The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

When you're fighting for a fantasy playoff spot, there's nothing worse than picking the wrong guy to play in a given week, and losing the match because of it.

Week 10 was arguably the signature week for this reality in 2010. Jacoby Jones and Joel Dreessen, two of my favorite plug-and-plays against a highly favorable opponent, both put up zeroes. On the other side, Mike Thomas was putting up a much more serviceable line even before his Hail Mary catch made him a top 10 guy.

In a week where former backup Michael Vick broke the all-time fantasy football record for QBs, and at least 10 quarterbacks had monster weeks, Peyton Manning was nearly invisible. He wasn't even in the top 20. But I highly doubt any of his owners DIDN'T play him. It just seems like not having Clark, Collie and Addai is hurting him a lot more in fantasy than in reality. This would be an extremely difficult guy to bench, but if he doesn't start doing more, owners are going to have to at least consider it if they have other high-end options.

I'm going against the grain here, but I'm recommending Kevin Boss as a legit TE plug-in option this week and next. Risky, but good upside. Philadelphia and Jacksonville are both generous to tight ends and Boss got his most looks of the season last week with Steve Smith out, finishing with 81 yards and a touchdown. The problem with taking a stab at Boss is that there are probably now plenty of alternatives, even with all the injuries to elite TEs. With the bye weeks over, owners are dropping their reserves, putting Boss way down the list. The more popular pick is Jermaine Gresham, and I can't exactly argue with that. He's fresh off a big game at Indianapolis and now has a home game against the Bills, who basically hand five points to every tight end as soon as the opening kickoff occurs.

I've written before about tight end matchup ratings being less reliable than others, and I'm not wavering from that. But when you come into weeks where there are a hodgepodge of options after the top four of five, like this week, it's yet another tool at your disposal. Boss is basically a Hail Mary here, but he could easily outproduce Chris Cooley, a much more conventional choice. Gresham is probably mathematically the better play, and it's easy to get excited about his fantasy playoff schedule.

Several sites offer matchup ratings, and ESPN's built-in one on the team pages (OPRK) is about the best lazy man's option ever invented. I give them credit for putting a lot of useful defaults right there for you to make an informed decision every week. (Reminder: Ignore the projections.) Unfortunately, it is reflective of the entire season, which does not necessarily reflect recent performances, either in the positive or negative.

Fantasy football is a lot about What-Have-You-Done-For-Me-Lately. Both in the subjective (the player himself) and the objective (the opponent). The best site I have found so far to give you an idea of what a guy is up against, for the upcoming weeks and for the playoffs, is fftoday.com. The specific section is

http://fftoday.com/stats/fantasystats.php?o=3&PosID=10&Side=Allowed&LeagueID=1

These graphs quickly map out the most favorable schedules by position, reflecting how opponents have fared against each position over the past five weeks. And what you want to be looking at right now are your playoff weeks. Granted, you have to get there first. But now that the bye weeks are over, you should have at least a roster spot or two to prep for the playoffs. Start getting your claims in now, because the attractive plays aren't going to last. You can always switch them later, but you might as well take a few gambles with whatever spots you've got now.

There aren't going to be many position players on the wire that are necessarily going to be better than the guys you've got for those weeks. You definitely want to stick with your studs over speculative picks, even in tough matchups, when the prize is on the line. But if you've got a marginal guy in your starting lineup, it's worth stashing another guy that might be a better option later. The guy that comes to mind for me is Robert Meachem, with plus matchups in Weeks 15 and 16 and a couple of others even before that. (Don't be fooled - Baltimore is a plus matchup this season.) With PT and Bush back soon, this attack will take off once again. I really believe the defending Superbowl champs will be gold in the fantasy playoffs. Great news for owners of Drew Brees. I also like Arrelious Benn (and especially Josh Freeman for you Matt Schaub owners. Totally worth it even if you have to trade for him.)

The wisest use of those extra spots though is to pick out your DST path. I mentioned this before, but it bears repeating now. Based on plus matchups, you can plan right now for which DSTs you want to use in each of the remaining weeks. Ideally, you will find two that you can rely on to compliment each other for the rest of the season, one one week, the other the next, and so on. Carolina is easily the most attractive potential opponent right now - almost any DST against them has an immediate fantasy advantage. They have Atlanta in Weeks 14 and 17, Arizona in Week 15, and have a match-made-in-fantasy-heaven for Steelers owners in Week 16. The Steelers are arguably the best DST play at any time, especially in common playoff weeks 14-16 (THREE home games vs. Cincy, the Jets and Carolina), but they are not going to be available in your pool.

Your focus should be on Atlanta. Arizona is actually one of the stronger DSTs this year, but mostly due to the inordinate frequency of TDs. The Cardinals' DST has scored at least one TD in five of its nine games, and twice has scored two. But hosting a seemingly attractive opponent (Seattle) last week, the Arizona DST did not score and finished in the negative. Very risky play. And their Week 16 opponent is Dallas - who knows which Cowboy offense will show up, the one that was totally deficient for the final four games of the Wade Philips era, or the new Jason Garrett model that humbled a strong DST (Giants) on the road in Week 10? I think Arizona is OK in Week 15, but that may be it.

Atlanta, on the other hand, has just one DST TD this year, but has been much more consistent as a unit even though their average is only middle-of-the-road. The Falcons follow up their Week 14 at Carolina with Week 15 at Seattle, representing arguably the best combination in those critical weeks. I think that's the team to start owning now in preparation for that.

You could also make a great case for Tampa Bay, who draws a suddenly hopeless Washington in Week 14, followed by Detroit and Seattle in Weeks 15 and 16. The Buccaneers have a good team that's in contention - they're going to play hard to the wire and each of those squads can be exploited for one reason or another.

And if you really want to reach, try Dallas. Ordinary at best on the defensive side of things this year, the originally high-ranked DST may be coming back to life under Garrett. If this unit is successfully resurrected, it's looking at Washington and Arizona in Weeks 15 and 16. Arizona might be behind only Carolina in terms of a good opponent to have.

Man Crush Update:
This section is definitely swinging heavily in favor of Tampa Bay. I like all of them, and with cause. It's a wonderful fantasy playoff schedule, so stock up while you can. This goes for redraft leagues and keeper/dynasty leagues. It's time to invest before they turn into the Colts.

Danny Woodhead had a predictably light day against the Steelers, but I still think he's a terrific depth guy to have as needed. Unfortunately, Fred Taylor is due back and the bye weeks are over. Might be worth trying to trade if you don't really need him and someone else does. But if he's back with the Pats next year, especially in the unlikely event that he retains dual positional eligibility, he's an absolutely fantastic draft pick as your #4 RB or #5 WR.

As for Chris Ivory and James Starks, the luster has significantly diminished. I'm not ready to count out either, but they both should be on waiver wires for now.