Saturday, December 4, 2010

Calling an Audible

It's Week 13. This week or next is the final week of the regular season for pretty much everyone. And that puts you into one of three camps: In already, fighting for a playoff spot, or looking forward to next year.

If you're in already, congratulations. Take a bow. Now get back to work. Just because you've qualified doesn't mean you can relax. This means more intensely scouting your upcoming matchups, just as you would for the bye weeks, to see if there is a spot here or there you can tinker with. Take a look to see if your playoff seeding is already set in stone. If it is, forget about your spot positional plays that have good matchups this week, especially that ideal Week 13 DST if you happen to be streaming. You may be able to drop one or more of them for a high upside play in Week 15 instead, and you can certainly modify which depth guys you choose to carry.

Don't bench your studs, but if you're a Gore owner in need of a bandaid, these would be among your better insurance options out there:

Mike Hart: Solid play even in a timeshare earlier this season, consistently outperforming Donald Brown. With an attractive remaining schedule, he's about the best emergency plug as long as Addai remains out.

Cadillac Williams: Certainly more of a desperation play than Hart, but high upside nevertheless. He's made the most of his limited touches recently and like Hart, he's got an excellent remaining schedule. Chances are he will be a solid contributor for the Bucs' playoff run.

Anthony Dixon: Equal to Cadillac in terms of desperation. He played second fiddle to Westbrook after Gore went down, but you can expect a heavier workload given Westbrook's fragile frame (including at least some goalline carries) and he certainly inherits the starting job in the very possible event that Westbrook gets injured. I wouldn't play him this week at Green Bay, but I certainly would consider him next week at home against Seattle.

Tashard Choice: Lightning in a bottle as evidenced by his brief tenures last year as a half timeshare back. If he succeeds in limited work this week (pretty good chance against Indy) expect to see more of him even after Barber is back. And that means a possible golden opportunity in Week 16 at Arizona.

If you're not in it yet, you get to sweat it out with the rest of us this week. Perhaps more than any other week, that means fielding your optimal lineup. Sounds obvious, but there's a lot more to it than usual.

For example, if you're favored by a lot, or have a stronger top-to-bottom roster than your opponent and think your lineup can beat his, you can play it relatively conservatively and simply rely on your regular guys to get the job done.

You can also strategize to mitigate your opponent's potential value players by finding affiliated value of your own. The most obvious play here is to play a receiver that your opponent's QB is commonly throwing to. You can also avoid creating an opportunity for your opponent to double dip anywhere in terms of value, so stash that WR even if you don't play him, and don't play a DST going against your opponent's top skill players. You want to avoid trying to double dip yourself, as one player struggling player would likely adversely affect the other.

Conversely, if you're a significant underdog, risk is your friend. Playing a goalline back or common long bomb target in a likely high-scoring contest, instead of a featureback or possession receiver in a more defensive battle, is one way to make up for potential shortcomings. So is loading up on one team, avoiding those players complementary to your opponent's starters, and/or playing the DST going against your opponent's best players.

This also means calling more fantasy audibles, specifically changing your lineup for the later games after gauging where you stand in the early ones. If you played it conservative and find yourself in a deeper hole than expected towards the end of Sunday's early games, you can swap in a higher-upside but riskier option for the later games to try to make up the deficit. The inverse is true as well - if you put in some risky options to try to beat a favored opponent, and find yourself in good shape Sunday afternoon, you can pull out one or two of those lottery tickets for more consisent performers that may be better options for maintaining your lead to secure the win. This strategy will become even more relevant to everyone once the playoffs begin, so it's great practice.

This is also the time where you'll be able to add to your usual weekly frenzy by keeping an eye on the other matches that affect your chances of a playoff berth. Obviously, you want to root for your competition to lose even if it means a stronger team (already in) increases its lead in the standings. You'll find yourself rooting for players that you long forgot about, although it definitely increases your chances of having conflicting rooting interests based on all the different things that you want to happen.

And even if you're part of the unfortunate 30 percent that's already eliminated, don't stop now. Remember, there are only a little over three months out of the year available to play fantasy football. Don't waste any of them. You're stuck in limbo until next September, pal, might as well get your final licks in.

From a competitive integrity/fairness standpoint, you want to play to the whistle, meaning fielding your best lineup and trying to beat every opponent all the way to the end. But perhaps you can take a less rigid approach to give yourself a more enjoyable sendoff. Don't be afraid to play your emotional favorites (one of mine is Danny Woodhead) if they're within reasonable range of the "better" choices. Use that as an easy tiebreak.

And if your opponent this week is out too, you can have even more fun with it. Set each other's lineups (no drops allowed). Place a separate wager, with him and with other guys who don't qualify, to extend the losers' bracket through Week 16 or 17. And start planning for next year. The draft is only nine months away!

Whether you're in, out or on the bubble, don't forget about shooting for the overall points title. There may or may not be money involved, but there is always pride. You may be 4-8, but that doesn't neccessarily mean you had a bad team.

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