Fitz Fits

Last week, I pointed out that Ryan Fitzpatrick had had three strong weeks in a row. I also said he shouldn't be added or played in spite of that.

Well, I was wrong.

Coming off an absolutely MONSTER week (4TDs and nearly 400 yards passing at Baltimore), it's hard not to rocket him to the top of the waiver list for not just owners of injured and bye QBs, but for EVERYONE. He's got a very good fantasy playoff schedule including home games against Cleveland and New England. Even if you aren't going to use him, you can certainly trade him. Especially to a panicking Romo or Favre owner. He's got the numbers to sell high.

Jon Kitna initially didn't look very sharp in relief of Romo on Monday Night, but he got better. And who would have thought it would take Kitna to turn Dez Bryant into a superstar? Miles Austin may see a drop, but Bryant, as he has been all season, is ready to explode regardless of who's under center. Kitna may be more likely to go to an underneath outlet, meaning Jason Witten and Felix Jones could increase their targets. Even Roy Williams, recently morphed into a short-route endzone guy, still has plenty of potential. Kitna had plenty of fantasy relevance a few seasons ago in Detroit. He's an oldie, but a goodie. He has Jacksonville in Week 8, so he's fine as a bye week replacement and a temporary plug for Romo owners.

Tavaris Jackson is a different story. If Favre sits at any point, Jackson becomes a possible play, but is a major risk. He's got plenty of good targets, but has never shown an ability to do good things with them. From a fantasy perspective, Sage Rosenfels would have been a much more desireable alternative but Jackson was obviously the better fit for the program. I wouldn't expect much.

The guy to grab if he's out there is Matt Stafford. He's back, and back to what many still expect to be his breakout season. He's got five solid receiving options on almost every play, and he's got a dynamic running back to discourage the linebackers from focusing on coverage. His upside is nearly limitless - he could easily be a top 10 guy the rest of the way. I have almost as many complimentary words about Josh Freeman.

The question on a lot of people's minds this week is what the heck is going to happen in Indianapolis, where fantasy afterthoughts become studs. In rapid succession, the Colts lost Dallas Clark, Austin Collie and Joseph Addai. No expert is willing to clearly pick Blair White or Anthony Gonzalez or Jacob Tamme over the other as the new Clark/Collie slot machine, but whoever it is will be a big asset in the bye weeks and usable beyond. I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see all three find the end zone at least once each over the next three weeks, but it's impossible to guess which one when. If I had to bet my life savings, I'd go with Gonzo over the others (as articulated last week) but I wouldn't exactly be comfortable waiting to see where the ball lands. As for the running game, it looks like a combination of Donald Brown and Mike Hart can be expected, crippling any real value of either in what is designed as a passing offense. Life savings - I go with Hart. Brown is a Gonzo-esque injury risk while Hart has proven in limited trials that he can carry the load and will likely be the first choice at the goalline. If Brown sits out, Hart becomes a top 20 play.

The other unexpected possible bonanza play this week is Jonathan Stewart. Some are even talking Top 10, but I'm not buying. With DeAngelo Williams likely out, JStew is in line to start and dominate carries. People know his elite talent, and what he did with it in short-term full-time duties last year, but he's done zilch in 2010, and the Panthers' entire running game has been stagnant. It doesn't add up to worth the risk if you have a more reliable (albeit boring) option. Obviously, he's worth playing over the usual bye week guys, but don't go benching your normal starters for him unless there's a clear separation.

I had my bonehead move of the year (there's always at least one) when I dropped Kenny Britt just before last week. I looked it as:

1) inconsistency/drops
2) no Vince Young at QB
3) possible discipline due to the bar fight
4) facing top defense San Diego in Week 8, followed by a bye.

Figured he'd still be out there after, when I'd be more likely to play a risk/reward WR. But why roster him until then? Because he's a beast, that's why! You just never know when one of these guys is going to show up, which makes it especially difficult to wait around for them. When they do.... oh baby! Tough to decide if it's more frustrating to have kept a guy forever that never pans out, or to have briefly speculated on and then dropped a guy that pans out immediately thereafter.

As a sidenote here, I'll place part of the blame on Rotoworld, which is bipolar on some guys like Britt (he's great, he sucks, he's great, he sucks) and ridiculously loyal to their original assessment on others. I actually blame myself for listening to them 90 percent of the time, but I must also say they are the best service I've seen so far. I'm planning a later column to offer my opinion on several fantasy web sites, but in brief, Rotoworld is my favorite. My apologies to the CBS guys, but that one's a disaster in terms of insight/reliability. And ESPN's projections seem to be more designed to generate confusion and debate more than to deliver fair expectations, sometimes not even matching up with their own textual "What they're saying..." And yet, I'm still a sucker for being disappointed when my projected win fails to materialize. Admittedly, it's a heck of a lot easier than writing my own projections!

Man Crush Update:
Chris Ivory: The more pessimistic the outlook on Pierre Thomas, the better it is for Chris Ivory. PT is now back in a walking boot and on crutches, and is tentatively expected to return in Week 11. I'll believe it when I see it. Ivory hasn't been great outside of one week, but as he gets more comfortable, he'll get better. The bigger problem is actually the New Orleans offense as a whole, which hasn't been the machine it has been in the past. There are definitely fewer scoring opportunities.

Danny Woodhead: Quiet week at San Diego, but the Chargers have the stingiest yardage defense in the league. I still love him as the ultimate fantasy dream: a dual threat with dual positional eligibility. Unfortunately, his remaining matches in the bye weeks including two more tough opponents in Minnesota and Pittsburgh. After that, his matchups improve, but his possible fantasy usage will be somewhat diminished.

James Starks: Looks like I'll have to eat my words on this one, but there's still a chance, albeit significantly slimmer. He may not be ready to contribute this year after all.