Secret Weapons

Three long months have finally paid off - we're about to enter the fantasy playoffs. Some teams will have gotten there through pure skill - a stud lineup that needs no substitutes. But most will have at least one or two holes that require critical decision-making over the next few weeks. So who can you trust to do the job? In no particular order:

1. Any DST facing the Eagles. No doubt, the Buccaneers are nothing special, but they should be close to that when they host the Eagles in Week 14. Turnovers are a way of life for the Eagles, with or without Vick, and turnovers yield defensive TD opportunities. Bryce Brown may actually be a better straight-ahead power runner than McCoy, but he's way more raw in terms of pass catching, pass protection, and ball security. And the only healthy threat at wideout is Jeremy Maclin. This team is not going to move the ball much, and they're going to give it away with regularity. The Buccaneers will be a fine play in Week 14, the Bengals even better in Week 15, and you might even consider the Redskins in Week 16, although that's a pretty big gamble for the championship game.

2. Bryce Brown. It sounds contradictory to the above, but he's clearly effective as a runner and will get a ton of touches simply because the team has few other options. Volume equals value.

3. Knowshon Moreno. Also a volume play, albeit in a much much better offense. He had 20 carries and four catches last week after having just eight carries and one catch total prior to that this season! He should have a monster game in store at Oakland in Week 14. At Baltimore in Week 15 should be tougher but still reasonable, and he closes with a home game vs. Cleveland. With Hillman still lacking the necessary veteran savvy for a playoff-bound squad, Moreno should continue to dominate touches. At least until he fumbles, misses an assignment, or gets injured, three very real possibilities for this talented but enigmatic running back. 

4.Daniel Thomas. There's not a ton of upside here, but he should be at least reliable if you're in a pinch. He's used in a pretty even split with Reggie Bush, and gets the goalline touches. I don't like him in Week 14 (vs. SF) but you could do far worse in Weeks 15 and 16 in home games against bottom-feeding rush defenses in Jacksonville and Buffalo.

5. Colin Kaepernick. The guard has changed. This guy throws with authority and has no problem running the ball. Just two games into his tenure as a starter, he's still just scratched the surface. He's not going to be RGIII, but he'll be as good as any of the non-elite QBs. It's too bad he's on the road for Week 15 (at New England) - a home game against the Pats might be a semifinal-winner for owners.
\
6. Josh Freeman. He's not running nearly as much as he is able to, but he is becoming a better NFL quarterback, and he has the receiving weapons to maintain strong fantasy value. He gets the burnable Eagles at home in Week 14, is facing a potential shootout at New Orleans in Week 15, and closes at home with the Rams. I like his chances.

7. New England's passing game. A month ago, I was hesitant about this one, even though the Patriots had two home games before closing with an easy one at Jacksonville in Week 16. My concerns were that the home opponents were the elite defenses of Houston and San Francisco. But the Texans' secondary has proved highly highly vulnerable recently, allowing 800 yards and 6 TDs to QBs over the last two games. With the Texans still boasting a strong rush defense (and a robust offense), Week 14 should be a fully-loaded air attack for New England. You'd play Brady and Welker regardless, but you can boost your confidence in Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Lloyd and even Julian Edelman. San Francisco is a little tougher in Week 15, but their increased-tempo offense and run-stopping ability (just like Houston) again favors the pass for New England, especially in the red zone. Their is a potential pitfall in Week 16 against Jacksonville because New England has a good chance to be up early and may want to re-assert their dedication to the run after tough draws the previous two weeks.

8. Ryan Broyles. Titus Young is in the doghouse and ain't coming out anytime soon. Broyles is a crisp route-runner with high volume potential. The offense (and Matt Stafford) looked much better with Broyles than with Young. Shootouts in Week 14 (at Green Bay) and Week 16 (home vs. Atlanta) bode well. Expectations should be tempered for a Week 15 match at Arizona, but he still should see enough targets to be a solid play.

9. Cecil Shorts, Justin Blackmon and Marcedes Lewis. The team appears rejuvenated with Chad Henne aggressively chucking the rock. Even without MJD, the coaching staff seems unfortunately committed to stick a balanced rush-pass attack. But Henne has been highly effective with his limited attempts, 90 percent going to those three guys. The Jaguars get high-upside home dates against the mailing-it-in Jets in Week 14 and the pliable Patriots defense in Week 16, and they don't have to travel far for what should be a competitve game in Week 15 at Miami. With virtually no travel, they're set up for an even stronger fantasy finish.

This will likely be my last column of the year - good luck to everyone in the fantasy playoffs!