Welcome to the 2011 Fantasy Football Season. Please take a moment to thank whatever deity inspires you that the NFL owners and players figured things out. I shudder to think where we fantasy football fans would end up without our fix. I actually conceptualized a Canadian Football fantasy league out of premature desperation.
Thankfully, enacting such an extreme measure proved unnecessary. The Peyton Manning injury alone, and its subsequent fantasy football ramifications, are enough to keep me going nonstop for about a week.
As usual, I'll be posting on Saturday mornings throughout the season, giving the junkies a little last thing to absorb in the down time between Friday's injury reports and the actual games. In general, I'll aim to share periphery observations, sneaky plays and longer-term fliers instead of just regurgitating the key fantasy news that is available on hundreds of other sites.
And for my first entry of 2011, I'll skip all the hard news as usual and just give you some hard (and heartily rationalized) predictions. At the end of the season, I can look back and laugh, cry, or gloat.
The All Mid-Round Team
These are the guys that will not drafted among the tops at their position, but represent the best chance to produce as such in 2011 without carrying the hefty price tag. Feel great about getting them in Rounds 4-6.
QB: Matt Ryan
RBs: Felix Jones and Beanie Wells
WRs: Julio Jones, Mario Manningham and Kenny Britt
TE: Jimmy Graham
Best mid-round value: Graham. The guy is a baller. He's huge, and Brees loves him. Even with the ball spread around, he's the most likely to get critical looks, and the most likely to have a giant game. Runner-up: Felix Jones.
The All Reserve Team
These are guys likely to be drafted as reserves that could probably be played safely in any week this season. In my mind, the best just-outside-the-starters to own in terms of insurance and plug-and-play vs. most opponents. Superior depth guys.
QB: Eli Manning
RBs: Mike Tolbert and Brandon Jacobs
WRs: Emmanuel Sanders, Lance Moore and Lee Evans
TE: Brandon Pettigrew
Best reserve value: Tolbert. Passing downs AND goalline carries on that team? No doubt he ends up with more fantasy points than Mathews this year. Decent chance to be a kind of lite version of Peyton Hillis this year. Runner-up: Jacobs.
The All Under-the-Radar Team
I can't believe I'm not hearing more buzz about these guys as viable fantasy plays. Not necessarily as starters from Day One, but depth guys with pretty good potential to fill a gap if needed. Don't forget about them.
QB: Kerry Collins
RBs: Willis McGahee and Dexter McCluster
WRs: Nate Burleson, Harry Douglas and Antonio Brown
TE: Lance Kendricks
Best forgotten value: Burleson. The prime beneficiary if Stafford and Megatron remain healthy. He's going to be open enough for Stafford to find him. A lot.
Runner-up: Collins, who had four real strong fantasy games to close out last season despite being on a team with basically one legitimate receiving threat. He now has at least five. Call me crazy, but I like his chances. Granted, he's more likely to look like Eli than Peyton, but I'd much rather play him than a guy like Cutler. And if Manning is indeed out for a while, his chemistry with the receivers and familiarity with the offense only grows. He knows what he's doing and represents a perfect stopgap solution for the Colts and for fantasy owners.
The All Watch List Team
These guys will probably go undrafted in most leagues, but mark my words, they'll be in someone's active lineup at some point in every league before the season is through.
QB: Blaine Gabbert
RBs: Delone Carter and Montario Hardesty
WRs: Arrelious Benn, Titus Young and Denarius Moore
TE: Jared Cook
Best watch list value: Cook. Mostly due to a lack of options, Cook has been and will again be lined up as a wideout. He's big and fast and has good hands and will probably lead the Titans in receptions. Runner-up: Benn.
The All Dynasty Team
These guys are probably not viable options for this year, but if you have available dynasty stashes for 2012 and beyond, go for it.
QB: Cam Newton
RBs: Taiwan Jones and Jacquizz Rodgers
WRs: Demariyus Thomas, Randall Cobb and Vincent Brown
TE: Evan Moore.
Best dynasty value: Vincent Brown. Last year was a great example of what virtually anyone can do in a pass-heavy offense. Possibly Rivers' No. 2 target in 2012. Runner-up: Newton.
The All Overdraft Team
These guys are my predictions for biggest fantasy busts in 2011 based on their average draft position. Let someone else take their chances.
QB: Matt Schaub
RBs: Jahvid Best and Knowshon Moreno
WRs: Brandon Marshall, Brandon Lloyd and Chad Ochocinco
TE: Tony Gonzalez.
Worst average draft position value: Ochocinco. Too many offensive options in New England, so he'll have to get used to being just another cog, and perhaps even primarily a decoy. I think it smells a lot like Randy Moss in 2010.
Runner-up: Best, the rare beast whose fate could be anywhere from finishing as the No. 1 fantasy RB to suffering a season-ending injury in Week One. The 3.2 yards per carry last year and the chances of him getting pulled at the goalline in order to protect him make him absolutely not worth the risk. Difficult to determine if his upside or his downside is greater, so he's just as likely to lose a week for you as to win it. Why bother?
My predictions for the top 5 fantasy producers at each position at season's end (in order):
QB: Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Vick, Ryan (longshot sneak-in: Stafford)
RB: AP, Charles, Rice, McFadden, Foster (longshot sneak-in: Steven Jackson)
WR: Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, Mike Wallace (longshot sneak-in: Dez Bryant)
TE: Gates, Graham, Finley, Witten, Daniels (longshot sneak-in: Kendricks)
Don't laugh at the Ryan and Stafford mentions. These two have Aaron-Rodgers-breakout written all over them.
Early Tips and Observations, a small sampling of the kinds of blog entries to expect:
1. Did you happen to notice Pittsburgh's fantasy playoff schedule? In weeks 13-17, they get Cincinnati and St. Louis at home, at San Francisco, and Cleveland twice. Sure, you'll start the usual offensive guys with a little extra confidence, but the Steelers DST alone might win you the title there. I don't care if James Harrison is only 70-80 percent right now, he should be fine in December. And St. Louis as an upstart threat? Sure, but no dome team is going to excel in Pittsburgh at that time of year. The highest rated DST in most weeks gets a massive boost at the season's most critical spot. Easily worth an early eighth round pick and I'd even reach for them late in the seventh if there wasn't another clear buy there. If you've already drafted and missed 'em, buy relatively low while you still can. This is set up to be the greatest stretch of defensive TDs in history.
2. Todd Haley strikes again. The mastermind behind giving Thomas Jones more touches than Jamaal Charles last year plays his starters deep into meaningless preseason game No. 4, and subsequently loses his tight end (and almost his quarterback.) I have no idea what he'll do with the backfield this year, but I'm on board with everyone else that Charles is due for a monster season. I'm actually so down on Jones (probably losing at least some goalline touches to McClain) that I'm going rapidly up on Dexter McCluster. I think the loss of Moeaki only helps McCluster as another random receiving threat to plug in on the kinds of passing plays that would have suited Moeaki before. He's a wildcard, and despite suggestions to the contrary, I think he takes plenty of snaps as a wideout this year. He just got RB eligibility to go with his WR eligibility in ESPN leagues, making him a perfect possibility to be this year's Danny Woodhead, easily as good as most WR3s and a fine bye week play at RB, taking up only one roster spot instead of two. Love it! And if Charles happens to go down......
3. Apparently I wasn't the only one that connected the dots when Detroit picked up Keiland Williams off waivers from Washington. Latest report has the hulking fullback picking up a lot of the plays originally designed for Mike Leshoure, including the goalline plunges. Can't complain about that role in that offense. Worth a flier at the start of the season, although he may or may not excel quickly in that opportunity.
Good luck to everyone this season, and I hope to see you guys here every Saturday!
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
Saturday, December 11, 2010
It's About Time!
It only took 13 weeks, but James Starks is finally relevant. And even a reasonable upside play this week at Detroit if you're short on options. He burst onto the scene with a shocking 18 touches last week, garnering nearly 80 yards as the primary early down option. I wouldn't count on him for a touchdown, but it's certainly possible.
This is the time of year when complete unknowns come out of the woodwork to win fantasy championships. (Last year, it was Jerome Harrison, Jamaal Charles and Arian Foster.) Unfortunately, most of the managers in position to win championships simply have stronger options, so a lot of these guys never see active duty.
If you are one of those owners who made the playoffs not on the strength of two stud RBs, or lost one late (like Gore,) it's time to do some Christmas shopping.
Starks is one of the better ones, but don't get too excited too quickly. His upside is limited by the focus on the passing game, a few quality alternatives in the backfield, and Aaron Rodgers' penchant for sneaking it in himself when at the goalline.
Tashard Choice is really the guy to roll with here. Despite a few hiccups that seemed to be illogically held against him, he has excelled each time he has been given a real role. This week is only moderately attractive, but when championships are decided in Weeks 15 and 16, Choice draws Washington and Arizona. It doesn't get much better than that. I suspect he retains his new complementary gig even after Barber is back at full strength, and quite possibly becomes the best of the three Dallas RBs in those games. I predict he's good for at least 10 fantasy points in each of the remaining games, although his upside is capped by limited touches.
The cat is out of the bag on Chris Ivory, but it remains to be see how his role develops now that PT is back on board. He certainly not a bad option if he's available, but I believe his touches will steadily decrease and he thus becomes a progressively riskier play.
Starks and Ivory were my big recommended grabs earlier this season, but Ivory was running hot and cold while Starks didn't get his feet under him until last week. Some of my other prognostications proved equally accurate: Danny Woodhead, Fred Jackson and LeGarrette Blount. I also seem to be right on some of my recent playoff DST recomendations: Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Dallas, though we'll have to wait and see how they really do over the next few weeks. (Seriously, Dallas is a great grab for Weeks 15 and 16 if they're still out there.) Others, particularly those where I advised skepticism, proved faulty: Jacob Tamme, Mike Goodson and Ryan Torain.
There is nothing more fun than gambling and winning on a longshot, and little more frustrating than gambling and losing when you benched a more reliable, albeit lower upside, option. But that's what fantasy football is about. It's as much about your gut feeling and chance/luck as it is about the hard statistics. Otherwise, it wouldn't be as much fun.
This will likely be my last column of the year as there is not much I can do to help you from here on out, and not much that hasn't been said repeatedly by someone else already. Make the most of what's left of the fantasy season, and then get ready to get back to enjoying "real" football, in the NFL playoffs, when you can safely go back to rooting for the guys you like regardless of whose fantasy team they were on!
This is the time of year when complete unknowns come out of the woodwork to win fantasy championships. (Last year, it was Jerome Harrison, Jamaal Charles and Arian Foster.) Unfortunately, most of the managers in position to win championships simply have stronger options, so a lot of these guys never see active duty.
If you are one of those owners who made the playoffs not on the strength of two stud RBs, or lost one late (like Gore,) it's time to do some Christmas shopping.
Starks is one of the better ones, but don't get too excited too quickly. His upside is limited by the focus on the passing game, a few quality alternatives in the backfield, and Aaron Rodgers' penchant for sneaking it in himself when at the goalline.
Tashard Choice is really the guy to roll with here. Despite a few hiccups that seemed to be illogically held against him, he has excelled each time he has been given a real role. This week is only moderately attractive, but when championships are decided in Weeks 15 and 16, Choice draws Washington and Arizona. It doesn't get much better than that. I suspect he retains his new complementary gig even after Barber is back at full strength, and quite possibly becomes the best of the three Dallas RBs in those games. I predict he's good for at least 10 fantasy points in each of the remaining games, although his upside is capped by limited touches.
The cat is out of the bag on Chris Ivory, but it remains to be see how his role develops now that PT is back on board. He certainly not a bad option if he's available, but I believe his touches will steadily decrease and he thus becomes a progressively riskier play.
Starks and Ivory were my big recommended grabs earlier this season, but Ivory was running hot and cold while Starks didn't get his feet under him until last week. Some of my other prognostications proved equally accurate: Danny Woodhead, Fred Jackson and LeGarrette Blount. I also seem to be right on some of my recent playoff DST recomendations: Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Dallas, though we'll have to wait and see how they really do over the next few weeks. (Seriously, Dallas is a great grab for Weeks 15 and 16 if they're still out there.) Others, particularly those where I advised skepticism, proved faulty: Jacob Tamme, Mike Goodson and Ryan Torain.
There is nothing more fun than gambling and winning on a longshot, and little more frustrating than gambling and losing when you benched a more reliable, albeit lower upside, option. But that's what fantasy football is about. It's as much about your gut feeling and chance/luck as it is about the hard statistics. Otherwise, it wouldn't be as much fun.
This will likely be my last column of the year as there is not much I can do to help you from here on out, and not much that hasn't been said repeatedly by someone else already. Make the most of what's left of the fantasy season, and then get ready to get back to enjoying "real" football, in the NFL playoffs, when you can safely go back to rooting for the guys you like regardless of whose fantasy team they were on!
Saturday, December 4, 2010
Calling an Audible
It's Week 13. This week or next is the final week of the regular season for pretty much everyone. And that puts you into one of three camps: In already, fighting for a playoff spot, or looking forward to next year.
If you're in already, congratulations. Take a bow. Now get back to work. Just because you've qualified doesn't mean you can relax. This means more intensely scouting your upcoming matchups, just as you would for the bye weeks, to see if there is a spot here or there you can tinker with. Take a look to see if your playoff seeding is already set in stone. If it is, forget about your spot positional plays that have good matchups this week, especially that ideal Week 13 DST if you happen to be streaming. You may be able to drop one or more of them for a high upside play in Week 15 instead, and you can certainly modify which depth guys you choose to carry.
Don't bench your studs, but if you're a Gore owner in need of a bandaid, these would be among your better insurance options out there:
Mike Hart: Solid play even in a timeshare earlier this season, consistently outperforming Donald Brown. With an attractive remaining schedule, he's about the best emergency plug as long as Addai remains out.
Cadillac Williams: Certainly more of a desperation play than Hart, but high upside nevertheless. He's made the most of his limited touches recently and like Hart, he's got an excellent remaining schedule. Chances are he will be a solid contributor for the Bucs' playoff run.
Anthony Dixon: Equal to Cadillac in terms of desperation. He played second fiddle to Westbrook after Gore went down, but you can expect a heavier workload given Westbrook's fragile frame (including at least some goalline carries) and he certainly inherits the starting job in the very possible event that Westbrook gets injured. I wouldn't play him this week at Green Bay, but I certainly would consider him next week at home against Seattle.
Tashard Choice: Lightning in a bottle as evidenced by his brief tenures last year as a half timeshare back. If he succeeds in limited work this week (pretty good chance against Indy) expect to see more of him even after Barber is back. And that means a possible golden opportunity in Week 16 at Arizona.
If you're not in it yet, you get to sweat it out with the rest of us this week. Perhaps more than any other week, that means fielding your optimal lineup. Sounds obvious, but there's a lot more to it than usual.
For example, if you're favored by a lot, or have a stronger top-to-bottom roster than your opponent and think your lineup can beat his, you can play it relatively conservatively and simply rely on your regular guys to get the job done.
You can also strategize to mitigate your opponent's potential value players by finding affiliated value of your own. The most obvious play here is to play a receiver that your opponent's QB is commonly throwing to. You can also avoid creating an opportunity for your opponent to double dip anywhere in terms of value, so stash that WR even if you don't play him, and don't play a DST going against your opponent's top skill players. You want to avoid trying to double dip yourself, as one player struggling player would likely adversely affect the other.
Conversely, if you're a significant underdog, risk is your friend. Playing a goalline back or common long bomb target in a likely high-scoring contest, instead of a featureback or possession receiver in a more defensive battle, is one way to make up for potential shortcomings. So is loading up on one team, avoiding those players complementary to your opponent's starters, and/or playing the DST going against your opponent's best players.
This also means calling more fantasy audibles, specifically changing your lineup for the later games after gauging where you stand in the early ones. If you played it conservative and find yourself in a deeper hole than expected towards the end of Sunday's early games, you can swap in a higher-upside but riskier option for the later games to try to make up the deficit. The inverse is true as well - if you put in some risky options to try to beat a favored opponent, and find yourself in good shape Sunday afternoon, you can pull out one or two of those lottery tickets for more consisent performers that may be better options for maintaining your lead to secure the win. This strategy will become even more relevant to everyone once the playoffs begin, so it's great practice.
This is also the time where you'll be able to add to your usual weekly frenzy by keeping an eye on the other matches that affect your chances of a playoff berth. Obviously, you want to root for your competition to lose even if it means a stronger team (already in) increases its lead in the standings. You'll find yourself rooting for players that you long forgot about, although it definitely increases your chances of having conflicting rooting interests based on all the different things that you want to happen.
And even if you're part of the unfortunate 30 percent that's already eliminated, don't stop now. Remember, there are only a little over three months out of the year available to play fantasy football. Don't waste any of them. You're stuck in limbo until next September, pal, might as well get your final licks in.
From a competitive integrity/fairness standpoint, you want to play to the whistle, meaning fielding your best lineup and trying to beat every opponent all the way to the end. But perhaps you can take a less rigid approach to give yourself a more enjoyable sendoff. Don't be afraid to play your emotional favorites (one of mine is Danny Woodhead) if they're within reasonable range of the "better" choices. Use that as an easy tiebreak.
And if your opponent this week is out too, you can have even more fun with it. Set each other's lineups (no drops allowed). Place a separate wager, with him and with other guys who don't qualify, to extend the losers' bracket through Week 16 or 17. And start planning for next year. The draft is only nine months away!
Whether you're in, out or on the bubble, don't forget about shooting for the overall points title. There may or may not be money involved, but there is always pride. You may be 4-8, but that doesn't neccessarily mean you had a bad team.
If you're in already, congratulations. Take a bow. Now get back to work. Just because you've qualified doesn't mean you can relax. This means more intensely scouting your upcoming matchups, just as you would for the bye weeks, to see if there is a spot here or there you can tinker with. Take a look to see if your playoff seeding is already set in stone. If it is, forget about your spot positional plays that have good matchups this week, especially that ideal Week 13 DST if you happen to be streaming. You may be able to drop one or more of them for a high upside play in Week 15 instead, and you can certainly modify which depth guys you choose to carry.
Don't bench your studs, but if you're a Gore owner in need of a bandaid, these would be among your better insurance options out there:
Mike Hart: Solid play even in a timeshare earlier this season, consistently outperforming Donald Brown. With an attractive remaining schedule, he's about the best emergency plug as long as Addai remains out.
Cadillac Williams: Certainly more of a desperation play than Hart, but high upside nevertheless. He's made the most of his limited touches recently and like Hart, he's got an excellent remaining schedule. Chances are he will be a solid contributor for the Bucs' playoff run.
Anthony Dixon: Equal to Cadillac in terms of desperation. He played second fiddle to Westbrook after Gore went down, but you can expect a heavier workload given Westbrook's fragile frame (including at least some goalline carries) and he certainly inherits the starting job in the very possible event that Westbrook gets injured. I wouldn't play him this week at Green Bay, but I certainly would consider him next week at home against Seattle.
Tashard Choice: Lightning in a bottle as evidenced by his brief tenures last year as a half timeshare back. If he succeeds in limited work this week (pretty good chance against Indy) expect to see more of him even after Barber is back. And that means a possible golden opportunity in Week 16 at Arizona.
If you're not in it yet, you get to sweat it out with the rest of us this week. Perhaps more than any other week, that means fielding your optimal lineup. Sounds obvious, but there's a lot more to it than usual.
For example, if you're favored by a lot, or have a stronger top-to-bottom roster than your opponent and think your lineup can beat his, you can play it relatively conservatively and simply rely on your regular guys to get the job done.
You can also strategize to mitigate your opponent's potential value players by finding affiliated value of your own. The most obvious play here is to play a receiver that your opponent's QB is commonly throwing to. You can also avoid creating an opportunity for your opponent to double dip anywhere in terms of value, so stash that WR even if you don't play him, and don't play a DST going against your opponent's top skill players. You want to avoid trying to double dip yourself, as one player struggling player would likely adversely affect the other.
Conversely, if you're a significant underdog, risk is your friend. Playing a goalline back or common long bomb target in a likely high-scoring contest, instead of a featureback or possession receiver in a more defensive battle, is one way to make up for potential shortcomings. So is loading up on one team, avoiding those players complementary to your opponent's starters, and/or playing the DST going against your opponent's best players.
This also means calling more fantasy audibles, specifically changing your lineup for the later games after gauging where you stand in the early ones. If you played it conservative and find yourself in a deeper hole than expected towards the end of Sunday's early games, you can swap in a higher-upside but riskier option for the later games to try to make up the deficit. The inverse is true as well - if you put in some risky options to try to beat a favored opponent, and find yourself in good shape Sunday afternoon, you can pull out one or two of those lottery tickets for more consisent performers that may be better options for maintaining your lead to secure the win. This strategy will become even more relevant to everyone once the playoffs begin, so it's great practice.
This is also the time where you'll be able to add to your usual weekly frenzy by keeping an eye on the other matches that affect your chances of a playoff berth. Obviously, you want to root for your competition to lose even if it means a stronger team (already in) increases its lead in the standings. You'll find yourself rooting for players that you long forgot about, although it definitely increases your chances of having conflicting rooting interests based on all the different things that you want to happen.
And even if you're part of the unfortunate 30 percent that's already eliminated, don't stop now. Remember, there are only a little over three months out of the year available to play fantasy football. Don't waste any of them. You're stuck in limbo until next September, pal, might as well get your final licks in.
From a competitive integrity/fairness standpoint, you want to play to the whistle, meaning fielding your best lineup and trying to beat every opponent all the way to the end. But perhaps you can take a less rigid approach to give yourself a more enjoyable sendoff. Don't be afraid to play your emotional favorites (one of mine is Danny Woodhead) if they're within reasonable range of the "better" choices. Use that as an easy tiebreak.
And if your opponent this week is out too, you can have even more fun with it. Set each other's lineups (no drops allowed). Place a separate wager, with him and with other guys who don't qualify, to extend the losers' bracket through Week 16 or 17. And start planning for next year. The draft is only nine months away!
Whether you're in, out or on the bubble, don't forget about shooting for the overall points title. There may or may not be money involved, but there is always pride. You may be 4-8, but that doesn't neccessarily mean you had a bad team.
Saturday, November 27, 2010
Illegal Block?
Whether or not you have qualified for your fantasy playoffs, now is the time to make your preparations for that possibility.
Dump that mediocre fourth RB and fifth WR that were keeping you afloat during the bye weeks. If you still have a third QB, you're insane. He's not helping you. The only justification for holding onto these guys is a great potential matchup in the semifinal or championship week (usually Weeks 15 and 16) or simply to prevent a potential opponent from using him against you.
This brings up an interesting dilemma. Is it OK to "block" other owners, specifically an upcoming head-to-head opponent, by rostering an inactive player that they might actually use against you? ESPN's default rules say that impeding other owners is not allowed, but it identifies more the practice of cycling guys through waivers, not specifically single-player acquisitions and certainly not simply retaining a player you no longer intend to use.
If allowed, roster moves like these create unique advantages and should be used accordingly. If not allowed, etiquette and integrity prevent using them. It all depends on your individual league, but it's most important that every owner knows what the boundaries are and operates within them. It is your responsibility to know what they are, and it's in your best interest to operate within them to your maximum advantage while simultaneously trying to prevent a similar advantage an opponent can use over you.
Keeping a player that you won't use just to prevent a potential opponent from using him against you is almost universally acceptable. So if one of your potential opponents in the coming weeks is desperate for a quarterback, you may want to keep that third guy after all. Although if he's comparable to multiple guys on the waiver wire already, there's no point because your opponent can just as easily pick up one of those guys. But take a look at potential favorable matchups just in case. Good examples here are Jon Kitna and David Garrard, who host Washington in Weeks 15 and 16, respectively. You'd feel pretty silly if you dropped Garrard and then lost because of him in Week 16. Obviously, if your potential opponents have Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers, they're not going to play Garrard. But if they have Eli Manning or Matt Schaub, they might sneak him in.
Cycling players through waivers is almost universally frowned upon, but some leagues actually allow it, either expressly or via a gentlemen's agreement. There are infinite combinations of using this to your advantage if allowed, but it's usually safe to assume it's not.
The gray area falls in single-player acquisitions, specifically acquiring a player that you are unlikely to use with full knowledge that your opponent that week would likely use against you. This commonly occurs with injured RBs, whereby you acquire your opponent's backup when the starter gets injured, even though you still have four viable RBs ahead of him. Your opponent basically gets "unfairly" screwed.
But there is rational justification for such a transaction, the most logical of which is acquiring the player with the intent of trading him to another player that needs an RB. No owner should be denied of a tradeable asset, even if such a trade never comes to fruition. (It's a tougher sell after your trade deadline though!)
The more borderline transaction would be acquiring the best available QB (or two) during your opponent's QB's bye week when there is no real current or future benefit to you. I'm actually in favor of allowing transactions like these because it requires the offending owner to burn a legitimately valuable roster spot. It's thus a critical decision, like any other. Conversely, I'm not in favor of allowing cycling guys through waivers because it does not require using any more roster spots than the single-player acquisition method (thus the sacrifice is much smaller for the individual benefit) and it unnecessarily compromises the pool of available players for the entire field or participants.
Regardless, your individual league's settings and all the participants' knowledge of them are, as stated, the most critical factor in deciding what transactions you can/cannot or should/should not make. Know them and use them, and make sure your opponents know them and use them too. There's nothing better than participating in a league with owners just as savvy and as motivated as you.
If you find yourself in a league debating what is OK and not in terms of blocking, try proposing a rule whereby owners must roster any acquired player through a full week of games. This forces owners to burn that roster spot for the duration and make much more critical choices in terms of its timely use, while still allowing the potential for strategic blocks. And if you want to get really crazy, try requiring owners to activate any player acquired in the week in which they were acquired. That makes all acquisitions even more critical/strategic, but stifles a lot of the vital ability to acquire players specifically for future use. Probably not worth instituting such a rule, but interesting nonetheless.
The subject of future use becomes especially important to keeper and dynasty leaguers at this time of year. Whether or not you've made the playoffs, you can start planning for next year, at least minimally with an available roster spot or two. And the number of keepers you have is the determining factor for your strategy. If you have a small number (four or less) it is highly unlikely any acquisition right now will make your cut for next year, so don't even bother. If you have more though (6-10) you might be able to draw a lucky lottery ticket like Arian Foster. I grabbed him on a whim in a six-keeper league during his late surge last season, thinking he was one conceivable answer in the backfield for an otherwise juggernaut offense, and thus fantasy gold. The drafting of Ben Tate didn't help, but Tate's injury and Foster's solid preseason did. Nevertheless, he was still my final cut, just behind Dallas Clark. Whoops. I also kept Shonn Greene. Double whoops. But these kinds of opportunities are out there all the time, and it's the prudent owner that takes advantage via small calculated risks at this time of year.
If you're in a full keeper dynasty league, the strategies shift considerably. You can build a strong top-to-bottom squad, with a roster full of presently usable assets that will keep you competitive for multiple seasons, or you can use some of your spots for higher upside futures, which is generally the better strategy. There is a long list of guys that qualify as future-but-not-present values, but some of the best bets include Tashard Choice, Bernard Scott, Arrelious Benn, Demariyus Thomas, Sam Bradford and Josh Freeman. Matt Stafford, and more recently James Jones, have extremely high potential dynasty value and should definitely be grabbed if they are still available in your pool. Among the tight ends, I like the Saints' Jimmy Graham, but he may be a tough weekly play regardless given the ridiculously high number of options that Drew Brees has.
This started as the year of the tight end, and stayed true as much, but for different reasons. What was once an extremely deep pool became shallow in a matter of a few weeks, but it still adds up to the same thing: most owners have the same access as any other owner to about the same value at the position. There were a ton of high end guys to start (10+ points per game), and now a ton of mediocre guys (4-5 points per game). Antonio Gates, the only option that was ever truly elite, is now creating fits for his owners. Midseason darling Aaron Hernandez is now being regularly dropped for Rob Gronkowski, as if it makes a difference. You might make a case for Jason Witten, Vernon Davis or Jacob Tamme, but in reality, there are no more truly reliable options available.
Dump that mediocre fourth RB and fifth WR that were keeping you afloat during the bye weeks. If you still have a third QB, you're insane. He's not helping you. The only justification for holding onto these guys is a great potential matchup in the semifinal or championship week (usually Weeks 15 and 16) or simply to prevent a potential opponent from using him against you.
This brings up an interesting dilemma. Is it OK to "block" other owners, specifically an upcoming head-to-head opponent, by rostering an inactive player that they might actually use against you? ESPN's default rules say that impeding other owners is not allowed, but it identifies more the practice of cycling guys through waivers, not specifically single-player acquisitions and certainly not simply retaining a player you no longer intend to use.
If allowed, roster moves like these create unique advantages and should be used accordingly. If not allowed, etiquette and integrity prevent using them. It all depends on your individual league, but it's most important that every owner knows what the boundaries are and operates within them. It is your responsibility to know what they are, and it's in your best interest to operate within them to your maximum advantage while simultaneously trying to prevent a similar advantage an opponent can use over you.
Keeping a player that you won't use just to prevent a potential opponent from using him against you is almost universally acceptable. So if one of your potential opponents in the coming weeks is desperate for a quarterback, you may want to keep that third guy after all. Although if he's comparable to multiple guys on the waiver wire already, there's no point because your opponent can just as easily pick up one of those guys. But take a look at potential favorable matchups just in case. Good examples here are Jon Kitna and David Garrard, who host Washington in Weeks 15 and 16, respectively. You'd feel pretty silly if you dropped Garrard and then lost because of him in Week 16. Obviously, if your potential opponents have Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers, they're not going to play Garrard. But if they have Eli Manning or Matt Schaub, they might sneak him in.
Cycling players through waivers is almost universally frowned upon, but some leagues actually allow it, either expressly or via a gentlemen's agreement. There are infinite combinations of using this to your advantage if allowed, but it's usually safe to assume it's not.
The gray area falls in single-player acquisitions, specifically acquiring a player that you are unlikely to use with full knowledge that your opponent that week would likely use against you. This commonly occurs with injured RBs, whereby you acquire your opponent's backup when the starter gets injured, even though you still have four viable RBs ahead of him. Your opponent basically gets "unfairly" screwed.
But there is rational justification for such a transaction, the most logical of which is acquiring the player with the intent of trading him to another player that needs an RB. No owner should be denied of a tradeable asset, even if such a trade never comes to fruition. (It's a tougher sell after your trade deadline though!)
The more borderline transaction would be acquiring the best available QB (or two) during your opponent's QB's bye week when there is no real current or future benefit to you. I'm actually in favor of allowing transactions like these because it requires the offending owner to burn a legitimately valuable roster spot. It's thus a critical decision, like any other. Conversely, I'm not in favor of allowing cycling guys through waivers because it does not require using any more roster spots than the single-player acquisition method (thus the sacrifice is much smaller for the individual benefit) and it unnecessarily compromises the pool of available players for the entire field or participants.
Regardless, your individual league's settings and all the participants' knowledge of them are, as stated, the most critical factor in deciding what transactions you can/cannot or should/should not make. Know them and use them, and make sure your opponents know them and use them too. There's nothing better than participating in a league with owners just as savvy and as motivated as you.
If you find yourself in a league debating what is OK and not in terms of blocking, try proposing a rule whereby owners must roster any acquired player through a full week of games. This forces owners to burn that roster spot for the duration and make much more critical choices in terms of its timely use, while still allowing the potential for strategic blocks. And if you want to get really crazy, try requiring owners to activate any player acquired in the week in which they were acquired. That makes all acquisitions even more critical/strategic, but stifles a lot of the vital ability to acquire players specifically for future use. Probably not worth instituting such a rule, but interesting nonetheless.
The subject of future use becomes especially important to keeper and dynasty leaguers at this time of year. Whether or not you've made the playoffs, you can start planning for next year, at least minimally with an available roster spot or two. And the number of keepers you have is the determining factor for your strategy. If you have a small number (four or less) it is highly unlikely any acquisition right now will make your cut for next year, so don't even bother. If you have more though (6-10) you might be able to draw a lucky lottery ticket like Arian Foster. I grabbed him on a whim in a six-keeper league during his late surge last season, thinking he was one conceivable answer in the backfield for an otherwise juggernaut offense, and thus fantasy gold. The drafting of Ben Tate didn't help, but Tate's injury and Foster's solid preseason did. Nevertheless, he was still my final cut, just behind Dallas Clark. Whoops. I also kept Shonn Greene. Double whoops. But these kinds of opportunities are out there all the time, and it's the prudent owner that takes advantage via small calculated risks at this time of year.
If you're in a full keeper dynasty league, the strategies shift considerably. You can build a strong top-to-bottom squad, with a roster full of presently usable assets that will keep you competitive for multiple seasons, or you can use some of your spots for higher upside futures, which is generally the better strategy. There is a long list of guys that qualify as future-but-not-present values, but some of the best bets include Tashard Choice, Bernard Scott, Arrelious Benn, Demariyus Thomas, Sam Bradford and Josh Freeman. Matt Stafford, and more recently James Jones, have extremely high potential dynasty value and should definitely be grabbed if they are still available in your pool. Among the tight ends, I like the Saints' Jimmy Graham, but he may be a tough weekly play regardless given the ridiculously high number of options that Drew Brees has.
This started as the year of the tight end, and stayed true as much, but for different reasons. What was once an extremely deep pool became shallow in a matter of a few weeks, but it still adds up to the same thing: most owners have the same access as any other owner to about the same value at the position. There were a ton of high end guys to start (10+ points per game), and now a ton of mediocre guys (4-5 points per game). Antonio Gates, the only option that was ever truly elite, is now creating fits for his owners. Midseason darling Aaron Hernandez is now being regularly dropped for Rob Gronkowski, as if it makes a difference. You might make a case for Jason Witten, Vernon Davis or Jacob Tamme, but in reality, there are no more truly reliable options available.
Saturday, November 20, 2010
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
When you're fighting for a fantasy playoff spot, there's nothing worse than picking the wrong guy to play in a given week, and losing the match because of it.
Week 10 was arguably the signature week for this reality in 2010. Jacoby Jones and Joel Dreessen, two of my favorite plug-and-plays against a highly favorable opponent, both put up zeroes. On the other side, Mike Thomas was putting up a much more serviceable line even before his Hail Mary catch made him a top 10 guy.
In a week where former backup Michael Vick broke the all-time fantasy football record for QBs, and at least 10 quarterbacks had monster weeks, Peyton Manning was nearly invisible. He wasn't even in the top 20. But I highly doubt any of his owners DIDN'T play him. It just seems like not having Clark, Collie and Addai is hurting him a lot more in fantasy than in reality. This would be an extremely difficult guy to bench, but if he doesn't start doing more, owners are going to have to at least consider it if they have other high-end options.
I'm going against the grain here, but I'm recommending Kevin Boss as a legit TE plug-in option this week and next. Risky, but good upside. Philadelphia and Jacksonville are both generous to tight ends and Boss got his most looks of the season last week with Steve Smith out, finishing with 81 yards and a touchdown. The problem with taking a stab at Boss is that there are probably now plenty of alternatives, even with all the injuries to elite TEs. With the bye weeks over, owners are dropping their reserves, putting Boss way down the list. The more popular pick is Jermaine Gresham, and I can't exactly argue with that. He's fresh off a big game at Indianapolis and now has a home game against the Bills, who basically hand five points to every tight end as soon as the opening kickoff occurs.
I've written before about tight end matchup ratings being less reliable than others, and I'm not wavering from that. But when you come into weeks where there are a hodgepodge of options after the top four of five, like this week, it's yet another tool at your disposal. Boss is basically a Hail Mary here, but he could easily outproduce Chris Cooley, a much more conventional choice. Gresham is probably mathematically the better play, and it's easy to get excited about his fantasy playoff schedule.
Several sites offer matchup ratings, and ESPN's built-in one on the team pages (OPRK) is about the best lazy man's option ever invented. I give them credit for putting a lot of useful defaults right there for you to make an informed decision every week. (Reminder: Ignore the projections.) Unfortunately, it is reflective of the entire season, which does not necessarily reflect recent performances, either in the positive or negative.
Fantasy football is a lot about What-Have-You-Done-For-Me-Lately. Both in the subjective (the player himself) and the objective (the opponent). The best site I have found so far to give you an idea of what a guy is up against, for the upcoming weeks and for the playoffs, is fftoday.com. The specific section is
http://fftoday.com/stats/fantasystats.php?o=3&PosID=10&Side=Allowed&LeagueID=1
These graphs quickly map out the most favorable schedules by position, reflecting how opponents have fared against each position over the past five weeks. And what you want to be looking at right now are your playoff weeks. Granted, you have to get there first. But now that the bye weeks are over, you should have at least a roster spot or two to prep for the playoffs. Start getting your claims in now, because the attractive plays aren't going to last. You can always switch them later, but you might as well take a few gambles with whatever spots you've got now.
There aren't going to be many position players on the wire that are necessarily going to be better than the guys you've got for those weeks. You definitely want to stick with your studs over speculative picks, even in tough matchups, when the prize is on the line. But if you've got a marginal guy in your starting lineup, it's worth stashing another guy that might be a better option later. The guy that comes to mind for me is Robert Meachem, with plus matchups in Weeks 15 and 16 and a couple of others even before that. (Don't be fooled - Baltimore is a plus matchup this season.) With PT and Bush back soon, this attack will take off once again. I really believe the defending Superbowl champs will be gold in the fantasy playoffs. Great news for owners of Drew Brees. I also like Arrelious Benn (and especially Josh Freeman for you Matt Schaub owners. Totally worth it even if you have to trade for him.)
The wisest use of those extra spots though is to pick out your DST path. I mentioned this before, but it bears repeating now. Based on plus matchups, you can plan right now for which DSTs you want to use in each of the remaining weeks. Ideally, you will find two that you can rely on to compliment each other for the rest of the season, one one week, the other the next, and so on. Carolina is easily the most attractive potential opponent right now - almost any DST against them has an immediate fantasy advantage. They have Atlanta in Weeks 14 and 17, Arizona in Week 15, and have a match-made-in-fantasy-heaven for Steelers owners in Week 16. The Steelers are arguably the best DST play at any time, especially in common playoff weeks 14-16 (THREE home games vs. Cincy, the Jets and Carolina), but they are not going to be available in your pool.
Your focus should be on Atlanta. Arizona is actually one of the stronger DSTs this year, but mostly due to the inordinate frequency of TDs. The Cardinals' DST has scored at least one TD in five of its nine games, and twice has scored two. But hosting a seemingly attractive opponent (Seattle) last week, the Arizona DST did not score and finished in the negative. Very risky play. And their Week 16 opponent is Dallas - who knows which Cowboy offense will show up, the one that was totally deficient for the final four games of the Wade Philips era, or the new Jason Garrett model that humbled a strong DST (Giants) on the road in Week 10? I think Arizona is OK in Week 15, but that may be it.
Atlanta, on the other hand, has just one DST TD this year, but has been much more consistent as a unit even though their average is only middle-of-the-road. The Falcons follow up their Week 14 at Carolina with Week 15 at Seattle, representing arguably the best combination in those critical weeks. I think that's the team to start owning now in preparation for that.
You could also make a great case for Tampa Bay, who draws a suddenly hopeless Washington in Week 14, followed by Detroit and Seattle in Weeks 15 and 16. The Buccaneers have a good team that's in contention - they're going to play hard to the wire and each of those squads can be exploited for one reason or another.
And if you really want to reach, try Dallas. Ordinary at best on the defensive side of things this year, the originally high-ranked DST may be coming back to life under Garrett. If this unit is successfully resurrected, it's looking at Washington and Arizona in Weeks 15 and 16. Arizona might be behind only Carolina in terms of a good opponent to have.
Man Crush Update:
This section is definitely swinging heavily in favor of Tampa Bay. I like all of them, and with cause. It's a wonderful fantasy playoff schedule, so stock up while you can. This goes for redraft leagues and keeper/dynasty leagues. It's time to invest before they turn into the Colts.
Danny Woodhead had a predictably light day against the Steelers, but I still think he's a terrific depth guy to have as needed. Unfortunately, Fred Taylor is due back and the bye weeks are over. Might be worth trying to trade if you don't really need him and someone else does. But if he's back with the Pats next year, especially in the unlikely event that he retains dual positional eligibility, he's an absolutely fantastic draft pick as your #4 RB or #5 WR.
As for Chris Ivory and James Starks, the luster has significantly diminished. I'm not ready to count out either, but they both should be on waiver wires for now.
Week 10 was arguably the signature week for this reality in 2010. Jacoby Jones and Joel Dreessen, two of my favorite plug-and-plays against a highly favorable opponent, both put up zeroes. On the other side, Mike Thomas was putting up a much more serviceable line even before his Hail Mary catch made him a top 10 guy.
In a week where former backup Michael Vick broke the all-time fantasy football record for QBs, and at least 10 quarterbacks had monster weeks, Peyton Manning was nearly invisible. He wasn't even in the top 20. But I highly doubt any of his owners DIDN'T play him. It just seems like not having Clark, Collie and Addai is hurting him a lot more in fantasy than in reality. This would be an extremely difficult guy to bench, but if he doesn't start doing more, owners are going to have to at least consider it if they have other high-end options.
I'm going against the grain here, but I'm recommending Kevin Boss as a legit TE plug-in option this week and next. Risky, but good upside. Philadelphia and Jacksonville are both generous to tight ends and Boss got his most looks of the season last week with Steve Smith out, finishing with 81 yards and a touchdown. The problem with taking a stab at Boss is that there are probably now plenty of alternatives, even with all the injuries to elite TEs. With the bye weeks over, owners are dropping their reserves, putting Boss way down the list. The more popular pick is Jermaine Gresham, and I can't exactly argue with that. He's fresh off a big game at Indianapolis and now has a home game against the Bills, who basically hand five points to every tight end as soon as the opening kickoff occurs.
I've written before about tight end matchup ratings being less reliable than others, and I'm not wavering from that. But when you come into weeks where there are a hodgepodge of options after the top four of five, like this week, it's yet another tool at your disposal. Boss is basically a Hail Mary here, but he could easily outproduce Chris Cooley, a much more conventional choice. Gresham is probably mathematically the better play, and it's easy to get excited about his fantasy playoff schedule.
Several sites offer matchup ratings, and ESPN's built-in one on the team pages (OPRK) is about the best lazy man's option ever invented. I give them credit for putting a lot of useful defaults right there for you to make an informed decision every week. (Reminder: Ignore the projections.) Unfortunately, it is reflective of the entire season, which does not necessarily reflect recent performances, either in the positive or negative.
Fantasy football is a lot about What-Have-You-Done-For-Me-Lately. Both in the subjective (the player himself) and the objective (the opponent). The best site I have found so far to give you an idea of what a guy is up against, for the upcoming weeks and for the playoffs, is fftoday.com. The specific section is
http://fftoday.com/stats/fantasystats.php?o=3&PosID=10&Side=Allowed&LeagueID=1
These graphs quickly map out the most favorable schedules by position, reflecting how opponents have fared against each position over the past five weeks. And what you want to be looking at right now are your playoff weeks. Granted, you have to get there first. But now that the bye weeks are over, you should have at least a roster spot or two to prep for the playoffs. Start getting your claims in now, because the attractive plays aren't going to last. You can always switch them later, but you might as well take a few gambles with whatever spots you've got now.
There aren't going to be many position players on the wire that are necessarily going to be better than the guys you've got for those weeks. You definitely want to stick with your studs over speculative picks, even in tough matchups, when the prize is on the line. But if you've got a marginal guy in your starting lineup, it's worth stashing another guy that might be a better option later. The guy that comes to mind for me is Robert Meachem, with plus matchups in Weeks 15 and 16 and a couple of others even before that. (Don't be fooled - Baltimore is a plus matchup this season.) With PT and Bush back soon, this attack will take off once again. I really believe the defending Superbowl champs will be gold in the fantasy playoffs. Great news for owners of Drew Brees. I also like Arrelious Benn (and especially Josh Freeman for you Matt Schaub owners. Totally worth it even if you have to trade for him.)
The wisest use of those extra spots though is to pick out your DST path. I mentioned this before, but it bears repeating now. Based on plus matchups, you can plan right now for which DSTs you want to use in each of the remaining weeks. Ideally, you will find two that you can rely on to compliment each other for the rest of the season, one one week, the other the next, and so on. Carolina is easily the most attractive potential opponent right now - almost any DST against them has an immediate fantasy advantage. They have Atlanta in Weeks 14 and 17, Arizona in Week 15, and have a match-made-in-fantasy-heaven for Steelers owners in Week 16. The Steelers are arguably the best DST play at any time, especially in common playoff weeks 14-16 (THREE home games vs. Cincy, the Jets and Carolina), but they are not going to be available in your pool.
Your focus should be on Atlanta. Arizona is actually one of the stronger DSTs this year, but mostly due to the inordinate frequency of TDs. The Cardinals' DST has scored at least one TD in five of its nine games, and twice has scored two. But hosting a seemingly attractive opponent (Seattle) last week, the Arizona DST did not score and finished in the negative. Very risky play. And their Week 16 opponent is Dallas - who knows which Cowboy offense will show up, the one that was totally deficient for the final four games of the Wade Philips era, or the new Jason Garrett model that humbled a strong DST (Giants) on the road in Week 10? I think Arizona is OK in Week 15, but that may be it.
Atlanta, on the other hand, has just one DST TD this year, but has been much more consistent as a unit even though their average is only middle-of-the-road. The Falcons follow up their Week 14 at Carolina with Week 15 at Seattle, representing arguably the best combination in those critical weeks. I think that's the team to start owning now in preparation for that.
You could also make a great case for Tampa Bay, who draws a suddenly hopeless Washington in Week 14, followed by Detroit and Seattle in Weeks 15 and 16. The Buccaneers have a good team that's in contention - they're going to play hard to the wire and each of those squads can be exploited for one reason or another.
And if you really want to reach, try Dallas. Ordinary at best on the defensive side of things this year, the originally high-ranked DST may be coming back to life under Garrett. If this unit is successfully resurrected, it's looking at Washington and Arizona in Weeks 15 and 16. Arizona might be behind only Carolina in terms of a good opponent to have.
Man Crush Update:
This section is definitely swinging heavily in favor of Tampa Bay. I like all of them, and with cause. It's a wonderful fantasy playoff schedule, so stock up while you can. This goes for redraft leagues and keeper/dynasty leagues. It's time to invest before they turn into the Colts.
Danny Woodhead had a predictably light day against the Steelers, but I still think he's a terrific depth guy to have as needed. Unfortunately, Fred Taylor is due back and the bye weeks are over. Might be worth trying to trade if you don't really need him and someone else does. But if he's back with the Pats next year, especially in the unlikely event that he retains dual positional eligibility, he's an absolutely fantastic draft pick as your #4 RB or #5 WR.
As for Chris Ivory and James Starks, the luster has significantly diminished. I'm not ready to count out either, but they both should be on waiver wires for now.
Saturday, November 13, 2010
Week 10 Potpourri
"Potpourri" should never be used in a fantasy football column. Ever. Just like Darrius Heyward-Bey should never be used in a fantasy football lineup. Ever.
But unlike DHB, potpourri seems fitting here given the lack of a consistent theme this week. Let's call it a stew. A beef stew.
The first ingredient is quarterbacks, as in three elite ones on a bye this week. I have no idea how Jason Campbell owners will truly cope without him this week, but there are plenty of sneaky options.
David Garrard is far and away Option #1 if he's available, and he's easily a Top 10 play this week for anyone, threatening for Top 5. His last appearance was a five-touchdown gem at Dallas and he had the bye week to prepare for this week's home game against an even more generous Houston secondary. Three TDs and 250+ yards seems doable.
After him, it's at least a step or two down to the next guys, but they're all viable for a serviceable stat line. I like Josh Freeman the best, despite an unfavorable matchup, and I still say it's only going to get better going forward. Vince Young is worthwhile (albeit risky) if active as Randy Moss adds a whole new dimension to the Titans' vertical attack. Kerry Collins.... not so much.
A follower of the column recently suggested I comment on how late inactives among defensive players affect opposing offensive player matchups. It's a good concept, and one that is too often overlooked and underreported. Unfortunately, I haven't delved enough into that area of gameday research to adequately address it. But it is great food for thought if you want to spend the time to monitor it.
Questionable/doubtful/out tags on Friday's injury reports can clearly improve the outlook for individual offensive players, just as similar reports for offensive linemen have the opposite effect. If you take a little extra time to note who's in and out on Sunday, you may end up with an unheralded gem or at least scrape up an excellent tiebreaker between two otherwise even players.
Branching off of that though, I can comment generally on how some defensive players significantly affect the fantasy potential of their offensive opponents. Darrelle Revis is the best example of an individual player altering an offensive player's matchup, and he was back to his old Revis Island self last week, limiting elite talent Calvin Johnson to just one catch on only four targets. Revis' first dedicated coverage of the season was a resounding success, and every No. 1 WR playing against him for the rest of season must be started with dramatically lowered expectations.
There is a flip side to this, though. For whatever reason, the Jets have not defended against the pass well in general. With Revis dedicated to the No. 1 guy, that means the No. 2 guy is going to get a lot more looks than usual, and should be a fantasy success. Last week, it was Nate Burleson. And after watching what TO did against the Steelers on Monday night when they rolled blanket coverage onto Ochocinco, you can bet he's in for another big game in Week 12 vs. the Jets.
Burleson was the top WR waiver wire add this week, but I'm not totally sure why. Buffalo does give up points in general, but is more suceptible to the running game. And as the best fantasy matchup for opposing tight ends, you can bet that will a big part of the focus for the Lions in this week's gameplan. (Hello Brandon Pettigrew! And even perhaps Tony Scheffler....) Even when the Lions air it out, Megatron will dominate the looks and endzone targets. Burleson is a low ceiling possession receiver who has just happened to score a TD in three of the last four games. He's got a less-than-100-percent backup QB throwing to him Sunday. I just don't see him as a clear cut choice here over four or five other guys floating around the wires, although I understand he's a viable bye week play. I like Mike Thomas and Jacoby Jones (who has the better matchup against the others' inept pass defense?) but my plug-in pick this week at WR, even BEFORE Steve Smith went down, was Mario Manningham. It's a risky move because players usually ramp it up in Game One of a new regime, so Dallas may not roll over again as they have in recent weeks. I still think it was an attractive play WITH Smith ahead of him, and it's absolutely irresistible with him starting. It will be much more fascinating though to see how the new sherriff affects the numerous former fantasy darlings on OFFENSE given he now has full control.
Tashard Choice is one total wildcard here, but it would be tough to guess on him this week at the Giants. I actually like him better as a higher waiver selection than Mike Goodson though even though Goodson may be a better play this week. 20 touches? Perhaps. But if neither DeAngelo Williams nor Jonathan Stewart can do anything with those, why should you expect the lesser-talented Goodson to do so, even in a supposed cake matchup? The line can't open up holes, the QB position is a mess, and they're going up against a solid if unspectacular defense that is motivated by a run to the playoffs. No no no. I'll be shocked if anyone on Carolina scores a TD, and even 60-70 all-purpose yards for Goodson seems an excessive estimate. The Bucs' DST is the better sneaky play here. Unfortunately, there really isn't much to be had on most RB waiver wires, so Goodson isn't actually far from the top of that. But why bother? He's a one-week desperation play at best, and plenty of depth guys have a better overall likelihood of production this week. In many cases, I'd go with that guy sitting at the end of your bench over Goodson, and I'd definitely go with most RB2/3s over him.
Man Crush Update:
Danny Woodhead: At Pittsburgh this week, the ultimate test. He already did it against Baltimore, but those weren't your father's Reed-in Ravens, remember? Offensive patterns have shown though that the Patriots will lean on him when the normal running game is shut down, as it should be this week. I'll say another 75 all-purpose yards. TD would be a bonus, but not shocking. Also seems he is the only Patriot with value intact post-Moss - no one would have guessed that. Fred Taylor is expected back soon, and that could put a crimp on his touches, but it would be hard to not rely on the guy at least a little (no pun intended), in both fantasy and reality.
James Starks: Unexpectedly activated from the PUP list instead of sent to IR. That makes things really interesting because it means the Packers think he has more value to them for the rest of this season than does another guy. Don't count him out yet - he could be one of the greatest dark horses of all time, but his top value is still in dynasty leagues.
Chris Ivory: Tough to truly stick with this guy, all things considered. But I'd still wait until PT plays a full game before considering bailing out on him as your #4/5 guy. He could still end up being the Mike Bell of 2010.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Buy order still in effect for Freeman, Blount and especially Mike Williams, a junior Megatron. Trade perceived equal or even slightly better assets if necessary. I'd trade Orton for Freeman, Welker or Ward for Mike Williams, and Ricky Williams for Blount. Keep an eye on Arrelious Benn as well and possibly a late season re-emergence by Kellen Winslow.
But unlike DHB, potpourri seems fitting here given the lack of a consistent theme this week. Let's call it a stew. A beef stew.
The first ingredient is quarterbacks, as in three elite ones on a bye this week. I have no idea how Jason Campbell owners will truly cope without him this week, but there are plenty of sneaky options.
David Garrard is far and away Option #1 if he's available, and he's easily a Top 10 play this week for anyone, threatening for Top 5. His last appearance was a five-touchdown gem at Dallas and he had the bye week to prepare for this week's home game against an even more generous Houston secondary. Three TDs and 250+ yards seems doable.
After him, it's at least a step or two down to the next guys, but they're all viable for a serviceable stat line. I like Josh Freeman the best, despite an unfavorable matchup, and I still say it's only going to get better going forward. Vince Young is worthwhile (albeit risky) if active as Randy Moss adds a whole new dimension to the Titans' vertical attack. Kerry Collins.... not so much.
A follower of the column recently suggested I comment on how late inactives among defensive players affect opposing offensive player matchups. It's a good concept, and one that is too often overlooked and underreported. Unfortunately, I haven't delved enough into that area of gameday research to adequately address it. But it is great food for thought if you want to spend the time to monitor it.
Questionable/doubtful/out tags on Friday's injury reports can clearly improve the outlook for individual offensive players, just as similar reports for offensive linemen have the opposite effect. If you take a little extra time to note who's in and out on Sunday, you may end up with an unheralded gem or at least scrape up an excellent tiebreaker between two otherwise even players.
Branching off of that though, I can comment generally on how some defensive players significantly affect the fantasy potential of their offensive opponents. Darrelle Revis is the best example of an individual player altering an offensive player's matchup, and he was back to his old Revis Island self last week, limiting elite talent Calvin Johnson to just one catch on only four targets. Revis' first dedicated coverage of the season was a resounding success, and every No. 1 WR playing against him for the rest of season must be started with dramatically lowered expectations.
There is a flip side to this, though. For whatever reason, the Jets have not defended against the pass well in general. With Revis dedicated to the No. 1 guy, that means the No. 2 guy is going to get a lot more looks than usual, and should be a fantasy success. Last week, it was Nate Burleson. And after watching what TO did against the Steelers on Monday night when they rolled blanket coverage onto Ochocinco, you can bet he's in for another big game in Week 12 vs. the Jets.
Burleson was the top WR waiver wire add this week, but I'm not totally sure why. Buffalo does give up points in general, but is more suceptible to the running game. And as the best fantasy matchup for opposing tight ends, you can bet that will a big part of the focus for the Lions in this week's gameplan. (Hello Brandon Pettigrew! And even perhaps Tony Scheffler....) Even when the Lions air it out, Megatron will dominate the looks and endzone targets. Burleson is a low ceiling possession receiver who has just happened to score a TD in three of the last four games. He's got a less-than-100-percent backup QB throwing to him Sunday. I just don't see him as a clear cut choice here over four or five other guys floating around the wires, although I understand he's a viable bye week play. I like Mike Thomas and Jacoby Jones (who has the better matchup against the others' inept pass defense?) but my plug-in pick this week at WR, even BEFORE Steve Smith went down, was Mario Manningham. It's a risky move because players usually ramp it up in Game One of a new regime, so Dallas may not roll over again as they have in recent weeks. I still think it was an attractive play WITH Smith ahead of him, and it's absolutely irresistible with him starting. It will be much more fascinating though to see how the new sherriff affects the numerous former fantasy darlings on OFFENSE given he now has full control.
Tashard Choice is one total wildcard here, but it would be tough to guess on him this week at the Giants. I actually like him better as a higher waiver selection than Mike Goodson though even though Goodson may be a better play this week. 20 touches? Perhaps. But if neither DeAngelo Williams nor Jonathan Stewart can do anything with those, why should you expect the lesser-talented Goodson to do so, even in a supposed cake matchup? The line can't open up holes, the QB position is a mess, and they're going up against a solid if unspectacular defense that is motivated by a run to the playoffs. No no no. I'll be shocked if anyone on Carolina scores a TD, and even 60-70 all-purpose yards for Goodson seems an excessive estimate. The Bucs' DST is the better sneaky play here. Unfortunately, there really isn't much to be had on most RB waiver wires, so Goodson isn't actually far from the top of that. But why bother? He's a one-week desperation play at best, and plenty of depth guys have a better overall likelihood of production this week. In many cases, I'd go with that guy sitting at the end of your bench over Goodson, and I'd definitely go with most RB2/3s over him.
Man Crush Update:
Danny Woodhead: At Pittsburgh this week, the ultimate test. He already did it against Baltimore, but those weren't your father's Reed-in Ravens, remember? Offensive patterns have shown though that the Patriots will lean on him when the normal running game is shut down, as it should be this week. I'll say another 75 all-purpose yards. TD would be a bonus, but not shocking. Also seems he is the only Patriot with value intact post-Moss - no one would have guessed that. Fred Taylor is expected back soon, and that could put a crimp on his touches, but it would be hard to not rely on the guy at least a little (no pun intended), in both fantasy and reality.
James Starks: Unexpectedly activated from the PUP list instead of sent to IR. That makes things really interesting because it means the Packers think he has more value to them for the rest of this season than does another guy. Don't count him out yet - he could be one of the greatest dark horses of all time, but his top value is still in dynasty leagues.
Chris Ivory: Tough to truly stick with this guy, all things considered. But I'd still wait until PT plays a full game before considering bailing out on him as your #4/5 guy. He could still end up being the Mike Bell of 2010.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Buy order still in effect for Freeman, Blount and especially Mike Williams, a junior Megatron. Trade perceived equal or even slightly better assets if necessary. I'd trade Orton for Freeman, Welker or Ward for Mike Williams, and Ricky Williams for Blount. Keep an eye on Arrelious Benn as well and possibly a late season re-emergence by Kellen Winslow.
Saturday, November 6, 2010
Dissecting DSTs
Halfway into the 2010 season, we have a pretty good idea of which teams are the closest to locks as DST plays and which teams represent the best and worst matchup plays for opposing DSTs. The trick is getting the right one in at the right time, as matchups matter more there than any other roster position. Even a stud DST like Pittsburgh may not be a smart play against an opponent that generally doesn't make many errors. Whereas a poor DST like Buffalo may actually be a good play this week, going up against Jay Cutler. He's usually good for about 10 points for any opposing DST.
If you have a stud DST, you have the luxury of using them relatively safely in most matchups and thus preserving the additional roster spot for vital depth at other positions. But if you don't, it's perfectly acceptable to stream DSTs (substituting one for another every week, including the possibility of grabbing one a full week in advance of a great matchup) or carry two that you can alternate through good matchups for a lengthy portion of the season. The latter is an especially smart play at the conclusion of the bye weeks, when you know roughly what to expect from matchups through the fantasy playoffs, and you don't need that extra roster spot to cover bye week holes. You can start mapping that out now as there may be several decent combinations still available. Peace of mind for you, and extra time to research your other needs.
A league's individual scoring setting is obviously the most critical factor in determining which DST to play when. In general though, aggressive playmaking defenses (that generate turnovers and sacks) are just as if not more valuable than conservative defenses that merely limit their opponents' scoring and yardage without making highlight defensive plays. But there is a flip side to that coin. Specifically, a team that is reliant on the big play (defensive TD) for its average value (Arizona this year) represents a major risk for any owner that elects to use them. Short of that defensive TD, teams like this are destined for failure. It's very similar to the role of the goalline RB, who will likely end up with a zero if he does not get a touchdown. Those TDs are great equalizers, but unreliable, so those players/DSTs probably should only be used when there are no other viable options available.
The same is true for playing a DST whose opponent has allowed some big plays. San Diego and New Orleans are terrific examples of statistically attractive matchups this year that you would never expect to be so. These are two of the least defensible teams, so they'll rack up yardage and points, but for some reason both have been extremely generous in allowing big plays on defense and special teams. Very risky play to go against either of these, as a negative number is well within reason. But if you're desperate for a big game, why not?
A common trap to fall into for owners prospecting for a plug-in DST is choosing one simply based on average point production. Settings, followed by opponent, have been articulated as the most critical factors, but average value is right up there. Two things dramatically affect that average: the opponents they have faced (opportunity) and the occasional huge game (25+ fantasy points). Past opponents is a given - you don't want to carelessly disregard a team that has been below average against great offenses, nor undeservedly elevate a team's potential value if they have played a string of weak opponents. As for huge games, there is at least one team per year that has one monster defensive game that skews their average value for the rest of the season. Beware of that anomaly vaulting a team into ranks it shouldn't be placed. The best example this year may be New England, who had a huge game against Miami in Week 4. The Patriots' DST has a respectable average in most leagues because of that, but has had abyssmal production in four of its seven games. Plugging them in is dangerous.
One of my biggest pet peeves in fantasy football is the fact that DSTs start at a specific value (based on not having allowed any yards or points at the start of the game) and then deteriorate from there unless enough defensive plays are made to offset the natural progression of the game. The starting total is usually a pretty good number, but the final number is usually below that. This of course affects your "live" bottom line total and those crazy projections. There has to be a better way, but it probably involves a much more complicated algorithm that isn't user-friendly or simply logical. Still would be my preference.
Perhaps my only bigger pet peeve is the requirement of using a kicker in most leagues. I accept the element of luck in fantasy football, but at the kicker position, it is just too great a factor. No amount of research can predict a ridiculously poor start by preseason favorite Garrett Hartley, a -2 by Nick Folk last week or three straight monsters by Dan Carpenter.
The problem is that matchups are hardly indicative of opportunity, because opportunity for kickers tends to be much more random. Granted, if you expect an offense to score five TDs in a game, you can count on five extra points. But that may mean no field goals, which are worth much more.
I've yet to see a formula for effectively streaming kickers, but I'm sure there are "sure-fire" theories out there, like how to win at roulette. The basic argument involves getting a kicker whose team can move the ball, but struggles in the red zone for one reason or another. And vice-versa, an opponent that allows yardage, but tightens up near the goalline. Carpenter is the flavor-of-the-month in that regard but could easily be off the radar two weeks from now. Accuracy and range are obviously good things, but opportunity is way more important, and that is too often totally unpredictable from game to game.
The credo of never drafting a kicker until the last round of your draft has never been more prevalent than this year. There are none that are ever worth a waiver selection and it would be extremely difficult to justify keeping one on your roster during his bye week. I'm certain that I'm not the only one crying out for an elimination of kickers in fantasy leagues, but I certainly would expect more of a common outcry for this, and I just don't hear much about it.
Man Crush Update:
Chris Ivory: Stinker against Pittsburgh, and now splitting touches with two other guys: Ladell Betts AND Julius Jones. Talk about writing on the wall, but I still like the guy. Sean Payton seems to love him, and is not too enamored of the seemingly malingering Pierre Thomas (although I give PT the benefit of the doubt here given he's certainly motivated to play for a contract.) Now there's a rumor that PT may be put on IR. At this point, Ivory is still just a high potential upside play that hasn't yet panned out. A 50/50 shot going forward, but probably worth a roster spot if you've got one handy.
Danny Woodhead: He sure doesn't seem like a good play, but he is. He's a better version of Kevin Faulk, the ultimate bye week replacement, and as mentioned before, has the extremely rare dual positional eligibility. He's not going away folks, even after Fred Taylor comes back. He's just about the best bet in a reliable five points every week, although he has very little high side. No better band-aid for an ailing lineup.
James Starks: Two possibilities here. He's inserted into the lineup in Week 11 and puts on a good late season run, or he disappears completely until next season. Too tough to call at this point.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Buy now if you can, specifically Blount, Freeman and Mike Williams. The Buccaneers are 5-2, plenty motivated for a run to the playoffs, and now with the pieces to do it. Freeman's probably the least of the three, but only because you usually only play one QB and he's just on the cusp of the Top 10 right now, but I like him a lot better than Cutler, for example. Hail Mary Blount appears to be panning out with authority, and has only better things ahead. And Williams is a stud-in-the-making. Watch the tape. Every week. Given the team's record and motivation, I'd even consider placing heavier expectations on the Bucs DST, but don't go too crazy. Just a possibility going forward.
P.S. Anthony Gonzalez sure lasted, didn't he? So much for that idea.
If you have a stud DST, you have the luxury of using them relatively safely in most matchups and thus preserving the additional roster spot for vital depth at other positions. But if you don't, it's perfectly acceptable to stream DSTs (substituting one for another every week, including the possibility of grabbing one a full week in advance of a great matchup) or carry two that you can alternate through good matchups for a lengthy portion of the season. The latter is an especially smart play at the conclusion of the bye weeks, when you know roughly what to expect from matchups through the fantasy playoffs, and you don't need that extra roster spot to cover bye week holes. You can start mapping that out now as there may be several decent combinations still available. Peace of mind for you, and extra time to research your other needs.
A league's individual scoring setting is obviously the most critical factor in determining which DST to play when. In general though, aggressive playmaking defenses (that generate turnovers and sacks) are just as if not more valuable than conservative defenses that merely limit their opponents' scoring and yardage without making highlight defensive plays. But there is a flip side to that coin. Specifically, a team that is reliant on the big play (defensive TD) for its average value (Arizona this year) represents a major risk for any owner that elects to use them. Short of that defensive TD, teams like this are destined for failure. It's very similar to the role of the goalline RB, who will likely end up with a zero if he does not get a touchdown. Those TDs are great equalizers, but unreliable, so those players/DSTs probably should only be used when there are no other viable options available.
The same is true for playing a DST whose opponent has allowed some big plays. San Diego and New Orleans are terrific examples of statistically attractive matchups this year that you would never expect to be so. These are two of the least defensible teams, so they'll rack up yardage and points, but for some reason both have been extremely generous in allowing big plays on defense and special teams. Very risky play to go against either of these, as a negative number is well within reason. But if you're desperate for a big game, why not?
A common trap to fall into for owners prospecting for a plug-in DST is choosing one simply based on average point production. Settings, followed by opponent, have been articulated as the most critical factors, but average value is right up there. Two things dramatically affect that average: the opponents they have faced (opportunity) and the occasional huge game (25+ fantasy points). Past opponents is a given - you don't want to carelessly disregard a team that has been below average against great offenses, nor undeservedly elevate a team's potential value if they have played a string of weak opponents. As for huge games, there is at least one team per year that has one monster defensive game that skews their average value for the rest of the season. Beware of that anomaly vaulting a team into ranks it shouldn't be placed. The best example this year may be New England, who had a huge game against Miami in Week 4. The Patriots' DST has a respectable average in most leagues because of that, but has had abyssmal production in four of its seven games. Plugging them in is dangerous.
One of my biggest pet peeves in fantasy football is the fact that DSTs start at a specific value (based on not having allowed any yards or points at the start of the game) and then deteriorate from there unless enough defensive plays are made to offset the natural progression of the game. The starting total is usually a pretty good number, but the final number is usually below that. This of course affects your "live" bottom line total and those crazy projections. There has to be a better way, but it probably involves a much more complicated algorithm that isn't user-friendly or simply logical. Still would be my preference.
Perhaps my only bigger pet peeve is the requirement of using a kicker in most leagues. I accept the element of luck in fantasy football, but at the kicker position, it is just too great a factor. No amount of research can predict a ridiculously poor start by preseason favorite Garrett Hartley, a -2 by Nick Folk last week or three straight monsters by Dan Carpenter.
The problem is that matchups are hardly indicative of opportunity, because opportunity for kickers tends to be much more random. Granted, if you expect an offense to score five TDs in a game, you can count on five extra points. But that may mean no field goals, which are worth much more.
I've yet to see a formula for effectively streaming kickers, but I'm sure there are "sure-fire" theories out there, like how to win at roulette. The basic argument involves getting a kicker whose team can move the ball, but struggles in the red zone for one reason or another. And vice-versa, an opponent that allows yardage, but tightens up near the goalline. Carpenter is the flavor-of-the-month in that regard but could easily be off the radar two weeks from now. Accuracy and range are obviously good things, but opportunity is way more important, and that is too often totally unpredictable from game to game.
The credo of never drafting a kicker until the last round of your draft has never been more prevalent than this year. There are none that are ever worth a waiver selection and it would be extremely difficult to justify keeping one on your roster during his bye week. I'm certain that I'm not the only one crying out for an elimination of kickers in fantasy leagues, but I certainly would expect more of a common outcry for this, and I just don't hear much about it.
Man Crush Update:
Chris Ivory: Stinker against Pittsburgh, and now splitting touches with two other guys: Ladell Betts AND Julius Jones. Talk about writing on the wall, but I still like the guy. Sean Payton seems to love him, and is not too enamored of the seemingly malingering Pierre Thomas (although I give PT the benefit of the doubt here given he's certainly motivated to play for a contract.) Now there's a rumor that PT may be put on IR. At this point, Ivory is still just a high potential upside play that hasn't yet panned out. A 50/50 shot going forward, but probably worth a roster spot if you've got one handy.
Danny Woodhead: He sure doesn't seem like a good play, but he is. He's a better version of Kevin Faulk, the ultimate bye week replacement, and as mentioned before, has the extremely rare dual positional eligibility. He's not going away folks, even after Fred Taylor comes back. He's just about the best bet in a reliable five points every week, although he has very little high side. No better band-aid for an ailing lineup.
James Starks: Two possibilities here. He's inserted into the lineup in Week 11 and puts on a good late season run, or he disappears completely until next season. Too tough to call at this point.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Buy now if you can, specifically Blount, Freeman and Mike Williams. The Buccaneers are 5-2, plenty motivated for a run to the playoffs, and now with the pieces to do it. Freeman's probably the least of the three, but only because you usually only play one QB and he's just on the cusp of the Top 10 right now, but I like him a lot better than Cutler, for example. Hail Mary Blount appears to be panning out with authority, and has only better things ahead. And Williams is a stud-in-the-making. Watch the tape. Every week. Given the team's record and motivation, I'd even consider placing heavier expectations on the Bucs DST, but don't go too crazy. Just a possibility going forward.
P.S. Anthony Gonzalez sure lasted, didn't he? So much for that idea.
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