Go Go Gadget

Okay, the big news of the week is obviously Jamaal Charles. And every pundit in the world is saying it will be a Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster split going forward, and that both are worth adding.

I agree. To some extent.

I think it's correct to assume Thomas Jones probably gets more carries, and probably plugs along with a sub-4.0 per carry average, possibly sub-3.0. He's probably also the first choice at the goalline, although I firmly believe LeRon McClain will get a look there as well. McClain has done it before, and Todd Haley has little left to lose.

The problem is, there probably are not going to be that many goalline chances. The same thing that's killing Addai this year (Delone Carter notwithstanding) is what will prevent Thomas Jones from being anything close to a weekly play, or even a high upside bye week play. There is simply nothing to see here, even if he does get 15-20 carries a week. Think Jamal Lewis with Cleveland at the end of 2008. For the season, Lewis had 279 carries but never reached 100 yards in a game. He had 4 TDs, none after Week 9.

No, the guy to gamble on is McCluster, who at least has a chance to be a regular worthwhile play, especially with WR eligibility. He'll likely get as many touches as Jones (though not as many carries) and he'll definitely do more with them. He also has a good chance at the occasional return TD. I hate to say I told you so, but.....

Strangely, I'm not sure if McCluster's value is higher with Charles or without him. (Probably without.) Charles could easily put defenses on their heels, creating windows of opportunity for McCluster, especially whenever they lined up in the backfield together. Now McCluster will have fewer holes to find, but he does have the talent to burst through and rip off big gains when he does find them. Now if he could just stop fumbling. I'm convinced that one fumble is the inverse equivalent of roughly 2-3 TDs to a head coach or offensive coordinator. You're allowed to have the odd fumble as long as you're racking up the TDs. But if you're fumbling more than once every two times you hit paydirt, you won't have your dream job for long, Steve Slaton. McCluster is rapidly approaching the red zone on this one, and I'm not talking about that area of the field down near the goalline.

Another big news item, though merely a continuation of a story that began in Week One, is that Cam Newton is for real. He threw three INTs, yes, but Cutler could do that in his sleep. With no defenders on the field. And this was against Green Bay, not Arizona. He had 400+ passing yards again thanks mostly to 46 passing attempts. That just naturally adds up, and those attempts will continue to stay high if Carolina finds itself behind frequently, which is likely. And perhaps most startling of all, he led the team in both rushing attempts (10) and yards (53) on a team that still fields both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart on its active gameday roster! He has a short rushing TD in each of his two games so far. If you were lucky enough to be the guy that waiver wired him last week, congratulations on winning the 2011 fantasy football lottery. Awfully early, I must say. Now granted, we're only two weeks in, and defenses will gradually find more and more effective ways to slow the guy down a bit, but man, what a start!

What a start for Rob Gronkowski as well. He has 86 yards in each of his first two games, and has seven TD catches in his last six regular season games, failing to find the end zone just once in that span, with or without Aaron Hernandez there to steal targets. Well, Hernandez is definitely out, for 1-8 weeks depending on who you ask. I cannot imagine Gronkowski can possibly be much better than he has been, but it's good to know you can at least count on that kind of production in the interim. I'll confidently gamble on him as the best fantasy tight end play until Hernandez returns. The Hernandez targets are likely to be spread out though, so everyone gets a little bump, including Ochocinco and Woodhead. And you want a sneaky play? How about rookie offensive guard Nate Solder, who was declared as an eligible tight end on roughly 10 plays Sunday after Hernandez went down. He didn't see a target, but trust me, those are coming. So is a touchdown reception. (Too bad he doesn't have TE eligibility in any fantasy football systems.... yet.) Solder actually started his college career at Colorado as a tight end, so he knows how to catch and run, and he's taller than anyone else on the field (6'9, and 315 to boot) so a jump ball in the end zone seems like a logical option. The Patriots already have the old eligible-tight-end-trick in their playbook (remember Mike Vrabel?) so why not bust it out now when you've got an extra offensive lineman to use as a wildcard on the end, either as the best blocking tight end in history or as a sneaky outlet for the ultra-accurate Brady? If it works, defenses will be absolutely dizzy once Hernandez actually returns. I would never have imagined this scenario actually created more incentive for the Patriots to draft him, but Belichick is a mad genius and the two tight end sets worked great last year, so I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to hear that that factored into it somewhere.

Solder is not addable yet, but he would probably be well down the waiver list anyway given the alternatives right now. This is a great week to have a bad waiver position because there are a ridiculous amount of solid options, especially at wide receiver. In addition to McCluster as a wildcard wideout, you've got Eric Decker (who?) at the top of the list, but there are probably 2-3 others that could also morph into WR3s and a handful of others that at least qualify as much better than the last WR at the end of your bench. If Deion Branch is for any reason still out there in your league, he's a must add with Hernandez out. Ryan Fitzpatrick is another auto-add in the few leagues he's still around. At tight end, you can forget about Chris Cooley knocking down Fred Davis' value, and Dustin Keller is steadily trending up. It looks like Davis can be played every week with confidence, and Keller is almost back to that status as well. Roy Helu should be the top RB add over McCluster and Jones, but they're close, and you could definitely make a case for Delone Carter although dearth of critical opportunity will limit him. Javon Ringer may start to see some more carries, but I still don't like him behind Chris Johnson, and I'm not about to be fooled again by Tashard Choice (or Demarco Murray) but they will be hot adds as well. Choice, my once wonderboy, has fallen far off the lofty perch that won me my semifinal when he ran it in from 40 yards out in the closing minutes of Week 15 in 2009. You're looking at close to 10 top waiver picks in many leagues, so it will be like Christmas morning for everyone.

Sneaky Plays Scorecard
Brandon Jacobs
Predicted: 75+ yards plus one touchdown.
Actual: 67 all-purpose yards and a TD. More stifling Bradshaw's value than really making a fantasy niche for himself, but decent enough.

Ladainian Tomlinson:
Prediction: Close to 100 all-purpose yards, 50/50 shot at a TD.
Actual: 15 all-purpose yards. Really, LT?

Devery Henderson:
Prediction: 100+ yards plus 1 TD.
Actual: 103 yards and a TD. Okay, it was only three receptions, one going for a 79-yard TD, but still!

Nate Burleson:
Prediction: Just short of 100 yards, but good enough.
Actual: 93 yards. This is getting scary.

Dustin Keller:
Prediction: 50+ yards and a touchdown.
Actual: 101 yards and a TD. Better than I expected. I hope you bought low when I told you to.

I went 4-for-5, folks, a week after going 4-for-6 with a couple of sac flies. I'm not sure from where I'm receiving this divine insight, but I'm going to enjoy my hot streak while it lasts. 0-for-5 is coming soon enough.