year, I was all about James Starks, Chris Ivory, Danny Woodhead and basically all the Bucs not named Earnest Graham. I'll be updating my mancrush list on a weekly basis, but we need a starting point for 2011. These are the guys that for whatever reason I'm absolutely fixated on to start the season (not counting the studs we know will be studs):
Matt Stafford. Again, Aaron Rodgers-esque breakout coming. It's going to be fun to watch. Nate Burleson and Titus Young also qualify for this list. The Lions are actually my Buccaneers for this season, even though Jahvid Best scares the bejesus out of me for a variety of good and bad reasons.
Mike Tolbert. Barring injury, I just can't fathom a scenario whereby Tolbert fails to score 10 fantasy points in any given game. Probably never gonna get to 20, but I can live with 10 every week. That's Steven Jackson territory.
Brandon Jacobs. Tolbert Junior (errrr, Senior.) Enough touches to do consistent damage every week, and for a much lower price than his tandem partner Bradshaw.
Julio Jones. Yes, it is possible that he outproduces Roddy White in his rookie year. Unlikely, yes, but possible. I think it will at least be close when all is said and done, and I think both will finish in the top 15. Think Miles Austin and Dez Bryant.
Jimmy Graham. After Gates and Finley, there's no one I think will be more explosive at the position this year. I'm even starting to look at him ahead of Finley.
Dexter McCluster. The chuckles I've heard on this one suggest I could just have easily have said "Donald Brown" I don't know why, I just think the guy's gonna be a gamer this year, and I love his dual position eligibility a la Woodhead. I basically envision him as exactly what Woodhead was last year, producing as a WR3 with the added benefit of being used as an RB in an emergency. This is the one guy on my list that has any chance of being available on your waiver wire, and it's actually very likely that he is. Go get him, and send me a Thank You card later. (On second thought, it may take him til midseason to make a difference, just like Woodhead, so perhaps you can wait on that......)
On Manning
I can't recall an injury that has more dramatically affected more player values than this one. It's like the Pearl Harbor, the JFK assassination or the 9/11 of fantasy football.* (Where were you when you heard that Manning could be out for the year?) Wayne, Collie and Garcon have all been postulated to be demoted at least 1-2 full tiers in the fantasy ranks. They're talking about going run-heavy, which would be suicide for the way this team is built. Might as well start talking to Andrew Luck now about his rookie contract. No, I think they stay the course for the most part. Collins is no Manning, for sure, but he can get the job done. Wayne is an elite receiver, Collie is a gamer as evidenced by last season, and Garcon is steady if not spectacular. And any schmo QB would love an inside weapon like Clark. If not for the pressure of filling a massive void, Collins would be entering a QB's dream scenario.
And what about that run game that they may turn to? Though no big play threat, Joseph Addai is about as good as they come in terms of patience, humility, pass blocking and outlet availability, so total number of goalline touches is about the only thing he takes a hit on, simply because they won't be down there as much. He actually may benefit in terms of number of touches but does have a TD vulture looking over his shoulder in Delone Carter, who probably isn't rostered in most leagues anyway and would need to show quite an immediate and explosive breakout ability to have fantasy relevance this year. He's the guy that would have to do it if they're going to go run, and I just don't see it, though there have been occasional comparisons to MJD. Donald Brown is still there, but he's still lousy. Ditto Anthony Gonzalez in the passing game, but you just never know. A whole lot of wildcards sometimes equals a royal flush.
* I'm torn about having NFL Opening Day coincide with the 10th anniversary of 9/11. A big part of me thinks it is truly fitting, stick it to the terrorists by continuing to do what we love in spite of their actions. We will not be terrorized. We will not sacrifice our way of life out of fear. At the same time, I think the date should be solemnized, particularly the 10th anniversary of the tragedy. I honestly believe September 11 should be made an annual national holiday of remembrance. And you could put a positive spin on it by calling it Patriots Day or National Heroes Day or the like, while still making a clear acknowledgement of the victims. I think playing football is among the most American things you could possibly do, so I think it's a great idea to go on with the games. It's just a little tougher to get into the spirit of it this year on the benchmark anniversary. I will be passionately monitoring my fantasy teams on Sunday, but not without a much heavier heart than usual. And it has nothing to do with having Peyton Manning on one of my teams.
Sneaky plays of the week
You're in trouble if you're already looking for a plug-and-play, but here's this week's top options for guys that were not likely drafted as starters, and my crazy projections for each:
Kerry Collins: 250 passing yards, 3 TD, 2 INT. Seriously. This will be a high-scoring game and his receiving crew is among the best in the league.Ben Tate and Derrick Ward: 50+ all-purpose yards each, whether or not Foster plays (but not sure which will score)
Michael Bush: 75 yards and one TD plunge. Double that if DMC goes down before halftime as expected.
Julio Jones: 8+ receptions, 100+ yards, 1 long TD. Welcome to the NFL!
Nate Burleson: 75+ yards and one touchdown, mostly because four guys were covering Megatron on the play.
Aaron Hernandez: 60+ yards and 1 TD. I think Gronkowski has a good chance to get one as well, but fewer receptions and yardage.
San Francisco DST: 3 turnovers and one defensive touchdown while shutting down what Seattle euphemistically calls its "offense"
There's eight options listed here. If I get two right, I'm doing OK. Anything over three and I'm a flippin' genius!
Suicide/Survivor
Like every year, week 1 is going to be tough, but this year it seems even tougher. And that should ensure you lose half the pool after the first week, my favorite aspect of these types of pools. I've been doing the same one for about five years, and actually won the whole thing once. Four out of five times, I've gone deep into the season, following a few simple guidelines for as long as I possibly can:
1) Always pick a home team. Home teams in the NFL win 70 percent of the time. Huge statistical advantage.
2) Avoid underdogs (for obvious reasons) and close spreads (3 points or less). The oddsmakers have a pretty good idea what one team's chances are of beating another, so it's prudent to avoid those matches in which they don't waver far from even.
3) Avoid national telecasts and upper-end division rivalries. Generally, the intensity gets ramped up in these games and weird things happen to both teams. Unfortunately, that's true of every game in Week One, but obviously you have to pick someone.
4) Avoid betting on a weak team, especially early in the season, simply because you think their opponent is weaker and you want to save the better teams for later. It's not going to help you to have New England left in Week 10 if you get eliminated in Week 2. Go with the surer things and worry about your more critical choices later. In Week 2, you have no idea what any team is really going to be worth come Week 10.
5) Avoid betting for or against Oakland. Probably the least predictable team in the NFL.
Following those rules, I'm left ONLY with Kansas City (hosting Buffalo) and San Diego (hosting Minnesota) for Week One. Special mention goes to Houston (hosting Indy) which the oddsmakers have heavily favored because Manning is out. I'm not so sure the Texans take this one. It IS an intense rivalry, and you can bet the entire Indy squad will be motivated to prove they can succeed without their star. Furthermore, Foster may sit, or at least be limited. I'm not saying the Colts WILL win, I'm just saying there's a good enough chance they MIGHT win that I don't want to bet against it.
Either KC or San Diego works this week, but I'm slightly more confident that San Diego will win, so I'm going with them. And by the way, the worst bet this week, violating all of my rules, would be Oakland. But I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Raiders won.
Matt Stafford. Again, Aaron Rodgers-esque breakout coming. It's going to be fun to watch. Nate Burleson and Titus Young also qualify for this list. The Lions are actually my Buccaneers for this season, even though Jahvid Best scares the bejesus out of me for a variety of good and bad reasons.
Mike Tolbert. Barring injury, I just can't fathom a scenario whereby Tolbert fails to score 10 fantasy points in any given game. Probably never gonna get to 20, but I can live with 10 every week. That's Steven Jackson territory.
Brandon Jacobs. Tolbert Junior (errrr, Senior.) Enough touches to do consistent damage every week, and for a much lower price than his tandem partner Bradshaw.
Julio Jones. Yes, it is possible that he outproduces Roddy White in his rookie year. Unlikely, yes, but possible. I think it will at least be close when all is said and done, and I think both will finish in the top 15. Think Miles Austin and Dez Bryant.
Jimmy Graham. After Gates and Finley, there's no one I think will be more explosive at the position this year. I'm even starting to look at him ahead of Finley.
Dexter McCluster. The chuckles I've heard on this one suggest I could just have easily have said "Donald Brown" I don't know why, I just think the guy's gonna be a gamer this year, and I love his dual position eligibility a la Woodhead. I basically envision him as exactly what Woodhead was last year, producing as a WR3 with the added benefit of being used as an RB in an emergency. This is the one guy on my list that has any chance of being available on your waiver wire, and it's actually very likely that he is. Go get him, and send me a Thank You card later. (On second thought, it may take him til midseason to make a difference, just like Woodhead, so perhaps you can wait on that......)
On Manning
I can't recall an injury that has more dramatically affected more player values than this one. It's like the Pearl Harbor, the JFK assassination or the 9/11 of fantasy football.* (Where were you when you heard that Manning could be out for the year?) Wayne, Collie and Garcon have all been postulated to be demoted at least 1-2 full tiers in the fantasy ranks. They're talking about going run-heavy, which would be suicide for the way this team is built. Might as well start talking to Andrew Luck now about his rookie contract. No, I think they stay the course for the most part. Collins is no Manning, for sure, but he can get the job done. Wayne is an elite receiver, Collie is a gamer as evidenced by last season, and Garcon is steady if not spectacular. And any schmo QB would love an inside weapon like Clark. If not for the pressure of filling a massive void, Collins would be entering a QB's dream scenario.
And what about that run game that they may turn to? Though no big play threat, Joseph Addai is about as good as they come in terms of patience, humility, pass blocking and outlet availability, so total number of goalline touches is about the only thing he takes a hit on, simply because they won't be down there as much. He actually may benefit in terms of number of touches but does have a TD vulture looking over his shoulder in Delone Carter, who probably isn't rostered in most leagues anyway and would need to show quite an immediate and explosive breakout ability to have fantasy relevance this year. He's the guy that would have to do it if they're going to go run, and I just don't see it, though there have been occasional comparisons to MJD. Donald Brown is still there, but he's still lousy. Ditto Anthony Gonzalez in the passing game, but you just never know. A whole lot of wildcards sometimes equals a royal flush.
* I'm torn about having NFL Opening Day coincide with the 10th anniversary of 9/11. A big part of me thinks it is truly fitting, stick it to the terrorists by continuing to do what we love in spite of their actions. We will not be terrorized. We will not sacrifice our way of life out of fear. At the same time, I think the date should be solemnized, particularly the 10th anniversary of the tragedy. I honestly believe September 11 should be made an annual national holiday of remembrance. And you could put a positive spin on it by calling it Patriots Day or National Heroes Day or the like, while still making a clear acknowledgement of the victims. I think playing football is among the most American things you could possibly do, so I think it's a great idea to go on with the games. It's just a little tougher to get into the spirit of it this year on the benchmark anniversary. I will be passionately monitoring my fantasy teams on Sunday, but not without a much heavier heart than usual. And it has nothing to do with having Peyton Manning on one of my teams.
Sneaky plays of the week
You're in trouble if you're already looking for a plug-and-play, but here's this week's top options for guys that were not likely drafted as starters, and my crazy projections for each:
Kerry Collins: 250 passing yards, 3 TD, 2 INT. Seriously. This will be a high-scoring game and his receiving crew is among the best in the league.Ben Tate and Derrick Ward: 50+ all-purpose yards each, whether or not Foster plays (but not sure which will score)
Michael Bush: 75 yards and one TD plunge. Double that if DMC goes down before halftime as expected.
Julio Jones: 8+ receptions, 100+ yards, 1 long TD. Welcome to the NFL!
Nate Burleson: 75+ yards and one touchdown, mostly because four guys were covering Megatron on the play.
Aaron Hernandez: 60+ yards and 1 TD. I think Gronkowski has a good chance to get one as well, but fewer receptions and yardage.
San Francisco DST: 3 turnovers and one defensive touchdown while shutting down what Seattle euphemistically calls its "offense"
There's eight options listed here. If I get two right, I'm doing OK. Anything over three and I'm a flippin' genius!
Suicide/Survivor
Like every year, week 1 is going to be tough, but this year it seems even tougher. And that should ensure you lose half the pool after the first week, my favorite aspect of these types of pools. I've been doing the same one for about five years, and actually won the whole thing once. Four out of five times, I've gone deep into the season, following a few simple guidelines for as long as I possibly can:
1) Always pick a home team. Home teams in the NFL win 70 percent of the time. Huge statistical advantage.
2) Avoid underdogs (for obvious reasons) and close spreads (3 points or less). The oddsmakers have a pretty good idea what one team's chances are of beating another, so it's prudent to avoid those matches in which they don't waver far from even.
3) Avoid national telecasts and upper-end division rivalries. Generally, the intensity gets ramped up in these games and weird things happen to both teams. Unfortunately, that's true of every game in Week One, but obviously you have to pick someone.
4) Avoid betting on a weak team, especially early in the season, simply because you think their opponent is weaker and you want to save the better teams for later. It's not going to help you to have New England left in Week 10 if you get eliminated in Week 2. Go with the surer things and worry about your more critical choices later. In Week 2, you have no idea what any team is really going to be worth come Week 10.
5) Avoid betting for or against Oakland. Probably the least predictable team in the NFL.
Following those rules, I'm left ONLY with Kansas City (hosting Buffalo) and San Diego (hosting Minnesota) for Week One. Special mention goes to Houston (hosting Indy) which the oddsmakers have heavily favored because Manning is out. I'm not so sure the Texans take this one. It IS an intense rivalry, and you can bet the entire Indy squad will be motivated to prove they can succeed without their star. Furthermore, Foster may sit, or at least be limited. I'm not saying the Colts WILL win, I'm just saying there's a good enough chance they MIGHT win that I don't want to bet against it.
Either KC or San Diego works this week, but I'm slightly more confident that San Diego will win, so I'm going with them. And by the way, the worst bet this week, violating all of my rules, would be Oakland. But I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Raiders won.
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
The All-Everything Teams
Welcome to the 2011 Fantasy Football Season. Please take a moment to thank whatever deity inspires you that the NFL owners and players figured things out. I shudder to think where we fantasy football fans would end up without our fix. I actually conceptualized a Canadian Football fantasy league out of premature desperation.
Thankfully, enacting such an extreme measure proved unnecessary. The Peyton Manning injury alone, and its subsequent fantasy football ramifications, are enough to keep me going nonstop for about a week.
As usual, I'll be posting on Saturday mornings throughout the season, giving the junkies a little last thing to absorb in the down time between Friday's injury reports and the actual games. In general, I'll aim to share periphery observations, sneaky plays and longer-term fliers instead of just regurgitating the key fantasy news that is available on hundreds of other sites.
And for my first entry of 2011, I'll skip all the hard news as usual and just give you some hard (and heartily rationalized) predictions. At the end of the season, I can look back and laugh, cry, or gloat.
The All Mid-Round Team
These are the guys that will not drafted among the tops at their position, but represent the best chance to produce as such in 2011 without carrying the hefty price tag. Feel great about getting them in Rounds 4-6.
QB: Matt Ryan
RBs: Felix Jones and Beanie Wells
WRs: Julio Jones, Mario Manningham and Kenny Britt
TE: Jimmy Graham
Best mid-round value: Graham. The guy is a baller. He's huge, and Brees loves him. Even with the ball spread around, he's the most likely to get critical looks, and the most likely to have a giant game. Runner-up: Felix Jones.
The All Reserve Team
These are guys likely to be drafted as reserves that could probably be played safely in any week this season. In my mind, the best just-outside-the-starters to own in terms of insurance and plug-and-play vs. most opponents. Superior depth guys.
QB: Eli Manning
RBs: Mike Tolbert and Brandon Jacobs
WRs: Emmanuel Sanders, Lance Moore and Lee Evans
TE: Brandon Pettigrew
Best reserve value: Tolbert. Passing downs AND goalline carries on that team? No doubt he ends up with more fantasy points than Mathews this year. Decent chance to be a kind of lite version of Peyton Hillis this year. Runner-up: Jacobs.
The All Under-the-Radar Team
I can't believe I'm not hearing more buzz about these guys as viable fantasy plays. Not necessarily as starters from Day One, but depth guys with pretty good potential to fill a gap if needed. Don't forget about them.
QB: Kerry Collins
RBs: Willis McGahee and Dexter McCluster
WRs: Nate Burleson, Harry Douglas and Antonio Brown
TE: Lance Kendricks
Best forgotten value: Burleson. The prime beneficiary if Stafford and Megatron remain healthy. He's going to be open enough for Stafford to find him. A lot.
Runner-up: Collins, who had four real strong fantasy games to close out last season despite being on a team with basically one legitimate receiving threat. He now has at least five. Call me crazy, but I like his chances. Granted, he's more likely to look like Eli than Peyton, but I'd much rather play him than a guy like Cutler. And if Manning is indeed out for a while, his chemistry with the receivers and familiarity with the offense only grows. He knows what he's doing and represents a perfect stopgap solution for the Colts and for fantasy owners.
The All Watch List Team
These guys will probably go undrafted in most leagues, but mark my words, they'll be in someone's active lineup at some point in every league before the season is through.
QB: Blaine Gabbert
RBs: Delone Carter and Montario Hardesty
WRs: Arrelious Benn, Titus Young and Denarius Moore
TE: Jared Cook
Best watch list value: Cook. Mostly due to a lack of options, Cook has been and will again be lined up as a wideout. He's big and fast and has good hands and will probably lead the Titans in receptions. Runner-up: Benn.
The All Dynasty Team
These guys are probably not viable options for this year, but if you have available dynasty stashes for 2012 and beyond, go for it.
QB: Cam Newton
RBs: Taiwan Jones and Jacquizz Rodgers
WRs: Demariyus Thomas, Randall Cobb and Vincent Brown
TE: Evan Moore.
Best dynasty value: Vincent Brown. Last year was a great example of what virtually anyone can do in a pass-heavy offense. Possibly Rivers' No. 2 target in 2012. Runner-up: Newton.
The All Overdraft Team
These guys are my predictions for biggest fantasy busts in 2011 based on their average draft position. Let someone else take their chances.
QB: Matt Schaub
RBs: Jahvid Best and Knowshon Moreno
WRs: Brandon Marshall, Brandon Lloyd and Chad Ochocinco
TE: Tony Gonzalez.
Worst average draft position value: Ochocinco. Too many offensive options in New England, so he'll have to get used to being just another cog, and perhaps even primarily a decoy. I think it smells a lot like Randy Moss in 2010.
Runner-up: Best, the rare beast whose fate could be anywhere from finishing as the No. 1 fantasy RB to suffering a season-ending injury in Week One. The 3.2 yards per carry last year and the chances of him getting pulled at the goalline in order to protect him make him absolutely not worth the risk. Difficult to determine if his upside or his downside is greater, so he's just as likely to lose a week for you as to win it. Why bother?
My predictions for the top 5 fantasy producers at each position at season's end (in order):
QB: Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Vick, Ryan (longshot sneak-in: Stafford)
RB: AP, Charles, Rice, McFadden, Foster (longshot sneak-in: Steven Jackson)
WR: Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, Mike Wallace (longshot sneak-in: Dez Bryant)
TE: Gates, Graham, Finley, Witten, Daniels (longshot sneak-in: Kendricks)
Don't laugh at the Ryan and Stafford mentions. These two have Aaron-Rodgers-breakout written all over them.
Early Tips and Observations, a small sampling of the kinds of blog entries to expect:
1. Did you happen to notice Pittsburgh's fantasy playoff schedule? In weeks 13-17, they get Cincinnati and St. Louis at home, at San Francisco, and Cleveland twice. Sure, you'll start the usual offensive guys with a little extra confidence, but the Steelers DST alone might win you the title there. I don't care if James Harrison is only 70-80 percent right now, he should be fine in December. And St. Louis as an upstart threat? Sure, but no dome team is going to excel in Pittsburgh at that time of year. The highest rated DST in most weeks gets a massive boost at the season's most critical spot. Easily worth an early eighth round pick and I'd even reach for them late in the seventh if there wasn't another clear buy there. If you've already drafted and missed 'em, buy relatively low while you still can. This is set up to be the greatest stretch of defensive TDs in history.
2. Todd Haley strikes again. The mastermind behind giving Thomas Jones more touches than Jamaal Charles last year plays his starters deep into meaningless preseason game No. 4, and subsequently loses his tight end (and almost his quarterback.) I have no idea what he'll do with the backfield this year, but I'm on board with everyone else that Charles is due for a monster season. I'm actually so down on Jones (probably losing at least some goalline touches to McClain) that I'm going rapidly up on Dexter McCluster. I think the loss of Moeaki only helps McCluster as another random receiving threat to plug in on the kinds of passing plays that would have suited Moeaki before. He's a wildcard, and despite suggestions to the contrary, I think he takes plenty of snaps as a wideout this year. He just got RB eligibility to go with his WR eligibility in ESPN leagues, making him a perfect possibility to be this year's Danny Woodhead, easily as good as most WR3s and a fine bye week play at RB, taking up only one roster spot instead of two. Love it! And if Charles happens to go down......
3. Apparently I wasn't the only one that connected the dots when Detroit picked up Keiland Williams off waivers from Washington. Latest report has the hulking fullback picking up a lot of the plays originally designed for Mike Leshoure, including the goalline plunges. Can't complain about that role in that offense. Worth a flier at the start of the season, although he may or may not excel quickly in that opportunity.
Good luck to everyone this season, and I hope to see you guys here every Saturday!
Thankfully, enacting such an extreme measure proved unnecessary. The Peyton Manning injury alone, and its subsequent fantasy football ramifications, are enough to keep me going nonstop for about a week.
As usual, I'll be posting on Saturday mornings throughout the season, giving the junkies a little last thing to absorb in the down time between Friday's injury reports and the actual games. In general, I'll aim to share periphery observations, sneaky plays and longer-term fliers instead of just regurgitating the key fantasy news that is available on hundreds of other sites.
And for my first entry of 2011, I'll skip all the hard news as usual and just give you some hard (and heartily rationalized) predictions. At the end of the season, I can look back and laugh, cry, or gloat.
The All Mid-Round Team
These are the guys that will not drafted among the tops at their position, but represent the best chance to produce as such in 2011 without carrying the hefty price tag. Feel great about getting them in Rounds 4-6.
QB: Matt Ryan
RBs: Felix Jones and Beanie Wells
WRs: Julio Jones, Mario Manningham and Kenny Britt
TE: Jimmy Graham
Best mid-round value: Graham. The guy is a baller. He's huge, and Brees loves him. Even with the ball spread around, he's the most likely to get critical looks, and the most likely to have a giant game. Runner-up: Felix Jones.
The All Reserve Team
These are guys likely to be drafted as reserves that could probably be played safely in any week this season. In my mind, the best just-outside-the-starters to own in terms of insurance and plug-and-play vs. most opponents. Superior depth guys.
QB: Eli Manning
RBs: Mike Tolbert and Brandon Jacobs
WRs: Emmanuel Sanders, Lance Moore and Lee Evans
TE: Brandon Pettigrew
Best reserve value: Tolbert. Passing downs AND goalline carries on that team? No doubt he ends up with more fantasy points than Mathews this year. Decent chance to be a kind of lite version of Peyton Hillis this year. Runner-up: Jacobs.
The All Under-the-Radar Team
I can't believe I'm not hearing more buzz about these guys as viable fantasy plays. Not necessarily as starters from Day One, but depth guys with pretty good potential to fill a gap if needed. Don't forget about them.
QB: Kerry Collins
RBs: Willis McGahee and Dexter McCluster
WRs: Nate Burleson, Harry Douglas and Antonio Brown
TE: Lance Kendricks
Best forgotten value: Burleson. The prime beneficiary if Stafford and Megatron remain healthy. He's going to be open enough for Stafford to find him. A lot.
Runner-up: Collins, who had four real strong fantasy games to close out last season despite being on a team with basically one legitimate receiving threat. He now has at least five. Call me crazy, but I like his chances. Granted, he's more likely to look like Eli than Peyton, but I'd much rather play him than a guy like Cutler. And if Manning is indeed out for a while, his chemistry with the receivers and familiarity with the offense only grows. He knows what he's doing and represents a perfect stopgap solution for the Colts and for fantasy owners.
The All Watch List Team
These guys will probably go undrafted in most leagues, but mark my words, they'll be in someone's active lineup at some point in every league before the season is through.
QB: Blaine Gabbert
RBs: Delone Carter and Montario Hardesty
WRs: Arrelious Benn, Titus Young and Denarius Moore
TE: Jared Cook
Best watch list value: Cook. Mostly due to a lack of options, Cook has been and will again be lined up as a wideout. He's big and fast and has good hands and will probably lead the Titans in receptions. Runner-up: Benn.
The All Dynasty Team
These guys are probably not viable options for this year, but if you have available dynasty stashes for 2012 and beyond, go for it.
QB: Cam Newton
RBs: Taiwan Jones and Jacquizz Rodgers
WRs: Demariyus Thomas, Randall Cobb and Vincent Brown
TE: Evan Moore.
Best dynasty value: Vincent Brown. Last year was a great example of what virtually anyone can do in a pass-heavy offense. Possibly Rivers' No. 2 target in 2012. Runner-up: Newton.
The All Overdraft Team
These guys are my predictions for biggest fantasy busts in 2011 based on their average draft position. Let someone else take their chances.
QB: Matt Schaub
RBs: Jahvid Best and Knowshon Moreno
WRs: Brandon Marshall, Brandon Lloyd and Chad Ochocinco
TE: Tony Gonzalez.
Worst average draft position value: Ochocinco. Too many offensive options in New England, so he'll have to get used to being just another cog, and perhaps even primarily a decoy. I think it smells a lot like Randy Moss in 2010.
Runner-up: Best, the rare beast whose fate could be anywhere from finishing as the No. 1 fantasy RB to suffering a season-ending injury in Week One. The 3.2 yards per carry last year and the chances of him getting pulled at the goalline in order to protect him make him absolutely not worth the risk. Difficult to determine if his upside or his downside is greater, so he's just as likely to lose a week for you as to win it. Why bother?
My predictions for the top 5 fantasy producers at each position at season's end (in order):
QB: Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Vick, Ryan (longshot sneak-in: Stafford)
RB: AP, Charles, Rice, McFadden, Foster (longshot sneak-in: Steven Jackson)
WR: Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, Mike Wallace (longshot sneak-in: Dez Bryant)
TE: Gates, Graham, Finley, Witten, Daniels (longshot sneak-in: Kendricks)
Don't laugh at the Ryan and Stafford mentions. These two have Aaron-Rodgers-breakout written all over them.
Early Tips and Observations, a small sampling of the kinds of blog entries to expect:
1. Did you happen to notice Pittsburgh's fantasy playoff schedule? In weeks 13-17, they get Cincinnati and St. Louis at home, at San Francisco, and Cleveland twice. Sure, you'll start the usual offensive guys with a little extra confidence, but the Steelers DST alone might win you the title there. I don't care if James Harrison is only 70-80 percent right now, he should be fine in December. And St. Louis as an upstart threat? Sure, but no dome team is going to excel in Pittsburgh at that time of year. The highest rated DST in most weeks gets a massive boost at the season's most critical spot. Easily worth an early eighth round pick and I'd even reach for them late in the seventh if there wasn't another clear buy there. If you've already drafted and missed 'em, buy relatively low while you still can. This is set up to be the greatest stretch of defensive TDs in history.
2. Todd Haley strikes again. The mastermind behind giving Thomas Jones more touches than Jamaal Charles last year plays his starters deep into meaningless preseason game No. 4, and subsequently loses his tight end (and almost his quarterback.) I have no idea what he'll do with the backfield this year, but I'm on board with everyone else that Charles is due for a monster season. I'm actually so down on Jones (probably losing at least some goalline touches to McClain) that I'm going rapidly up on Dexter McCluster. I think the loss of Moeaki only helps McCluster as another random receiving threat to plug in on the kinds of passing plays that would have suited Moeaki before. He's a wildcard, and despite suggestions to the contrary, I think he takes plenty of snaps as a wideout this year. He just got RB eligibility to go with his WR eligibility in ESPN leagues, making him a perfect possibility to be this year's Danny Woodhead, easily as good as most WR3s and a fine bye week play at RB, taking up only one roster spot instead of two. Love it! And if Charles happens to go down......
3. Apparently I wasn't the only one that connected the dots when Detroit picked up Keiland Williams off waivers from Washington. Latest report has the hulking fullback picking up a lot of the plays originally designed for Mike Leshoure, including the goalline plunges. Can't complain about that role in that offense. Worth a flier at the start of the season, although he may or may not excel quickly in that opportunity.
Good luck to everyone this season, and I hope to see you guys here every Saturday!
Saturday, December 11, 2010
It's About Time!
It only took 13 weeks, but James Starks is finally relevant. And even a reasonable upside play this week at Detroit if you're short on options. He burst onto the scene with a shocking 18 touches last week, garnering nearly 80 yards as the primary early down option. I wouldn't count on him for a touchdown, but it's certainly possible.
This is the time of year when complete unknowns come out of the woodwork to win fantasy championships. (Last year, it was Jerome Harrison, Jamaal Charles and Arian Foster.) Unfortunately, most of the managers in position to win championships simply have stronger options, so a lot of these guys never see active duty.
If you are one of those owners who made the playoffs not on the strength of two stud RBs, or lost one late (like Gore,) it's time to do some Christmas shopping.
Starks is one of the better ones, but don't get too excited too quickly. His upside is limited by the focus on the passing game, a few quality alternatives in the backfield, and Aaron Rodgers' penchant for sneaking it in himself when at the goalline.
Tashard Choice is really the guy to roll with here. Despite a few hiccups that seemed to be illogically held against him, he has excelled each time he has been given a real role. This week is only moderately attractive, but when championships are decided in Weeks 15 and 16, Choice draws Washington and Arizona. It doesn't get much better than that. I suspect he retains his new complementary gig even after Barber is back at full strength, and quite possibly becomes the best of the three Dallas RBs in those games. I predict he's good for at least 10 fantasy points in each of the remaining games, although his upside is capped by limited touches.
The cat is out of the bag on Chris Ivory, but it remains to be see how his role develops now that PT is back on board. He certainly not a bad option if he's available, but I believe his touches will steadily decrease and he thus becomes a progressively riskier play.
Starks and Ivory were my big recommended grabs earlier this season, but Ivory was running hot and cold while Starks didn't get his feet under him until last week. Some of my other prognostications proved equally accurate: Danny Woodhead, Fred Jackson and LeGarrette Blount. I also seem to be right on some of my recent playoff DST recomendations: Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Dallas, though we'll have to wait and see how they really do over the next few weeks. (Seriously, Dallas is a great grab for Weeks 15 and 16 if they're still out there.) Others, particularly those where I advised skepticism, proved faulty: Jacob Tamme, Mike Goodson and Ryan Torain.
There is nothing more fun than gambling and winning on a longshot, and little more frustrating than gambling and losing when you benched a more reliable, albeit lower upside, option. But that's what fantasy football is about. It's as much about your gut feeling and chance/luck as it is about the hard statistics. Otherwise, it wouldn't be as much fun.
This will likely be my last column of the year as there is not much I can do to help you from here on out, and not much that hasn't been said repeatedly by someone else already. Make the most of what's left of the fantasy season, and then get ready to get back to enjoying "real" football, in the NFL playoffs, when you can safely go back to rooting for the guys you like regardless of whose fantasy team they were on!
This is the time of year when complete unknowns come out of the woodwork to win fantasy championships. (Last year, it was Jerome Harrison, Jamaal Charles and Arian Foster.) Unfortunately, most of the managers in position to win championships simply have stronger options, so a lot of these guys never see active duty.
If you are one of those owners who made the playoffs not on the strength of two stud RBs, or lost one late (like Gore,) it's time to do some Christmas shopping.
Starks is one of the better ones, but don't get too excited too quickly. His upside is limited by the focus on the passing game, a few quality alternatives in the backfield, and Aaron Rodgers' penchant for sneaking it in himself when at the goalline.
Tashard Choice is really the guy to roll with here. Despite a few hiccups that seemed to be illogically held against him, he has excelled each time he has been given a real role. This week is only moderately attractive, but when championships are decided in Weeks 15 and 16, Choice draws Washington and Arizona. It doesn't get much better than that. I suspect he retains his new complementary gig even after Barber is back at full strength, and quite possibly becomes the best of the three Dallas RBs in those games. I predict he's good for at least 10 fantasy points in each of the remaining games, although his upside is capped by limited touches.
The cat is out of the bag on Chris Ivory, but it remains to be see how his role develops now that PT is back on board. He certainly not a bad option if he's available, but I believe his touches will steadily decrease and he thus becomes a progressively riskier play.
Starks and Ivory were my big recommended grabs earlier this season, but Ivory was running hot and cold while Starks didn't get his feet under him until last week. Some of my other prognostications proved equally accurate: Danny Woodhead, Fred Jackson and LeGarrette Blount. I also seem to be right on some of my recent playoff DST recomendations: Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Dallas, though we'll have to wait and see how they really do over the next few weeks. (Seriously, Dallas is a great grab for Weeks 15 and 16 if they're still out there.) Others, particularly those where I advised skepticism, proved faulty: Jacob Tamme, Mike Goodson and Ryan Torain.
There is nothing more fun than gambling and winning on a longshot, and little more frustrating than gambling and losing when you benched a more reliable, albeit lower upside, option. But that's what fantasy football is about. It's as much about your gut feeling and chance/luck as it is about the hard statistics. Otherwise, it wouldn't be as much fun.
This will likely be my last column of the year as there is not much I can do to help you from here on out, and not much that hasn't been said repeatedly by someone else already. Make the most of what's left of the fantasy season, and then get ready to get back to enjoying "real" football, in the NFL playoffs, when you can safely go back to rooting for the guys you like regardless of whose fantasy team they were on!
Saturday, December 4, 2010
Calling an Audible
It's Week 13. This week or next is the final week of the regular season for pretty much everyone. And that puts you into one of three camps: In already, fighting for a playoff spot, or looking forward to next year.
If you're in already, congratulations. Take a bow. Now get back to work. Just because you've qualified doesn't mean you can relax. This means more intensely scouting your upcoming matchups, just as you would for the bye weeks, to see if there is a spot here or there you can tinker with. Take a look to see if your playoff seeding is already set in stone. If it is, forget about your spot positional plays that have good matchups this week, especially that ideal Week 13 DST if you happen to be streaming. You may be able to drop one or more of them for a high upside play in Week 15 instead, and you can certainly modify which depth guys you choose to carry.
Don't bench your studs, but if you're a Gore owner in need of a bandaid, these would be among your better insurance options out there:
Mike Hart: Solid play even in a timeshare earlier this season, consistently outperforming Donald Brown. With an attractive remaining schedule, he's about the best emergency plug as long as Addai remains out.
Cadillac Williams: Certainly more of a desperation play than Hart, but high upside nevertheless. He's made the most of his limited touches recently and like Hart, he's got an excellent remaining schedule. Chances are he will be a solid contributor for the Bucs' playoff run.
Anthony Dixon: Equal to Cadillac in terms of desperation. He played second fiddle to Westbrook after Gore went down, but you can expect a heavier workload given Westbrook's fragile frame (including at least some goalline carries) and he certainly inherits the starting job in the very possible event that Westbrook gets injured. I wouldn't play him this week at Green Bay, but I certainly would consider him next week at home against Seattle.
Tashard Choice: Lightning in a bottle as evidenced by his brief tenures last year as a half timeshare back. If he succeeds in limited work this week (pretty good chance against Indy) expect to see more of him even after Barber is back. And that means a possible golden opportunity in Week 16 at Arizona.
If you're not in it yet, you get to sweat it out with the rest of us this week. Perhaps more than any other week, that means fielding your optimal lineup. Sounds obvious, but there's a lot more to it than usual.
For example, if you're favored by a lot, or have a stronger top-to-bottom roster than your opponent and think your lineup can beat his, you can play it relatively conservatively and simply rely on your regular guys to get the job done.
You can also strategize to mitigate your opponent's potential value players by finding affiliated value of your own. The most obvious play here is to play a receiver that your opponent's QB is commonly throwing to. You can also avoid creating an opportunity for your opponent to double dip anywhere in terms of value, so stash that WR even if you don't play him, and don't play a DST going against your opponent's top skill players. You want to avoid trying to double dip yourself, as one player struggling player would likely adversely affect the other.
Conversely, if you're a significant underdog, risk is your friend. Playing a goalline back or common long bomb target in a likely high-scoring contest, instead of a featureback or possession receiver in a more defensive battle, is one way to make up for potential shortcomings. So is loading up on one team, avoiding those players complementary to your opponent's starters, and/or playing the DST going against your opponent's best players.
This also means calling more fantasy audibles, specifically changing your lineup for the later games after gauging where you stand in the early ones. If you played it conservative and find yourself in a deeper hole than expected towards the end of Sunday's early games, you can swap in a higher-upside but riskier option for the later games to try to make up the deficit. The inverse is true as well - if you put in some risky options to try to beat a favored opponent, and find yourself in good shape Sunday afternoon, you can pull out one or two of those lottery tickets for more consisent performers that may be better options for maintaining your lead to secure the win. This strategy will become even more relevant to everyone once the playoffs begin, so it's great practice.
This is also the time where you'll be able to add to your usual weekly frenzy by keeping an eye on the other matches that affect your chances of a playoff berth. Obviously, you want to root for your competition to lose even if it means a stronger team (already in) increases its lead in the standings. You'll find yourself rooting for players that you long forgot about, although it definitely increases your chances of having conflicting rooting interests based on all the different things that you want to happen.
And even if you're part of the unfortunate 30 percent that's already eliminated, don't stop now. Remember, there are only a little over three months out of the year available to play fantasy football. Don't waste any of them. You're stuck in limbo until next September, pal, might as well get your final licks in.
From a competitive integrity/fairness standpoint, you want to play to the whistle, meaning fielding your best lineup and trying to beat every opponent all the way to the end. But perhaps you can take a less rigid approach to give yourself a more enjoyable sendoff. Don't be afraid to play your emotional favorites (one of mine is Danny Woodhead) if they're within reasonable range of the "better" choices. Use that as an easy tiebreak.
And if your opponent this week is out too, you can have even more fun with it. Set each other's lineups (no drops allowed). Place a separate wager, with him and with other guys who don't qualify, to extend the losers' bracket through Week 16 or 17. And start planning for next year. The draft is only nine months away!
Whether you're in, out or on the bubble, don't forget about shooting for the overall points title. There may or may not be money involved, but there is always pride. You may be 4-8, but that doesn't neccessarily mean you had a bad team.
If you're in already, congratulations. Take a bow. Now get back to work. Just because you've qualified doesn't mean you can relax. This means more intensely scouting your upcoming matchups, just as you would for the bye weeks, to see if there is a spot here or there you can tinker with. Take a look to see if your playoff seeding is already set in stone. If it is, forget about your spot positional plays that have good matchups this week, especially that ideal Week 13 DST if you happen to be streaming. You may be able to drop one or more of them for a high upside play in Week 15 instead, and you can certainly modify which depth guys you choose to carry.
Don't bench your studs, but if you're a Gore owner in need of a bandaid, these would be among your better insurance options out there:
Mike Hart: Solid play even in a timeshare earlier this season, consistently outperforming Donald Brown. With an attractive remaining schedule, he's about the best emergency plug as long as Addai remains out.
Cadillac Williams: Certainly more of a desperation play than Hart, but high upside nevertheless. He's made the most of his limited touches recently and like Hart, he's got an excellent remaining schedule. Chances are he will be a solid contributor for the Bucs' playoff run.
Anthony Dixon: Equal to Cadillac in terms of desperation. He played second fiddle to Westbrook after Gore went down, but you can expect a heavier workload given Westbrook's fragile frame (including at least some goalline carries) and he certainly inherits the starting job in the very possible event that Westbrook gets injured. I wouldn't play him this week at Green Bay, but I certainly would consider him next week at home against Seattle.
Tashard Choice: Lightning in a bottle as evidenced by his brief tenures last year as a half timeshare back. If he succeeds in limited work this week (pretty good chance against Indy) expect to see more of him even after Barber is back. And that means a possible golden opportunity in Week 16 at Arizona.
If you're not in it yet, you get to sweat it out with the rest of us this week. Perhaps more than any other week, that means fielding your optimal lineup. Sounds obvious, but there's a lot more to it than usual.
For example, if you're favored by a lot, or have a stronger top-to-bottom roster than your opponent and think your lineup can beat his, you can play it relatively conservatively and simply rely on your regular guys to get the job done.
You can also strategize to mitigate your opponent's potential value players by finding affiliated value of your own. The most obvious play here is to play a receiver that your opponent's QB is commonly throwing to. You can also avoid creating an opportunity for your opponent to double dip anywhere in terms of value, so stash that WR even if you don't play him, and don't play a DST going against your opponent's top skill players. You want to avoid trying to double dip yourself, as one player struggling player would likely adversely affect the other.
Conversely, if you're a significant underdog, risk is your friend. Playing a goalline back or common long bomb target in a likely high-scoring contest, instead of a featureback or possession receiver in a more defensive battle, is one way to make up for potential shortcomings. So is loading up on one team, avoiding those players complementary to your opponent's starters, and/or playing the DST going against your opponent's best players.
This also means calling more fantasy audibles, specifically changing your lineup for the later games after gauging where you stand in the early ones. If you played it conservative and find yourself in a deeper hole than expected towards the end of Sunday's early games, you can swap in a higher-upside but riskier option for the later games to try to make up the deficit. The inverse is true as well - if you put in some risky options to try to beat a favored opponent, and find yourself in good shape Sunday afternoon, you can pull out one or two of those lottery tickets for more consisent performers that may be better options for maintaining your lead to secure the win. This strategy will become even more relevant to everyone once the playoffs begin, so it's great practice.
This is also the time where you'll be able to add to your usual weekly frenzy by keeping an eye on the other matches that affect your chances of a playoff berth. Obviously, you want to root for your competition to lose even if it means a stronger team (already in) increases its lead in the standings. You'll find yourself rooting for players that you long forgot about, although it definitely increases your chances of having conflicting rooting interests based on all the different things that you want to happen.
And even if you're part of the unfortunate 30 percent that's already eliminated, don't stop now. Remember, there are only a little over three months out of the year available to play fantasy football. Don't waste any of them. You're stuck in limbo until next September, pal, might as well get your final licks in.
From a competitive integrity/fairness standpoint, you want to play to the whistle, meaning fielding your best lineup and trying to beat every opponent all the way to the end. But perhaps you can take a less rigid approach to give yourself a more enjoyable sendoff. Don't be afraid to play your emotional favorites (one of mine is Danny Woodhead) if they're within reasonable range of the "better" choices. Use that as an easy tiebreak.
And if your opponent this week is out too, you can have even more fun with it. Set each other's lineups (no drops allowed). Place a separate wager, with him and with other guys who don't qualify, to extend the losers' bracket through Week 16 or 17. And start planning for next year. The draft is only nine months away!
Whether you're in, out or on the bubble, don't forget about shooting for the overall points title. There may or may not be money involved, but there is always pride. You may be 4-8, but that doesn't neccessarily mean you had a bad team.
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