Wiped Out

I'm thoroughly exhausted after yesterday. All I did was watch football all day, but the emotional roller coaster of finally getting going after a full offseason of lockout scares coinciding with the 10th anniversary of 9/11 reached a crescendo with the 1pm ET kickoffs. By 6, I was spent, and the fantasy mud puddle that was the Seattle-San Francisco game only made it worse.

Observations

The MASH unit would hardly be enough for the NFL after yesterday's carnage. St. Louis is already scouting No. 1 overall picks after losing its star running back and quarterback as well as its most vital wide receiver to various injuries. Steven Jackson was the only high draft pick among those, but the St. Louis offense as a whole looks virtually untouchable for the next little bit. (I'm not in favor of rushing out to add Cadillac Williams, for example. I just think he's going to be way too easy to defend.) San Diego got crushed too, but at least the Chargers can still look good short-handed. Kaeding was the No. 1 kicker picked in many drafts, but remember, he's a kicker. You'll survive. On the defensive side of things, the Chiefs lost safety Eric Berry and the Panthers lost linebacker Jon Beason. That makes those matchups all the more juicy for opposing fantasy starts - Stafford is a virtual lock to put up even more impressive numbers in his home opener against the Chiefs and Jermichael Finley will be even less coverable than usual at Carolina. Houston wideout Kevin Walter is gone for at least the first half of the season, but I'm still not ready to get excited about Jacoby Jones yet. Let's see him do something first (other than a punt return TD, that is!)

The Chicago Bears brought the Matty Ice hype train to a screeching halt, but he did manage to chuck up over 300 yards. His leading receiver? Tony Gonzalez. Didn't he retire? A big nugget from this game was when Michael Turner was alarmingly caught from behind on a breakaway run that he should have taken to the house, although he did show a great second effort in bouncing off the first tackle that should have brought him down. Owners should be prepared to panic if he starts splitting carries with someone faster, namely Jacquizz Rodgers. But as long as he continues to get the goalline carries on this offensive superpower, he should be fine, usually good for a TD a week.

Like most, I'm not going to anoint Cam Newton and Steve Smith yet. It was Arizona, after all. There is understandly plenty of excitement for what the future holds after that showing, but I'm not ready to start Newton over Roethlisberger, nor Smith over Manningham. I will, however, crown Ray Rice the next big thing. If he can do that vs. Pittsburgh, I shudder to think what he can do against Tennessee and St. Louis the next two weeks. He can probably be safely penciled in as a top 5 option every week.

What you take away from the San Diego game is a whole lot of confidence in their running back tandem, and in Philip Rivers. If Rivers has both RBs available to catch critical passes, he's going to light it up, as will they. Tolbert is a find, no doubt (he had nine receptions!) but don't expect three TDs every week. As I said, I do expect 10 fantasy points each week from him, and probably close to that from Mathews as well. It's the best running-back-by-committee in the league, the rare situation where you could probably play both guys in any given week and do just fine. Unfortunately, there's always the chance the Chargers go pass-heavy and feature Gates and Vincent Jackson instead. So just tread carefully. But Tolbert probably now qualifies as an every-week RB2, while Mathews is a high-end RB3 with upside.

Jahvid Best had two things I didn't expect: 1) a full game with no injury issues and 2) a respectable fantasy day despite no breakaway plays and no touchdowns. He had 25 touches, but his longest play was a 14-yard catch-and-run. His yards-per-carry was woeful at 3.4, but as long as he's healthy and featured in this up-and-coming offense, he should at least be a viable starting fantasy RB. Think of Cedric Benson, but with gargantuan upside. Unfortunately, with gargantuan injury risk as well. One misfortunate hit away from oblivion.

It may be safe to say that the train has left the station on Thomas Jones (2 carries for 3 yards). Could it have been Charlie Weis' fault that he was used as much as Jamaal Charles last year? That means my boy McCluster is looking good as expected. How good? Try leading the team in yards-from-scrimmage yesterday with 67, including a 23-yard run to go with five receptions. A rather ignominious start (fumbling the opening kickoff) was quickly forgotten. Unfortunately, the passing game as a whole looks to be a mess, so stacking the box may quickly become the best option for opposing defenses.

I don't care how much the Ravens schooled the Pittsburgh DST yesterday, I still love it as a fantasy playoff spectacular. Next week at home vs. Seattle looks pretty good too!

Sneaky Plays Scorecard

Kerry Collins
Prediction: 250 passing yards, 3 TD, 2 INT
Actual: He came up short of 200 yards and only had one TD pass. He didn't throw any picks, but lost two fumbles, usually the same penalty in most leagues. Garbage time allowed him to escape total fantasy disaster, a far cry from what I was expecting, all things considered.

Ben Tate and Derrick Ward
Prediction: 50+ all-purpose yards each, whether or not Foster plays (but not sure which will score)
Actual: Tate absolutely stole the show after Ward pulled himself from the game as a precaution, but even Ward had 39 yards and a TD.

Michael Bush:
Prediction: 75 yards and one TD plunge.
Actual: Only 30 yards on nine carries. He was in there some of the time at the goalline, but was more of a DMC breather-provider than anything else in this one.

Julio Jones
Prediction: 8+ receptions, 100+ yards, 1 long TD
Actual: Six receptions for 71 yards, not bad for a rookie's first NFL game in a hostile stadium. The whole Falcons' offense was unable to find the end zone, so chalk it up to one of those days for everyone. I'd take his line vs. his expectations over many of the other Falcons'.

Nate Burleson
Prediction: 75+ yards and one touchdown, mostly because four guys were covering Megatron on the play
Actual: Again, shorted on the TD, but not the yardage. He caught all five targets he received and added a pretty 20-yard end-around in the first quarter.

Aaron Hernandez:
Prediction: 60+ yards and 1 TD.
Actual: Try 100 yards and a TD. I also had Gronkowski dead on. Neither of these guys will be sneaky plays again anytime soon.

San Francisco DST
Prediction: 3 turnovers and one defensive touchdown while shutting down what Seattle euphemistically calls its "offense"
Actual: I was actually short on predicted value here. The 49ers had one pick and two fumble recoveries, and held Seattle to 219 yards of total offense. I picked them to have a defensive TD as well, but while they didn't pull that off, they had two return TDs.

Correct: Ben Tate, Derrick Ward, Aaron Hernandez, San Francisco DST
Serviceable line: Julio Jones and Nate Burleson
Back to the drawing board: Kerry Collins and Michael Bush
I'll take it!

Man Crush Update
I'm taking Stafford off the official list, because everyone is jumping on the bandwagon now. He's the real deal so let's just hope he lasts a full season. Tolbert might be off the list soon as well for the same reason, but for now I'll just wear my SE grin for a week. (Is it possible he read my column suggesting he would never get 20 fantasy points in one week?) Burleson, McCluster and Julio Jones all did fine and I'll continue to hype them, and I'm far from giving up on Brandon Jacobs.